More often than not, Mourinho can be trusted with his comments about how his squad will evolve.
Previously, he indicated the following, basically (if I recall correctly) -
1) First season, 4 signings will come in. This happened.
2) Second season, 3 signings in. That happened.
3) Evolution over revolution (not too many signings). This has been happening.
4) Players in his plans will stay unless they are determined to leave (necessitating an unexpected replacement). This is what happened with Mkhitaryan (Sanchez signing as a swap deal).
5) He tends to freeze out players he doesn't want to stay (i.e. Depay, Schneiderlin, Schweinsteiger, Rooney)
6) He seems to use the loan system as predominantly a make or break type scenario. However, if the loans are affected by factors like injuries and the player is young/talented enough, he'll give the player another chance on loan again.
7) Last Summer, he promised an academy promotion who'd get a decent amount of games. This was meant to be Pereira but ended up being McTominay.
8) We would sign a Brazilian this Summer. It happened with Fred (and potentially more on the way).
This is what he has pretty much said about this coming season. I may well be wrong so let me know if so -
1) 3/4 players to sign. This includes a Carrick replacement for definite (i.e. Fred), a Fellaini replacement if he leaves (i.e. an AM) and 2 other areas of the pitch. He said we're fine in attack so we can assume these are defenders (i.e. Dalot at RB and a CD - not a LB as I'll explain later).
2) Players who aren't playing enough will want to leave (i.e. Blind and Darmian are basically frozen out).
3) He has said that Fosu Mensah, Tuanzebe and Mitchell will all return from loans and go into the squad. However, in line with his make or break policy, TFM and Tuanzebe didn't impress sufficiently but are talented enough to get another chance on loan, especially given Axel's injury and Palace's change in manager affecting TFM. Mitchell, however, did well so I think he'll stick with us.
4) Pogba and Martial are staying. However, given his rule about letting go players who are desperate to leave, I believe he has irons in the fire if they do go (SMS and Bale/Willian for example).
5) He was adamant that we're sufficiently covered in attack. However, this was before Zlatan left (hence links to Arnautovic, Smolov etc. but I don't think these will happen).
6) Ashley Young will play basically 50 games, i.e. is first choice. Luke Shaw will stay.
7) He was unhappy with Andreas Pereira not staying in and around the squad. I believe this will trigger the 'break' in the make or break loan system. Pereira will leave.
8) 1 academy player will make their breakthrough like McTominay did last season and will get significant game time. I'm not including Mitchell in this. Looking at gaps in the squad, I feel this will be on the RW (as CM was lacking in numbers before McTominay's promotion).
9) Jose thinks Fellaini will stay. However, this quote was in April when it did seem likely but the current consensus is that he's leaving.
Ok, hope you're following me so far and can understand the logic behind my interpretations. The next part is looking at the media chatter -
1) Most Mourinho era signings are well signposted in the papers (Pogba, Ibrahimovic, Mkhitaryan, Lindelöf, Matic). This is presumably the usual tactical approach in negotiation.
2) If there's a buyout clause, players sign under the radar (Dalot, Bailly)
3) The big exception to point 1 was Lukaku with Morata as a smokescreen. However, this was kept quiet in cooperation with Everton because they wanted to get a lot of transfer activity underway without clubs knowing they'd received big money for Lukaku.
4) Our biggest links now are with Alderweireld/Lenglet at CD, Alex Sandro basically the only LB target, Talisca/Milinkovic-Savic at AM and Bale/Griezmann/Willian/Ronaldo at RW.
5) Due to the distractions of the World Cup and English transfer window shutting earlier, United have probably acted much swifter this year. Therefore, I feel that United won't take chances in missing out and much of what we're doing has already entered the media spotlight. In previous years, some of our major targets wouldn't be out in the public domain in early June because we had more time to do the deals so could get away with initiating them later.
Therefore, let me know make some conclusions based on the above -
1) We will sign one more defender after Dalot.
2) This won't be a left back as only Sandro is seriously rumoured and latest reports indicate he's renewing his contract with Juventus. Jose indicated Young will be first choice, Shaw will stay and be given yet another chance to prove himself and Mitchell will be brought into the first team squad to add more competition. Also, Dalot can also play LB.
3) This defender will be a CD. As buyout clause buys are usually kept secret, Lenglet (who allegedly has a 35M buyout clause) is merely a smokescreen to worry Spurs into selling us wantaway Alderweireld for a reasonable price. He will be the quality passing defender that Jose expected Lindelöf to be.
4) Talisca will sign as the AM. Besiktas' coach hinted a deal was agreed in January (probably provisionally in case Fellaini leaves). Mourinho is a confirmed admirer of the player and he's much improved in the last couple of years with similar characteristics to Marouane.
5) Anything else will depend on realistic availability and if our players insist on a move. Milinkovic-Savic is a target but only if Pogba attracts an offer bigger than we signed him for (which, realistically, would only happen if he has a great World Cup and PSG sort out their FFP issues). Martial is the other big uncertainty but doesn't currently seem to have any really appealing suitors and likely won't command a tempting enough fee. The only realistic possibilities seem to be Chelsea, Bayern or Juve. These all seem to be involved in a bit of a waiting game as Chelsea's hierarchy appear to admire Martial but will want to run the possibility by their new manager (assuming Conte is replaced by Blanc/Enrique/Sarri). Bayern also might be waiting to spend the newly arrived Douglas Costa money from Juve and for Kovac to assess his squad. Juventus are apparently trying to sell Higuaín to Chelsea which could free up funds for Martial. So there could be a bit of a player merry-go-round; especially with Bale's future up in the air and unlikely to be decided while Madrid don't have a coach. Griezmann looks destined for Barca if they can free up funds alongside the other needs of their squad. The situations regarding Ronaldo, Mbappe and Neymar are all unclear too but any moves would likely just take place between PSG and Madrid and are probably dependent on Madrid's new coach and the ramifications of PSG's FFP struggles. Personally, I think all rumoured marquee names will stay or go elsewhere. The only one I see as a remote possibility is some sort of Willian/Martial exchange.
6) Most fans here will be ultimately unsatisfied with the above due to the lack of a huge name acquisition and no new LB. However, the outlay will still be between 150M and 200M (Approx figures of 160M by my reckoning - Dalot 20M, Fred 50M, Alderweireld 50M, Talisca 40M).
7) Tahith Chong will be the RW promoted.
8) Our strongest 11, to be played in the biggest games, would consist of a diamond midfield with 2 up front. However, don't be surprised to see Talisca playing from the RW slot occasionally and cutting in on his favoured left foot.
9) Dalot will already be better than expected and be 1st choice RB.
10) Fred and Talisca will surprise a lot of people with how good they are.
This would leave us with the following squad -
GK: De Gea, Romero, Pereira
RB: Dalot, Valencia
LB: Young, Shaw, Mitchell
CD: Alderweireld, Bailly, Smalling, Rojo, Jones, Lindelöf
DM: Matic, McTominay
CM: Pogba, Fred, Herrera
AM: Talisca, Lingard
RW: Mata, Chong
LW: Sanchez, Martial
ST: Lukaku, Rashford
The 'best' 11 would be De Gea; Dalot, Young, Alderweireld, Bailly; Matic, Pogba, Fred; Talisca; Lukaku, Sanchez
I realise there's a lot of extrapolation here but I feel Jose's history at United has been consistent and we can expect him to be true to form. Hopefully I've explained my rationale sufficiently. What do you reckon?
Previously, he indicated the following, basically (if I recall correctly) -
1) First season, 4 signings will come in. This happened.
2) Second season, 3 signings in. That happened.
3) Evolution over revolution (not too many signings). This has been happening.
4) Players in his plans will stay unless they are determined to leave (necessitating an unexpected replacement). This is what happened with Mkhitaryan (Sanchez signing as a swap deal).
5) He tends to freeze out players he doesn't want to stay (i.e. Depay, Schneiderlin, Schweinsteiger, Rooney)
6) He seems to use the loan system as predominantly a make or break type scenario. However, if the loans are affected by factors like injuries and the player is young/talented enough, he'll give the player another chance on loan again.
7) Last Summer, he promised an academy promotion who'd get a decent amount of games. This was meant to be Pereira but ended up being McTominay.
8) We would sign a Brazilian this Summer. It happened with Fred (and potentially more on the way).
This is what he has pretty much said about this coming season. I may well be wrong so let me know if so -
1) 3/4 players to sign. This includes a Carrick replacement for definite (i.e. Fred), a Fellaini replacement if he leaves (i.e. an AM) and 2 other areas of the pitch. He said we're fine in attack so we can assume these are defenders (i.e. Dalot at RB and a CD - not a LB as I'll explain later).
2) Players who aren't playing enough will want to leave (i.e. Blind and Darmian are basically frozen out).
3) He has said that Fosu Mensah, Tuanzebe and Mitchell will all return from loans and go into the squad. However, in line with his make or break policy, TFM and Tuanzebe didn't impress sufficiently but are talented enough to get another chance on loan, especially given Axel's injury and Palace's change in manager affecting TFM. Mitchell, however, did well so I think he'll stick with us.
4) Pogba and Martial are staying. However, given his rule about letting go players who are desperate to leave, I believe he has irons in the fire if they do go (SMS and Bale/Willian for example).
5) He was adamant that we're sufficiently covered in attack. However, this was before Zlatan left (hence links to Arnautovic, Smolov etc. but I don't think these will happen).
6) Ashley Young will play basically 50 games, i.e. is first choice. Luke Shaw will stay.
7) He was unhappy with Andreas Pereira not staying in and around the squad. I believe this will trigger the 'break' in the make or break loan system. Pereira will leave.
8) 1 academy player will make their breakthrough like McTominay did last season and will get significant game time. I'm not including Mitchell in this. Looking at gaps in the squad, I feel this will be on the RW (as CM was lacking in numbers before McTominay's promotion).
9) Jose thinks Fellaini will stay. However, this quote was in April when it did seem likely but the current consensus is that he's leaving.
Ok, hope you're following me so far and can understand the logic behind my interpretations. The next part is looking at the media chatter -
1) Most Mourinho era signings are well signposted in the papers (Pogba, Ibrahimovic, Mkhitaryan, Lindelöf, Matic). This is presumably the usual tactical approach in negotiation.
2) If there's a buyout clause, players sign under the radar (Dalot, Bailly)
3) The big exception to point 1 was Lukaku with Morata as a smokescreen. However, this was kept quiet in cooperation with Everton because they wanted to get a lot of transfer activity underway without clubs knowing they'd received big money for Lukaku.
4) Our biggest links now are with Alderweireld/Lenglet at CD, Alex Sandro basically the only LB target, Talisca/Milinkovic-Savic at AM and Bale/Griezmann/Willian/Ronaldo at RW.
5) Due to the distractions of the World Cup and English transfer window shutting earlier, United have probably acted much swifter this year. Therefore, I feel that United won't take chances in missing out and much of what we're doing has already entered the media spotlight. In previous years, some of our major targets wouldn't be out in the public domain in early June because we had more time to do the deals so could get away with initiating them later.
Therefore, let me know make some conclusions based on the above -
1) We will sign one more defender after Dalot.
2) This won't be a left back as only Sandro is seriously rumoured and latest reports indicate he's renewing his contract with Juventus. Jose indicated Young will be first choice, Shaw will stay and be given yet another chance to prove himself and Mitchell will be brought into the first team squad to add more competition. Also, Dalot can also play LB.
3) This defender will be a CD. As buyout clause buys are usually kept secret, Lenglet (who allegedly has a 35M buyout clause) is merely a smokescreen to worry Spurs into selling us wantaway Alderweireld for a reasonable price. He will be the quality passing defender that Jose expected Lindelöf to be.
4) Talisca will sign as the AM. Besiktas' coach hinted a deal was agreed in January (probably provisionally in case Fellaini leaves). Mourinho is a confirmed admirer of the player and he's much improved in the last couple of years with similar characteristics to Marouane.
5) Anything else will depend on realistic availability and if our players insist on a move. Milinkovic-Savic is a target but only if Pogba attracts an offer bigger than we signed him for (which, realistically, would only happen if he has a great World Cup and PSG sort out their FFP issues). Martial is the other big uncertainty but doesn't currently seem to have any really appealing suitors and likely won't command a tempting enough fee. The only realistic possibilities seem to be Chelsea, Bayern or Juve. These all seem to be involved in a bit of a waiting game as Chelsea's hierarchy appear to admire Martial but will want to run the possibility by their new manager (assuming Conte is replaced by Blanc/Enrique/Sarri). Bayern also might be waiting to spend the newly arrived Douglas Costa money from Juve and for Kovac to assess his squad. Juventus are apparently trying to sell Higuaín to Chelsea which could free up funds for Martial. So there could be a bit of a player merry-go-round; especially with Bale's future up in the air and unlikely to be decided while Madrid don't have a coach. Griezmann looks destined for Barca if they can free up funds alongside the other needs of their squad. The situations regarding Ronaldo, Mbappe and Neymar are all unclear too but any moves would likely just take place between PSG and Madrid and are probably dependent on Madrid's new coach and the ramifications of PSG's FFP struggles. Personally, I think all rumoured marquee names will stay or go elsewhere. The only one I see as a remote possibility is some sort of Willian/Martial exchange.
6) Most fans here will be ultimately unsatisfied with the above due to the lack of a huge name acquisition and no new LB. However, the outlay will still be between 150M and 200M (Approx figures of 160M by my reckoning - Dalot 20M, Fred 50M, Alderweireld 50M, Talisca 40M).
7) Tahith Chong will be the RW promoted.
8) Our strongest 11, to be played in the biggest games, would consist of a diamond midfield with 2 up front. However, don't be surprised to see Talisca playing from the RW slot occasionally and cutting in on his favoured left foot.
9) Dalot will already be better than expected and be 1st choice RB.
10) Fred and Talisca will surprise a lot of people with how good they are.
This would leave us with the following squad -
GK: De Gea, Romero, Pereira
RB: Dalot, Valencia
LB: Young, Shaw, Mitchell
CD: Alderweireld, Bailly, Smalling, Rojo, Jones, Lindelöf
DM: Matic, McTominay
CM: Pogba, Fred, Herrera
AM: Talisca, Lingard
RW: Mata, Chong
LW: Sanchez, Martial
ST: Lukaku, Rashford
The 'best' 11 would be De Gea; Dalot, Young, Alderweireld, Bailly; Matic, Pogba, Fred; Talisca; Lukaku, Sanchez
I realise there's a lot of extrapolation here but I feel Jose's history at United has been consistent and we can expect him to be true to form. Hopefully I've explained my rationale sufficiently. What do you reckon?
