Metrics of change

[edcunited1878]

Numbers without context mean nothing. It's really difficult to assess any type of insights or takeaways as they pertain to United, compared to themselves YoY or whatever. And not exactly clear of what those labels/categories mean or account for.

From the little time I've tried to understand the charts, United are able to attack in balance between transition and positional at a decently high rate (collectively) that's behind Liverpool and City, but in line or better than the others. And while United's press isn't as good as Arsenal, City, or Liverpool, their offensive transition success is good. As in, the more effective your high press, theoretically you transition into offensive or towards scoring goal more and hopefully more successfully.

We aren't close to the half way point and haven't played everybody in the league, so comparing yourself to the entire league is kind of pointless. Why don't you compare yourself and those metrics to the teams you've played or against common opponents from the teams ahead of United in the current table.

 

[bosnian_red]

I prefer looking at this. Open play xG for and against. Take into account fixture difficulty and those first 2 games being a different team pretty much, and I think it's very encouraging. And there's been huge progression every month.

Set pieces of course are a big part of the game, and it's one for and against that we have to improve massively in. But that just requires the right set piece coach. In terms of what a manager controls the most, open play, it's great.

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[Adam-Utd]

Not sure.

Looking at how the guy who did the graphics has analysed build-up before, he seems to look at a mix of a) the percentage of possessions beginning in your own third that reach the opposition third, b) pass completion percentage outside the final third and c) the average length of the passes in those build up sequences.

From those perspectives it's worth noting that of the teams mentioned we've had the second lowest average possession, attempted the fewest passes per game and had the second highest percentage of long passes (30+ yards). I also wonder if we have a tendency to build from defence into midfield only to then play the ball back into defence again before we break into the opposition third.

At a guess I would think those must be the sort of factors that would drag that rating down. Plus you have to keep in mind that we've been better in recent games than we were earlier in the season, so those early games could be dragging us down somewhat.

Are these stats for all our league games? The issue is we've been a mishmash of styles, performance levels and personnel in the first 11 games. The way we played in the opening 2 games vs Brighton/Brentford is different to how we played against Liverpool/Arsenal and Southampton/Leicester, and finally they're all different to how we've played against Everton/Newcastle/Spurs/Chelsea.

It's too small a sample size at the minute because we've not really settled on who we are as a team yet. We've gone through several phases already, we didn't have all our signings in the opening couple of games and the players barely looked arsed, so those first 2 games were pretty much a write off but they still effect our stats. Then we switched to a defence-first approach to try grind out some ugly wins. And maybe since Everton/Newcastle/Spurs/Chelsea we've started to see a little bit of a ETH system with the possession numbers looking better, pressing looking better, playing from the back and through midfield much better.

Yeah I guess the 3 losses could be dragging the score down. It just seems WAY lower than everybody else when I don't feel like our build up play is that much worse?. How can people really say our build up play is '55' worse than Chelsea

I've never seen us be able to keep and recycle the ball this well, not since Fergie at least.

Anyway, we're definitely improving that's for sure.

 

[Pronewbie]

Quality post from one of the noobs. If this isn’t a positive metric of change I don’t know what is?!

Not only that, it’s not like we were playing LVG-style football. I think the new signings and especially Varane have been instrumental in that change. The difference between last year’s CB pairing and Varane-Martinez when it comes to building up the play from the back is night and day. We might have to come back for Timber next year because of Varane’s injury issues.

 

[Pronewbie]

I prefer looking at this. Open play xG for and against. Take into account fixture difficulty and those first 2 games being a different team pretty much, and I think it's very encouraging. And there's been huge progression every month.

Set pieces of course are a big part of the game, and it's one for and against that we have to improve massively in. But that just requires the right set piece coach. In terms of what a manager controls the most, open play, it's great.

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Yep, City and Arsenal are fun to watch for neutrals. Liverpool are enjoyable too for United fans as they‘re struggling.

 

[LordSpud]

The thing is, and this is purely hypothetical due to the fact other results would have been different too, but if you take away the freak Brentford and City results then its likely we are in the mix for the best defence so far with least conceded goals, couple that with the fact that we should really have been beaten Brentford and Brighton and then we are joint 2nd with City and its all hunky dory.

What we've done since those 2 games is nothing short of amazing for me and I am actually enjoying watching us play at the moment!

 

[TheRedDevil'sAdvocate]

I saw this yesterday and i thought it was interesting.

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It shows how important Martinez is in our build-up. Casemiro already looks to be a massive upgrade in our midfield. Malacia also offers a lot of heavy-lifting in the first 2/3 of the pitch. In general, the new signings seem to be doing their fair share in our attempt to modernize our style. Not exactly the competition we want to be in, but 7/10 most influential players is quite remarkable.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I saw this yesterday and i thought it was interesting.

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It shows how important Martinez is in our build-up. Casemiro already looks to be a massive upgrade in our midfield. Malacia also offers a lot of heavy-lifting in the first 2/3 of the pitch. In general, the new signings seem to be doing their fair share in our attempt to modernize our style. Not exactly the competition we want to be in, but 7/10 most influential players is quite remarkable.

The ratio of red to purple in Ronaldo’s data tells a story.

 

[Grande]

I prefer looking at this. Open play xG for and against. Take into account fixture difficulty and those first 2 games being a different team pretty much, and I think it's very encouraging. And there's been huge progression every month.

Set pieces of course are a big part of the game, and it's one for and against that we have to improve massively in. But that just requires the right set piece coach. In terms of what a manager controls the most, open play, it's great.

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I think at this point, the progress is as interesting as the season total, becausewe know where we came from and we knew what we were in for. A very simple statistic that is fairly significant and easy to accumulate, is the shots on target for vs against. If we split this season in half (8+8 games) and compare with the last 8 games of previous season, this is the picture:

Last Rangnik games: 36-39
First Ten Hag games: 35-31
Last Ten Hag games: 61-23

I thought the Euro games could skew the picture, so here’s PL only (5+5 games, and 5 last games under Rangnik):

Rangnik: 21-27 (incl Chel and Ars)
Early TH: 22-23 (incl Livp)
Recent TH: 30-18 (incl City, Spurs, Chel)

Looking only at Euro L, the early vs recent games against Omonia and Sheriff:

First two games: 12-6
Last two games: 23-1

Now, a small divergence between SoT for v against means practically nothing. Accumulated, these numbers give a very strong picture of progress, implying that Ten Hag managed to lift us a little bit already from the start, but the big changes in quality of play, we are seeing just this last month. Which I think confirms the eye test.

 

[Hammondo]

Yeah I guess the 3 losses could be dragging the score down. It just seems WAY lower than everybody else when I don't feel like our build up play is that much worse?. How can people really say our build up play is '55' worse than Chelsea

I've never seen us be able to keep and recycle the ball this well, not since Fergie at least.

Anyway, we're definitely improving that's for sure.

Guess it depends if the final third counts towards build-up, because we are really bad at that part.

 

[cyberman]

Guess it depends if the final third counts towards build-up, because we are really bad at that part.

I’ll argue against this. We are very good at keeping the ball in and around the oppositions box under Ten Hag.

 

[Borys]

Not sure what you can draw from these good or bad but they're interesting graphics I think.

Interesting graphic for teams that have a defined style, like City or Arsenal. Chelsea and us are in transition, so it's only worth monitoring trends for those parameters.

Do I read this right that Liverpool are a superb team but can't defend set pieces?
Tottenham build up play looks suspiciously high, but they do get a lot of goals from set pieces and transitions so that is indeed an interesting way of looking at things.
I take it source is twitter?

I prefer looking at this. Open play xG for and against. Take into account fixture difficulty and those first 2 games being a different team pretty much, and I think it's very encouraging. And there's been huge progression every month.


Set pieces of course are a big part of the game, and it's one for and against that we have to improve massively in. But that just requires the right set piece coach. In terms of what a manager controls the most, open play, it's great.

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That looks extremely good considering the opposition we faced so far. Also shows total ManCity domination (no shit).

3 games running average for xG/ xGA is sth I'd be looking at as a metric of progress, although not sure if anyone is calculating it.

 

[sullydnl]

Interesting graphic for teams that have a defined style, like City or Arsenal. Chelsea and us are in transition, so it's only worth monitoring trends for those parameters.

Do I read this right that Liverpool are a superb team but can't defend set pieces?
Tottenham build up play looks suspiciously high, but they do get a lot of goals from set pieces and transitions so that is indeed an interesting way of looking at things.
I take it source is twitter?

Yep, from this account on twitter.

https://mobile.twitter.com/markrstats

He knows it's flawed as well but it's a nice visual way of representing different teams' relative strengths/weaknesses, I think.

On Liverpool, it would be interesting to see the same thing from last season and whether their set piece and transition defence was better. I would assume it was and that points to a lot of their defensive issues this season.

 

[Borys]

Yep, from this account on twitter.

https://mobile.twitter.com/markrstats

He knows it's flawed as well but it's a nice visual way of representing different teams' relative strengths/weaknesses, I think.

On Liverpool, it would be interesting to see the same thing from last season and whether their set piece and transition defence was better. I would assume it was and that points to a lot of their defensive issues this season.

It's a nice idea for sure, especially if could select for which games/period you want to see it. Which I guess he can, but he will not be showing this stuff that detailed.

Will be interesting to see how that changes after next 5 games.

 

[Hammondo]

I’ll argue against this. We are very good at keeping the ball in and around the oppositions box under Ten Hag.

Well we give away constantly as we are so impatient.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

70% win percentage is probably the best metric of change we could hope for.

Any others? We seem to be winning the ball much higher up the pitch than in recent seasons. Also more tackles in general. I’d also be very curious to know if any of the metrics to do with fitness (distance covered etc) have improved.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Not sure what you can draw from these good or bad but they're interesting graphics I think.

Only just seen this. Not great really. Have we improved since then?

 

[justsomebloke]

70% win percentage is probably the best metric of change we could hope for.

Any others? We seem to be winning the ball much higher up the pitch than in recent seasons. Also more tackles in general. I’d also be very curious to know if any of the metrics to do with fitness (distance covered etc) have improved.

Remove the first two games from our record, and we're at 2.3 points per game so far - or 76% of possible points taken. That doesn't seem like an unreasonable benchmark moving forward.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Remove the first two games from our record, and we're at 2.3 points per game so far - or 76% of possible points taken. That doesn't seem like an unreasonable benchmark moving forward.

That’s an 87 point season!

 

[sullydnl]

Only just seen this. Not great really. Have we improved since then?

Don't see updated graphics but we've only played about five league games since the end of October anyway.

 

[Bastian]

Remove the first two games from our record, and we're at 2.3 points per game so far - or 76% of possible points taken. That doesn't seem like an unreasonable benchmark moving forward.

Then we'd have 23 goals scored in 14 games, averaging 1.64 per game, while conceding 1 per game. I don't know our xG for and against, but I'd say the margins are too tight for a continued progression like this. We're the lowest scoring team in the top half. Only so long that can yield results.

But the trajectory post Brentford has definitely been promising.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Don't see updated graphics but we've only played about five league games since the end of October anyway.

So not far off 50% of the data used to generate those tweets?

 

[El Zoido]

Remove the first two games from our record, and we're at 2.3 points per game so far - or 76% of possible points taken. That doesn't seem like an unreasonable benchmark moving forward.

We’d be second in the league if we disregarded the first two games.

 

[sullydnl]

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[Pogue Mahone]

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Nice!

Although that blip of extreme improvement under Rangnick is interesting.

 

[ArmchairCritic]

Nice!

Although that blip of extreme improvement under Rangnick is interesting.

As much as I have tried to delete last season from my memory, I think he had a pretty easy fixture list after he picked up the job from Carrick. Everyone pretty much phoned the season in after the 2nd leg vs Atletico Madrid.

 

[bringbackbebe]

Nice!

Although that blip of extreme improvement under Rangnick is interesting.

The purple patch for Rangnick was against easier teams when we were squeezing out 1-0 results. The moment we started playing tougher opposition, he didn't perform much better than Ole. We weren't significantly better footballing wise either & don't recollect an instance where we won against the odds last year under RR.

 

[Stack]

This is a small thing I look at which has been consistent for years. Its nothing surprising but the top 2 or 3 teams always have a GD thats quite a bit higher than everyone else. Once ours starts hitting double figures I feel like we will be really pushing for the title again. Obvious I know but its something I notice every table

 

[DSG]

Then we'd have 23 goals scored in 14 games, averaging 1.64 per game, while conceding 1 per game. I don't know our xG for and against, but I'd say the margins are too tight for a continued progression like this. We're the lowest scoring team in the top half. Only so long that can yield results.

But the trajectory post Brentford has definitely been promising.

This. Need to score and create much more.

 

[DSG]

This is a small thing I look at which has been consistent for years. Its nothing surprising but the top 2 or 3 teams always have a GD thats quite a bit higher than everyone else. Once ours starts hitting double figures I feel like we will be really pushing for the title again. Obvious I know but its something I notice every table

We are currently outperforming our GD results wise. Should be lower in the table.

 

[kthanksbye]

I think the metrics are clear when you look at the areas we have quality in, apart from the position in the table and points, it's clear that since Varane, Martinez, Casemiro and Eriksen we've improved at the back and in midfield, ETH is able to extract the best of the quality players, our front line needs work and at the moment only Rashford and Bruno are playing well, which is clearly reflected in the number of goals we score.

 

[DSG]

The purple patch for Rangnick was against easier teams when we were squeezing out 1-0 results. The moment we started playing tougher opposition, he didn't perform much better than Ole. We weren't significantly better footballing wise either & don't recollect an instance where we won against the odds last year under RR.

Actually, RR was the worst manager for United, results wise, since O’Farrell in ‘72….

 

[DSG]

I think the metrics are clear when you look at the areas we have quality in, apart from the position in the table and points, it's clear that since Varane, Martinez, Casemiro and Eriksen we've improved at the back and in midfield, ETH is able to extract the best of the quality players, our front line needs work and at the moment only Rashford and Bruno are playing well, which is clearly reflected in the number of goals we score.

Unless ETH solves our scoring issues, we are going to struggle 2nd half of the season. He’s been great in so many ways, but we really struggle to finish chances.

 

[kthanksbye]

Unless ETH solves our scoring issues, we are going to struggle 2nd half of the season. He’s been great in so many ways, but we really struggle to finish chances.

There's only so much he can do with one player in form, Antony's first season in the league, Martial I don't even know is getting a run of games after how long. Then we're down to Garnacho, Elanga who are young, and Sancho who's absent. There's very little ETH can do about this, on the contrary, the fact that we're still scoring and winning games, is already a huge credit to ETH.

 

[DSG]

There's only so much he can do with one player in form, Antony's first season in the league, Martial I don't even know is getting a run of games after how long. Then we're down to Garnacho, Elanga who are young, and Sancho who's absent. There's very little ETH can do about this, on the contrary, the fact that we're still scoring and winning games, is already a huge credit to ETH.

Huge credit to him, no doubt. I do think he has to shoulder some responsibility for the lack of form of his attackers. Goal scorers get hot when they have easy chances. Easy chances are created by smooth movement and passing. Is it 100% his fault? No. But the xG isn’t particularly good… Eye test shows that we are better than the xG, but still, goals win games. He’d be the first to say that.

 

[bringbackbebe]

Actually, RR was the worst manager for United, results wise, since O’Farrell in ‘72….

Just did a look up on the win%. You'd have to go back to Herbert Bamlett '31 for that!

Rangnick: 35.48%
O'Farrel: 37.04 %
Herbert Bamlett: 31.32%

 

[Thiagoal]

There's only so much he can do with one player in form, Antony's first season in the league, Martial I don't even know is getting a run of games after how long. Then we're down to Garnacho, Elanga who are young, and Sancho who's absent. There's very little ETH can do about this, on the contrary, the fact that we're still scoring and winning games, is already a huge credit to ETH.

While individual players are clearly very important, there is a lot of improvement we should be doing as a team to score more goals. Look at Brentford last night sticking three past Liverpool (could have been 6). No one can tell me their attackers are any better than ours but their patterns of play and full back involvement sliced through Liverpool’s defence!

 

[Stack]

We are currently outperforming our GD results wise. Should be lower in the table.

Absolutely. However we are slowly looking more capable of getting that GD up to title challenging spots. The top 4-6 teams typically get +20 GD by the end of the season.

 

[Sunny Jim]

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I thought we would improve our attacking game first. It seems that ETH sealed our goal though. xGA below 1 is an incredible result.

 

[Sunny Jim]

That’s an 87 point season!

and yet with 87 points we would have won the title only twice in the last 9 season . And only once convincingly (Leicester with 81 points, City with 86 points). the standards of EPL are just crazy.