Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[Ragnar123]

It's national security. They need to send a message to the rank and file that it's zero tolerance. It's not even like it's a whistle blowing scenario..

I was having a laugh with ma boys on discord doesn't cut it. Throw away the keys.

Exactly. The punishment for leaking secret documents does not depend on the reason for those leaks, but on the act itself. They need to send a message of deterrence. It's the same with Snowden. It doesn't matter if he did a good thing and uncovered criminal activities. The public message has to be, that you basically lose your life if you abuse top secret trust, so other people don't even think about it or worse, can't be bought by foreign secret services.
And I'm pretty sure people handling this top secret stuff are well aware of the possible punishment. It's usually the first thing you tell them.

 

[Bobcat]

I don't think those are that effective as it would seem because even though it obviously makes things harder, there are ways...

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In general I feel we underestimate Russia's capability of sustaining this war. The economic collapse is looking less and less likely to happen because they replaced the revenue lost from the exports to Europe by doubling or tripling exports to Turkey, China, Hungary etc. They obviously lose a lot of military equipment but I would guess the war will enter a new phase relatively soon (it kind of did already, with frontlines barely changing for the past half a year) because Russia doesn't have enough to win ground and at the same time we don't provide Ukraine with enough to retake ground.

I know, its partly wishful thinking. Its almost a year ago when everyone reported they were running "dangerously low" on electrical components and micro-chips, but of course if they can get them from China or dishonest Europen businesses then the supposed shortage is way overblown.

 

[Ragnar123]

In general I feel we underestimate Russia's capability of sustaining this war. The economic collapse is looking less and less likely to happen because they replaced the revenue lost from the exports to Europe by doubling or tripling exports to Turkey, China, Hungary etc.

Sanctions are like a snowball rolling down the mountain. It takes time to reach a certain size which can harm you. But it sure as hell will reach this size and then you're unable to stop it. An example is their aviation. The longer they fly without repairs and maintenance, the worse it gets. Their economy will shrink without investors over time as well and that will have an impact on everything. China is using them as a colony now and Turkey, Hungary and India can only buy and pay a fraction of Europe's purchase volume before the war.

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[Laurencio]

Don't forget Russia is still running a deficit producing military equipment and state construction in order to keep the economy going, but a vast majority of the Russian economy is not looking good. People's living standards and investments are plummeting fast. They are keeping their economy afloat by pumping money into equipment that gets destroyed, importing electronics at a price well above market value to do so, and selling energy at below market value to China.

While their war machine are able to import just enough to keep the economy up, the rest of the Russian economy can't. That will shrink the Russian economy and make everything worse.

That isn't sustainable in the long run, especially if the energy prices drop as Europe's power network is expanded.

 

[calodo2003]

Military intelligence is military intelligence. Our National Guard has been integrated into our regular military apparatus

Yeah, fair enough. There needs to be a top down review of security protocols then, especially at the periphery of the intelligence community.

 

[Rajma]

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[VorZakone]

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[JJ12]

Navalny in critical condition now, what a shocker

Only another Putin opposer who’s ailed by an unknown illness. For the 2nd time in Navalny’s case.

 

[The Firestarter]

Navalny in critical condition now, what a shocker

Only another Putin opposer who’s maligned by an unknown illness. For the 2nd time in Navalny’s case.

Bonkers decision to return to Russia

 

[Dans]

Bonkers decision to return to Russia

Absolutely agree. Brave, but stupid.

 

[calodo2003]

Bonkers decision to return to Russia

Yep.

But, then again, there wouldn't be too many safe places on the globe to reside.

 

[The Firestarter]

Yep.

But, then again, there wouldn't be too many safe places on the globe to reside.

Better be in Germany fearing the occasional novichok than returning for guaranteed imprisonment and eventual death.

 

[Ragnar123]

Absolutely agree. Brave, but stupid.

He knew what to expect. Either he dies in prison as a martyr or he survives until Putin's regime collapses and then he would have a good chance of becoming the next president. He went all-in, literally.

 

[Dans]

He knew what to expect. Either he dies in prison as a martyr or he survives until Putin's regime collapses and then he would have a good chance of becoming the next president. He went all-in, literally.

Like I said, brave, but stupid!

 

[Raoul]

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That's quite a pickle he's gotten himself into

 

[GazTheLegend]

Navalny in critical condition now, what a shocker

Only another Putin opposer who’s ailed by an unknown illness. For the 2nd time in Navalny’s case.

Don't really understand why Putin has kept him around, it seems strange to me that anyone in Russia would be under any pretence anymore that they're not living in a dictatorship.

 

[Raoul]

Don't really understand why Putin has kept him around, it seems strange to me that anyone in Russia would be under any pretence anymore that they're not living in a dictatorship.

Because he doesn't want to deal with demonstrations that would surely happen if Navalny is perceived as having been martyred. He already has enough trouble on his hands to further stir the pot domestically. Not that Navalny won't die at some point simply because of the day to day life he is leading in prison.

 

[Ragnar123]

Like I said, brave, but stupid!

Depends on the point of view. He knew what to expect and still went there, so it's not stupid in his opinion. He is willing to put his life on the line to reach his goals.

 

[The Firestarter]

Depends on the point of view. He knew what to expect and still went there, so it's not stupid in his opinion. He is willing to put his life on the line to reach his goals.

Yes, stupid in my opinion.

 

[dove]

Random thought came to my mind that I haven't heard about Kadyrov for quite some time now, wonder how is his Tiktok army doing? Did Putin mute him or what happened to him?

 

[Dans]

Depends on the point of view. He knew what to expect and still went there, so it's not stupid in his opinion. He is willing to put his life on the line to reach his goals.

The point is surely, that it's now looking very unlikely that he'll meet his goals and frankly, as soon as he got on the plane home, the odds were massively stacked against him. A fatal miscalculation potentially.

 

[JJ12]

The point is surely, that it's now looking very unlikely that he'll meet his goals and frankly, as soon as he got on the plane home, the odds were massively stacked against him. A fatal miscalculation potentially.

You just have to calculate the amount of people that have been muted - via death - to understand the likely outcome.

But as others have said, he could very well have been in a die-die situation wherever he ended up. So going back to Russia may remove all doubt of the ‘we didn’t do it’ nonsense that some may have lapped up.

 

[GazTheLegend]

Because he doesn't want to deal with demonstrations that would surely happen if Navalny is perceived as having beeb martyred. He already has enough trouble on his hands to further stir the pot domestically. Not that Navalny won't die at some point simply because of the day to day life he is leading in prison.

We've already seen what happens to demonstrators over there. I believe personally it's to protect his narcissistic image at this point: he "needs" some competitor still breathing to beat. He doesn't want a LEGITIMATE competitor. As long as Navalny is alive, in Putin's own mind I expect he's "winning" these sham elections of his.

 

[VorZakone]

Some of Ukraine’s European allies are increasingly skeptical its military will be able to make a decisive breakthrough this year because Russia’s defenses have had time to dig in ahead of the looming offensive.

The mood among Western officials marks a sharp departure from late last year, when Kyiv surprised its allies - as well as Russia - with a pair of successful counteroffensives that recaptured large swathes of occupied land.

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[VorZakone]

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[VorZakone]

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[RedDevilQuebecois]

LOLWUT?

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[The Firestarter]

LOLWUT?

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Toilet paper is scarce.

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

Toilet paper is scarce.

I saw what you did there.

 

[JuriM]

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[RedDevilQuebecois]

The Kremlin better not bitch and moan when shit will hit the fan in Crimea, especially Sevastopol after the way Ukrainian cities got hit.

 

[dove]

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[JuriM]

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[calodo2003]

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[calodo2003]

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[Ragnar123]

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[frostbite]

Once a dictatorship is established, it is extremely hard to overthrow it. Putin has exterminated all the opposition. In theory, Russia has elections, in practice it is a dictatorship.

There is a vast difference between a democracy and a dictatorship and we need to protect our democracies. We should not forget that most people in the world today live under dictatorships. And dictators do not like democracies in other countries, and some of them pay a lot of money to destabilize them.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...a-murza-for-25-years-for-opposing-ukraine-war

Moscow jails activist for 25 years for opposing Ukraine war

Vladimir Kara-Murza’s harsh sentence is the longest yet given to political opponent of Vladimir Putin

A court in Moscow has sentenced the opposition activist Vladimir Kara-Murza to 25 years in prison, in one of the most high-profile cases to date of a Russian dissident being jailed for opposing the invasion of Ukraine.

Kara-Murza, who holds Russian and British citizenship and studied at the University of Cambridge, was detained in April 2022 and charged with spreading false information about the Russian army in Ukraine. He was later also charged with high treason over a series of public speeches he made that criticised Kremlin policies and the war in Ukraine.

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

More horseshit from the Pentagon.

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I wish someone can explain to me the level of mental deficiency plaguing Western governments these days. Why the hell should we care about what happens to Russia if their armies are defeated swiftly? That's a whole different topic; que sera sera. As a consequence of a Russian defeat, Putin...

 

[Ragnar123]

Only public pressure can keep greedy ceos in line.

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[We need an rvn]

Only public pressure can keep greedy ceos in line.

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Completely agree, but as a ceo (not one myself) - not selling vodka to Russia is like iron bru not selling it to the Scots - share price and revenue would drop hugely

Joking aside, it might be a great thing for absolute as people might but it knowing they refuse to sell to Russia and I for one would buy it for that reason alone over another brand if I drank vodka