Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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Whatever is going on, long may it continue.
Between 1917 and 1918 Belgorod was part of Ukraine, so they have a "historical claim" to that 
If this is Ukraine operarion I'd imagine neither US no UK would be very happy.
It’s Russian internal domestic crisis, why wouldn’t they not be happy?
I meant if these are Ukrainians playing dress up.
UK for one didn't even put restrictions on the Stormshadow being used in Russia, doubt we give a shit.
So far we have only seen video evidence that these saboteurs are all from the legion of Freedom of Russia.
Yes, I just don't know if that's at all an actual existing organisation. Maybe @harms has some idea.
These have been active since last summer I think. They've claimed lots of attacks on railways/infrastructure within Russia in the past.
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The other group "Russian Volunteer Corps" I not sure about.
Wow the Russian version of "Dad's Army" went pretty dark! - "Don't NOT shoot him Pike-ski!"
It's still going on. What an embarrassment for Putin.
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Infinitely sad. Never thought that disregard for lives is something ever so generalized in Russian psyche, even for their own.
I simply dont believe that a mother would say its OK I have another. They want to portray themselves as unhuman, pretty remarkable.
I've seen/heard a lot of mothers say this in this region (Middle East) when talking about their sons being sent to war/terrorism acts. Unfortunate but very believable.
Are Russia doing a Stalingrad and allowing themselves to be encircled in Bahkmut?
Wagner pulling out for 1/6 to be replaced by formal military has all the signs of a proper opportunity for Ukraine.
Wagner pulling out for 1/6 to be replaced by formal military has all the signs of a proper opportunity for Ukraine.
That was a long, hard and good read.
I don't think it's possible. But I have been wrong multiple times in the past...
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ns-tribunals-pressure-mounting-vladimir-putin
We are closer than ever to arresting Putin, but the US must play its part
Gordon Brown
A new grassroots campaign calling for the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, to be tried for war crimes represents an escalation in the demand for justice for the people of Ukraine. Already 2 million have signed a petition calling for Putin’s indictment.
Now, in the run-up to August’s Brics summit (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) to be held in Johannesburg, more than half a million have already called for the South African authorities to put him in prison if he flies in to their country. This public pressure comes as European leaders meeting in Reykjavík have intensified their call for coordinated intergovernmental action to find a way to punish Putin for his crimes.
The Russian leader’s recent indictment by the international criminal court (ICC) for overseeing the abduction of Ukrainian children is the reason why he can now be arrested on the soil of any country that is signed up to its statutes. Russia has since retaliated by issuing an arrest warrant for the British prosecutor of the ICC, Karim Khan, in the growing confrontation between Russia and Ukraine’s western allies. Russia remains adamant that Putin will take part in the Brics summit, but a special government commission established by South Africa’s president, Cyril Ramaphosa, has concluded that Putin’s presence would violate not only international law but also the laws of South Africa, and he is advising Putin not to attend.
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ns-tribunals-pressure-mounting-vladimir-putin
We are closer than ever to arresting Putin, but the US must play its part
Gordon Brown
A new grassroots campaign calling for the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, to be tried for war crimes represents an escalation in the demand for justice for the people of Ukraine. Already 2 million have signed a petition calling for Putin’s indictment.
Now, in the run-up to August’s Brics summit (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) to be held in Johannesburg, more than half a million have already called for the South African authorities to put him in prison if he flies in to their country. This public pressure comes as European leaders meeting in Reykjavík have intensified their call for coordinated intergovernmental action to find a way to punish Putin for his crimes.
The Russian leader’s recent indictment by the international criminal court (ICC) for overseeing the abduction of Ukrainian children is the reason why he can now be arrested on the soil of any country that is signed up to its statutes. Russia has since retaliated by issuing an arrest warrant for the British prosecutor of the ICC, Karim Khan, in the growing confrontation between Russia and Ukraine’s western allies. Russia remains adamant that Putin will take part in the Brics summit, but a special government commission established by South Africa’s president, Cyril Ramaphosa, has concluded that Putin’s presence would violate not only international law but also the laws of South Africa, and he is advising Putin not to attend.
Not very likely given that arresting him would probably destablize Russia massively from within since it would start some sort of power struggle - not a good look for a desparate nation with nukes.
I wonder how much in the way of resources Vlad has available to deal with internal problems when most are already allocated and stretched thin on the frontlines in Ukraine.
What's the alternative ? A false flag operation ?
Yes, it is not likely they will arest Putin, but I wouldn't mind a power struggle (or even a civil war) in Russia. Actually, I think it is the best possible outcome for Russia, it is probably the only way they could get rid of the Putin mafia (because it is not just Putin).
About the nukes, I'm more worried about Putin himself using nukes against Ukraine, than any other fraction. Because how would it help a fraction during an internal struggle to use nuclear weapons? And they will use nukes against whom? During an internal struggle (or civil war) people are focused on the immediate enemy that is closer to them, external enemies take the back seat. I am more worried that Putin will use nuclear weapons against Ukraine if he is certain he will lose the war.
Its actually in everyone's best interest that excepting a proper revolution where people are clearly doing it because they want to go democratic, that Putin remains in power, because we just don't know who will replace him and the ensuing power struggle could wind up turning into a much more dangerous regional war. As of now, its confined to one or two countries, which is far preferable to the alternative of an unstable, leaderless Russia with nukes.
There are probably millions of Ukrainians in Russia who are both Russians and Ukrainians. It is not strange if some of them organized against Putin and the genocide he is trying to cause in Ukraine. And there are also some Russians who really hate Putin and the war. We don't hear much about them, because if they talk they will end up in prison. But I am sure they exist.
I don't agree with this. As long as Putin remains in power, nothing can improve in Russia. As I said, it is not just him, it is a whole mafia system (police and prisons) behind him. I am not worried about the person who succeeds him, because that person will not have as much power as Putin. Putin had 20 years, during which he killed or jailed all his major enemies. The new leader will not have this luxury.
Poor health excepting, Putin is going to be around for some time yet.
All he has to do is to hold on to the Ukrainian territory that has been won by Russia so far and he can claim the victory he promised.
He can't as long as Russia is under attack. He would need to fortify his own border massively to prevent such attacks from happening again.
No one said Putin should stay in power at all costs, just that he provides a "the devil you know v the devil you don't know" type stability in that the west are well aware what we're dealing with when assessing the current guy. A leadership vacuum in a totalitarian Russia is a whole another matter.
What would a leaderless Russia do with those nukes in that alternative? I hope this is not about one or more factions selling nukes on the black market.
I think the stability argument has gone out of the window since February 2022. Prior to then, he was a bastard but maybe one you could do business with in a realpolitik sense. Having gambled recklessly in launching the most destructive war in Europe since 1945, I don’t see that the “better the devil you know” still holds water.
Not necessarily the black market, but for example, what if someone like Progozhin, Kadyrov, or similar managed to seize power. That's definitely a worse predicament than a lame duck Putin who is bleeding the nation dry of resources in slow motion.
Are you suggesting that you believe that NATO nations might attack Russia?
He doesn't need to do anything to fortify his borders.
The threat of nuclear weapons does that for him.
There's an argument to be made that he's more stable and rational today than when he rather irrationally invaded 15 months ago. In either case, he is a rational actor (as per rational choice theory), and one that the west has had a personal relationship with for the past quarter century, so I'm pretty sure they would rather deal with a weakened Putin than a maniac neanderthal like Kadyrov or the like.
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