Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[Frosty]

As was pointed out in another thread, if you go to this site

https://archive.ph/

And type in the URL of the article you want to read, you can get a HTML version of the text.

 

[Lemoor]

As for your post, you may well be correct but I obviously don't think so. Again, look at how the messaging from the West has been shifting over the last month. Back in March and April everyone was gung-ho for supporting Ukraine "for as long as it takes". In my opinion this was driven by the belief that Russia's war was being so ineptly carried out that Putin would be suffocated into a quick defeat ("there'll be nothing left of the Russian economy by June!"). But that is not going to happen. Back in March the New York Times was one of the biggest proponents of the idea that America should give all the money and weapons Ukraine needs in order to 'win'. Fast forward a couple of months and now we're getting this, from the editorial board:

You have a really weird view of western journalism. There was never anything even remotely close to unanimity among them neither in making predictions nor in what should be done about the invasion and you very conveniently leave out that at the beginning of invasion the consensus was much closer to "it's only a matter of days, maybe weeks, before full occupation of Ukraine" and even a ton of relative optimists weren't really pointing to any real possibility of Ukraine holding anything, but were pointing that occupation might be too expensive for Russia to be viable.
Overarching trends might have changed (which to a certain extent is to be expected, since changes on the ground are not consistent Ukrainian gains anymore), but you could absolutely find those voices since start of the invasion (and regarding inflation in a lot of countries even before it). Those editorials really aren't nearly as special as you seem to imply.

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

This article (sorry for the paywall but you get the gist here) is relevant on that subject, as well as the impact of sanctions which has been in question…

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Well, the turn of events is sure a very welcome one compared to my original anticipation from a few months back that China would try sending something equivalent to the Condor Legion to help Russia as ideological allies. At the same time, it also blatantly shows that China's word has to considered as (very probably) meaning jackshit if any country holds talks with them.

 

[Organic Potatoes]

Well, the turn of events is sure a very welcome one compared to my original anticipation from a few months back that China would try sending something equivalent to the Condor Legion to help Russia as ideological allies. At the same time, it also blatantly shows that China's word has to considered as (very probably) meaning jackshit if any country holds talks with them.

They were always going to act according to a calculation on what was in their long-term own interests, same as the US (on the rare occasion we think long-term).

The irony here, regarding a war Russia ostensibly started in order to reclaim land that should’ve always been theirs, is all the land China gave up to them only a few generations ago.

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Big irony is that the All Saints monastery is affiliated with the Moscow Patriarchate, which is run by Patriarch Kirill. Kirill is a long-serving Putin ally who has given his blessing to the war in Ukraine.

 

[Rajma]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Seems like Severodonetsk is now back under Ukrainians (at least a majority of it) if Russians are falling back on artillery strikes now on the city.

 

[harms]

whilst Russia is well on the way towards becoming a fascist state

I find this quite amusing, just as I did the NYT article about this. Russia has been a fascist state for quite some time now by any metric (like Eco’s list, for example).

 

[harms]

You actually believe anything that Putin says? Good grief.

Putin invaded Ukraine for a combination of reasons, including (as a major reason) because he fears the example to the Russian people of a free and democratic Ukraine, but also because he wants to restore some mythical "Golden Age" of Russian Empire (with himself seen as saviour Tsar), wants to distract the younger generation of Russians from sliding away from Soviet values towards Western liberalism, and also because he is lost in delusions that he can shift the international order in Russia's favour by confronting the West.

I don’t think that Putin was lying in his address or in his quasi-historical article about Ukraine that he had released previously… he does seem to believe in that stuff. Obviously what he says is entirely disconnected from what you can roughly call an objective truth, but still, he quite clearly believes what he says so you can certainly deduct a lot of his motivations by simply listening to him.

 

[Adisa]

Been away from this thread for a few days.
Macron is a fool and can inly say such cause it is not his country that was invaded.

 

[Buster15]

I don’t think that Putin was lying in his address or in his quasi-historical article about Ukraine that he had released previously… he does seem to believe in that stuff. Obviously what he says is entirely disconnected from what you can roughly call an objective truth, but still, he quite clearly believes what he says so you can certainly deduct a lot of his motivations by simply listening to him.

Whether Putin believes in the legitimacy of his actions or not is somewhat irrelevant.
It is totally unacceptable for one country to invade another for ideological reasons. Because Ukraine was posing no military threat at all to Russia.
Or the Russian people.

 

[harms]

Whether Putin believes in the legitimacy of his actions or not is somewhat irrelevant.
It is totally unacceptable for one country to invade another for ideological reasons. Because Ukraine was posing no military threat at all to Russia.
Or the Russian people.

That’s not even a question.

I was replying to Glaston questioning whenever you can trust Putin’s words when you’re trying to establish his motivation — and you can, to an extent.

 

[GlastonSpur]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Buster15]

That’s not even a question.

I was replying to Glaston questioning whenever you can trust Putin’s words when you’re trying to establish his motivation — and you can, to an extent.

Wasn't meant as a question. Simply a statement.

 

[harms]

Wasn't meant as a question. Simply a statement.

You replied to my post with this, so I specified that the legitimacy (or illegitimacy to be more precise) of Putin’s claims was not in question. We were discussing whenever Putin’s words align with his beliefs.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

If I were "scared" I would simply take my family and move to my native England, it would be very easy for me to do that.

As for your post, you may well be correct but I obviously don't think so. Again, look at how the messaging from the West has been shifting over the last month. Back in March and April everyone was gung-ho for supporting Ukraine "for as long as it takes". In my opinion this was driven by the belief that Russia's war was being so ineptly carried out that Putin would be suffocated into a quick defeat ("there'll be nothing left of the Russian economy by June!"). But that is not going to happen. Back in March the New York Times was one of the biggest proponents of the idea that America should give all the money and weapons Ukraine needs in order to 'win'. Fast forward a couple of months and now we're getting this, from the editorial board:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/19/opinion/america-ukraine-war-support.html

In addition, more and more articles on the American news sites are starting to mention "the midterms" when writing about America's financial support of the war, as in "Biden needs to be wary of the midterms". Why? If, as Pelosi and Schumer and all the rest keep saying, "America will stand with our Ukrainian friends until victory is won" (sound familiar Afghanis?) then why do the midterms matter? We know the answer of course. America's debt is currently about 130% of GDP, prices are through the roof, gas prices have doubled, Biden has countless problems back in America, his ratings are subterranean and come November it is going to be increasingly difficult to explain to Americans why he's continuing to send billions of dollars to Ukraine. Especially when more people will be realising that this war has nothing to do with "defending Ukrainian democracy" or whatever other fatuous nonsense they've been saying about the reasons for this invasion. 'Zelenskiy' is saying he won't make any compromises and he won't even start negotiations until the Russian army has withdrawn to its pre-February 24th position. That is never going to happen. Therefore, unless the Biden Admin want to be exposed as liars, it means they're going to have to fund Ukraine's war indefinitely. And as I've suggested, all those who are hoping the printing press will continue to just print more money to pay for it all are going to be sorely disappointed. With everyone from the governor of the Bank of England...

https://www.ft.com/content/0a8f0465-12ed-412b-94cb-571f9fb6f0d4

...to the CEO of JPMorgan Chase...

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/01/jam...ricane-caused-by-the-fed-and-ukraine-war.html

...saying financial armageddon is on the way, and the Biden Admin making the blunder of calling it all a "Putin price hike" (well then why are you looking to extend it rather than press Zelenskiy to sue for peace?), continuing to fund Ukraine's war will be risky at best, political suicide at worst. Americans don't care about "Ukrainian freedom". They simply don't. The Americans (including in this thread) who are demanding Ukraine fight on to the last Ukrainian soldier and, ideally, the last European euro are doing so because this war is riveting entertainment for them, and because - an American trait - they don't believe that the bill will ever come. "Printing press go buuuuurrrrrr", right? Wrong. Not this time.

Put bluntly, everyone was adamant back in March that the West must bankroll Ukraine's push for total victory because it was believed that the sanctions would quickly cripple Putin's war machine. They haven't, and they won't. And that's why France and Germany have been trying to push 'Zelenskiy' to sue for peace, and why in the last few days even America has said they're going to consider Italy's 4-step proposal for a peaceful settlement (a month ago they dismissed any such talk out of hand). Without NATO boots on the ground (something Ukraine has been desperately trying to make happen), there is no realistic scenario where the Ukrainians win, and they will have to cede territory. Literally everyone in politics knows this, they're just afraid to say it because they see what happens to people (Kissinger for example) who do, they get the facile "Neville Chamberlain and Hitler!" nonsense.

Furthermore (to sum up my main point), an economic collapse is coming, but for Ukraine, not Russia. Ukraine lived on its heavy industry, its grain exports, and the transit fees for Russian oil and gas. All have now gone and Zelenskiy needs something like 10 billion dollars A MONTH only to keep his economy afloat, without even considering the war costs (sidebar - how much money are the billionaire Ukrainian oligarchs sending to Ukraine from their Swiss chateaus? The British taxpayers sent 300 million last month, how much did Zelenskiy's boss Kolomoiyskiy send?). Russia can still export its resources to the non-Western world whereas Ukraine is now wholly reliant on its new 'sponsor' from across the pond, and as many countries have experienced, the US is a very capricious 'sponsor'.

I'll post this link from today, but I'll add the acknowledgement that The Hill is not exactly first rate journalism (still a sounder source than Glaston's psychic friend though). Nevertheless I think it raises points that are worth considering:

https://thehill.com/opinion/interna...-win-a-public-relations-war-against-the-west/


Simultaneously, the heretofore skimpy and universally negative reporting of Putin’s intentions has begun to morph into a dawning perception that the Russian leader’s strategy of conquering a land bridge to Crimea and gaining a chokehold on the entire Ukrainian economy, via total control of the Black Sea coastline, is not quite as inept as previously reported.

Another element of the conventional wisdom now crumbling is the idea that the crippling sanctions imposed by the U.S. and European Union nations would soon bring the Russian economy to its knees. Instead, there is evidence that the opposite may be occurring, with sanctions doing more damage to Western economies than to Russia’s. Far from being the “rubble” predicted by President Biden, the ruble hit a two-year high in May and Russian energy and agricultural exports were producing record high revenues, in large part because Europe and much of the rest of the world can’t do without them.

Related to these phenomena is the utter unreality of the war’s foundational myth — namely that the United States has rallied almost the entire world against a nearly totally isolated Russia. In truth, of the world’s 195 countries only 65 have agreed to join the American sanctions regime — meaning that 130 have refused, including China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, most of Asia, Africa and Latin America, countries that together constitute the vast majority of the world’s population.

Consider also that the nations the U.S. currently targets with sanctions represent a powerful bloc strongly opposing what they regard as America’s economic bullying. A striking example of the rejection of U.S. assumptions of dominance was a recent meeting of the world’s leading financial nations — the G-20 Summit — when the U.S. delegation walked out on a speech by a Russian delegate and only three of the other 19 delegations followed suit.

I guess we will see which side cracks first.

Don't wait too long to leave if you really can. The Gulags were full of people who thought they had time or it could never happen to them and having UK links is not going to be popular if / when Putin loses the war and control. The most dangerous time to live in an autocracy is when the leadership is challenged or changes.

 

[Buster15]

You replied to my post with this, so I specified that the legitimacy (or illegitimacy to be more precise) of Putin’s claims was not in question. We were discussing whenever Putin’s words align with his beliefs.

Ok. I will leave you to your cosy discussion but question whether you have never responded to another post with your own views....

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

You replied to my post with this, so I specified that the legitimacy (or illegitimacy to be more precise) of Putin’s claims was not in question. We were discussing whenever Putin’s words align with his beliefs.

When you think about it, its only four months ago he was telling everyone he wouldn't invade Ukraine and that the west was being hysterical and should calm down. He lies compulsively and at this point we should just stop listening to him all together.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

I must have missed the memo asking him to be western mediator.

He can mediate for France as much as wants he doesn't speak for the EU or the west or Ukraine.

He has been poor on this crisis from the beginning and every time he opens his mouth he loses credibility.

 

[harms]

When you think about it, its only four months ago he was telling everyone he wouldn't invade Ukraine and that the west was being hysterical and should calm down. He lies compulsively and at this point we should just stop listening to him all together.

I’d separate the two. In terms of the ideology he had been pretty consistent and in my opinion, truthful, with his anti-NATO, anti-Maidan, Pax Rossica etc. rhetoric since the Munich address in 2007 (inevitably escalating towards complete madness).

When Putin talks about his immediate plans, how he’ll never attack first, that there were no Russian soldiers in Crimea & Donbass, how he’ll never change the constitution etc., he obviously talks bullshit — to the point that as a rule of thumb you listen to what Putin or Peskov say on the matter and assume that the literal opposite is true, it works 95% of the time.

 

[the hea]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Pintu]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[GlastonSpur]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

This guy is an ex-Ambassador to Ukraine. Bridget Brink is the current Ambassador.

 

[Denis79]

Why is @Paxi and @DT12 allowed to post in here when they are absolutely shilling for the Kremlin?

Supporters of war crimes shouldnt be allowed to post on this forum.

Its disgusting and so disrespectful to the likes of @Water Melon

Can a mod explain to me why they are still allowed access to this forum?

I feel that @DT12 adds a lot to this discussion. I might not like what he writes but it's interesting to read another view on things.

 

[cyberman]

Why is @Paxi and @DT12 allowed to post in here when they are absolutely shilling for the Kremlin?

Supporters of war crimes shouldnt be allowed to post on this forum.

Its disgusting and so disrespectful to the likes of @Water Melon

Can a mod explain to me why they are still allowed access to this forum?

Yep, I’m out of this thread thanks to that. Allowing Russian propaganda is a stupidly obvious mistake to make.

 

[Gehrman]

I feel that @DT12 adds a lot to this discussion. I might not like what he writes but it's interesting to read another view on things.

This is how I feel as well. Unless I missed out on something absolutely horrible he wrote. He's just giving his perspective as to why he thinks Russia will win.

 

[Frosty]

Why is @Paxi and @DT12 allowed to post in here when they are absolutely shilling for the Kremlin?

Supporters of war crimes shouldnt be allowed to post on this forum.

Its disgusting and so disrespectful to the likes of @Water Melon

Can a mod explain to me why they are still allowed access to this forum?

Yep, I’m out of this thread thanks to that. Allowing Russian propaganda is a stupidly obvious mistake to make.

You don't fancy putting them on ignore and still following the thread?

 

[Pintu]

You don't fancy putting them on ignore and still following the thread?

I have them both on ignore, but I keep reading other members interact with them.

Not saying the conversation is illegitimate, you can have whatever discussion you want. But we’ve seen much less controversial posts getting moved to other topics. According to the same logic this should be moved as well. What Paxi posted was just blatant Kremlin propaganda, there is nothing worth the discussion there..

 

[cyberman]

You don't fancy putting them on ignore and still following the thread?

It’s more for the integrity of the thread. You can’t really argue against the effects of such allowance when this was a cornerstone of Russian online strategy for the past decade imo.

 

[Gehrman]

I have them both on ignore, but I keep reading other members interact with them.

Not saying the conversation is illegitimate, you can have whatever discussion you want. But we’ve seen much less controversial posts getting moved to other topics. According to the same logic this should be moved as well. What Paxi posted was just blatant Kremlin propaganda, there is nothing worth the discussion there..

I don't really find what @DT12 is writing as out of line or irrelevant to the thread at all unless I missed something.

 

[Gehrman]

It’s more for the integrity of the thread. You can’t really argue against the effects of such allowance when this was a cornerstone of Russian online strategy for the past decade imo.

It's a Manchester United fan forum. It's not the grand theater of discussions. I would agree though that Paxi crossed a line.

 

[Raoul]

I don't really find what @DT12 is writing as out of line or irrelevant to the thread at all unless I missed something.

Its not. People just have a hard time processing alternative views these days. Not everyone has to agree on a topic and there is such a thing as the ignore feature.

 

[Carolina Red]

Guys, we can’t ban people for thinking a different side of the war is going to win.

 

[TMDaines]

Not had much Internet on holiday. Good to see Ukrainian fighting back a little in the East, but depressing to see France, Germany and Italy now essentially swinging further than Hungary in open support for Russia’s war goals. It seems Russia’s new aim is to strangle and destroy as much of the global food supply as possible to blackmail the international community.

@DatIrishFella I think free speech is important. Once you start silencing idiots like @Paxi , all that happens is you lose the ability to change their mind - or even yours. You need to have difficult conversations, otherwise you end up with everyone pretending everything is going great, nobody is allowed to say anything that contradicts the company line, and you have essentially lost your freedom to have a different opinion. Basically, you end up like Russia and they go off and nothing gets any better. The second best thing you can do if you really don't like what they are saying is put them on ignore and let them talk themselves into a hole, because even they must have some sort of real understanding of their truth. The best thing you can do though, is exercise your free speech to change their mind.

If it's obvious they're paid by the Kremlin and are sitting in the "Internet Research Agency" in St Petersburg, that's a different matter. After all those guys are paid pretty well, and 85% of the Russian intelligence funding goes towards lying on the internet, at least according to Yuri Bezmenov... And it's hard to believe that that EVER changed.

I used to think this, but this sort of stance is what has ultimately led to Brexit, Trump et al. You should feel comfortable marginalising and not giving an undue level of respect to bad faith actors with bad faith arguments who simply want to sow confusion and doubt with no respect to objectivity. @harms said it well a few posts below.

 

[Carolina Red]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Carolina Red]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Gehrman]

Not had much Internet on holiday. Good to see Ukrainian fighting back a little in the East, but depressing to see France, Germany and Italy now essentially swinging further than Hungary in open support for Russia’s war goals. It seems Russia’s new aim is to strangle and destroy as much of the global food supply as possible to blackmail the international community.


I used to think this, but this sort of stance is what has ultimately led to Brexit, Trump et al. You should feel comfortable marginalising and not giving an undue level of respect to bad faith actors with bad faith arguments who simply want to sow confusion and doubt with no respect to objectivity. @harms said it well a few posts below.

Yeah free speech and democracy is a bitch when it doesn't swing our way.

 

[Beans]

Ukraine now has more troops on the front than Russia.

US and allies are running out of some of the things they want to send, however. They don't want to strip their own forces as Russia might be heading their way. From Zeihan.

 

[frostbite]

Ukraine now has more troops on the front than Russia.

US and allies are running out of some of the things they want to send, however. They don't want to strip their own forces as Russia might be heading their way. From Zeihan.

What does this mean? I laughed when I read it, but I have no idea what it could ever mean. Is Russia going to invade Alaska?

 

[Water Melon]

Why would we want to have DT12 banned? He does believe that Russia will win, so what? Time will tell, but I have no doubts that Ukraine is winning this. Russian economy and army are suffering badly already and the worst is yet to come.

 

[the hea]

Reports on Twitter that Russia has lost two more generals either yesterday or today.

Major General Roman Kutuzov, commander of Russia's 5th army and General Roman Berdnikov commander of 29th Russian army.