probably one of the reasons they feel relatively confident that Germany, France and Italy wont be up for much of a retaliation to a "limited incursion"
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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There was talk about an offer to let Russia inspect NATO missile installations, which is reportedly something Putin's wanted for a while. Doubt it's enough of a face saver for Putin just yet, assuming he's looking for one.
Yep. And if anybody knows how and when to weaponize Winter, it’s the Russians.probably one of the reasons they feel relatively confident that Germany, France and Italy wont be up for much of a retaliation to a "limited incursion"
Horseshit.
There are many accounts of Ukrainians keeping calm and getting on with their lives for sure, but at the same time they are preparing for the worst. It is not normal. If they think there is only a 5% chance of this happening, that number is way too high and needs to be countered
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probably one of the reasons they feel relatively confident that Germany, France and Italy wont be up for much of a retaliation to a "limited incursion"
Need the other side of the figures to make that conclusion. Need to see what poriton of Euro gas imports come from Russia, alongside potential alternatives, if there are any.
This graph mostly highlights the reliance on Europe that Russian gas export income has. They need the trade too remember, they can't just build pipelines overnight to sell it elsewhere.
Yep, ≈ 40% of Europe's gas is from Russia so its reliance is not nearly as much as Russia on it for exports.
That 40% is pretty important in the middle of winter though.
After 2014 most countries took measures to reduce the impact of a sudden stop.
Yes, like liquefied natural gas from the US... but it is doubtful that there's enough port facilities to offset a full shut off of Russian gas, if that should happen.
On the plus side, the political fallout of all this could be a more rapid movement of Europe away from any reliance at all on Russian natural gas.
That should have happened 7 years ago, but of course cash is king.
Preaching the truth there.
And Russia is worried about NATO encirclement.
Which is what Germany and France are doing while asking foreigners(US and the UK) what they are talking about.
Maybe they should stop jumping into bed with uncle yankee sam thousands of miles away in order to antagonize their neighboring country ?
Russia isn’t cutting off gas any more than the US are cutting off swift. (In the event of one, the other will almost certainly happen though.)
Encirclement? (A) Russia will never be "encircled" by NATO, that's just a fact of maps. (B) Russia's western border is already lined by NATO states, from top to bottom. (C) Russia needs to stop behaving in ways that make countries want to join NATO.
Russia made this the USs business when they specifically made this about NATO's strength. This isn't just about Ukraine's territorial integrity
Which is irrelevant to the points made.
What is it that Germany and France are doing which is that different from US and UK?
Are they not after the same thing.
Sticking together on that topic which was the point made by TR? The US and UK are seemingly not sticking with the rest since they decided to make claims about an imminent invasion without explaining to their allies how they ended up with that conclusion while looking at the same intel.
Bull shit. You seem to know more about this than the Ukranian President and their defence Minister. They are on record in saying this.
How do you know they have the same intel?
The PM and foreign minister have a clear interest in lowering tensions, that isn't necessarily the same as what most Ukrainians think or worry is going to happen.
I personally don't but that's the question asked by France earlier. They said that based on the intel that they all have(presumably the ones shared), they don't have the same interpretation, so either the US and UK have something else that they didn't share or something doesn't add up.
It is their fecking country. They do not want a war and have absolute right to decide what is right for their country.
Was going to say that same thing.
And itel is just what it says. Information gleened. It depends on the interpretation and how it is being used.
Intel and the actual Russian intention are 2 different things.
I think the suggested implication here is that they have no say in whether or not there's going to be a war, but that they do have a say in how they are going to prepare for it.
Zelensky is trying not to cause mass panic and tank their economy, while in the same time he is doing the right thing in training civilians for dealing with emergencies and also for resistance. Don't see much wrong with that.
They tried.
They managed to, as well, at great cost (twice). They didn't ever try to make Finland a Soviet Republic, though.
Well they actually took the area that is now St Petersburg from Sweden back in the early 1700's but that was before Finland became an independent country.
What? When didn’t they. Many Finnish schools are still in Russian! This is a 1913 Finnish coin.
This looks like a full on invasion of not just the historical Russian speaking areas, but of all of Ukraine (with the possible exception of Lviv and Polish leaning areas in the far NW). I'm guessing the dots in the bottom left are Putin's forces in Trasnistria, which he has been conveniently keeping there over time for a moment like this - to take Odessa and nearby cities.
What? When didn’t they. Many Finnish schools are still in Russian! This is a 1913 Finnish coin.
1913 was half a decade years before the Soviet Union existed.
If Democracy would just politely capitulate to authoritarianism, then encirclements and invasions wouldn’t be necessary.
There aren’t yet, but there can be in the future. There’s enough LNG available from shale to completely reduce European reliance on Russian gas to levels that can’t be politically exploited by neo-imperialists nut jobs like Putin.
The Europeans just need to invest in the transport infrastructure and regassification terminals at key ports to make it happen.
But remember its Russia that is being encircled.
I think Putin has asked his generals to prepared all options.
Equally is if was just a very localised incursion into the Russian speaking parts probably setting up troop movements to look like a full on invasion is logical as Ukraine then has to spread its limited forces much thinner making that localised attack far easier.