Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

GlastonSpur

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The BBC reports:

"A Russian cruiser which was famously defied by Ukrainian troops on a small island at the start of the war has been hit by Ukrainian rockets in the Black Sea, according to Ukrainian officials.

The Moskva, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, received "very serious damage", Odesa regional governor Maksim Marchenko said.

"It has been confirmed that the missile cruiser Moskva today went exactly where it was sent by our border guards on Snake Island!" he said.

On the first day of the invasion, the small garrison refused calls from the ship for it to surrender, telling the ship to "go to hell".

Earlier on Wednesday a fire was reported on the ship. Ukrainian presidential aide Oleksiy Arestovych said Russian rescuers were unable to reach the vessel.

He said the ship could have as many as 510 crew members on board."
 

The Firestarter

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Yep. I currently live less than 30 miles from a lost nuke. They are constantly looking for it, but they can’t detect anything on a Geiger counter.
Plutonium is not very radioactive and also the casing shields it. Not an easy task to find it when the background level is also high.

EDIT:But its also interesting that they are still conducting searches for that broken arrow. I thought they had given up a long ago.
 

rhajdu

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I still won’t understand anyone feeling offended from their comfortable environment by some harsh but truthful words/statements at the time when you know that their country actually is experiencing genocide, rapes en masse, blockades, total destruction, 11 million people displaced and fighting for its right to exist in democratic world order. Tells you a lot about these type of people.
It's the human psyche. As a defense mechanism, an average person puts distance between herself/himself and unwanted feelings. That's one of the reason why most people are not really following the war anymore.

The other side of this topic is that if you feel personally attacked (through your groups with which you identify yourself), you might feel negatively towards the other group. So for example when the Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine said that Budapest silently dreams about Transcarpathia and the people of Hungary want to be the ones who are trying to stab them at the back, it was not really a good message. It's just enforced the bad blood and the bitter feelings between the two nations. There is now a popular story between your "average" people that the Ukrainians were among those Soviet soldiers who put down the Hungarian Revolution of 1956.

So I think @stefan92 just wanted to say that this type of communication is not really effective for your "average" people. It just distances them from the cause or even generate negative feelings. It won't affect those who are emotionally invested in this war - as most of us who are still following this topic.
 

TwoSheds

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I'm sorry but "some pollution" when a nuclear bomb is on board? That's quite the understatement, no?
Not really no. Quite literally a drop in the ocean. Not good of course but probably not as bad as e.g. the spills at Fukushima.
 

stefan92

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All 37 of the ones not sanctioned are Republicans. I know that for a fact without looking it up.
To be honest, that's a brilliant move by Russia. The sanctions won't hurt anyone, but the discussion why those 37 are not sanctioned will distract the US public a while.
 

Simbo

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Interesting prophecy from a few days ago:
https://realcontextnews.com/ukraine...s-navy-with-game-changing-anti-ship-missiles/

" Ukraine would have excellent coverage with many of these systems. For most of these systems, many, perhaps even all, of Russia’s twenty remaining large warships in the region—including Russia’s most powerful naval ship, the Slava class cruiser Moskva—are well within striking range from Ukrainian-controlled territory. "
 
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stefan92

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Reportedly the first battery of Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles should have become battle-ready in April. If it is true that they hit the Moskva with those, it means that they actually were able to finish that project despite the war, which is great.

And it might be another aspect to the sometimes (and for different reasons) given sentiment that this war is a "now or never" situation for Russia.
 

Rajma

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It's the human psyche. As a defense mechanism, an average person puts distance between herself/himself and unwanted feelings. That's one of the reason why most people are not really following the war anymore.

The other side of this topic is that if you feel personally attacked (through your groups with which you identify yourself), you might feel negatively towards the other group. So for example when the Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine said that Budapest silently dreams about Transcarpathia and the people of Hungary want to be the ones who are trying to stab them at the back, it was not really a good message. It's just enforced the bad blood and the bitter feelings between the two nations. There is now a popular story between your "average" people that the Ukrainians were among those Soviet soldiers who put down the Hungarian Revolution of 1956.

So I think @stefan92 just wanted to say that this type of communication is not really effective for your "average" people. It just distances them from the cause or even generate negative feelings. It won't affect those who are emotionally invested in this war - as most of us who are still following this topic.
@stefan92, I just think it might be an impossible balance to hit at the moment given how little support in real terms Germany have shown so far and the time pressures at play versus what it could be actually doing, though I understand that less invested people can be put off by the rhetoric but I don’t think this is something that anyone should be thinking right now as these type of people are unlikely to really pressure government either way.
 

alexthelion

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News reports were that Zelenskyy rejected a meeting with Steinmeier, not that that Steinmeier was persona non grata to enter Ukraine, but who knows? Again, not sure why Germany is pushing Steinmeier forward to visit, instead of the German Chancellor.
Looking for an excuse to do nothing, as per usual.
 

Simbo

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Reportedly the first battery of Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles should have become battle-ready in April. If it is true that they hit the Moskva with those, it means that they actually were able to finish that project despite the war, which is great.

And it might be another aspect to the sometimes (and for different reasons) given sentiment that this war is a "now or never" situation for Russia.
Yep, could also be that they are now happier to use the few they have now they know they are being re-supplied with Harpoons.
 

Simbo

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osint people monitoring black sea radio saying its on fire, technical ships on route to help. Another saying there's a morse signal indicating its sinking.
 
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stefan92

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osint people monitoring black sea radio saying its on fire, technical ships on route to help. Another saying there's a morse signal indicating its sinking.
So it slowly appears to be independently confirmed... damn, that's a blow to the Russian fleet. The purpose of the Moskva was basically to kill entire aircraft carrier battlegroups and it was quite useful as a deterrent to the US in the Mediterranean. This has huge geopolitical implications, as Russia now can't do anything about a US show of force near Syria for example.
 

MTF

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So it slowly appears to be independently confirmed... damn, that's a blow to the Russian fleet. The purpose of the Moskva was basically to kill entire aircraft carrier battlegroups and it was quite useful as a deterrent to the US in the Mediterranean. This has huge geopolitical implications, as Russia now can't do anything about a US show of force near Syria for example.
With one ship?
 

calodo2003

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So it slowly appears to be independently confirmed... damn, that's a blow to the Russian fleet. The purpose of the Moskva was basically to kill entire aircraft carrier battlegroups and it was quite useful as a deterrent to the US in the Mediterranean. This has huge geopolitical implications, as Russia now can't do anything about a US show of force near Syria for example.
How many Moskvas are there?
 

stefan92

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With one ship?
Main armament of the Moskva are anti-ship missiles with (optionally) nuclear warheads. So yes, firing them at a carrier group would definitely destroy a whole carrier group. Conventional warheads would at least ensure heavy damage to the core of the group.

How many Moskvas are there?
Three were completed. Moskva serving in the Black Sea, Marshal Ustinov in the Northern Fleet and Varyag in the Pacific Fleet. And then there's the comparable but even bigger nuclear-powered Pyotr Veliki, flagship of the Northern Fleet. Thinking about it now, they might decide to transfer the Marshal Ustinov to the Black Sea to keep up that capability in the area (it's the only possible transfer, as they still would have the Pyotr Veliki, but anyway it's a big blow to them).
 
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RedDevilQuebecois

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So it slowly appears to be independently confirmed... damn, that's a blow to the Russian fleet. The purpose of the Moskva was basically to kill entire aircraft carrier battlegroups and it was quite useful as a deterrent to the US in the Mediterranean. This has huge geopolitical implications, as Russia now can't do anything about a US show of force near Syria for example.
In the context of what the Russian fleet has and how important that ship is to them, such loss would be equivalent to what if the USN lost one of their Nimitz-class aircraft carriers.

There is a ship of that same class in the Russian Pacific fleet. I don't think the Japanese will try much, but I say it's suddenly more tempting for them to perform probing flights over the Kuril Islands after years of being on the receiving end of Russian air probes.

How many Moskvas are there?
Three in service, one unfinished (the Ukrayina) and four more cancelled (source).
 

GlastonSpur

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Main armament of the Moskva are anti-ship missiles with (optionally) nuclear warheads. So yes, firing them at a carrier group would definitely destroy a whole carrier group. Conventional warheads would at least ensure heavy damage to the core of the group.


Three were completed. Moskva serving in the Black Sea, Marshal Ustinov in the Northern Fleet and Varyag in the Pacific Fleet. And then there's the comparable but even bigger nuclear-powered Pyotr Veliki, flagship of the Northern Fleet. Thinking about it now, they might decide to transfer the Marshal Ustinov to the Black Sea to keep up that capability in the area (it's the only possible transfer, as they still would have the Pyotr Veliki, but anyway it's a big blow to them).
This assumes that some or all of the missiles are not destroyed mid-flight. A carrier group does have defences.
 

MTF

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Main armament of the Moskva are anti-ship missiles with (optionally) nuclear warheads. So yes, firing them at a carrier group would definitely destroy a whole carrier group. Conventional warheads would at least ensure heavy damage to the core of the group.


Three were completed. Moskva serving in the Black Sea, Marshal Ustinov in the Northern Fleet and Varyag in the Pacific Fleet. And then there's the comparable but even bigger nuclear-powered Pyotr Veliki, flagship of the Northern Fleet. Thinking about it now, they might decide to transfer the Marshal Ustinov to the Black Sea to keep up that capability in the area (it's the only possible transfer, as they still would have the Pyotr Veliki, but anyway it's a big blow to them).
I'm not up-to-date on the latest capabilities and thinking on naval warfare. But it just seems like missile cruiser vs carrier group is a losing battle for the missile cruiser pretty much whatever the range on their missiles, owing to the longer range and detection capabilities of carrier aircraft. The missile cruiser can potentially be located and attacked before it ever locates the carrier.
 

Organic Potatoes

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To be honest, that's a brilliant move by Russia. The sanctions won't hurt anyone, but the discussion why those 37 are not sanctioned will distract the US public a while.
Calling it a brilliant move for that reason is silly. We’d be more distracted if a fast food chain came out with a new fried chicken sandwich.
 

stefan92

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I'm not up-to-date on the latest capabilities and thinking on naval warfare. But it just seems like missile cruiser vs carrier group is a losing battle for the missile cruiser pretty much whatever the range on their missiles, owing to the longer range and detection capabilities of carrier aircraft. The missile cruiser can potentially be located and attacked before it ever locates the carrier.
That is precisely why the Moskva carries a huge load of S-300 air defense missiles as well as close range air defenses. It's not that easy and hard to predict who would win - at least no one could be really sure about it.

That some Ukrainian Neptune cruise missiles seem to be enough isn't surprised in the context of this war, but before that?
 

Rajma

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So it slowly appears to be independently confirmed... damn, that's a blow to the Russian fleet. The purpose of the Moskva was basically to kill entire aircraft carrier battlegroups and it was quite useful as a deterrent to the US in the Mediterranean. This has huge geopolitical implications, as Russia now can't do anything about a US show of force near Syria for example.
Some irony in this: