Next Labour leader - Starmer and Rayner win

Sweet Square

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sun_tzu said:
I think it's pragmatic rather than sexist
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But this is goes back to the earlier point about what we view as pragmatic, which at the moment seems to be a 50 year old white male lawyer(There really isn't any reason to think Starmer is anymore pragmatic than the other candidates, barring RLB). And to be fair it makes sense why people would have this view considering the country Britain is but also before anyone has a meltdown, this doesn't mean voting for Starmer makes you a woman hater.
 
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Ubik

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It's definitely a blot against Labour that they've never had a female leader. Can't really argue against it being so, particularly given how they've had such a high level of female representation in the PLP for so long.

It's interesting to note, though, that the gender gap in the first ballot, per the latest yougov (https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.n...aml3meh/TimesResults_200115_LabMembers_w2.pdf) actually has Starmer doing better with women than with men. In the final round, there's no gender gap at all.

One key thing with this election, I think, is that people are seeking some level of unity among factions. Long-Bailey's launch article basically ruled her out of being that candidate. Phillips is never going to be that candidate. Thornberry is always going to be liable to controversy. Nandy is asking difficult questions that need answering, but for me personally I have to question her judgement given she helped put through Johnson's deal. That leaves Starmer, who was basically a loyal shadow cabinet member even if he was more enthusiastically pro-EU than the leadership, and people don't have the sense that he's been scheming.

Angela Raynor would've stood a very good chance of winning overall, however she stood aside for her mate Long-Bailey who was determined to run as the full Corbyn successor, which Raynor wouldn't have been.
 

NinjaFletch

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Ubik said:
It's definitely a blot against Labour that they've never had a female leader. Can't really argue against it being so, particularly given how they've had such a high level of female representation in the PLP for so long.

It's interesting to note, though, that the gender gap in the first ballot, per the latest yougov (https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.n...aml3meh/TimesResults_200115_LabMembers_w2.pdf) actually has Starmer doing better with women than with men. In the final round, there's no gender gap at all.

One key thing with this election, I think, is that people are seeking some level of unity among factions. Long-Bailey's launch article basically ruled her out of being that candidate. Phillips is never going to be that candidate. Thornberry is always going to be liable to controversy. Nandy is asking difficult questions that need answering, but for me personally I have to question her judgement given she helped put through Johnson's deal. That leaves Starmer, who was basically a loyal shadow cabinet member even if he was more enthusiastically pro-EU than the leadership, and people don't have the sense that he's been scheming.

Angela Raynor would've stood a very good chance of winning overall, however she stood aside for her mate Long-Bailey who was determined to run as the full Corbyn successor, which Raynor wouldn't have been.
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This is I think the best take I've seen on this in this thread so far. I've like Nandy a lot from what I've heard, but she's starting from such a low bar that I can't help but distrust her.
 

EwanI Ted

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Ubik said:
It's definitely a blot against Labour that they've never had a female leader. Can't really argue against it being so, particularly given how they've had such a high level of female representation in the PLP for so long.

It's interesting to note, though, that the gender gap in the first ballot, per the latest yougov (https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.n...aml3meh/TimesResults_200115_LabMembers_w2.pdf) actually has Starmer doing better with women than with men. In the final round, there's no gender gap at all.

One key thing with this election, I think, is that people are seeking some level of unity among factions. Long-Bailey's launch article basically ruled her out of being that candidate. Phillips is never going to be that candidate. Thornberry is always going to be liable to controversy. Nandy is asking difficult questions that need answering, but for me personally I have to question her judgement given she helped put through Johnson's deal. That leaves Starmer, who was basically a loyal shadow cabinet member even if he was more enthusiastically pro-EU than the leadership, and people don't have the sense that he's been scheming.

Angela Raynor would've stood a very good chance of winning overall, however she stood aside for her mate Long-Bailey who was determined to run as the full Corbyn successor, which Raynor wouldn't have been.
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I think this argument is precisely why Starmer's likely to win, its the path of least resistance. One by one rule out those with the most obvious problems or rough edges and Starmer is the last one standing. Basically it boils down to...

* RLB - We're in a hole here, we need to dig faster
* Phillips - I'll hammer Johnson
* Thornberry - No I'll hammer Johnson
* Nandy - Towns
* Starmer - None of the above

However I think that we should remind ourselves that Labour has to gain around 130 or more seats at the next election to get a majority, a massive challenge. I'm very doubtful Starmer's steady eddy approach will do that. 2019 saw a redrawing of the political landscape, an echo of what happened in Scotland after the indy referendum. As unpopular as Corbyn was personally, it was the failure to recognise and respond to these major changes as they occurred that did for Corbyn in the end. While none of the other candidates are offering a clear path to success, what seems certain is that offering more of the same will in turn give Labour more of the same - another heavy defeat. Starmer hasn't really offered anything so far beyond more of the same but with a bit more stability and unity and a leader with less baggage. As important as that is, its not the only thing that needs to happen.

There is a legitimate argument that its a poor field and, since no-one is any good, lets just not go backwards til things turn around or someone better comes along. But that's a de facto writing off of the next general election, or at the very least, leaving it in the lap of the gods. If they want to win in 2024 then I think they need to try something different, even if they have a pretty limited choice.
 

Kentonio

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British people love voting for posh people, as they intuitively think (thanks to centuries of brainwashing) that being posh means you must be smart and successful. The likes of Jess Philips have absolutely no fecking chance of winning an election in the UK. They should give it to Starmer and stop this arsing around.
 

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EwanI Ted said:
I think this argument is precisely why Starmer's likely to win, its the path of least resistance. One by one rule out those with the most obvious problems or rough edges and Starmer is the last one standing. Basically it boils down to...

* RLB - We're in a hole here, we need to dig faster
* Phillips - I'll hammer Johnson
* Thornberry - No I'll hammer Johnson
* Nandy - Towns
* Starmer - None of the above

However I think that we should remind ourselves that Labour has to gain around 130 or more seats at the next election to get a majority, a massive challenge. I'm very doubtful Starmer's steady eddy approach will do that. 2019 saw a redrawing of the political landscape, an echo of what happened in Scotland after the indy referendum. As unpopular as Corbyn was personally, it was the failure to recognise and respond to these major changes as they occurred that did for Corbyn in the end. While none of the other candidates are offering a clear path to success, what seems certain is that offering more of the same will in turn give Labour more of the same - another heavy defeat. Starmer hasn't really offered anything so far beyond more of the same but with a bit more stability and unity and a leader with less baggage. As important as that is, its not the only thing that needs to happen.

There is a legitimate argument that its a poor field and, since no-one is any good, lets just not go backwards til things turn around or someone better comes along. But that's a de facto writing off of the next general election, or at the very least, leaving it in the lap of the gods. If they want to win in 2024 then I think they need to try something different, even if they have a pretty limited choice.
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Very interesting post, thank you.

So both RLB and Starmer are same old, who's left that's the best of a mediocre bunch? Nandy is my pick there (and I can't stand Thornberry), but I'd really love to hear what each of them think about who should be working closest with them to rebuild.
 
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horsechoker

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Kentonio said:
British people love voting for posh people, as they intuitively think (thanks to centuries of brainwashing) that being posh means you must be smart and successful. The likes of Jess Philips have absolutely no fecking chance of winning an election in the UK. They should give it to Starmer and stop this arsing around.
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I'm of the opinion that many Brits still have the mentality from the times of serfdom.
 

Classical Mechanic

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Kentonio said:
British people love voting for posh people, as they intuitively think (thanks to centuries of brainwashing) that being posh means you must be smart and successful. The likes of Jess Philips have absolutely no fecking chance of winning an election in the UK. They should give it to Starmer and stop this arsing around.
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Starmer is working class but just highly academically achieved from a young age. Brits do like polished and academically achieved politicians though.
 

Smores

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EwanI Ted said:
Maybe knows she isn't going to reach the CLP or Union threshold and is standing down so that more nominations go to Thornberry & Nandy?
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More likely been promised a role in Starmers cabinet i reckon. You could be right that she's gunning for a female leader though.

I really don't think she ever expected to win but was using it to increase her profile to gain position.
 

EwanI Ted

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Fascinating piece of YouGov polling out today on the views of Labour members. Some highlights include

* Corbyn and Milliband are just about neck and neck for favourite Labour leader

* 70% of people intending to vote RLB think Corbyn had little or no responsibility for defeat in the election

* Opinion over Momentum is split 46% have a favourable view, 42% have an unfavourable view.
 

lsd

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Kentonio said:
British people love voting for posh people, as they intuitively think (thanks to centuries of brainwashing) that being posh means you must be smart and successful. The likes of Jess Philips have absolutely no fecking chance of winning an election in the UK. They should give it to Starmer and stop this arsing around.
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Starmer isn't posh
 

Phil

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Really interesting thread for me as a voter looking to switch to Labour.
 

esmufc07

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EwanI Ted said:

Fascinating piece of YouGov polling out today on the views of Labour members. Some highlights include

* Corbyn and Milliband are just about neck and neck for favourite Labour leader

* 70% of people intending to vote RLB think Corbyn had little or no responsibility for defeat in the election

* Opinion over Momentum is split 46% have a favourable view, 42% have an unfavourable view.
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Yet he gets all the plaudits for the 2017 election where he also lost, though not by as much. Those supporters are deluded.
 

DOTA

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NinjaFletch said:
@DiseaseOfTheAge

I have a vague recollection a few years ago that you and I had a discussion years ago about feeling more European than British as part of why we both feel so pro-EU.

I'm interested to know how you square your support with RLB with her parroting right wing attack lines about the EU such as today:

"The story of the last few years is that many people feel there is something wrong with their laws being drafted hundreds of miles away by a distant and largely unaccountable bureaucratic elite in Brussels.

I largely think it's a shame that Lewis did not attract more support. I think his brand of left wing, pro-EU politics is exactly where the party should be - although whether he is the person to make that argument I'm not sure.
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I remember that conversation, as well. I do still feel European. At my work we're a 5-4 majority Southern European, with five different first languages between the nine of us.

I don't see anything wrong with the quote there. I think it's an accurate description of the sorry state we are in.

Free movement was important to me, I'm less fussed on the rest, though I obviously worry about workers rights. I think openly pro-EU politics is a very bad idea for the Labour Party. It's an argument we've lost, as much as I wish that weren't the case. I want us to fight these battles individually, highlighting the interests of working people in our country, not more broadly with a pro EU banner.

Despite that, I would agree it's a shame Clive Lewis went out before he could really start. He's someone who is a lot better than most at explaining his positions. We've already had Jess Phillips bow out after failing to think of any positions and we have Keir Starmer trying hard not to have any. He would've been a good addition to the contest.
 

DOTA

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Vidic_In_Moscow said:
It must never be forgotten that some people here actually wanted Jess Phillips as their number one choice.
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Plenty of folks shall be reminded of this, should continuity Milliband lead us to the most pointless defeat in our history. As bad as Jess is, there were people that liked her. No one likes Keir Starmer.
 

DOTA

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Hammerfell said:
Yeah, give it to Wrong-Daily.
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I feel folks went way too early on this one. Elvis has been using it for about six months. It's exhausted before she event became prominent and now you just look like the Americans who are still calling their President 'Drumpf'.
 

DOTA

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sun_tzu said:
To be honest I'm happy with nandy or starmer...
I'll probabky vote:

1 nandy
2 starmer
3 thornberry
4 wrong daily
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I think Nandy's chances are underrated. She's a blank slate to most people and given the situation that's quite appealing to many.

Thornberry over Our Becky isn't on, however centrist you may be, unless you specifically want an anti-white van man platform.
 

DOTA

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Starmer is the choice for people who thought David Milliband should've won but now feel Ed is closer to the public mood.

Long-Bailey is the choice for people who think Corbyn's main issue was his historic controversies and brexit.

Nandy is the choice for people who don't want to be yelled at (see Warren's candidacy in the US).

Thornberry is the choice for people who just had a bloke hanging an England flag atop their car drive through a puddle to soak them.
 
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