Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[Redplane]

The point was about statements and Putin never uttered what RedinSTL stated.

Restoring the Russian Empire is even an more ridiculous take.

I agree, for Putin to want that is ridiculous.

 

[4bars]

I was just looking at the list of hardware made available for the Ukrainian Air Force, including missiles and so on. Can someone explain to me why helicopters other than the ageing Mi-8s and Mi-17s have not been on the table yet? The truth is that the Ukrainians will eventually need a lot more helicopters (transport, gunships, etc.) if they hope to perform proper air assaults at some point insted of relying this heavily on ground assaults.

Because what they are delivering in Ukraine is strongly oriented on FIFO. Get read of the old stuff that is outdated so the military industry can sell the new toys. Donate the old Leopards so europeans buy the new ones. F16s as well, helicopters etc..

Sure they are giving them top of the line in other items but is basically this stock renewable

Bleeding out Ukraine works perfect for the US. For Europe...I am not that sure. Time will tell, but if europe plays cheap might end paying the price dearly

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

Because what they are delivering in Ukraine is strongly oriented on FIFO. Get read of the old stuff that is outdated so the military industry can sell the new toys. Donate the old Leopards so europeans buy the new ones. F16s as well, helicopters etc..

Sure they are giving them top of the line in other items but is basically this stock renewable

Bleeding out Ukraine works perfect for the US. For Europe...I am not that sure. Time will tell, but if europe plays cheap might end paying the price dearly

Even so, I'm sure there are plenty of good helicopters that can be made available by the US and/or their allies. Sending a good number of Hueys and early-type Black Hawks is something that can be done quite easily.

In any case, it's not normal that Ukraine only has 40 helicopters - 15 MI-8s and 25 Mi-17s (some donated by Croatia and the US) after all of that military aid. We don't even know how many of them are still operational.

 

[Red in STL]

The point was about statements and Putin never uttered what RedinSTL stated.
,
Restoring the Russian Empire is even an more ridiculous take.

Semantics, so he said Russian Empire rather than USSR, it doesn't really matter what he said or wants, it's what he's prepared to do, and if Trump is President then there is a realistic chance the Baltic States are fecked IMO

 

[4bars]

Even so, I'm sure there are plenty of good helicopters that can be made available by the US and/or their allies. Sending a good number of Hueys and early-type Black Hawks is something that can be done quite easily.

In any case, it's not normal that Ukraine only has 40 helicopters - 15 MI-8s and 25 Mi-17s (some donated by Croatia and the US) after all of that military aid. We don't even know how many of them are still operational.

I agree. IMO if the west would like to win this war, it could do much more, but i am afraid that they had been taking it as an opportunity to bleed out russia at the expense of ukraine becoming just a pawn for geopolitics

 

[Lemoor]

You're going by the underlying assumption that Ukraine is only the first step and Putin intends to swallow the Baltic States next which I don't buy in the first place.

Okay, out of curiosity. Why do you think that Putin attacked Ukraine in the first place, if it has nothing to do with classic imperialistic approach?

 

[That_Bloke]

Semantics, so he said Russian Empire rather than USSR, it doesn't really matter what he said or wants, it's what he's prepared to do, and if Trump is President then there is a realistic chance the Baltic States are fecked IMO

He did not.

Let's imagine that Putin indeed is Palpatine, decides to use his dark powers to conquer the whole Ukraine, and he'll need those, because his army proved that it surely can't. Then occupy it, with the Ukrainian population and the West being totally okay with it. Otherwise there's no way Russia will be able to keep it.

You think that NATO will let of its three of its members go down, just like that? Or that the US, even under the orange madman, will leave NATO?

In what world are you people living in?

 

[That_Bloke]

Okay, out of curiosity. Why do you think that Putin attacked Ukraine in the first place, if it has nothing to do with classic imperialistic approach?

Prevent Ukraine from entering NATO, put in place a regime more favorable to Russia there and grab land in the East and South-East. Odessa would be nice too.

 

[Red in STL]

Let's imagine that Putin indeed is Palpatine, decides to use his dark powers to conquer the whole Ukraine, and he'll need those, because his army proved that it surely can't. Then occupy it, with the Ukrainian population being totally okay with it. Otherwise there's no way Russia will be able to keep it.

You think that NATO will let of its three of its members go down, just like that? Or that the US, even under the orange madman, will leave NATO?

In what world are you people living in?

Haven't you listened to the Orange madman? When he was President he questioned whether he would respond if a NATO country was attacked. and he's just indicated that he couldn't care less what Putin does, especially in countries who haven't 'paid the bills'

NATO without the US would be hard pressed to stop Russia if they rolled in to the Baltic's

 

[Lemoor]

Prevent Ukraine from entering NATO, put in place a regime more favorable to Russia there and grab land in the East and South-East.

And why did he opt for a full invasion now instead of anytime during the last 10 years? Ukraine wasn't any closer to joining NATO in 2022 than they were in 2012.

 

[That_Bloke]

And why did he opt for a full invasion now instead of anytime during the last 10 years? Ukraine wasn't any closer to joining NATO in 2022 than they were in 2012.

Huh?

 

[Lemoor]

Huh?

Why would he invade Ukraine to prevent it from entering NATO if Ukraine had zero realistic prospects of even long-term membership before the invasion? Ironically, his 2022 invasion has been the biggest boost to NATO opinion in both Ukraine and the West probably since USSR collapse.

Also, if this is about friendly regime and NATO, why did he torpedo 2013 trade deal with EU?

 

[That_Bloke]

Haven't you listened to the Orange madman? When he was President he questioned whether he would respond if a NATO country was attacked. and he's just indicated that he couldn't care less what Putin does, especially in countries who haven't 'paid the bills'

NATO without the US would be hard pressed to stop Russia if they rolled in to the Baltic's

He can rant all he wants in front of his braindead cultists and they can lap it up until they throw up. When things get real, his camp won't let him do it, because it is suicide.

Strategically the US would should itself a nuke in the foot. It would lose access to a multitude of military bases across the world and an enormous part of its deterrence power. The NATO members will stop looking for the US for their rearmament, buying local and the military contracts would most likely dry up. The whole world order would be completely reconfigurated and the US one of the biggest losers.

Russia won't roll in there.

Why would he invade Ukraine to prevent it from entering NATO if Ukraine had zero realistic prospects of even long-term membership before the invasion? Ironically, his 2022 invasion has been the biggest boost to NATO opinion in both Ukraine and the West probably since USSR collapse.

Mate, you might want to actualize your database.

 

[Lemoor]

Mate, you might want to actualize your database.

So when was Ukraine joining without the invasion?

 

[B. Munich]

In what world are you people living in?

In a world where Americans might reelect Trump. Nothing will be sure, if this happens.

 

[That_Bloke]

So when was Ukraine joining without the invasion?

Yesterday.

 

[Lemoor]

Yesterday.

Thank you for your incredibly insightful and valuable input.

 

[Lemoor]

In a world where Americans might reelect Trump. Nothing will be sure, if this happens.

Nah, dont worry. He knows that his camp is going to be fully rational and everyone should not even bother considering any alternative.

You're most welcome.

I'd suggest to start with Wikipedia articles about Russia, Ukraine and NATO. From there on, you can build up.

So you know about Wikipedia's existence and you are still posting this stupid shite?

 

[That_Bloke]

Nah, dont worry. He knows that his camp is going to be fully rational and everyone should not even bother considering any alternative.


So you know about Wikipedia's existence and you are still posting this stupid shite?

Absolutely. What about you?

 

[That_Bloke]

In a world where Americans might reelect Trump. Nothing will be sure, if this happens.

He has to be re-elected first, and even then I'm not buying it.

 

[B. Munich]

He has to be re-elected first, and even then I'm not buying it.

Just look at the chaos and mayhem he already caused when only talking to his supporters.
NATO is all about trust and Trump already put huge question marks behind America's commitment to article 5 without being even in the White House yet.

 

[B. Munich]

Nah, dont worry. He knows that his camp is going to be fully rational and everyone should not even bother considering any alternative

I haven't been to the US for 30 years. So I just might be wrong bit when watching Trump events and his speeches. But they don't look like political events rather like the parade after winning the league or a rockstar appearance. Many of his supporters look as fanatic as Germans back in the 30s adoring Hitler. It's so weird and scary at the same time.

 

[That_Bloke]

Just look at the chaos and mayhem he already caused when only talking to his supporters.
NATO is all about trust and Trump already put huge question marks behind America's commitment to article 5 without being even in the White House yet.

That's just that, talk. How many of his electoral "promises" did he break when in office?

His and his camp's eyes are turned inwards and they will most likely ditch Ukraine by forcing them to negociate a cease-fire, even if unfavourable. Of that I'm convinced, but there's a giant leap between pulling out of Ukraine and pulling out of NATO.

 

[B. Munich]

His and his camp's eyes are turned inwards and they will most likely ditch Ukraine by forcing them to negociate a cease-fire, even if unfavourable. Of that I'm convinced, but there's a giant leap between pulling out of Ukraine and pulling out of NATO.

The first point already is an invitation to every dictator to start a war and grab lands. China and Taiwan next and the West just bows down again?
We aren't in 1924, such imperialist politics are absolutely unacceptable in 2024.

He can't pull out of NATO but it's in his power to ignore Article 5, if Putin attacks a NATO country.
Already his idiotic talks about not honoring the US commitments caused unrepairable damage to the alliance and are an invitation for Putin to become even more bold in his actions.

This is like the security company which installed the alarm system in your house going public and saying they aren't sure, if r system is going to work at a break in.
Trump is a fecking moron and train wreck.

 

[stefan92]

He can't pull out of NATO but it's in his power to ignore Article 5, if Putin attacks a NATO country.

If he ignores that, than NATO is dead and the US will have to leave quite a lot of bases around the world because countries won't see the benefit in cooperating with the US anymore (or will demand quite a lot of money or whatever to keep that going). This scenario would diminish the US ability to project power around the world a lot.

That said this might even fit Trump's "America First" policy of not wanting to care so much about other countries, but this would definitely have huge strategic implications that I don't believe even Trump is ready to accept. We would definitely see a new world order if that happens however

 

[That_Bloke]

The first point already is an invitation to every dictator to start a war and grab lands. China and Taiwan next and the West just bows down again?

Oh, they'll have a field day if Trump is elected and they're in the mood, but getting rid of Ukraine is absolutely on the cards for an eventual Trump mandate, imo.

Why not? Does bowing only works one way? On a more serious note, he's not best pals with China and Taiwan is too important for the US and the rest of the West to let it fall to the Chinese, even under Trump.

We aren't in 1924, such imperialist politics are absolutely unacceptable in 2024.

Do you realize the incredible irony of this sentence?

He can't pull out of NATO but it's in his power to ignore Article 5, if Putin attacks a NATO country.
Already his idiotic talks about not honoring the US commitments caused unrepairable damage to the alliance and are an invitation for Putin to become even more bold in his actions.

That's not going to happen. Firstly because the damage would be immense for the US and even a lunatic like him knows it. If not, the people who will run the country for him won't let him do it. You'd think that by now, people would be able to separate his drivel from he actually can do.

Secondly, there's a difference between attacking Ukraine or any other country that's not a NATO member and well, a NATO member. I think that you and many others, are vastly overestimating not only Russia's military capabilities but also its ability to project them. The Ukraine war already proved it, and as I already said, I don't believe that it's Putin's intention. And that's without even talking about a worldwide conflagration which nobody wants.

Trump is a fecking moron and train wreck.

No disagreement here.

 

[B. Munich]

That's not going to happen. Firstly because the damage would be immense for the US and even a lunatic like him knows it. If not, the people who will run the country for him won't let him do it. You'd think that by now, people would be able to separate his drivel from he actually can do.

Even if it's only pre election gibberish some hardliner in China, Russia, Iran or North Korea might be inclined to put his words to a test.
It's absolutely reckless to even play with such threats in the election campaign.

Do you realize the incredible irony of this sentence?

You tell me.

Secondly, there's a difference between attacking Ukraine or any other country that's not a NATO member and well, a NATO member. I think that you and many others, are vastly overestimating not only Russia's military capabilities but also its ability to project them. The Ukraine war already proved it, and as I already said, I don't believe that it's Putin's intention. And that's without even talking about a worldwide conflagration which nobody wants.

Taiwan isn't a NATO member as well. If Trump abandons the Ukraine and leaves Europe alone, do you think European countries will come up to support the US on Taiwan, if China dares to escalate?
Again Trump is playing with fire here.

Frankly, I was also in the camp thinking Putin was only bluffing and would never ever attack the Ukraine. Februar 24th proved me and many Germans to be totally wrong. Since then I wouldn't exclude anything when it comes to Putin. He left the rational path a long time ago.

 

[Simbo]

Its almost romantic.

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[africanspur]

And yet it's already changing due to Russia's influence. Brexit? Rise of far-right parties that are supported by Russia? After all the meddling that Russia is doing in election processes and thus trying to weaken western democracies, it's obvious they are in cold war with us. I don't think that Russia will attack any time soon NATO countries (although they might test the alliance by attacking Baltics), however if they succeed with land grab in Ukraine it will be a huge victory for them. It will send a message to everyone in the world that conquest through war is possible again. That international borders mean nothing.

What's to stop from other countries attacking neighbors? I firmly believe that if Russia wins it will lead to further destabilization of western democracies and unity. It will lead to rise more of autocratic leaders like Orban in Hungary. Democracies want peace because it helps their citizens, but autocrats love war as it entrenches their leadership. We are already seeing the rise of nationalism in many countries and where nationalists govern there is more chance of war.

I want to be wrong, but if Russia wins I wouldn't be surprised if there is another hot war in Europe (not necessary with Russia as a direct participant).

I'm not denying that if Russia wins in Ukraine it will be a huge victory for them. I'm also not denying that there is a rise of far right parties in Europe.

I'm merely saying that I don't think its particularly surprising that a Brit or French person is generally going to see this as much less an existential threat than an Estonian or Pole. Neither the Brit nor the Estonian are wrong, they're just different circumstances. That is the main part.

While Russia foments discord, I think its often used as a very convenient excuse. You can send me all the Russia produced misinformation you want to, I'm still not going to vote for Brexit or the conservatives or Le Pen or Wilders. Yet many are. The base underlying causes need to be there.

 

[africanspur]

Taiwan isn't a NATO member as well. If Trump abandons the Ukraine and leaves Europe alone, do you think European countries will come up to support the US on Taiwan, if China dares to escalate?
Again Trump is playing with fire here.

Frankly, I was also in the camp thinking Putin was only bluffing and would never ever attack the Ukraine. Februar 24th proved me and many Germans to be totally wrong. Since then I wouldn't exclude anything when it comes to Putin. He left the rational path a long time ago.

I'm almost certain no European countries, except perhaps the UK in its general desire/desperation to maintain the 'special relationship' will follow the USA into a military conflict with China over Taiwan if that happens. They're already doing significantly less than the USA is on a hot war on their own continent.

 

[That_Bloke]

Even if it's only pre election gibberish some hardliner in China, Russia, Iran or North Korea might be inclined to put his words to a test.
It's absolutely reckless to even play with such threats in the election campaign.

It's his way to tell the European countries to step up to the plate when it comes to NATO.

You tell me.

Take a closer look at the West lead by the US behaved across the world in the past 75 years and I'm sure you'll understand what I'm getting at.

Taiwan isn't a NATO member as well. If Trump abandons the Ukraine and leaves Europe alone, do you think European countries will come up to support the US on Taiwan, if China dares to escalate?
Again Trump is playing with fire here.

India, Japan, Australia and South Korea could fill in the gaps. But Europe would better fall in line and will do it, for their own sake.

Taiwan's economy is four time Ukraine's, a major thoroughfare for worldwide shipping and more importantly the main supplier of semi-conductors (about 70%) and advanced microchips (around 90%) in the world. Furthermore, you have the strategic position Taiwan occupies in the "First Island Chain", a vital cog in the defense system of the Philippines, Japan, and South Korea. China taking over Taiwan and controlling the Taiwan strait would give it the capacity to project its evergrowing Navy deep into the Pacific ocean, and directly threaten all the US allies in the region, something they aren't able to do right now.

Long story short, from a US point of view, Ukraine is expendable (kinda), Taiwan is not. Unless the West, particularly the US, wants to give China, which is the real competitor, the keys to the Indo-Pacific, an even greater part of the world economy's pie and look like real clowns. That's something even Trump understands.

Frankly, I was also in the camp thinking Putin was only bluffing and would never ever attack the Ukraine. Februar 24th proved me and many Germans to be totally wrong. Since then I wouldn't exclude anything when it comes to Putin. He left the rational path a long time ago.

Putin is a thug but a very rational one.

He's always been particularly fixated about Ukraine's place on the European chessboard, which was an open question since 1991. He considers it as part of Russia's backyard, a bit like Mexico for the US, for historic, economic and strategic reasons. Don't forget that all major invasions of Russia from the West went through Ukraine. He's determined to bring back Russia into the major league with a (big) say in world matters and never forgot the humiliation of the fall of the Soviet Union and its disastrous consequences. He repeatedly made it clear that any further attempts from Ukraine to get into NATO or encouragement from the West would trigger a Russian response. That Russia wouldn't bow down, to use your own expression. The West thought that he wouldn't do it. Until he did.

I'm not justifying what he did, it's wrong on every level, every country has the right to self-determination and choose its own path. But a demented idiot, Putin is not. People should be wise to that.

 

[Ekkie Thump]

I'm almost certain no European countries, except perhaps the UK in its general desire/desperation to maintain the 'special relationship' will follow the USA into a military conflict with China over Taiwan if that happens. They're already doing significantly less than the USA is on a hot war on their own continent.

I don't think this is really true. European countries are currently committed to sending around about 3x more in aid to Ukraine than the US is. It's just mostly financial aid. I think in total they spend more on specifically military aid too, but it's a lot closer - understandable given the scale of the US arms industry. That comparison changes if the US passes another aid package, but by that metric it's likely European countries will also be committing more too.

 

[That_Bloke]

I'm not denying that if Russia wins in Ukraine it will be a huge victory for them. I'm also not denying that there is a rise of far right parties in Europe.

I'm merely saying that I don't think its particularly surprising that a Brit or French person is generally going to see this as much less an existential threat than an Estonian or Pole. Neither the Brit nor the Estonian are wrong, they're just different circumstances. That is the main part.

While Russia foments discord, I think its often used as a very convenient excuse. You can send me all the Russia produced misinformation you want to, I'm still not going to vote for Brexit or the conservatives or Le Pen or Wilders. Yet many are. The base underlying causes need to be there.

Word.

 

[africanspur]

I don't think this is really true. European countries are currently committed to sending around about 3x more in aid to Ukraine than the US is. It's just mostly financial aid. I think in total they spend more on specifically military aid too, but it's a lot closer - understandable given the scale of the US arms industry. That comparison changes if the US passes another aid package, but by that metric it's likely European countries will also be committing more too.

I don't mean the USA as one bloc and the whole of Europe as another. I mean the USA as one country, despite not being on the continent and having generally less to lose from a rampaging Russia than European nations do (who are generally all also wealthy MEDCs), contributing quite a bit more than any individual European country.

 

[Ekkie Thump]

He's always been particularly fixated about Ukraine's place on the European chessboard, which was an open question since 1991. He considers it as part of Russia's backyard, a bit like Mexico for the US, for historic, economic and strategic reasons. Don't forget that all major invasions of Russia from the West went through Ukraine. He's determined to bring back Russia into the major league. He never forgot the humiliation of the fall of the Soviet Union and its consequences. He made it repeatedly clear that any further attempts from Ukraine to get into NATO or encouragement from the West would trigger a Russian response. That Russia wouldn't bow down, to use your own expression. The West thought that he wouldn't do it. Until he did.

I'm not justifying what he did, it's wrong on every level, every country has the right to self-determination and choose its own path. But a demented idiot, Putin is not.

This is a bit of an understatement. Sure there are big economic and strategic reasons, but fundamentally Putin sees Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltic States as part of a single great Slavic nation united by culture, language and spirit. At every turn he laments the breakup of pre-soviet empire - the result of the insidious machinations of Poles and Austrians. Have a gander at this history lesson he gives. Ukrainians as a separate people was an invention of the Poles; its very name means "the periphery", the modern nation created by Lenin, its borders defined by the Soviet and built on historical Russian land etc. As you read along you get the idea that Putin perceive's the very existence of a separate Ukraine as a slight on the Russian soul. It's not the fall of the Soviet Union that he laments, so much as the disfigurement it caused to the prior empire.

 

[NLunited]

Don‘t underestimate what Trump is capable of. If he gets elected, there will be no pushback from within the US government like last time, because he plans to replace all the key positions with loyalists willing to ignore the law.

It will be basically the end of democracy in the US. He will pull out of NATO for sure because he loves Putin, who helped him getting elected and is succeeding in dividing the US.

Have we all forgotten the insurrection at the Capitol? It was something that was unimaginable before it happened, and a big number of people were/are supportive of it.

It‘s essential to deal with Putin decisively. Unfortunately it will have to be done without full US support, because Congress can‘t pass anything currently because of the Republicans who have abandoned law and order, the constitution and democracy.

 

[Ekkie Thump]

I don't mean the USA as one bloc and the whole of Europe as another. I mean the USA as one country, despite not being on the continent and having generally less to lose from a rampaging Russia than European nations do (who are generally all also wealthy MEDCs), contributing quite a bit more than any individual European country.

Well that's a bit of a strange comparison given the size of the US to the size of any individual European country. Germany's providing half the US aid while having an economy 1/5 of the size. Uk's providing about 160% more of its gdp. Estonia's giving 14x as much. In relative terms Canada's providing the same amount of aid as the US.

 

[africanspur]

Well that's a bit of a strange comparison given the size of the US to the size of any individual European country. Germany's providing half the US aid while having an economy 1/5 of the size. Uk's providing about 160% more of its gdp. Estonia's giving 14x as much. In relative terms Canada's providing the same amount of aid as the US.

Its only strange in a context where we've completely internalised and normalised the concept of the USA being the world's eternal policeman. Not at all strange if you're a farmer in Alabama or a banker in NY wondering why your your country is sending so much money to a country and conflict that doesn't materially affect your day to day.

It makes complete sense to me that European countries should be taking up the overwhelming majority of the slack when it comes to defending a European country against a European aggressor, just as I would expect the USA to take up the overwhelming majority of the slack in a South American conflict or how I expect no European country other than perhaps the UK in name to actually do something concrete in a China Taiwan conflict, because they would not see the Western Pacific as 'their neighbourhood', while Japan would (and should) be far more invested.

Of course the USA is generally very globalist so they get involved in all of the above regardless, at present anyway.

 

[That_Bloke]

This is a bit of an understatement. Sure there are big economic and strategic reasons, but fundamentally Putin sees Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltic States as part of a single great Slavic nation united by culture, language and spirit. At every turn he laments the breakup of pre-soviet empire - the result of the insidious machinations of Poles and Austrians. Have a gander at this history lesson he gives. Ukrainians as a separate people was an invention of the Poles; its very name means "the periphery", the modern nation created by Lenin, its borders defined by the Soviet and built on historical Russian land etc. As you read along you get the idea that Putin perceive's the very existence of a separate Ukraine as a slight on the Russian soul. It's not the fall of the Soviet Union that he laments, so much as the disfigurement it caused to the prior empire.

You make sensible points with which I partly agree and I'm well aware of the liberties he took with History.

There's something common in every autocracy or dictatorship, the discourse served for domestic propaganda purposes including the appeal to a glorious past and rewriting History, which you have to separate from the actual facts. Belarus is already under Russian influence and Putin will never accept Ukraine as part of the Western sphere. That's not even conceivable for him and he will fight tooth and nail to prevent it. However "integrating" the whole Ukraine to Russian territory is not part of the plan. A regime change including some nips at Ukraine's territory? Sure. But anything else is fantasy. It simply is not feasible unless the Ukrainians agree to it and we both know that it's not the case.

The Baltic States are part of NATO, therefore untouchable. They're off-limits, their populations firmly against Russia and Putin knows it. As well as the fact that directly attacking NATO is committing suicide and serves no purpose other than potentially triggering WWIII. He wants a "strong", influential Russia, not a pile of rubble.

I refuse to give into the mass hysteria about an incoming Russian invasion of Europe or NATO members, whichever they are. It's utter rubbish to my eyes, Russia neither has the means nor the will to do it.

 

[nimic]

I refuse to give into the mass hysteria about an incoming Russian invasion of Europe or NATO members, whichever they are. It's utter rubbish to my eyes, Russia neither has the means nor the will to do it.

Replace the highlighted part with "Ukraine" and you get the most common opinion on February 23rd 2022, both on here and among political scientists and other experts.