Alright, that makes more sense.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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It sounds like you're basing your opinion on some shallow media articles rather than an in depth analysis of what's actually going if you took terms like "crippled" seriously which no economists I am aware of ever used, maybe some politicians for hype. No one serious expected sanctions to cripple anything, but they have narrowed a lot of choices for Russia.
I'd also disagree that after the war, everyone will flock to trade again. Russia can't just recover from how it's repositioned its economy long term. As I said, it's too dependent on resource expectation, sacrificed innovation for the short term boost of 8% of GDP dedicated to military that's going to be hard to shift back to an equivalent peacetime economy and I doubt the sanctions will be removed when the war ends which will limit their trade.
Seems like the sanctions aren't even being enforced to the fullest. Reasons may vary per country.
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Depending on what you regard as a Russian win but I get your point of view.
For a lot of them war started in 1995 or even later.
One thing guaranteed in this life, every several pages some Serbian poster will say ‘if Kosovo can be independent, inject unrelated nonsense after that’.
What is this supposed to mean? A lot of innovations come from the military and are then translated into civilian use
Yes but it has to be a sustainable amount of investment into the military because otherwise it cripples the rest of your economy and/or state finances. It's what ended the cold war - the US/NATO could afford their investment into the military, the SU couldn't keep up with their peaceful economy, had to invest a growing share into the military to keep up with the West and therefore tumbled into economical collapse.
Interesting! This report from last month ranks Russia's defense spending at just 5.9% of GDP. Not sure where the 8% figure hails from?
5.9% would be for the end of 2023. I don't know where the 8% figure is from, but there's a missing 4-5 months where it could fit in.
I don't know that either and my comment was more general that there is a limit for how much makes sense for the progress of a country - which I also don't know in numbers but obviously it exists
It's not only goods. Kyrgyzstan has become central to most sanctions evasion. Back in December when Biden authorised secondary sanctions on Chinese banks, some payments from our defence companies weren't going through to China. They weren't being rejected, they were just being put on a kind of hold while Chinese banks were a bit spooked about accepting payment and needed time to assess the risk. Now, so much of Russian finance to China goes via Krygyz banks. Even my wife's company (German-owned), which has nothing to do with defence, has opened accounts in Kyrgyzstan to send payments to European companies and banks; the very same companies and banks which have announcements on their websites about how much they "condemn Russia's brutal war of aggression". As those charts you've posted show, everyone's doing it and everyone knows it's going on. It's just one more bit of hypocritical bullshit in a war that's been full of it.
Yeah I meant 6% sorry for not checking. My point still stands though, as that money is going to just churning out more of what they have/lost.
I live in Poland in a city with the most number of Ukrainian refugees and immigrants and overall interact a lot with Ukrainians due to nature of my work.
Over the past few months, I've had several discussions about the war with them, men or women and here are my most honest observations from what I've been told:
- Almost none of them believes Ukraine can get their territory back. All they talk about is ending the war before they lose even more men and territory. I had a haircut today and my hairdresser, Daria from Kherson, was saying how her family has moved to Poland too. She said, "I've accepted that we're never going back. Our home is permanently gone, so we have to make new home here."
- The mood among the men is even more intense, especially after the recent consular services ban. I have a good friend of 4 years, here, he's been living in Poland since 2015. He's furious. He says: "I absolutely hate the Russian regime, but what our gov't is doing is crazy. Look at the size of Russia! How can we expect to beat them as our population shrinks further and further and we don't have anywhere near as many resources as we do. Everyday more and more people die. For what? For reaching the same conclusion or worse than can be reached right now? And now it's focusing on people like me and hundreds of thousand more Ukrainian men who've been living here for years. Long before the war!? Only a very deluded person (Zelensky) can believe we can get major territories back, let alone Crimea. Everyday I see on Telegram videos of random bystander men being kidnapped at bus stations or grocery stores to enlist and go to the front-line. It's crazy !! How are these soldiers supposed to have motivation to fight?
- There is another group that genuinely now believe Zelensky has always been a Russian asset. my Ex is from Odessa (she lives here in Poland) and she was saying that in Odessan cycles now there is genuine rumours that Zelensky has always been an FSB asset. How he was so unprepared for the invasion, he didn't heed to warnings of Western Intelligence services, how he denied advise of NATO generals regarding the failed counter-offensive effort, how he's let major corruption run rampant in the personnel and how, this part very sad: "He's selling our future.There is no winning for us in this war. Everyday it continues, we'll lose more. We're left with an unpayable debt, our most fertile lands sold to American corporations, and our bravest and most capable generation of men either dead or on the run who'll never come back to Ukraine due to fear of being prosecuted escaping draft. This consular services ban just ensure more and more Ukrainians will never return home even after it's over.
No one wants to die. That's what I gather from my conversations with lots of Ukrainian men here. It's all nice for us to say: "Western weapons & strategy + Ukrainian manpower" is the formula to victory, but anyone who wanted to genuinely join the war effort and go to the front-lines risking their lives, has already done that. That's why the manpower debate is so vital. Also, earlier in the war, very few Ukrainians were talking about un-payable national debt and selling best lands to American corporations, but now it's becoming a lot more of a talking point. Also, Zelensky firing Zaluzhny seems to have lost him lots of support, since Zaluzhny appears to be the more popular of the two now.
It's a really dire and lose-lose situaiton to be honest. I don't know what the solution is, but the real ordinary people are hurting very bad. Be it if they are in Ukraine or outside of it. and they want an end to it much sooner than later.
Over the past few months, I've had several discussions about the war with them, men or women and here are my most honest observations from what I've been told:
- Almost none of them believes Ukraine can get their territory back. All they talk about is ending the war before they lose even more men and territory. I had a haircut today and my hairdresser, Daria from Kherson, was saying how her family has moved to Poland too. She said, "I've accepted that we're never going back. Our home is permanently gone, so we have to make new home here."
- The mood among the men is even more intense, especially after the recent consular services ban. I have a good friend of 4 years, here, he's been living in Poland since 2015. He's furious. He says: "I absolutely hate the Russian regime, but what our gov't is doing is crazy. Look at the size of Russia! How can we expect to beat them as our population shrinks further and further and we don't have anywhere near as many resources as we do. Everyday more and more people die. For what? For reaching the same conclusion or worse than can be reached right now? And now it's focusing on people like me and hundreds of thousand more Ukrainian men who've been living here for years. Long before the war!? Only a very deluded person (Zelensky) can believe we can get major territories back, let alone Crimea. Everyday I see on Telegram videos of random bystander men being kidnapped at bus stations or grocery stores to enlist and go to the front-line. It's crazy !! How are these soldiers supposed to have motivation to fight?
- There is another group that genuinely now believe Zelensky has always been a Russian asset. my Ex is from Odessa (she lives here in Poland) and she was saying that in Odessan cycles now there is genuine rumours that Zelensky has always been an FSB asset. How he was so unprepared for the invasion, he didn't heed to warnings of Western Intelligence services, how he denied advise of NATO generals regarding the failed counter-offensive effort, how he's let major corruption run rampant in the personnel and how, this part very sad: "He's selling our future.There is no winning for us in this war. Everyday it continues, we'll lose more. We're left with an unpayable debt, our most fertile lands sold to American corporations, and our bravest and most capable generation of men either dead or on the run who'll never come back to Ukraine due to fear of being prosecuted escaping draft. This consular services ban just ensure more and more Ukrainians will never return home even after it's over.
No one wants to die. That's what I gather from my conversations with lots of Ukrainian men here. It's all nice for us to say: "Western weapons & strategy + Ukrainian manpower" is the formula to victory, but anyone who wanted to genuinely join the war effort and go to the front-lines risking their lives, has already done that. That's why the manpower debate is so vital. Also, earlier in the war, very few Ukrainians were talking about un-payable national debt and selling best lands to American corporations, but now it's becoming a lot more of a talking point. Also, Zelensky firing Zaluzhny seems to have lost him lots of support, since Zaluzhny appears to be the more popular of the two now.
It's a really dire and lose-lose situaiton to be honest. I don't know what the solution is, but the real ordinary people are hurting very bad. Be it if they are in Ukraine or outside of it. and they want an end to it much sooner than later.
Tell those Russian bots posing as Ukrainians to stop promulgating Russian propaganda.
You should put your mate in contact with Raoul, he'll explain there's nothing to worry as there's no manpower shortage.
More seriously that's a welcome perspective that, had I written it, would have drawn the rabid hyenas but you may get away with it. One point though: there's no way Zelenskiy is a Russian asset. There's no clandestine mystery to the guy. He's a generally well-intentioned guy who's a bit of an idiot, has been used by Western vultures, and is now starting to realise he's been led down the garden path and is massively out of his depth.
Sounds like a bunch of cowards hiding out and bitching. Dont get me wrong I probably would be one of them if it happened to me but just wanting to bend over and take it up the arse from the Russians is a bit much.
I know a fair number of Ukrainians who came over to the states as well and their views are generally informed by the fact that their new lives in the West are preferable to what they had in Ukraine pre-invasion. Many of them would've chosen to live in the US anyway irrespective of what Putin did. They do however want to go back to visit once the war is over.
If they think its a permanently frozen conflict then their fatalism would be understandable. Even though they have no idea what is going to transpire in the coming years.
Cowards, bitching, wanting to bent over to russians... wow
To add to this, it seems Blinken might have just referred to the strikes in Russia with Ukraine's domestically produced weapons. Not clear yet that Ukraine is allowed to use US weapons on Russian territory.
Gazprom’s Declining Fortunes Spell Trouble for Moscow
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/1...budget-war-economy-russia-putin-europe-china/
He doesn't seem to say why it would get better. But interesting to note that his sources say that Ukraine has regressed to fighting like a Soviet military, and "a small Soviet military won't beat a large Soviet military".
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All of this talk of winning and losing is pretty much delusion at this point in time as the war is still going on. At this point in time I don't think either side can claim 'victory' as Ukraine have lost a decent chunk of land and Russia can't claim victory as they haven't achieved any of their stated 'goals'.
That being said, I do think things are looking bleak for Ukraine right now and need the aid and foreign military equipment to get there ASAP. It's pissing me off how NATO countries are still delaying, where are the F16s and the Patriots that have been promised for a while now.
That being said, I do think things are looking bleak for Ukraine right now and need the aid and foreign military equipment to get there ASAP. It's pissing me off how NATO countries are still delaying, where are the F16s and the Patriots that have been promised for a while now.
They have crippled Russia but they have learnt to adapt. Their change of military equipment used and sourcing of raw materials have changed. China, North Korea and Iran have helped Russia largely bypass sanctions.
How Turkey became Putin’s ‘pit stop’ for selling camouflaged fuel to the EU
https://www.politico.eu/article/how-turkey-become-vladimir-putin-pit-stop-sell-camouflage-fuel-eu/
It's true?
Not in my opinion. I think is so harsh to qualify them as such when they are people that fears for their lives and livelihood while we are typing from our comfortable lives
Tonight's 9pm news on First Channel (the equivalent of the BBC's News at 10) followed up the main story of Putin in Beijing with a complete non-story about Alexey Dyumin saying a teary-eyed goodbye to the equally distraught citizens of Tula Oblast as he departs to take up his new job as Putin's Padawan. Here's a clip of it. It's less than a minute but you'll get the idea of what they're going for, especially with the conveniently-filmed nose-blowing juuuust before he gets off the stage.
I've seen all I need to see. Barring some dramatic shift in Russian politics, Dyumin is succeeding Putin.
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Yeah, I think you're right. This war is going nowhere, with or without aid. The west is weak and useless. Dunno how this will end bit it should very quickly.
Hey, so my 28 year old cousin with type 1 diabetes and a whole myriad of other problems got drafted, tried to escape and got shot. Absolute coward wasn't he?
My close friend who has been here in the UK working as a Software engineer in London since 2017 just lost access to his consulate services and won't be able to renew his Visa when it expires. Absolute coward, he should totally give up his 6 figure salary in London and go die in a freezing trench in Donetsk.
Objectively yeah. It fits the definition of coward “a person who is unwilling to do dangerous or unpleasant things by virtue of them being dangerous or unpleasant”
but being cowardly isn’t always a bad thing.
So we're all cowards. I don't see you in a trench.
That's the think. I tend to believe that people don't have enough empathy to put themselves in others people shoes. War is fecking horrible, not only for the losers but for the winners. And not wanting to go is not being a coward, but is to be sane, specially when you trade is not being a soldier
I literally said in my comment if I was in the same situation It would be me? Only difference is that I would admit it.
It can also simply be to value your own life, health and wellbeing and your friends rather than throwing it away for a project that looks doomed to fail.
You're judging people from the comfort of your armchair.
You don't seem to have the slightest clue about how war looks like or how it is to see your life hanging by a thread, and about to be snuffed out just for being in the wrong place, at the wrong time. And try to live with this feeling day in, day out until your time's up. Or not.
I do not know of anyone who went through the absolute hell that war is, calling people cowards for trying to avoid it, especially when it looks like it's a doomed enterprise. I personally wouldn't. "Admitting" it in a purely theoretical sense, since you've never been called to the front lines and will never be, doesn't change a single thing.
Posts like yours are simply shameful.
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You are judging me from the comfort of your armchair. You don't know what I've been through. Shameful.
Just because they have been through hell it doesn't change the English language. They can go through hell, we all feel for them, we understand them, we sympathise with them and we don't understand them because we never went through the same thing AND they are cowards.....all statements can he true. One doesn't negate the other. If you want to disprove coward you need to prove bravery or at least why they are not cowards. Just giving excuses doesn't change the fact.
And my original post was about a specific set of people. Not your cousin or uncle or whoever you are annoyed about. I said this group of people SOUND like a bunch of cowards. Sounds like.