Riots in Kazakhstan

[harms]

It's probably not that surprising but I realised that there's no thread for this on caf while it's a much bigger news that, say, Djokovic getting kicked out of Australia.

Everything started on the 2nd of January, when the prices for gas in gas stations in a town on the West of Kazakhstan skyrocketed (rising more than 100%), which led to public protests. Gas prices were only a catalyst though and the real cause was long-brewing distrust towards the authorities, struggling economy etc. It had spread like wildfire and 2 days later all country was rioting... the current president Tokayev, who was relatively recently appointed as a successor to Nursultan Nazarbayev (who had been Kazakhstan's first and only president for about 30 years), had dismissed his entire cabinet and promised to fix the gas price issue but it was too little too late. He even displaced Nazarbayev from his new position as the head of a Security Council (which the latter assumed after the supposed transition of power), trying to distance himself from him, but no one was fooled by this.

So, yesterday protestors occupied an airport in Astana, burned the presidential residence & cause quite a lot of mayhem, really. Tokayev suddenly changed his rhetoric and instead of "the protesters" he now talks about terrorist groups that were trained and brainwashed abroad that took over his country. Tokayev said that there were multiple casualties in the police force — and the protests really look quite violent from the little that we know of them*. Police, on the other hand, says that tens of "terrorists" were liquidated. Internet was shut down for 2 days in the entirety of Kazakhstan, phones won't working in big cities.

Tokayev had asked CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization, the new and improved Warsaw Pact) for help and this morning they've send in the troops. As for this morning, they're trying to forcefully crash the protestorsThe main power in CSTO is, you'll never guess it, Russia.

I'm not sure which sources in English cover this situation well enough, but I'll live a few links to relatively reputable sources — feel free to add yours:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/05/world/asia/kazakhstan-protests.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-59880166


* State Kazakhstan television said 13 members of the security forces had died, including two found decapitated.

 

[Cheimoon]

I've been reading about this as well. Given how the protests were violent from the get-go, I suppose the kind of street war that we are already seeing was inevitable, as Tokayev isn't just going to go away, and I get the impression that pretty much nothing else would satisfy these protesters.

Where do you see this heading? I'm expecting Tokayev to go all-in on the violent repression, and quash this in a sea of blood and death.- and come out on top, given the protests are so far fairly restricted geographically (if I'm not mistaken). What's your take?

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

Yeesh. That doesn't sound good at all.

 

[Sir Matt]

I've been reading about this as well. Given how the protests were violent from the get-go, I suppose the kind of street war that we are already seeing was inevitable, as Tokayev isn't just going to go away, and I get the impression that pretty much nothing else would satisfy these protesters.

Where do you see this heading? I'm expecting Tokayev to go all-in on the violent repression, and quash this in a sea of blood and death.- and come out on top, given the protests are so far fairly restricted geographically (if I'm not mistaken). What's your take?

My post from the General CE thread:

I saw that the Kazakh president asked Russia and the other Eurasian coalition members for military aid.

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Of course there will be a violent crackdown on civilians by Kazakh and especially Russian soldiers. It'll be like Hungary in 1956 or Prague in 1968.

Putin can't have another neighbor looking for more independence while he's trying to annex all of Ukraine. Maybe it will require him to move some troops from the Ukrainian border to Kazakhstan and impact his potential invasion plans/saber-rattling?

From what I was reading, the long dictatorship of Nazarbayev and repression of dissidents means there are no national opposition figures who could unite the whole country in revolution against the government so there isn't much hope for any real change.

 

[The Firestarter]

My post from the General CE thread:

I saw that the Kazakh president asked Russia and the other Eurasian coalition members for military aid.

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Of course there will be a violent crackdown on civilians by Kazakh and especially Russian soldiers. It'll be like Hungary in 1956 or Prague in 1968.

Putin can't have another neighbor looking for more independence while he's trying to annex all of Ukraine. Maybe it will require him to move some troops from the Ukrainian border to Kazakhstan and impact his potential invasion plans/saber-rattling?

From what I was reading, the long dictatorship of Nazarbayev and repression of dissidents means there are no national opposition figures who could unite the whole country in revolution against the government so there isn't much hope for any real change.

Cant see Putin invading Ukraine anyway. It will be a valid excuse for him to justify moving troops away from the border. Kind of too convenient...

 

[Sir Matt]

Cant see Putin invading Ukraine anyway. It will be a valid excuse for him to justify moving troops away from the border. Kind of too convenient...

I think he's mostly saber-rattling, but I don't completely discount the idea of him invading Ukraine. I think having that thread is valuable to him, which is why he regularly builds up military forces near the border before drawing them down. He has to know that NATO isn't going to cave and abandon its members because Russia thinks it deserves a sphere of influence over them.

 

[Klopper76]

Saw some videos on Twitter coming out of the country. The rioters are very well organized. I saw a video of an unmarked car dropping off guns to civilians and another of some captured military personnel. There was an internet blackout yesterday as well.

 

[The Firestarter]

I think he's mostly saber-rattling, but I don't completely discount the idea of him invading Ukraine. I think having that thread is valuable to him, which is why he regularly builds up military forces near the border before drawing them down. He has to know that NATO isn't going to cave and abandon its members because Russia thinks it deserves a sphere of influence over them.

But Ukraine is not a nato member and never will be.

 

[Desert Eagle]

People wanting to remove corrupt leaders, I'm all for and any resistance to these oppressive totalitarian regimes will usually involve some violence whether in retaliation or not. The internet blackout usually signals the state is up to no good and trying to prevent communication.

My thoughts are with all democracy and peace loving Kazakhs.

 

[Sir Matt]

But Ukraine is not a nato member and never will be.

Of course Ukraine isn't a member of NATO, and Putin invading Eastern Ukraine and stealing Crimea are likely to prevent them from becoming a member. If Ukraine decided to cede those areas (since there's no way Russia is leaving them), it's up to them if they want to join NATO, not Russia. Just as it is for Finland and Sweden.

But I specifically meant the Baltics, Poland, and Balkans that Putin demanded NATO remove troops and weapons from last month.

 

[The Firestarter]

Of course Ukraine isn't a member of NATO, and Putin invading Eastern Ukraine and stealing Crimea are likely to prevent them from becoming a member. If Ukraine decided to cede those areas (since there's no way Russia is leaving them), it's up to them if they want to join NATO, not Russia. Just as it is for Finland and Sweden.

But I specifically meant the Baltics, Poland, and Balkans that Putin demanded NATO remove troops and weapons from last month.

Sorry, I misread. But I disagree with the above statement - its not only up to Ukraine. They need to be accepted by the other members, and half of them are engaged in energy deals with Russia. So I cant see it happening.

 

[Beans]

My only source are random posts, but one photo showed a group standing with a long sign saying they're peaceful protestors and not terrorists but their fellow countrymen. The poster seemed to want things to go back to peaceful protest only. The comment suggests Muslim extremists had taken the opportunity to use violence for their own ends, without it being about corruption and the other issues that brought about spontaneous demonstrations and the dismissal of the cabinet necessarily. The country is mostly Muslim so that would make some sense.

Another post claimed all the leaders who might lead an opposition were in jail or fled the country, so it didn't seem likely one would emerge who could bring the dissatisfied groups tougher. That sort of vacuum was an issue in Egypt, where the only organized group besides the fascist govt were the extreme religious groups.

 

[Sir Matt]

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[ThinkTank@Cafe]

Internet just been made available in Almaty. I arrived to the city on 4ths of December. Went to Independence Square in the evening. Nightmare on 5th, 6th, 7th. Kids killed in shooting. Shooting everywhere.

 

[Cheimoon]

Internet just been made available in Almaty. I arrived to the city on 4ths of December. Went to Independence Square in the evening. Nightmare on 5th, 6th, 7th. Kids killed in shooting. Shooting everywhere.

What's your take on what's been happening? And is it really over now, you think? (I read the foreign forces have left the country again)

 

[ThinkTank@Cafe]

What's your take on what's been happening? And is it really over now, you think? (I read the foreign forces have left the country again)

Nazarbayev regime didn’t expect the riots of this magnitude. Their forces were not ready. Police in many towns and cities started to shift sides.

So, they initiated “plan B”: they let criminals out of prisons and used paid provocateurs to escalate violence. Then, they invited foreign forces and used them to keep hold on Astana (the capital), moving freed troops to Almaty. Violence was Used to justify military actions against protesters.

The main puzzle now is where’s Nazarbaev himself. Looked like Tokayev has betrayed him and took power.

I hope it’s over. Things returning to normal. We had internet for the whole day today. But many people feel like they were fooled. On the other hand, many people are just relieved. How the events will develop will depend on how the society is split between those who support Tokayev and those who don’t.

 

[Cheimoon]

Nazarbayev regime didn’t expect the riots of this magnitude. Their forces were not ready. Police in many towns and cities started to shift sides.

So, they initiated “plan B”: they let criminals out of prisons and used paid provocateurs to escalate violence. Then, they invited foreign forces and used them to keep hold on Astana (the capital), moving freed troops to Almaty. Violence was Used to justify military actions against protesters.

The main puzzle now is where’s Nazarbaev himself. Looked like Tokayev has betrayed him and took power.

I hope it’s over. Things returning to normal. We had internet for the whole day today. But many people feel like they were fooled. On the other hand, many people are just relieved. How the events will develop will depend on how the society is split between those who support Tokayev and those who don’t.

Thanks for providing your perspective. It's interesting to me that you still call it the Nazabeyev regime; I guess he really was still pulling all the strings then? Is he really out of the picture now?

Also, what do you mean by people feeling fooled? And is the relief due to the violence being over?

Sorry for all the questions!

 

[ThinkTank@Cafe]

Thanks for your perspective. It's interesting to me that you still call it the Nazabeyev regime; I guess he really was still pulling all the strings then? Is he really out of the picture now?

Also, what do you mean by people feeling fooled? And is the relief due to the violence being over?

Sorry for all the questions!

The thing is that Tokayev was Nazarbaev muppet similar to what Medvedev was for Putin in Russia. Nazarbaev was elected as head of National Securty Council (army, police and KGB) for life.

Thus, before the riots started it was Nazarbaev’s regime. Main outcome of the riots (actually it was nearly successful revolution) was that Nazarbaev highly likely lost his power. Tokayev turned out to be victorious.

People feel fooled because the regime fell everywhere bar one city.
There is a huge relief for many including myself. Thank God it’s over.

I had CoVid all these days but had to be outside ti guard the gated community I live in.
I spent a couple of days with temperature 39C and a shotgun. When shooting was near, it was really scary.

 

[Cheimoon]

The thing is that Tokayev was Nazarbaev muppet similar to what Medvedev was for Putin in Russia. Nazarbaev was elected as head of National Securty Council (army, police and KGB).

Thus, before the riots started it was Nazarbaev’s regime. Main outcome of the riots (actually it was nearly successful revolution) was that Nazarbaev highly likely lost his power. Tokayev turned out to be victorious.

Any chance any of it was orchestrated by Tokayev for that purpose? It seems a bit too neat and conveinent almost - although I didn't get impression of a bigger plan from what I read about the protests earlier.

Also, do you expect any changes from Tokayev, or will it just be more of the same?

 

[ThinkTank@Cafe]

Any chance any of it was orchestrated by Tokayev for that purpose? It seems a bit too neat and conveinent almost - although I didn't get impression of a bigger plan from what I read about the protests earlier.

Also, do you expect any changes from Tokayev, or will it just be more of the same?

I don’t rule anything out. But I doubt that it was Tokayev plan: it was too risky for the regime.

Nothing will change in terms of politics.

 

[Cheimoon]

I don’t rule anything out. But I doubt that it was Tokayev plan: it was too risky for the regime.

Nothing will change in terms of politics.

OK, makes sense.

Thanks for all the responses!

Edit: Yeah, @BeforeKeanetherewasRobson is right - good luck also! Hope you're safe and doing well...

 

[BeforeKeanetherewasRobson]

Internet just been made available in Almaty. I arrived to the city on 4ths of December. Went to Independence Square in the evening. Nightmare on 5th, 6th, 7th. Kids killed in shooting. Shooting everywhere.

Look after yourself

 

[ThinkTank@Cafe]

OK, makes sense.

Thanks for all the responses!

Edit: Yeah, @BeforeKeanetherewasRobson is right - good luck also! Hope you're safe and doing well...

Look after yourself

Thank you guys

 

[Tropical Bob]

Just listening to the Joe Rogan/Adam Curry podcast and at about 48:00 they get in to this. Some interesting points come up regarding China and Biden etc...

 

[The Firestarter]

Just listening to the Joe Rogan/Adam Curry podcast and at about 48:00 they get in to this. Some interesting points come up regarding China and Biden etc...

Sure, always have time for the foreign policy insides of a mma pundit.

 

[Tropical Bob]

Sure, always have time for the foreign policy insides of a mma pundit.

Awesome.

 

[harms]

Just listening to the Joe Rogan/Adam Curry podcast and at about 48:00 they get in to this. Some interesting points come up regarding China and Biden etc...

What are those? I'm not going to listen to Joe Rogan but if the points are interesting?

OK, makes sense.

Thanks for all the responses!

Edit: Yeah, @BeforeKeanetherewasRobson is right - good luck also! Hope you're safe and doing well...

Sorry for abandoning the thread and thanks to @ThinkTank@Cafe for responding — and from the scene as well!

It's highly unlikely that the protest was organised by someone from the beginning but Tokayev had certainly used it to get rid from Nazarbayev. Someone also put a lot of gas into the fire near the beginning of the protest to escalate the situation further into a violent crisis — but I doubt that we'll know who for certainly, in the upcoming decades at least. Especially considering the rate that Kazakhstan's military, KNS & police leaders are dying at in the last few days.

 

[Tibs]

Saw on TikTok that the HQ of the NWO was based in Kazakhstan

 

[Sir Matt]

The thing is that Tokayev was Nazarbaev muppet similar to what Medvedev was for Putin in Russia. Nazarbaev was elected as head of National Securty Council (army, police and KGB) for life.

Thus, before the riots started it was Nazarbaev’s regime. Main outcome of the riots (actually it was nearly successful revolution) was that Nazarbaev highly likely lost his power. Tokayev turned out to be victorious.

People feel fooled because the regime fell everywhere bar one city.
There is a huge relief for many including myself. Thank God it’s over.

I had CoVid all these days but had to be outside ti guard the gated community I live in.
I spent a couple of days with temperature 39C and a shotgun. When shooting was near, it was really scary.

Glad you're safe! Hopefully you're feeling better from the COVID as well.

Is there anyone outside of Nazarbaev/Tokayev or the regime with enough profile to gain popular support? From what I'd read from better informed people was that there were no real alternatives for any protests to coalesce around.

Sure, always have time for the foreign policy insides of a mma pundit.

The real story is that the Biden/China Axis of Evil instigated the protests to steal Kazakhstan's ivermectin supplies.

 

[Cheimoon]

Glad you're safe! Hopefully you're feeling better from the COVID as well.

Is there anyone outside of Nazarbaev/Tokayev or the regime with enough profile to gain popular support? From what I'd read from better informed people was that there were no real alternatives for any protests to coalesce around.

I was reading an analysis in a Dutch newspaper this evening, and connecting to what @ThinkTank@Cafe mentioned earlier, the removal of Nazarbaev and his adherents has been going on pretty well in the background. There are also oddities about how the violence exploded. So as @harms also indicated, Tokayev may very quickly have recognized the opportunity he had here and hijacked the protests for his own purposes: centering all power around himself. If that's true (emphasis on the 'if'), there may never really have been any chance of real change here, and so your question might be moot in this context.

 

[Sir Matt]

I was reading an analysis in a Dutch newspaper this evening, and connecting to what @ThinkTank@Cafe mentioned earlier, the removal of Nazarbaev and his adherents has been going on pretty well in the background. There are also oddities about how the violence exploded. So as @harms also indicated, Tokayev may very quickly have recognized the opportunity he had here and hijacked the protests for his own purposes: centering all power around himself. If that's true (emphasis on the 'if'), there may never really have been any chance of real change here, and so your question might be moot in this context.

Yeah, but I'm curious if the real discontent expressed during the protests before they were hijacked has any potential outlets. Tokayev taking advantage to consolidate his power doesn't preclude the real protesters from returning to the streets in the future to try to oust him. I would guess that if any leaders stood out amongst the protesters that they will be identified and taken care of.

 

[Cheimoon]

Yeah, but I'm curious if the real discontent expressed during the protests before they were hijacked has any potential outlets. Tokayev taking advantage to consolidate his power doesn't preclude the real protesters from returning to the streets in the future to try to oust him. I would guess that if any leaders stood out amongst the protesters that they will be identified and taken care of.

Yeah, true, there were real issues that made people go the streets in the first place, and not just the fuel prices. From what I read, though, there wasn't a leader (as you also said), the slogan was just that the old man (Nazarbayev) had to go. Although in retrospect, the protest may already have been hijacked at that point?

I suppose @ThinkTank@Cafe would know better!

 

[harms]

Glad you're safe! Hopefully you're feeling better from the COVID as well.

Is there anyone outside of Nazarbaev/Tokayev or the regime with enough profile to gain popular support? From what I'd read from better informed people was that there were no real alternatives for any protests to coalesce around.



The real story is that the Biden/China Axis of Evil instigated the protests to steal Kazakhstan's ivermectin supplies.

No, there aren’t anyone who can lead the potential change — Nazarbayev did very well to brutally destroy any potential opposition in the country.

Mukhtar Ablyazov is probably the most well-known name out of the politicians that are opposed to the current regime and he had named himself the de-facto leader of those protests but that’s only true in his head. He also lives outside of Kazakhstan for obvious reasons and has a background as a government official under Nazarbayev (but apparently he got disillusioned since then). Still, he’s not a real option.

As for the Biden/China… yeah, seems like a very real possibility and totally not a ridiculous conspiracy made up by incompetent pseudo political experts. Is Biden’s real name Christopher Robin? That would explain the close connection to XI Jinping and the age seems to match up as well.

 

[harms]

By the way, I’m not fully behind the Medvedev analogy for Tokayev. Putin was always going to come back while the whole idea behind the Tokayev’s appointment was to initiate the eventual transfer of power… just doing it gradually so that Nazarbayev would always have the option to interfere and overrule Tokayev if anything goes wrong.

It’s always the same issue for any authoritarian regime — it either ends in a revolution or with the death of its leader. Nazarbayev is 81 and clearly is a bit tired of day-to-day stuff so he had tried to outsmart this rule… to be fair, he kinda did even considering this situation if Tokayev won’t go any further and take any action against him personally to please the general population (which is unlikely but not impossible).

 

[ThinkTank@Cafe]

What are those? I'm not going to listen to Joe Rogan but if the points are interesting?


Sorry for abandoning the thread and thanks to @ThinkTank@Cafe for responding — and from the scene as well!

It's highly unlikely that the protest was organised by someone from the beginning but Tokayev had certainly used it to get rid from Nazarbayev. Someone also put a lot of gas into the fire near the beginning of the protest to escalate the situation further into a violent crisis — but I doubt that we'll know who for certainly, in the upcoming decades at least. Especially considering the rate that Kazakhstan's military, KNS & police leaders are dying at in the last few days.

Glad you're safe! Hopefully you're feeling better from the COVID as well.

Is there anyone outside of Nazarbaev/Tokayev or the regime with enough profile to gain popular support? From what I'd read from better informed people was that there were no real alternatives for any protests to coalesce around.



The real story is that the Biden/China Axis of Evil instigated the protests to steal Kazakhstan's ivermectin supplies.

Thank you guys for support.

@harms.Yes, you are right about differences between Medvedev and Tokayev - very different situations. I used Medvedev example just to highlight Tokayev status as a muppet.

You might know it already. In yesterday sppech to Parliament, Tokayev hinted that Nazabayev’s family interests will be affected. He literally said: “thanks to the first President there are some very profitable businesses in Kazakhstan and some people who are very rich. They should pay tribute to the people of Kazakhstan”.

 

[Cheimoon]

You might know it already. In yesterday sppech to Parliament, Tokayev hinted that Nazabayev’s family interests will be affected. He literally said: “thanks to the first President there are some very profitable businesses in Kazakhstan and some people who are very rich. They should pay tribute to the people of Kazakhstan”.

I was reading about that on Radio-Canada this morning as well (link, in French). Tokayev has already started this with an announcement that he will be putting an end to the (apparently very profitable) monopoly on recycling, from which Nazarbaev's daughter Alia is profiting.

 

[harms]

You might know it already. In yesterday sppech to Parliament, Tokayev hinted that Nazabayev’s family interests will be affected. He literally said: “thanks to the first President there are some very profitable businesses in Kazakhstan and some people who are very rich. They should pay tribute to the people of Kazakhstan”.

Yeah. I love how his actions don't contradict his assessment of the riots though, not at all.

There were what, twenty thousand foreign terrorists operating in Kazakhstan according to him... so the way to deal with them is clearly to freeze the rise of government salaries & to establish a fund that is going to force oligarchs from Nazarbayev's era to chip in. The best way to counter "international terrorism"

It would've been nice to see the fall of Nazarbayev's regime, including the dispossession of assets of his closest circle if it wasn't for the benefit of the same exact system with slightly different personnel

 

[ThinkTank@Cafe]

Yeah. I love how his actions don't contradict his assessment of the riots though, not at all.

There were what, twenty thousand foreign terrorists operating in Kazakhstan according to him... so the way to deal with them is clearly to freeze the rise of government salaries & to establish a fund that is going to force oligarchs from Nazarbayev's era to chip in. The best way to counter "international terrorism"

It would've been nice to see the fall of Nazarbayev's regime, including the dispossession of assets of his closest circle if it wasn't for the benefit of the same exact system with slightly different personnel

Yes. It will be just another robbery of the robberers. Peredel sobstvennosti. Classics.

Nazarbayev’s powerful nephew, KNC general Samat Abish who was reported detained appears to be still in office according to the latest rumors….Another classic scene. Kompromat war and negotiations between the new and old guard are undergoing, I suppose.

 

[ThinkTank@Cafe]

I was reading about that on Radio-Canada this morning as well (link, in French). Tokayev has already started this with an announcement that he will be putting an end to the (apparently very profitable) monopoly on recycling, from which Nazarbaev's daughter Alia is profiting.

“Recycling business” is just a huge tax on every car imported to Kazakhstan.Hundred of millions dollars annually.

You seem to be very interested in Kazakhstan. I’m little flattered. May I ask why?

harms is from Moscow, I guess. So it’s not a surprise for me

 

[Cheimoon]

“Recycling business” is just a huge tax on every car imported to Kazakhstan.Hundred of millions dollars annually.

I was indeed wondering about what was included in 'recycling' here exactly!

You seem to be very interested in Kazakhstan. I’m little flattered. May I ask why?

harms is from Moscow, I guess. So it’s not a surprise for me

It's not Kazachstan specifically, sorry. I'm just really interest in political and socio-economic circumstances anywhere. I don't go out of my way to look things up, but I do jump on opportunities to learn more when there's an event that leads to analyses in the news outlets I regularly read. I also follow most country- or area-specific threads on here. Unfortunately, that means I often read about countries when bad stuff is happening (like in your situation now), but I have also learned a bit more about Chile recently, for example, due to their presidential elections a few weeks ago and other events over there some months ago.

I know it's pretty superficial; it's not like I really know your country now. But I think I did get to understand a bit better what the general dynamics are. (E.g., articles I read also discussed Kazachstan's relationships with Russia and China, the general level of prosperity, I looked up some stuff on Wikipedia, and so on.)