Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[Mciahel Goodman]

Some progress maybe... you should probably watch the interview yourself though and listen to Zelensky of you want a true sense of where these negotiations are up to. He does not give off a great impression of 'progress' in these talks. Your man Ivan leaves a few relevant points out of his thread, all his credentials getting in the way maybe.

The demilitarization is hardly "contentious", it will quite simply never be up for discussion. To quote Zelensky - "That is incomprehensible to me, we would not sit at the table if that is what is being discussed".

Any non-NATO or neutral promise would be a constitutional change, he states this would take at least a year. Multiple referendum's required, they could offer Russia guarantee's, all Russian troops would have to leave Ukraine before this process could begin and guarantees signed by 3rd party countries.

Non-Nuclear guarantee would need to be a far more serious agreement than the Budapest Memorandum.

He rules out taking back pre-Feb 24th occupied terriories with military means but he's not conceding them, alludes to continued diplomatic efforts. He also however issues a subtle warning that this is his opinion on the matter and that future elected leaders may not hold that view.

Basically nothing would happen unless/until Russian forces are back behind pre 24/2 lines and he avoids the question about what if the referendums say no. A line of dialog is always good but unless something dramatic changes on the ground there's no point paying much attention to these negotiations.

Thanks.

 

[RedTiger]

Don't know how true but blowing up on twitter

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Raoul]

That said, I do think the West/US/NATO needs to consider what it wants the future to look like after this - what is the endgame here?

I think its pretty clear, at least from a US perspective.

- Russian troops out of Ukraine and back to pre-invasion positions (at a minimum).
- Continued sanctions that keep the economic boot to Putin's throat to destabilize him from within

 

[GlastonSpur]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[VorZakone]

Don't know how true but blowing up on twitter

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Wow, if true that'd be a huge story.

 

[Simbo]

Just found out about that video with Russian POW getting shot in their legs by supposedly Ukrainian forces. Bellingcat are going to check that out but it looks like it might be genuine.

Zelensky’s advisor, Aleksey Arestovich, also have commented on that, saying that it looks like a potentially very serious war crime and that it will be thoroughly investigated.

Looks like a godsend for Russian propaganda but, sadly, I won’t be surprised if that will turn out to be true — the longer the war goes on, the worse it’s going to get, for both sides.

Horrible.

The jury is still out. Thread here analysing it, lots of points suggesting fake. This would not be unprecedented for Russia if we remember the elaborate staged videos in the days running up to the invasion.

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Mciahel Goodman]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

The biggest news today. G7 (EU+North America) has said it will not pay Russia for gas in rubles. Russia has replied that it will now shut off gas supplies as they will not supply "for free". The Russians are deadly serious, too, imo. Not saying the G7 should fold, but the economic fallout is going to be immense.

 

[sullydnl]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[TMDaines]

Bellingcat reporting it

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[VorZakone]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Full story has been published. But I can't read WSJ articles.

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Raoul]

Polonium FC

 

[AaronRedDevil]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Holy shit

 

[GlastonSpur]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

The biggest news today. G7 (EU+North America) has said it will not pay Russia for gas in rubles. Russia has replied that it will now shut off gas supplies as they will not supply "for free". The Russians are deadly serious, too, imo. Not saying the G7 should fold, but the economic fallout is going to be immense.

The bigger fallout will be on the Russians, because they will lose income that they can now ill-afford to lose, whilst the European economies are far stronger than that of Russia and so better able to absorb and withstand the economic pressure. It will also accelerate moves towards European independence from Russian energy supplies.

 

[TMDaines]

Just came to post it, watching now. Has English subtitles.


Edit: Now fully subtitled in English

This is now fully subtitled for English-speaking viewers. Will watch second half later.

 

[Raoul]

Full story has been published. But I can't read WSJ articles.

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Can't read it since its paywalled.

 

[Mciahel Goodman]

The bigger fallout will be on the Russians, because they will lose income that they can now ill-afford to lose, whilst the European economies are far stronger than that of Russia and so better able to absorb and withstand the economic pressure. It will also accelerate moves towards European independence from Russian energy supplies.

Yes, this is true, but Russia is already on a war-footing for the duration of the Ukrainian invasion. EU alternatives to Russian energy are at least two years away. It will be catastrophic in the economic short-term unless they reach a "third way" which seems unlikely as the entire point of the ruble demand is to say to European countries that the sanctions on the Russian economy are illegitimate. Russia, meanwhile, will move to the Asian market. Already constructing new pipelines in China.

 

[calodo2003]

Bellingcat reporting it

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Christ.

 

[UncleBob]

Full story has been published. But I can't read WSJ articles.

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Bizarre if true

 

[VorZakone]

Taken from Reddit comments:

Mr. Abramovich and the Ukrainian negotiators, who include Crimean Tatar lawmaker Rustem Umerov, have since improved and their lives aren’t in danger, the people said. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, who has met with Mr. Abramovich, wasn’t affected, they said. Mr. Zelensky’s spokesman said he had no information about any suspected poisoning.

Western experts who looked into the incident said it was hard to determine whether the symptoms were caused by a chemical or biological agent or by some sort of electromagnetic-radiation attack, according to the people familiar.

 

[Raoul]

Taken from Reddit comments:

This feels like a predictably botched attempt at using Roman to unwittingly carry poison for Zelinskyy.

 

[UncleBob]

Yes, this is true, but Russia is already on a war-footing for the duration of the Ukrainian invasion. EU alternatives to Russian energy are at least two years away. It will be catastrophic in the economic short-term unless they reach a "third way" which seems unlikely as the entire point of the ruble demand is to say to European countries that the sanctions on the Russian economy are illegitimate. Russia, meanwhile, will move to the Asian market. Already constructing new pipelines in China.

They've exported gas to China for some time now..It's nothing new.

 

[TMDaines]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Mciahel Goodman]

They've exported gas to China for some time now..It's nothing new.

Yeah, I know, but with new piplines it is the volume which is new. That goes for other Asian markets, too.

Also:

Square this:

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

With this:

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Krakenzero]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

The biggest news today. G7 (EU+North America) has said it will not pay Russia for gas in rubles. Russia has replied that it will now shut off gas supplies as they will not supply "for free". The Russians are deadly serious, too, imo. Not saying the G7 should fold, but the economic fallout is going to be immense.

The G7 should be able to:
-Use their reserves
-Buy more from other countries (logistics issues aside)
-Diversify their energy matrix
-Use a little less gas

On the other hand, how is Russia going to substitute the money income? Are China or India going to absorb all of the remaining demand AKA pay the same for resources they don't need?

 

[Mciahel Goodman]

The G7 should be able to:
-Use their reserves
-Buy more from other countries (logistics issues aside)
-Diversify their energy matrix
-Use a little less gas

On the other hand, how is Russia going to substitute the money income? Are China or India going to absorb all of the remaining demand AKA pay the same for resources they don't need?

They can use reserves without a problem but what other countries? OPEC sets the controls and Iran isn't out of the dark yet plus Venezuela is only in the process of coming back online (plus Russia has the largest foreign stake in proven Venezuelean oil reserves). Diversification will take time and using less gas amounts to rationing. Political suicide (ask Carter).

 

[Sarni]

Yeah, I know, but with new piplines it is the volume which is new. That goes for other Asian markets, too.

Also:

Square this:

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

With this:

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

There have been many jokes about how Ruble is collapsing and people won’t be able to buy anything with it but it’s mostly repeated by people who haven’t really kept track. After initial impact there’s very little in that already, Zloty has basically lost 8% vs Dollar since the start of the war and to see Rubel drop by 20% is quite insignificant compared to what many anticipated.

I think many have overestimated the extent of harm sanctions are going to do to Russian economy. It will cripple it, there will be slowdown but it may not be nearly as catastrophic as advertised because many will still be finding loopholes to trade with Russia.

 

[Rajma]

Yes, this is true, but Russia is already on a war-footing for the duration of the Ukrainian invasion. EU alternatives to Russian energy are at least two years away. It will be catastrophic in the economic short-term unless they reach a "third way" which seems unlikely as the entire point of the ruble demand is to say to European countries that the sanctions on the Russian economy are illegitimate. Russia, meanwhile, will move to the Asian market. Already constructing new pipelines in China.

Keep dreaming, Russian new pipeline to China won’t be ready for at least another decade. They’ll crash hard. It will also be sold at a massive discount, probably just about enough to breakeven.

 

[TMDaines]

There have been many jokes about how Ruble is collapsing and people won’t be able to buy anything with it but it’s mostly repeated by people who haven’t really kept track. After initial impact there’s very little in that already, Zloty has basically lost 8% vs Dollar since the start of the war and to see Rubel drop by 20% is quite insignificant compared to what many anticipated.

I think many have overestimated the extent of harm sanctions are going to do to Russian economy. It will cripple it, there will be slowdown but it may not be nearly as catastrophic as advertised because many will still be finding loopholes to trade with Russia.

Right now the Pound has lost more than 5% versus the Ruble in the last month.

 

[spiriticon]

The ruble is maintaining its value due to the draconian controls put upon it. You are allowed to buy, but selling for foreign currency is made extremely difficult, if not impossible. This generates an artificial demand for the currency.

While these controls do maintain the value of the ruble in the short term, it makes economic growth very difficult.

 

[Smores]

The G7 should be able to:
-Use their reserves
-Buy more from other countries (logistics issues aside)
-Diversify their energy matrix
-Use a little less gas

On the other hand, how is Russia going to substitute the money income? Are China or India going to absorb all of the remaining demand AKA pay the same for resources they don't need?

Well China does need it they'll take up the slack for sure. LNG is only a tiny portion of their energy mix and they plan to make it a sizeable portion as it's the best route to meet climate targets.

 

[Boavista]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

The biggest news today. G7 (EU+North America) has said it will not pay Russia for gas in rubles. Russia has replied that it will now shut off gas supplies as they will not supply "for free". The Russians are deadly serious, too, imo. Not saying the G7 should fold, but the economic fallout is going to be immense.

Yes, this is true, but Russia is already on a war-footing for the duration of the Ukrainian invasion. EU alternatives to Russian energy are at least two years away. It will be catastrophic in the economic short-term unless they reach a "third way" which seems unlikely as the entire point of the ruble demand is to say to European countries that the sanctions on the Russian economy are illegitimate. Russia, meanwhile, will move to the Asian market. Already constructing new pipelines in China.

In the short term Europe has gas reserves, which should last a few months at least, maybe more. It's spring now, so the need for heating decreases. Also Russia has large foreign currency reserves but half of that is frozen and the rest won't last indefinitely to both prop up their currency and keep the war efforts going. Overall I think Europe's gas reserves will probably outlast the Russians' timeline for this war. Without gas income presumably that financial time constraint will become even more pressing.

 

[GlastonSpur]

Well China does need it they'll take up the slack for sure. LNG is only a tiny portion of their energy mix and they plan to make it a sizeable portion as it's the best route to meet climate targets.

In order to find market share, Russia is now forced to sell its energy products at discounted prices compared to those from elsewhere.

 

[spiriticon]

In the short term Europe has gas reserves, which should last a few months at least, maybe more. It's spring now, so the need for heating decreases. Also Russia has large foreign currency reserves but half of that is frozen and the rest won't last indefinitely to both prop up their currency and keep the war efforts going. Overall I think Europe's gas reserves will probably outlast the Russians' timeline for this war. Without gas income presumably that financial time constraint will become even more pressing.

I was thinking exactly that. Demand for gas should be decreasing heading into the summer.

Can Russia afford to cut its money tree until next winter? Can it even fund the war that long?

 

[Smores]

In order to find market share, Russia is now forced to sell its energy products at discounted prices compared to those from elsewhere.

A win win for China. I said sometime ago in the climate thread that they'd be upheaval as China tries to secure more gas, as it happens Europe has wilfully turned away from Russian gas anyway. The US wins, China wins. Europe loses.

That said gas pales to the export value of oil and I'm not sure they'll take that slack up. India might.

 

[sun_tzu]

The G7 should be able to:
-Use their reserves
-Buy more from other countries (logistics issues aside)
-Diversify their energy matrix
-Use a little less gas

On the other hand, how is Russia going to substitute the money income? Are China or India going to absorb all of the remaining demand AKA pay the same for resources they don't need?

Well if the g7 are going to buy more from other countries and there isn't currently a huge over supply then India and China are going to have to buy more from Russia aren't they?

 

[GlastonSpur]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[tomaldinho1]

There have been many jokes about how Ruble is collapsing and people won’t be able to buy anything with it but it’s mostly repeated by people who haven’t really kept track. After initial impact there’s very little in that already, Zloty has basically lost 8% vs Dollar since the start of the war and to see Rubel drop by 20% is quite insignificant compared to what many anticipated.

I think many have overestimated the extent of harm sanctions are going to do to Russian economy. It will cripple it, there will be slowdown but it may not be nearly as catastrophic as advertised because many will still be finding loopholes to trade with Russia.

But why would anyone think the rouble would have collapsed yet - we know Putin was stockpiling wealth for this very scenario? The question is how much is the ruble being propped up by reserves and for how long can it go on - the graph will look like a cliff edge if we ever find out the answer.

 

[TMDaines]

But why would anyone think the rouble would have collapsed yet - we know Putin was stockpiling wealth for this very scenario? The question is how much is the ruble being propped up by reserves and for how long can it go on - the graph will look like a cliff edge if we ever find out the answer.

I’m not sure I saw anyone warning that the Ruble would hold its ground and even bounce back a degree a month in, before suddenly tumbling at a later date. Happy to be corrected, as I am a bit miffed that the sanctions haven’t more damage to their currency in the short term.

 

[TMDaines]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[harms]

The jury is still out. Thread here analysing it, lots of points suggesting fake. This would not be unprecedented for Russia if we remember the elaborate staged videos in the days running up to the invasion.

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Oh, yeah, it’s obviously possible
that it’s simply a fake made up by the Russian side.