PL Title Race 2023/24 (Featuring the Peterstorey Table)

[adexkola]

Deserves a thread and discussion separate from the top 4/5 race.

Current real table, 18 games in:

Arsenal - 40 points
Liverpool - 39 points
Aston Villa - 39 points
Tottenham Hotspur - 36 points
Manchester City - 34 points (Game in hand)

Does not take difficulty of remaining schedule into consideration. So without further ado I reintroduce the Peterstorey table (thanks to @EvilChuck for providing the rubric).

The rules are simple, to win the title you are expected to win all of your home games, and win away against the bottom 12 from last season (the 3 relegated clubs are replaced by the promoted 3 teams) for a 93 point total (which is the par score we work towards).

Top 8 clubs from last season are Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Manchester United, Manchester City, Newcastle United, Tottenham Hotspur.

Spoiler: Par calculation

A home win is 0 points
A home draw is -2 points
A home loss is -3 points

An away win against the top 8 is +3 points
An away draw against the top 8 is +1 point
An away loss against the top 8 is 0 points

An away win against the bottom 12 is 0 points
An away draw against the bottom 12 is -2 points
An away loss against the bottom 12 is -3 points

Doesn't look like any team will breach the 93 point par threshold (which is good or bad depending on who you speak to). However the par totals from teams so far is interesting IMO.

Peterstorey Table, 12/15:

Arsenal: -2
Liverpool: -3
Aston Villa: -3
Manchester City: -8
Spurs: -12

I'll update this at the end of January. Both tables are begging for a team serious on their title ambitions to start to separate themselves from the rest of the pack.

 

[Fortitude]

Two thumbs up!

 

[Cheimoon]

Nice!

I know the Alternative EPL Table at RAWK always got laughed at on here, but I think it's an interesting way of looking at performance for the first two third of the season or so. After that, the alternative and real tables start it correspond a lot so there is little point anymore, but before that, it's a good way to contextualize results by considering the quality of the opposition faced.

And good thing Chelsea is crap again, otherwise they might have messed up that top 8 list.

 

[adexkola]

I'm assuming Arsenal wins tonight. Only 2 points separate the 3 sides in the title race but the alternate table tells a different story.

Liverpool: 0
City: - 5
Arsenal: - 11

So in other words, Liverpool are on par for 93 points. City are 5 over par, and Arsenal are 11 over par.

City HAVE to win at Anfield or it's over, IMO.

Arsenal have the toughest schedule left. They go to the Etihad, Old Trafford and the NLD at Spurs, and still have to welcome Chelsea and Villa.

Liverpool have the easiest run-in however the Europa League may be enough of a distraction to reel them back in. That plus injuries.

 

[Karel Podolsky]

I think City would have dominated the league again had they retained Gundogan. This guy (and B. Silva) very much under-appreciated by City. They gave big contract to Sterling and then Grealish (two inferior players), that's why Gundo left and constant rumour of Bernardo leaving every summer window.

 

[Eddy_JukeZ]

Picked Arsenal to win the league before the season. I hope they end up doing it, but their schedule is brutal.

City being the 1st side to win 4 in a row would be awful. Liverpool tying us on 20 would be even more awful.

 

[Offside]

City will still be the favs probably. Although I think if Liverpool beat them at Anfield like they always do, they will win the league.

 

[ThatsGreat]

Expect Liverpool to go on and win it.

 

[Josh 76]

I'm assuming Arsenal wins tonight. Only 2 points separate the 3 sides in the title race but the alternate table tells a different story.

Liverpool: 0
City: - 5
Arsenal: - 11

So in other words, Liverpool are on par for 93 points. City are 5 over par, and Arsenal are 11 over par.

City HAVE to win at Anfield or it's over, IMO.

Arsenal have the toughest schedule left. They go to the Etihad, Old Trafford and the NLD at Spurs, and still have to welcome Chelsea and Villa.

Liverpool have the easiest run-in however the Europa League may be enough of a distraction to reel them back in. That plus injuries.

City don't have to win at Anfield. They will be happy with a draw.

Arsenal run in is not difficult as you make out. All those teams won't sit back and will play into Arsenal's hands.

Playing at OT is probably their easiest fixture.

 

[Newman123]

Must be hard working out who to root for to win the league this year. Liverpool win and they overtake utd as team with most league titles. City win and its 4 in a row which has never been done before.

 

[Buchan]

Let’s hope Arsenal (ugh!) keep their recent good form up and prevent the two disgusting clubs competing against them for the title from prevailing.

 

[Nicolarra90]

Must be hard working out who to root for to win the league this year. Liverpool win and they overtake utd as team with most league titles. City win and its 4 in a row which has never been done before.

City any day. And Liverpool would only level us.

 

[Top]

Must be hard working out who to root for to win the league this year. Liverpool win and they overtake utd as team with most league titles. City win and its 4 in a row which has never been done before.

City, easy. Their oil victories mean nothing to me.

 

[Newman123]

City any day. And Liverpool would only level us.

Out of Arsenal, City and Liverpool who would you prefer to win it?

 

[Nicolarra90]

Out of Arsenal, City and Liverpool who would you prefer to win it?

Arsenal

 

[The_Midfielder]

Arsenal

Not arsenal and liverpool

 

[adexkola]

I'm assuming Arsenal wins tonight. Only 2 points separate the 3 sides in the title race but the alternate table tells a different story.

Liverpool: 0
City: - 5
Arsenal: - 11

So in other words, Liverpool are on par for 93 points. City are 5 over par, and Arsenal are 11 over par.

City HAVE to win at Anfield or it's over, IMO.

Arsenal have the toughest schedule left. They go to the Etihad, Old Trafford and the NLD at Spurs, and still have to welcome Chelsea and Villa.

Liverpool have the easiest run-in however the Europa League may be enough of a distraction to reel them back in. That plus injuries.

Bump!

This is where the Peterstorey table starts to deteriorate; as some poster mentioned, you rarely get an easy game in the run in. Derby games, relegation teams fighting for their life, fixture congestion, players making mistakes, injuries, squeaky bum time... the assumptions regarding par scores start to fray.

But feck it, we've made it this far

Liverpool: -2
City: -4
Arsenal: -11

Arsenal are top on GD, but still have to play away at City, Spurs and Brighton, and welcome Chelsea and Villa to the Emirates.

 

[Kush]

Now, that Arsenal are in drivers' seat as in it's completely in their hands. I expect them to shit the bed. Starting next weekend.

 

[Mogget]

Now, that Arsenal are in drivers' seat as in it's completely in their hands. I expect them to shit the bed. Starting next weekend.

We're not playing next weekend

 

[Semper Fudge]

Now, that Arsenal are in drivers' seat as in it's completely in their hands. I expect them to shit the bed. Starting next weekend.

You shit the bed here.

 

[RedRocket9908]

We're not playing next weekend

Yep because you dropped out of the FA Cup at the first hurdle, you may well be out of the Champions League come Tuesday night as well so will have loads of rest between games

 

[Dumbstar]

You shit the bed here.

 

[GoonerBear]

Yep because you dropped out of the FA Cup at the first hurdle, you may well be out of the Champions League come Tuesday night as well so will have loads of rest between games

We won’t actually. We’ve a rearranged Chelsea game and if Wolves beat Coventry in the cup our game vs them will have to be rearranged as well. So as much as we’ve been ok schedule wise since the winter break, it will all start to condense in April and May.

 

[Irwin99]

I'm not looking at any of their remaining fixtures and seeing a particularly tough run in, with tricky game after tricky game, though European commitments might complicate things. Arsenal could actually win it this time- here's hoping

 

[always_hoping]

Hard to see past Liverpool for the title now. It's Man City v Arsenal in the next round of fixtures another possible draw there and Liverpool at home to Brighton could move them 3 points ahead of City with nine games to play. Looking at the run-ins City could drop points in one or two of their remaining fixtures while I don't see where Liverpool are going to drop any points . City needed to win more than Liverpool today.