No.1 for next season - De Gea or Henderson?

Borys

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Where do the stats come from? Like I said, go and watch the last Premier League Henderson started and watch him struggle at corners.
https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/keepersadv/Premier-League-Stats#all_stats_keeper_adv
Sort the table by Crosses - STP%. De Gea is second to last. 6th GK from that list (Pickford) stops more than 2x as many crosses as De Gea (% wise). Nick Pope stops more than 3x as many crosses as De Gea.

Unfortunately there are no stats for Henderson as he hasn't played much.

United give up a lot of good chances because of how we defend but he clearly needs to be doing better. I wouldn’t argue against it. I just think it’s going way overboard at the moment. But thanks for the link.
If you sort the table by Crosses - Opp (opponents attempted crosses into the penalty area), De Gea is 15th so not really.
 

DoomSlayer

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United give up a lot of good chances because of how we defend but he clearly needs to be doing better. I wouldn’t argue against it. I just think it’s going way overboard at the moment. But thanks for the link.
Use the website and look at the more advanced stats. I understand what you are saying and I understand that stats don't paint the full picture, but when I compare them with what I see with my own eyes, it checks out.

Don't think De Gea manages to be in the top 10 for any of the stats in the list. That's a very damning indictment when 2/3rds of the season is basically gone.
 

acnumber9

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DoomSlayer

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It shows Henderson as stopping zero from 26 unless I’m completely reading it wrong.
True, but you can't judge a player that hasn't played consistently. Whereas De Gea has been undisputed number 1 and this is his third season with a serious decline. We can't keep on neglecting the issue.
 

acnumber9

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True, but you can't judge a player that hasn't played consistently. Whereas De Gea has been undisputed number 1 and this is his third season with a serious decline. We can't keep on neglecting the issue.
But that’s been my point all along. This idea that Henderson has been coming and catching cross after cross is an invention. People are making up reasons to blame De Gea for goals. His form hasn’t been good enough, he could and should’ve been dropped after the Everton game. We don’t need to create reasons to pretend everything will be great when he’s dropped.
 

Wilt

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Ironically by Ole persisting with De Gea, both keepers will blow out for EURO 2021.

De Gea’s disastrous form proving he’s nowhere near good enough to be Spain’s first choice. Henderson will be ruled out due to lack of game time.
 

evil_geko

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De Gea or someone third. And Henderson is free to leave with that attitude.
 

DoomSlayer

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But that’s been my point all along. This idea that Henderson has been coming and catching cross after cross is an invention. People are making up reasons to blame De Gea for goals. His form hasn’t been good enough, he could and should’ve been dropped after the Everton game. We don’t need to create reasons to pretend everything will be great when he’s dropped.
Fair enough, but if Henderson wasn't considered as a huge talent, why did we give him such an enormous contract? He is on £100k+/pw, which is unheard off for a 2nd choice GK.

Ole must have promised him a great future at the club, why would Henderson waste his time as second fiddle to De Gea when he clearly wants to play regular football, wherever that may be? He was pretty clear on that from the start of the season.
 

Borys

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But that’s been my point all along. This idea that Henderson has been coming and catching cross after cross is an invention. People are making up reasons to blame De Gea for goals. His form hasn’t been good enough, he could and should’ve been dropped after the Everton game. We don’t need to create reasons to pretend everything will be great when he’s dropped.
I don't think that's the case. From what I've seen, people are tired of De Gea doing same things week-in week-out. He's consistently poor/below average goalkeeper (in terms of league standards). Henderson looks more in command of his area whenever he plays, more vocal etc. It inspires confidence. DDG on the other hand makes every save look difficult.

It's not like everything will be great when De Gea is dropped, but if he isn't he's guaranteed to make the same mistakes next game. Groundhog Day.
 

acnumber9

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Fair enough, but if Henderson wasn't considered as a huge talent, why did we give him such an enormous contract? He is on 100k+, which is unheard of for a 2nd choice GK.

Ole must have promised him a great future at the club, why would Henderson waste his time as second fiddle to De Gea when he clearly wants to play regular football, wherever that may be? He was pretty clear on that from the start of the season.
They either think he could be number one or were protecting a valuable asset. You can’t assign rhyme nor reason to the way Man United dish out contracts though. Time will tell if he’s good enough. I have my doubts.
 

acnumber9

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I don't think that's the case. From what I've seen, people are tired of De Gea doing same things week-in week-out. He's consistently poor/below average goalkeeper (in terms of league standards). Henderson looks more in command of his area whenever he plays, more vocal etc. It inspires confidence. DDG on the other hand makes every save look difficult.

It's not like everything will be great when De Gea is dropped, but if he isn't he's guaranteed to make the same mistakes next game. Groundhog Day.
It’s not everyone but there’s a number of people doing it. The manager obviously feels we’ll get more points with De Gea than without.

Henderson has started two league games and we’ve conceded from set pieces in both. I don’t think Henderson is much more commanding than De Gea in honesty. Braver certainly, but similarly weak on crosses.
 

Doracle

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United give up a lot of good chances because of how we defend but he clearly needs to be doing better. I wouldn’t argue against it. I just think it’s going way overboard at the moment. But thanks for the link.
He’s got a negative expected save per goal percentage though, just above Ramsdale on that stat (15th out of 21 keepers with sufficient stats).
 

Borys

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It’s not everyone but there’s a number of people doing it. The manager obviously feels we’ll get more points with De Gea than without.

Henderson has started two league games and we’ve conceded from set pieces in both. I don’t think Henderson is much more commanding than De Gea in honesty. Braver certainly, but similarly weak on crosses.
That might be true, but Henderson has his peak ahead of him and he might improve, while De Gea is not improving in any way and we know exactly what are his weak points.
 

Knacks

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Maybe a role reversal required. Henderson plays majority with De gea as back up. Henderson then gets the chance to prove if he cuts the mustard. Problem is like most I suspect he isn’t quite up to the standard of what is required, for United.
Will go on and have a decent career and be a good goalkeeper, However top top clubs have top top keepers, can you see him ever in that bracket?
Top keepers Allison, Ederson, Cech, Schmeichel, Van der Sar, Seaman etc.
These type are what you need to win leagues
 

acnumber9

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He’s got a negative expected save per goal percentage though, just above Ramsdale on that stat (15th out of 21 keepers with sufficient stats).
I’m not arguing De Gea is playing well. I’m arguing as to whether Henderson is good enough to instantly be number one. I’m yet to be convinced and I don’t think he’s done enough to show otherwise.
 

JG3001

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Why do so many people seem to have written Henderson off already? Don’t think he’s been given enough of a run for us to judge as of yet.

Don’t know how people can justify De Gea being number one, especially with the wages he’s on. Got to be that nostalgia factor kicking in again. Bet the people defending him to no end now are the ones who said he’d never make it when he first joined.

End of the day, assuming Henderson is up to the task, I’d rather have a very good keeper and a quality outfield, than a world class keeper with a mixed bag elsewhere. We’ve got to ditch the silly wages wherever we can.
 

Based Adnan

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Dave has been done as a top level keeper for years now. Test Henderson from now till the end of the season and evaluate then. Highly doubt he'll do any worse than Dave.
 

Plant0x84

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Obviously you take it with big shiny buckets of salt with it being tabloid fodder and all, but if true I’m not a fan of Deano ‘demanding’ or issuing ultimatums.
He hasnt done enough to prove himself when he has played - it’s up to him to convince Ole he is the man, not just go round shouting and sulking.
It’s not the end of the world if he’s 2nd in line for another year, he’s young and keepers play to a comparatively late age anyway.
 

Lemon Moon

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It's got to be Hendo, hopefully get Dave's wage off our bill & maybe get a decent fee for him too?

40M? I'd be happy with that.
 

Rooney1987

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I’m not arguing De Gea is playing well. I’m arguing as to whether Henderson is good enough to instantly be number one. I’m yet to be convinced and I don’t think he’s done enough to show otherwise.
Do you not think he should be given a chance to prove it?

Look at the drop of at Sheffield United this season, yes they'd still be bottom 3, but when he played a full season he was worth 10 plus points to them alone. You might be right he might not be good enough but based on last season when he played full time and De Gea right now, Dean deserve a chance to prove it.
 

acnumber9

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Do you not think he should be given a chance to prove it?

Look at the drop of at Sheffield United this season, yes they'd still be bottom 3, but when he played a full season he was worth 10 plus points to them alone. You might be right he might not be good enough but based on last season when he played full time and De Gea right now, Dean deserve a chance to prove it.
They replaced him with the worst keeper in the league Their drop isn’t all down to Henderson leaving. It had started with the return after lockdown. They’ve inevitably reverted more to the level of players they have.

I think we should pick a team that gives us our best chance of winning. If that includes Henderson then great. It’s always tough to replace a keeper in mid season. I suspect he’ll be given a chance next season barring a recovery from De Gea. If it happens sooner, I’m not going to be complaining about it.
 

largelyworried

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But that’s been my point all along. This idea that Henderson has been coming and catching cross after cross is an invention. People are making up reasons to blame De Gea for goals. His form hasn’t been good enough, he could and should’ve been dropped after the Everton game. We don’t need to create reasons to pretend everything will be great when he’s dropped.
Golden rule of stats, don't use them when there's only a tiny data set. Henderson has so few games this season that any conclusion we draw from his stats are bound to be flawed. Nick Pope, for example, is unquestionably the best cross taker in the league, but there's still been 9 games this season where he failed to collect a single cross. So the fact that Henderson hasn't take any in 2.5 games tells us very little about his play style or performance.

If you want to compare stats you should probably look at last season's stats for Sheffield United. Its not ideal (different team, different play style, etc) but 30 odd games is useable in a way that 2 and half is not.
 

GBBQ

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Do you not think he should be given a chance to prove it?

Look at the drop of at Sheffield United this season, yes they'd still be bottom 3, but when he played a full season he was worth 10 plus points to them alone. You might be right he might not be good enough but based on last season when he played full time and De Gea right now, Dean deserve a chance to prove it.
I think he does deserve a chance but I don't like that its out in the papers as an ultimatum. It now puts pressure on Ole to make a decision to (most likely) sell a great servant of the club and go all in on an unproven talent. I think Henderson was amazing at Sheffield and has earned a shot but he's never been properly under the pressure that a first choice keeper for United will undoubtedly face. The likes of Foster and Howard didn't cut it at the highest level but both were clearly PL level keepers so its far from proven that Henderson will make the jump but lets wait and see.
 

gazbradley

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I reckon DDG will remain no 1 until the end of the season in order to preserve his value. Then we'll sell.

Henderson will be no 1 next season and given a chance to prove himself. If he does, great. If he doesn't, we'll buy someone in summer 2022.

Whatever the case, I don't see us bringing in a starting goalkeeper this preseason.
How much value does de gea have? Can’t see anyone wanting to pay a fee to take them wages off us especially during covid. Think that’s what makes this decision so tricky for ole, play hendo and he does well you’re stuck with an expensive number 2 and potentially an unhappy player around the dressing room, but stick with de gea we could lose Henderson and potentially be looking at spending big for a new gk soon
 

Raredaredevil

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Fair enough, but if Henderson wasn't considered as a huge talent, why did we give him such an enormous contract? He is on £100k+/pw, which is unheard off for a 2nd choice GK.

Ole must have promised him a great future at the club, why would Henderson waste his time as second fiddle to De Gea when he clearly wants to play regular football, wherever that may be? He was pretty clear on that from the start of the season.
Christ I seriously hope this isn't true or this is just ridiculous for a backup keeper. The length Man Utd go to just to pay English players over the odds to keep them is just mind-boggling.
 

OnlyTwoDaSilvas

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I'd make Henderson #1 right now. De Gea's form has been nowhere near his best for over 2 years now. It's certainly not a blip. at his best, his strongest attributes masked his weaknesses. He doesn't have those match-winning performances anymore, and now his lack of aerial ability, organisation of the backline, as well as constantly being rooted to his line are now being highlighted much more than before.

Henderson might not be good enough to be #1 long term, but giving him the rest of the season to show what he's made of will be good for both parties, and will help the club assess whether or not he is. He was one of the best keepers in the league last season, and he's looked good for us when he's played for the most part, bar one or two iffy moments. He's made huge strides in his career so far, I'd hope he can make a few more.
 

Brightonian

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But that’s been my point all along. This idea that Henderson has been coming and catching cross after cross is an invention. People are making up reasons to blame De Gea for goals. His form hasn’t been good enough, he could and should’ve been dropped after the Everton game. We don’t need to create reasons to pretend everything will be great when he’s dropped.
I'm not weighing in with an opinion but in case the stat is useful, last season at Sheffield Hendo stopped 7.9% of crosses, putting him 5th behind Alisson, Guaita, Foster and Pope. De Gea was 17th at 5.3%. This season De Gea is 20th at 4.1 (and Henderson, as mentioned, unlisted).

To be honest I'm not sure the stat is a useful one. Maybe if you've got Nick Pope, who is consistently top of the table with about 12/13% crosses stopped. But the difference between 5 and 8% can's be that significant.
 

Andycoleno9

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Where do the stats come from? Like I said, go and watch the last Premier League Henderson started and watch him struggle at corners.
Exactly that. I don't deny that DDG is not great on crosses but Henderson is not much better (if he is even better) in that area. It is something what people want to be truth so it is enough that Hendo does it once and he becomes great in it. I remember that against Saints ( second half) and especially against SU he was stuck on his line on all crosses. Against SU away second goal was from the cross in 6 yard box and Hendo didn't even move. But against Socieadad he collected two long balls and "look how Hendo collects crosses" started.
Not to mention that rushing out in one on one situations, he is not even close to DDG. Dave is great in it. Has perfect timing. Henderson doesn't. Against City in cup (first goal) for example he waited City attacker at 6yard box, ffs.
And there is shot stopping where there is no contest between those two and where DDG is still excellent.

I understand people who want DDG replaced (i don't because he is 30y old and for me still the best but ok, i understand it), but Henderson is not half a keeper that Dave is. Not saying that Hendo is not good gk but DDG is much much better.
 

EdinburghDevil

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We shouldn't wait until next season to find out, after selling DDG. We should be giving Henderson a run between now and the end of the season. If he does well he gets the gloves and DDG moves on, likely back to Spain or perhaps to PSG. If Henderson doesn't do well, we sell him on - there will be plenty of interested clubs.

We are unlikely to catch City and unlikely to drop out of the top 4 based on playing either keeper, so it makes sense to find out if Dean is the answer or not.
 

Tom Van Persie

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Christ I seriously hope this isn't true or this is just ridiculous for a backup keeper. The length Man Utd go to just to pay English players over the odds to keep them is just mind-boggling.
It shows how in demand Henderson was in the summer. Chelsea were definitely showing interest and United had to pay him that much as we couldn't promise him he would be number one this season.
 

Djemba-Djemba

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We don't know if Henderson is good enough to be the number 1 long term.

But we know for certain that De Gea isn't.

That's the crucial difference, no matter what we need a new GK next season.
 

acnumber9

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Golden rule of stats, don't use them when there's only a tiny data set. Henderson has so few games this season that any conclusion we draw from his stats are bound to be flawed. Nick Pope, for example, is unquestionably the best cross taker in the league, but there's still been 9 games this season where he failed to collect a single cross. So the fact that Henderson hasn't take any in 2.5 games tells us very little about his play style or performance.

If you want to compare stats you should probably look at last season's stats for Sheffield United. Its not ideal (different team, different play style, etc) but 30 odd games is useable in a way that 2 and half is not.
It doesn’t tell us much. It does tell us that those talking about him coming for cross after cross are talking nonsense.
 

DWelbz19

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We’re in such an awful situation, and it’s entirely our own doing. De Gea is on far too much money to successfully sell him anywhere, and Henderson is too seasoned to just wither away on the bench. Good on him for having this mentality.

Ideally we’d start him from now until the end of the season, and relegate De Gea to cup games or something. Henderson needs consistent football to prove himself and for us to evaluate whether he’s actually good enough for this level.

Concurrently, we need to start looking at where we can shift De Gea, and how much of his salary we’re going to have to absorb.
——
Most likely De Gea stays glued to where he is (heh) and Henderson leaves or stays another season as a bit part player before leaving.
 

DWelbz19

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De Gea has not been THAT bad, has he? Maybe not as god-like as he was a few years ago but do his performances really justify getting dropped/sold?

Also, not being rude but who on earth would take him that could afford his wages? Real don't need him anymore, maybe Juve?
He’s not so egregiously bad that he is costing points (for the most part) like say Kepa was, I’d say he’s more in that funk that Lloris was in for a little while. There’s enough poor performances and suspect keeping on certain goals, but they’re balanced out by reputation and the few solid but unspectacular games he has following.

As many have alluded to, though, the problem is more just that De Gea isn’t at the standard needed to seriously contest titles. Add into that you have two centre backs ahead of him who are just as questionable, you’re left with a massively weak spine - as demonstrated by our large amount of goals conceded this season.