Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[VorZakone]

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Some Tom Clancy shit going on here.

 

[VorZakone]

More from Bellingcat:

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[Simbo]

Yeah, I know, but with new piplines it is the volume which is new. That goes for other Asian markets, too.

Also:

Square this:

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With this:

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We'll see how long it lasts. There are various ways to manipulate one's currency. Putin and his crew have $billions, maybe hundreds of billions of foreign cash stashed around the world they could be now buying rubles with. Nobody really knows as their whole operation revolves around financial secrecy, I'm sure the sanctions haven't got all of it.

I'm curious to know if the UK's sanctions cover the likes of the Cayman Islands, etc.

 

[spiriticon]

I’m not sure I saw anyone warning that the Ruble would hold its ground and even bounce back a degree a month in, before suddenly tumbling at a later date. Happy to be corrected, as I am a bit miffed that the sanctions haven’t more damage to their currency in the short term.

Russia built their economy like a fortress. It was built to withstand an initial shock. Bank runs didn't happen very much after week 1 because they started to ban it. They then banned people taking money out of the country, raised interest rates to 20%, and also limited the ability convert rubles into foreign currency within Russia itself. Then of course you have the Central Bank still having half of its reserves to prop up the currency when it falls, which is basically what they do every morning (I've been observing this daily for the last month, and the value always jumps a lot in the early morning before trading starts)

But I think what they didn't expect was the war to drag on and on and on. This changes the outlook for them significantly. Now they have to use more extreme measures to create more demand in the ruble, such as by asking people to pay for gas in rubles.

We have to be patient with the economic strategy. It will only work if we keep the sanctions hard for a long time. A few months of sanctions will not do them any great harm at all. Biden implied this when he said "Sanctions itself do not deter, it's the maintenance of sanctions that will have the desired impact"

 

[MadMike]

Nothing like a cup of Uncle Vlad’s finest polonium tea to lift the spirits.

 

[Water Melon]

Russia built their economy like a fortress. It was built to withstand an initial shock. Bank runs didn't happen very much after week 1 because they started to ban it. They then banned people taking money out of the country, raised interest rates to 20%, and also limited the ability convert rubles into foreign currency within Russia itself. Then of course you have the Central Bank still having half of its reserves to prop up the currency when it falls, which is basically what they do every morning (I've been observing this daily for the last month, and the value always jumps a lot in the early morning before trading starts)

But I think what they didn't expect was the war to drag on and on and on. This changes the outlook for them significantly. Now they have to use more extreme measures to create more demand in the ruble, such as by asking people to pay for gas in rubles.

We have to be patient with the economic strategy. It will only work if we keep the sanctions hard for a long time. A few months of sanctions will not do them any great harm at all.

Like a fortress, really? When was the last time you have been to Russia?

 

[spiriticon]

Like a fortress, really? When was the last time you have been to Russia?

Not that recently but that's what I've been reading. It wasn't built on growth like normal economies, but rather the ability to withstand a huge shock. I guess in that sense we should have all seen this coming when they started to stockpile a feckton of gold and foreign currencies like yuan.

It's ok though, we learn. If we see them (or China) building up crypto, yuan, rupee and precious metals again in the future, while reducing USD and Euros, then we know someone is about to get a beating.

 

[VorZakone]

Abramovich confirming.

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[Water Melon]

Not that recently but that's what I've been reading. It wasn't built on growth like normal economies, but rather the ability to withstand a huge shock. I guess in that sense we should have all seen this coming when they started to stockpile a feckton of gold and foreign currencies like yuan.

It's ok though, we learn. If we see them (or China) building up crypto, yuan, rupee and precious metals again in the future, while reducing USD and Euros, then we know someone is about to get a beating.

Mate, they are sinking. People are depressed, can not access their hard currency accounts. Assets frozen, prices are rising and it is still just a beginning. Oligarchs are well pissed off, Russia's largest companies are losing value like crazy. Sane people there also realize that things will only get worse, while around half of the population still feel for and support the Great Vlad who is fighting against the Evil USA and their cronies.

 

[spiriticon]

Mate, they are sinking. People are depressed, can not access their hard currency accounts. Assets frozen, prices are rising and it is still just a beginning. Oligarchs are well pissed off, Russia's largest companies are losing value hell lot. Sane people there also realize that things will only get worse, while around half of the population still feel for and support the Great Vlad who is fighting against the Evil USA and their cronies.

Yes, it pisses the people off but it is also exactly why the ruble is staying firm in value. Ruble can't fall if you're not allowed to sell!

Putin doesn't care that the people are pissed off, if they get too loud he just sends his hatchet men to give them a good beating. They will learn to love the ruble and every single kopek coin they have. Lurve it.

 

[Water Melon]

Yes, it pisses the people off but it is also exactly why the ruble is staying firm in value. Ruble can't fall if you're not allowed to sell!

Putin doesn't care that the people are pissed off, if they get too loud he just sends his hatchet men to give them a good beating.

It will only get worse economically. Business are shutting down and leaving, people are losing their jobs. Construction dead, aviation and heavy industry are on their knees. Logistics are fecked while oil money is likely to drop further. Their people are fleeing in tens of thousands to countries with less income.

 

[tomaldinho1]

I’m not sure I saw anyone warning that the Ruble would hold its ground and even bounce back a degree a month in, before suddenly tumbling at a later date. Happy to be corrected, as I am a bit miffed that the sanctions haven’t more damage to their currency in the short term.

My understanding (and I’m by no means an economist so happy for someone to educate us all here) was they’d use their vast reserves to prop up the ruble whilst being very cautious with the stock market to avoid volatility. After that it was just a case of how long they can keep that up and eventually ride it out (countries lose interest, roll back sanctions, new trade deals etc.) or the economy tanks.

 

[spiriticon]

It will only get worse economically. Business are shutting down and leaving, people are losing their jobs. Construction dead, aviation and heavy industry are on their knees. Logistics are fecked while oil money is likely to drop further. Their people are fleeing in tens of thousands to countries with less income.

I agree it will get worse. But that takes time to happen, won't happen in a few weeks.

A lot of businesses have merely suspended their activities in Russia for the sake of good PR, but not pulled out completely. They are playing the waiting game to see if sanctions are lifted and normal business can continue. We need to give the message that the sanctions are here to stay, at least for the medium-term. Then you will start to see a big exodus as the accountants start to do their maths.

But I can already start to see the beginnings of a small effect. I think today Heineken and Carlsberg have defo pulled out now, likely because the cost of suspending things now becomes too great. More to follow hopefully.

 

[TMDaines]

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[VorZakone]

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[Sarni]

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Which was weird take to begin with when you consider the size of the country, strength of Ukrainian army and 44 million population. It took them longer to take Chechenya which is absolutely tiny in comparison, and they couldn’t hold it anyway.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

Abramovich confirming.

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Great way to disassociate himself from the Putin regime.

Very murky.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

Careless handling of or mild exposure to some of these very potent substances can result in symptoms of poisoning.

 

[stefan92]

Great way to disassociate himself from the Putin regime.

Very murky.

How often have we to go through this? He was never close to Putin, under Putin his influence diminished. This distance also made Ukraine approach him to act as a mediator.

 

[Pintu]

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[GlastonSpur]

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[TMDaines]

fecking grim:

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[Frosty]

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[TMDaines]

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It buries the lede a bit with Russia wanting Donbas and Crimea.

 

[Sarni]

It buries the lede a bit with Russia wanting Donbas and Crimea.

They will obviously never give back Crimea but I reckon when pushed they may eventually agree on neutrality of Donbas or even ‘give it back’ to Ukraine (doubtful).

 

[Revan]

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I thought that recognizing the Russian language as official language would be the easiest request to accept, considering that many Ukrainians speak Russian anyway and/or are bilingual.

Giving Dombas region is the most difficult request.

 

[GlastonSpur]

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If this is accurate - and I have big doubts - it would be a huge indication of the military losses suffered by Russia .... to the point where, far from any Russian insistence that Ukraine must be a neutral country, it can join the EU and have its future insurance from further attacks bolstered if needed by troops from several NATO countries.

 

[GlastonSpur]

Channel 4 News: Russia Ukraine Conflict - Ukrainian counterattacks retake territory, heading towards Kherson in the south

 

[Beans]

The thefts of over 500 passenger planes is being called the biggest in history.

 

[Sir Matt]

The thefts of over 500 passenger planes is being called the biggest in history.

Hope they like flying in Russian-made death traps once their Airbuses and Boeings become unusable.

 

[GlastonSpur]

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[VorZakone]

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[Sir Matt]

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Very likely not beyond the minimum range for the missile to arm.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

The thefts of over 500 passenger planes is being called the biggest in history.

It's a weird kind of theft. Obviously a lot of value for the true owners but what is Russia going to do, sell them? They're depreciating assets that require a lot of mechanical upkeep that Russia won't likely be able to maintain.

 

[VorZakone]

British MoD name-checking Wagner.

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[sun_tzu]

Hope they like flying in Russian-made death traps once their Airbuses and Boeings become unusable.

I'm guessing they will struggle to get spare parts so it might not be too long till the Airbuses and Boeing's become hard to service

 

[VorZakone]

What's the difference between first hand reporting and people telling them directly?

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[GlastonSpur]

I'm guessing they will struggle to get spare parts so it might not be too long till the Airbuses and Boeing's become hard to service

Not only this, but no company will ever lease aircraft to Russia again as long as Putin's gangsters remain in power.

 

[stefan92]

I thought that recognizing the Russian language as official language would be the easiest request to accept, considering that many Ukrainians speak Russian anyway and/or are bilingual.

Giving Dombas region is the most difficult request.

IF this should be true it is amazing. The status of the Russian language might look like a simple thing on one hand, but its symbolic implications are huge.

Having the same language ties countries together, focusing on different languages will separate them further. Not demanding official status for the Russian language is in a way equivalent to giving up the claim on the country as a whole and accepting that they are not "lost brothers". Together with accepting Ukrainian EU membership this essentially means that Ukraine (at least what remains of it) will be part of the European/Western alliances.

 

[frostbite]

Terrible things happen in Mariupol. We have reports from multiple sources. And yet, there are no large scale protests inside Russia! Would you imagine what would happen in London if the British army was doing this today?

From this, I infer that the large majority of Russians support these actions of their government. I really feel stunned that there has been so little protest from Russians, either inside Russia or outside. Why does this happen? Do the majority of Russians consider Ukraine "a fake country" so they have the right to do whatever to it? But even if they believe that, why would anyone accept all this bombardment, the killings, the deportations? I really do not understand this.

I have asked this question before but I got no replies. Are there any Russians that can give us some perspective?