Newcastle are what City were - thought exercise

[tomaldinho1]

I've read whole topic and I have a general question. How are clubs meant to compete?

I'm not fan of oil or any other kind of investments a la Newcastle, but is the only alternative status quo? Because, let's not kid ourselves, there is no natural way for Newcastle or any other club to catch up with top rivals.

As Wolf1992 pointed out, Bosman rulling set a precedent for destroying competitiveness across continent. That, coupled with Champions league reform, laid foundations for stratification which is a long term process whose results we are witnessing right now. The only way to have a crack at the system, which is extremely flawed, is through rich investors.

I don't think this is true though, it's more that most business owners care about making money (see the Glazer/Kroenke/Henry/Ashley model) and so the biggest 'brand' name clubs have all been bought by similar owners - people who can maximise the monetisation of an already big fanbase. Where the oil clubs are different is they are sinking money into the abyss (honestly lord knows how many billions Abu Dhabi has poured into City) and don't really care about heavy losses, it's a completely different business model which can only be matched by bigger and richer oil clubs & Newcastle are now the biggest fish in the pond.

The natural way for Newcastle to compete again would have been through sustainable growth, the issue is they were bought by Ashley, that was just bad luck or poor PL gatekeeping. FFP wasn't designed as is often pedalled on here to stop any clubs competing with the bigger ones, it was to stop clubs going bankrupt. Look at Everton and Leicester, those are projects where you have a super rich owner piling money into infrastructure, the academy, scouting etc. and longer term you should be able to get to the stage where you are competing with the best. If that owner then fecks off, the club is left in a very healthy state given all the wider investment.

 

[Bosnian_fan]

I don't think this is true though, it's more that most business owners care about making money (see the Glazer/Kroenke/Henry/Ashley model) and so the biggest 'brand' name clubs have all been bought by similar owners - people who can maximise the monetisation of an already big fanbase. Where the oil clubs are different is they are sinking money into the abyss (honestly lord knows how many billions Abu Dhabi has poured into City) and don't really care about heavy losses, it's a completely different business model which can only be matched by bigger and richer oil clubs & Newcastle are now the biggest fish in the pond.

The natural way for Newcastle to compete again would have been through sustainable growth, the issue is they were bought by Ashley, that was just bad luck or poor PL gatekeeping. FFP wasn't designed as is often pedalled on here to stop any clubs competing with the bigger ones, it was to stop clubs going bankrupt. Look at Everton and Leicester, those are projects where you have a super rich owner piling money into infrastructure, the academy, scouting etc. and longer term you should be able to get to the stage where you are competing with the best. If that owner then fecks off, the club is left in a very healthy state given all the wider investment.

But can you point to me at least one example of a club that wasn't too successful but then found their way to the top through sustainable growth? Leicester are doing incredibly, yet they only fluked their way to title and will most likely never again be in the running again.

 

[Wumminator]

But can you point to me at least one example of a club that wasn't too successful but then found their way to the top through sustainable growth? Leicester are doing incredibly, yet they only fluked their way to title and will most likely never again be in the running again.

Clubs who could have done this were destroyed by clubs who financially dope.

 

[tomaldinho1]

But can you point to me at least one example of a club that wasn't too successful but then found their way to the top through sustainable growth? Leicester are doing incredibly, yet they only fluked their way to title and will most likely never again be in the running again.

Leicester are a good example, they were bought in 2010 whilst in the Championship, they didn't have a particularly successful past (like a Forest or Wolves type club i.e. not a huge fanbase) and took a few seasons to get back to the PL. They essentially went from a Championship club who were close at one point to relegation to a top 6 PL club in a decade, that's phenomenal. They've finished 5th two seasons in a row, the thing that keeps them out of the CL is oil clubs.

 

[LennartsParadis]

Newcastle has a looong way to go. Just look at us.. throwing money about isnt enough.

 

[Hastar]

Newcastle have the blueprint in front of them with Chelsea's and City's example.
Also their owners seem realistic in their expectations. At least from their interviews they come across like that.

They will give themselves four to five years to turn into a team that challenges for the top four. And only then go for the title.

I wonder if their fans will have that patience, though.

 

[ThierryHenry14]

Newcastle have the blueprint in front of them with Chelsea's and City's example.
Also their owners seem realistic in their expectations. At least from their interviews they come across like that.

They will give themselves four to five years to turn into a team that challenges for the top four. And only then go for the title.

I wonder if their fans will have that patience, though.

Why their fans suddenly has no patience when Newcastle has been struggling to stay up for so many years?

 

[Glorio]

Why their fans suddenly has no patience when Newcastle has been struggling to stay up for so many years?

You'd be surprised. This is not necessarily about managers, but many fans have turned on managers after they overachieve in the past and subsequently fail to match that level.

 

[Pintu]

Why their fans suddenly has no patience when Newcastle has been struggling to stay up for so many years?

Being mocked by everyone as the new toy of a suspect regime(to word it nicely) and still not being able to achieve anything on the pitch would be painful. I think they will be very demanding come the summer.

In 2008 it was difficult for City -even as a midtable squad- to attract top players from Europe. The other leagues had many rich clubs capable of offering what was good wages back then... Now things have changed massively. The PL is concentrating most of the wealth and very few european clubs will be capable of keeping their best players when N'Castle comes knocking on the door.

 

[ThierryHenry14]

Newcastle management has been spending money carefully i don't understand where all these expectation come from.

 

[Chesterlestreet]

With regard to the OP's starting point...no, Newcastle are a bigger club than City were back then. Historically, in terms of local fan base, in terms of world wide fan base (not compared to current City, but compared to City before the takeover) - they're easily bigger.

The good news for us is that it probably doesn't matter that much: they obviously aren't, say, Arsenal. They can't capitalize easily on a status as a historically great club (they aren't a "sleeping giant" in any meaningful sense) - but, yes, they're clearly a bigger club than City were at the time of the takeover.

 

[the_box]

Being mocked by everyone as the new toy of a suspect regime(to word it nicely) and still not being able to achieve anything on the pitch would be painful. I think they will be very demanding come the summer.

We'll want some upgrades but the fan opinion is it will be a gradual (though well funded ) and deliberate climb, and we're okay with that.

Now, I'm sure there's an absolute muppet or two in our support on twitter demanding the league next year, and someone will want to throw in my face come the summer, but those idiots are just not indicative of the base. Especially after 14 years of Ashley and many more decades before than that of not winning anything; letting go of patience now is ridiculous. Most of us get that.

 

[Thunderhead]

With regard to the OP's starting point...no, Newcastle are a bigger club than City were back then. Historically, in terms of local fan base, in terms of world wide fan base (not compared to current City, but compared to City before the takeover) - they're easily bigger.

The good news for us is that it probably doesn't matter that much: they obviously aren't, say, Arsenal. They can't capitalize easily on a status as a historically great club (they aren't a "sleeping giant" in any meaningful sense) - but, yes, they're clearly a bigger club than City were at the time of the takeover.

Rubbish, before Hall and Shephard Newcastle were not bigger than city, either in trophies or fan base

 

[Offside]

With regard to the OP's starting point...no, Newcastle are a bigger club than City were back then. Historically, in terms of local fan base, in terms of world wide fan base (not compared to current City, but compared to City before the takeover) - they're easily bigger.

That’s bollocks.

 

[Thunderhead]

For a club with no history on a relegation season we still had the 4th highest crowd in the old first division

https://www.worldfootball.net/attendance/eng-premier-league-1982-1983/1/

16k difference in late 70's

https://www.worldfootball.net/attendance/eng-premier-league-1977-1978/1/

Unfortunately the championship (old div2) only goes back to 1996 and I can't be chewed to look anywhere else

 

[SuperiorXI]

Here's a thought exercise: feck em both

 

[Thunderhead]

Here's a thought exercise: feck em both

I can live with that

 

[C'est Moi Cantona]

Newcastle has a looong way to go. Just look at us.. throwing money about isnt enough.

Difference is their main focus will be on winning things, if they don't then the whole thing is a bit pointless, to us that is secondary, yes we spend money, but just as long it's not a complete disaster then we will still see the money rolling in, so it's not done with any real care to the final outcome.

Newcastle seem to be getting things right from an early stage, so they could get to where they want to be very quickly imo, the only upside is that City will have to take a backseat finally, not sure there's room for two clubs like this in the same league longterm.

 

[Pearl.Jam]

Here's a thought exercise: feck em both

Finally some sense being spouted here

 

[ronaldinhoisagoat]

City were lucky that 'young' world class players like Toure, Silva, Zabaleta and Aguero all joined them at the same time. This pushed them close to upper-end of the table. Not sure if Newcastle will get that lucky. Realistically which young, good soon-to-enter-their-peak player is linked to Newcastle?

 

[ThierryHenry14]

City were lucky that 'young' world class players like Toure, Silva, Zabaleta and Aguero all joined them at the same time. This pushed them close to upper-end of the table. Not sure if Newcastle will get that lucky. Realistically which young, good soon-to-enter-their-peak player is linked to Newcastle?

Newcastle seems like is going the Leicester city route than Chelsea/Man City route at the moment.

 

[Hastar]

Why their fans suddenly has no patience when Newcastle has been struggling to stay up for so many years?

The fan culture in general has degraded in the last few years.

This season I saw Brighton fans booing their team after a draw, causing even Potter to look surprised. A lot of Leicester fans are asking for Rodgers to be sacked.

Newcastle's would be no different. There's no guarantee they will get sucess, and I can already see a lot of them thinking about potential UCL qualification in a season or two.

Imagine the reaction if they struggle to achieve that.

 

[ThierryHenry14]

The fan culture in general has degraded in the last few years.

This season I saw Brighton fans booing their team after a draw, causing even Potter to look surprised. A lot of Leicester fans are asking for Rodgers to be sacked.

Newcastle's would be no different. There's no guarantee they will get sucess, and I can already see a lot of them thinking about potential UCL qualification in a season or two.

Imagine the reaction if they struggle to achieve that.

Even if Newcastle spend the money there is no guarantee for league title, otherwise Man Utd should have won it many times for the past 10 season.

 

[thegregster]

Even if Newcastle spend the money there is no guarantee for league title, otherwise Man Utd should have won it many times for the past 10 season.

Newcastle won't hang on to players that cost a lot like we do eg Jones,Mata, Martial etc. Also they will pay for proper scouts and technical staff. Plus their squad won't be full of homegrown players who aren't good enough.

It will be the city model. Big money signings and if they don't perform replace them.

The timing could be perfect if Klopp and Pep leave in the next 2-3 years.

 

[Wolf1992]

I've read whole topic and I have a general question. How are clubs meant to compete?

I'm not fan of oil or any other kind of investments a la Newcastle, but is the only alternative status quo? Because, let's not kid ourselves, there is no natural way for Newcastle or any other club to catch up with top rivals.

As Wolf1992 pointed out, Bosman rulling set a precedent for destroying competitiveness across continent. That, coupled with Champions league reform, laid foundations for stratification which is a long term process whose results we are witnessing right now. The only way to have a crack at the system, which is extremely flawed, is through rich investors.

100% Bosman started everything.

It benefited richest clubs to get more foreigners, so in case national players weren't good enough to compete at the highest level, they now could get more top foreigners to fix the issue.

Just imagine Guardiola's City with 8 english players and only 3 foreigners on the pitch, they wouldn't be dominating PL they way they do, neither they would be spanking PL sides every week.And title race would be very even, no matter how much money City has.
With Bosman ruling you give City so much advantage, now if an english player isn't good enough, he can easily be replaced with a french, portuguese,spanish, etc

IMO Bosman ruling destroyed the competitiveness in Europe, because even with all the money in the world, only allowing 3 foreigners on the pitch it's what made Ajax, PSV, Steaua Bucharest, Red Star Belgrade, Marseille, Benfica, and Porto able to compete in the past.
If you destroy that, you allow richest clubs to replace their "not so good" national players with foreign quality, and as they have more money than others they have more chances of getting quality.

Bosman ruling destroyed the competitiveness at club football...oil money is making it worse, but this is all on Bosman

 

[ThierryHenry14]

100% Bosman started everything.

It benefited richest clubs to get more foreigners, so in case national players weren't good enough to compete at the highest level, they now could get more top foreigners to fix the issue.

Just imagine Guardiola's City with 8 english players and only 3 foreigners on the pitch, they wouldn't be dominating PL they way they do, neither they would be spanking PL sides every week.And title race would be very even, no matter how much money City has.
With Bosman ruling you give City so much advantage, now if an english player isn't good enough, he can easily be replaced with a french, portuguese,spanish, etc

IMO Bosman ruling destroyed the competitiveness in Europe, because even with all the money in the world, only allowing 3 foreigners on the pitch it's what made Ajax, PSV, Steaua Bucharest, Red Star Belgrade, Marseille, Benfica, and Porto able to compete in the past.
If you destroy that, you allow richest clubs to replace their "not so good" national players with foreign quality, and as they have more money than others they have more chances of getting quality.

Bosman ruling destroyed the competitiveness at club football...oil money is making it worse, but this is all on Bosman

Man Utd spent more than City for the past 10 years with bosman ruling in place too.

 

[Wolf1992]

Man Utd spent more than City for the past 10 years with bosman ruling in place too.

They did, but that's due to poor management, United did take advantage of Bosman ruling before when they had Ronaldo,Vidic,Berbatov,Evra,Anderson,Tevez,Van der Sar,etc in the same team

I guess everyone here is old enough to remember that Mourinho's Inter had zero italian players in their starting XI in the 2010 UCL final... ridiculous.

 

[fergieisold]

They're a much bigger club than City aren't they?!

 

[horsechoker]

They're a much bigger club than City aren't they?!

People turn up for their games even when they're shite.

 

[Thunderhead]

They're a much bigger club than City aren't they?!

historically no, people forget football started before the Premier league and the Hall and Shephard takeover of NUFC. Newcastle last won a major trophy 50 odd years ago

posted above, https://www.worldfootball.net/attendance/eng-premier-league-1982-1983/1/ this was a season City got relegated, 4th highest average crowd in the league roll on a few years after yoyoing, still 4th highest averages in the league, above Spurs and Everton

https://www.worldfootball.net/attendance/eng-premier-league-1989-1990/1/

 

[manc exile]

Spent 90m in January, taking their rivals main striker. Circumvented any measure of fairness and have altered the trajectory of their club without even trying. Its a joke

andy cole 1995 anyone

 

[fergieisold]

historically no, people forget football started before the Premier league and the Hall and Shephard takeover of NUFC. Newcastle last won a major trophy 50 odd years ago

posted above, https://www.worldfootball.net/attendance/eng-premier-league-1982-1983/1/ this was a season City got relegated, 4th highest average crowd in the league roll on a few years after yoyoing, still 4th highest averages in the league, above Spurs and Everton

https://www.worldfootball.net/attendance/eng-premier-league-1989-1990/1/

Did city give accurate crowd figures back then? They certainly don’t now!

 

[ForeverRed1]

Newcastle’s spending can surpass city. They are going to blow everyone out of the water.

 

[ForeverRed1]

Cant agree, it’s not just a money game, look at Everton as a prime example. Nearly £600M in the last 5 years and if anything are just going backwards. Unless they make the right choices nothing is guaranteed. You could also give the example of United but I didn’t wanna get pelters

While I agree with you, Newcastle have more money than every other team in the league combined and x that multiple times over. Ridiculous amounts of money, I just can’t see it not working eventually.

 

[Thunderhead]

While I agree with you, Newcastle have more money than every other team in the league combined and x that multiple times over. Ridiculous amounts of money, I just can’t see it not working eventually.

people are forgetting, it's also an investment fund, they will be expecting a ROI eventually

 

[ronaldinhoisagoat]

Newcastle seems like is going the Leicester city route than Chelsea/Man City route at the moment.

Agreed ... probably because no 'big' player (De Ligt, De Jong, Mbappe, Lauturo, etc.) is ready to join them yet. I think long term Newcastle will be an upper table team with sporadic success. Don't see too many players wanting to spend their peak at Newcastle and now even the poorer teams in the EPL have a lot of cash.

 

[Yakuza_devils]

Man Utd spent more than City for the past 10 years with bosman ruling in place too.

Let's just say on official records Man Utd spent more than City (nobody knows the extend of their dodgy accounting)

 

[SER19]

andy cole 1995 anyone

pathetic. Cole and keegans relationship was finished and Newcastle came 6th, nowhere near direct title rivals. The most incredible thing since city sold their soul and club in all but name is the Olympic level whataboutism from fans.

Will no doubt defend Saudi Arabia Fc for their lives now too

 

[bosnian_red]

City were lucky that 'young' world class players like Toure, Silva, Zabaleta and Aguero all joined them at the same time. This pushed them close to upper-end of the table. Not sure if Newcastle will get that lucky. Realistically which young, good soon-to-enter-their-peak player is linked to Newcastle?

They did get Guimaraes in, who was a standout player for Lyon and would start for all apart from City/Liverpool/Chelsea (and even for those, maybe he has that potential). Trippier would start for anyone after the top 3 as well.

 

[mav_9me]

Newcastle has a looong way to go. Just look at us.. throwing money about isnt enough.

Difference is their main focus will be on winning things, if they don't then the whole thing is a bit pointless, to us that is secondary, yes we spend money, but just as long it's not a complete disaster then we will still see the money rolling in, so it's not done with any real care to the final outcome.

Newcastle seem to be getting things right from an early stage, so they could get to where they want to be very quickly imo, the only upside is that City will have to take a backseat finally, not sure there's room for two clubs like this in the same league longterm.

To add to that, Newcastle can spend F u money. Clubs like us can spend quite a bit but we still have limitations and budgets. We can't just buy 2 defenders every year for 60-80 till we find our back 4. Everytime they have a transfer flop they will just spend money to replace.

Bottomline, spending money doesn't guarantee trophies but unlimited spending will ultimately get you to some trophies.