Jesus, could we please stop this NATO expansion nonsense?
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
I am afraid that would require putinbot firmware update.
No appeasement never works. But it was not appeasement before the invasion. Are forgetting the Cuban missile crisis?
The majority of the people in this world don't think they should suffer for the fight between two super powers to show whose got the bigger dick.
Presume you are young and from a NATO county or a NATO affiliated country? This story was told many times during the Gorbachev era. It's not a new one that has come up now. This has got nothing to do with Putin.
Yeah the majority of people in South America, Africa and Asia care deeply about NATO 'expanding'.
This is a problem created solely by Putin and Russia, the best thing for the people of Ukraine, the world and even Russia would be if they ended this unjustified attack tomorrow. Which they could but they won't.
It has everything to do with Putin.
How come expansion of NATO become a problem for the world. If anything, the further NATO expands towards Russia, the better. The more stability there will be in Eurasia, thus the whole world. Put-ler has gone way too far by occupying lands of sovereign states only because these countries were not NATO members. Deputinization and de-rushizification of Russia is the only way forward. More sanctions on rushist regime, more arms to Ukraine to help defend their land.
Wow,, "This has got nothing to do with Putin" takes the cake.
Look bringing up the cuban missile crisis is stupid. Several Nato members already border Russia and with modern tech the US can lob nukes at Russia without having to place them at their doorstep not to mention from submarines. Essentially Putin went mad when Ukraine got democracy and wanted to be part of the EU instead of being a puppetstate of Russia like Belarus. I'm happy the west are at the very least providing aid, intel and arms to defend themselves against a large neighbor trying to annex them and they have exceeded expectations so far.
Post of the year contender.
Currently there is a bit of Lunacy in Africa and africans leaders aren't really against Russia. Macky Sall and the African Union are perfectly happy to tell the world how close they are to Russia and Putin.
I think people are being a bit too naive here, the rest of the world isn't looking at the situation the way Europe and the US are and the latters know that which is likely why they are being careful with the words and attitude that they display.
I'm aware that some countries especially in Africa are on the face of it pro Russian because of their history with the Soviet Union in the past and the prevalence of Russian propaganda in those countries media. But some countries leaning more towards Russia than the West isn't the same as the majority of the world being against eastern European countries joining a defensive alliance that will prevent them form being invaded and annexed.
This isn't just some countries in this case but the African Union and the issue is that there is a widespread sentiment that a handful of countries are a menace to sovereignties, namely the US, UK and France. There is a need to be careful and not help certain optics and it would be even worse if NATO went on the offense. It's not that they are against Eastern European Countries joining NATO, it's that NATO expending is seen as a neo-colonialism, the US, UK or France involved in regional conflicts far from their borders is seen as neo-colonialism and it would be a lie to think that it's just russian propaganda, it's an old sentiment.
These three countries that are the main NATO members, the ones that can actually do something have to deal with optics because for a lot of people they are the villains.
Last edited:
Authoritarian states recognize game, I suppose.
The one that surprises me is Israel, 19% favourable to Russia despite Russia historically supporting their enemies. My lack of knowledge of course.
It's a limited list mind, missing the whole of Africa, India and South Asia, China, the Americas south of the US, missing too much to claim 'overwhelmingly negative'.
this
On the next page Macron is the most trustworth world leader. Take that Redcafe!
First off I interpreted the post I first replied to be referring to people in general not governments or supranational organizations, which is why I said people as that's who I was talking about.
In your opinion are the majority of the World's population against former Soviet block countries joining NATO for protection?
I think that close to the majority in non European-North American countries would see it negatively. The issue is that you add for protection or in the previous post you labelled NATO as a defensive alliance, while I agree with you, it's not actually that easily accepted.
While Putin is obviously is the driving force behind it, it's also important to remember that it's not like he's surrounded by democratic doves who would immediately deescalate if they were to take over.
I disagree with and think it's cheap to somehow blame NATO for all this, which is obviously untrue. But I also think it's easy to underestimate just how confused and traumatized the Russian nation has been since the early 90s. We simply don't see eye to eye on modern geopolitical history. I genuinely don't think the kind of politician we in the West would like can succeed in Russia today. The only demographic who might be symathetic to this are the youngest milennials/oldest generation Z, while the rest of society to some extent share Putin's view of how Russia is basically threatened from all sides.
Obviously this doesn't mean that we can't confront and contain Russias expansionism, but I really don't think it's adviseable to enter a game of chicken with a country we (the 'west', or whatever we want to call it) barely seem to understand, like @frostbite seems keen on. That's not to pick on you or anyone else who feels the same, but Russia really is a very strange place...
Tbh I'm coming around to the view that this will be a forever war without a western led coalition to drive out Russia from Ukraine. I don't Ukraine can do even with weapons and aid. Also both the US, UK and well Russia made a pledge to come to Ukraines aid if they were attacked as part of the nuclear disarment treaty.
The only reason those people share that view is due to the consistent and aggressive propaganda for more than two decades now since early days of Putin regime. You ask people in 90s this question and nobody felt threatened then.
The majority of the world would see former Soviet bloc countries wanting protection from aggressive neighbours negatively?
Well I wouldn't know for sure if that would actually be the case but it would surprise me to be honest if it were.
Perhaps not but then that is the goal of propaganda.
Maybe I'm not clear because you keep reframing what is said to match with NATO's POV. To be clear, Nato's expension is often seen as an expension of historic colonialist and the number one world police aka the US. And beyond that, you just have to look at the study shared above, my experience tells me that the figures for Greece or Malaysia are not unique outside of Europe.
Don't get me wrong, I'm all for strategic empathy with the Russians and all that. I also believe that below the surface there is much complexity to the situation. But the notion that Russia started this war because of NATO expansion simply can't be upheld at this point. This theory in particular was put out there to divide opinions in the West. Putin started the war because he saw the EU and the US as weak, egotistical and capitalistic (he contributed to that himself by his bot networks etc). That's almost the rxact opposite tonfeeling threatened.
I mean, the number of different explanations alone makes this such a silly idea to begin with. The Kremlin essentially just went with "you are from the West but want to support us? Here's a list of reasons for our special operation, just pick the one you like the most." I mean, was it the NATO expansion, the Ukrainian nazis or the secret bio labs?
That's of course obly referring to the political leadership that made this decision. The public is a different matter but considering that they, too, were completely surprised by this attack (and the scale of it) I have a hard time imagining that they were that afraid of their neighboring countries and NATO.
All I'm doing is continuing on from the point I was originally making in the first post you replied to mate.
And they’ve kept that pledge.
A couple of recent stories from guys who are or were in Ukraine:
Andy Milburn is originally a Brit, but had an entire career as a USMC infantry officer, retired as a Lt Colonel. He went over to Ukraine initially to write a few articles, but decided to instead start a group (Mozart Group) to help the Ukranians with training and now evacuations it seems. He writes here about the attrition to Ukrainian forces and some of it's (negative) effects. https://mwi.usma.edu/time-is-not-on-kyivs-side-training-weapons-and-attrition-in-ukraine/
This is a longer piece by a journalist that was in Ukraine it seems like a few months ago towards the end of the siege of Kyiv, where he mainly went looking for the so-called "Ukrainian Foreign Legion". https://harpers.org/archive/2022/07/searching-from-the-ukrainian-foreign-legion/
Andy Milburn is originally a Brit, but had an entire career as a USMC infantry officer, retired as a Lt Colonel. He went over to Ukraine initially to write a few articles, but decided to instead start a group (Mozart Group) to help the Ukranians with training and now evacuations it seems. He writes here about the attrition to Ukrainian forces and some of it's (negative) effects. https://mwi.usma.edu/time-is-not-on-kyivs-side-training-weapons-and-attrition-in-ukraine/
This is a longer piece by a journalist that was in Ukraine it seems like a few months ago towards the end of the siege of Kyiv, where he mainly went looking for the so-called "Ukrainian Foreign Legion". https://harpers.org/archive/2022/07/searching-from-the-ukrainian-foreign-legion/
Yeah true
I'm sure that's partly true, but propaganda needs to hit a nerve, perceived or not, to be effective. I don't think it's as if the Russian public were just passively awaiting government propaganda in order to know what to think. I'm quite confident that a vast number of Russians don't agree with this simply because they're benched in front of their TVs listening to propaganda every evening, but rather that of all the information available and directed at them, these paranoid narratives are what fits their reality. Obviously this has gotten increasingly worse as Putin has consolidated more and more power and restricted civic liberties. But as you say, it wasn't like this in the 90s.
If you are from Russia or have special knowledge of it I apologize in advance if this is totally incorrect. I'm basing this mostly on conversations with Russians abroad and a few trips to St. Petersburg, so it isn't exactly hard data
Yeah, I agree. There is much complexity and basis for some legitimate grievances, but it has become impossible and pointless to discuss it because it's just drowned out by all the nonsense coming out of the Kremlin.
Russian citizens never ever felt any threat from Ukraine or Ukranians. Never ever. Unfortunately, to vast majority of Russians living in Russia, Ukranians are not a real nation, neither is Ukraine as a state. They still live in the old days of USSR where other soviet socialistic republics were united by the Great Russia (великая Русь). They still believe that they are superior when it comes to cultural heritage, linguistics, education etc. Russian chauvinism is well known to non-Russian people who were born in USSR. Giving derisory nicknames to people from Central Asia, Caucasus, Ukraine etc is still, unfortunately really commonplace in Russia. Putin is a real monster who has combined in himself the worst from USSR and the rough '90s. He is probably the most corrupt and cruel person in the world right now. The lowest of the lows who had a brilliant chance to build a modern, powerful, rich and truly prosperous Russian Federation, but instead has turned into a pariah state full of brain-washed people. What a shame.
Ukraine: Missile strikes busy shopping centre in Kremenchuk
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-61957596
What is the point of sending missiles to a busy shopping mall? Obviously, Putin does not care about war crimes, or ethics, or civilian casualties. He is not afraid of any "escalation". He only cares about destroying Ukrainians, one way or another.
And of course he doesn't care about NATO escalation, because he is pretty confident there will be none. Okay, the West will send some more weapons, some more Russian soldiers will die, Putin doesn't care about Russian soldiers, either.
Yes, it is really hard for the Western leaders to make wise decisions in this situation, because such a total disregard of human life is completely foreign for Western societies in 2020s.
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-61957596
What is the point of sending missiles to a busy shopping mall? Obviously, Putin does not care about war crimes, or ethics, or civilian casualties. He is not afraid of any "escalation". He only cares about destroying Ukrainians, one way or another.
And of course he doesn't care about NATO escalation, because he is pretty confident there will be none. Okay, the West will send some more weapons, some more Russian soldiers will die, Putin doesn't care about Russian soldiers, either.
Yes, it is really hard for the Western leaders to make wise decisions in this situation, because such a total disregard of human life is completely foreign for Western societies in 2020s.
In retrospect, last February both Russians and Western leaders made huge miscalculations. Russians believed they will capture the whole Ukraine in a few days. Western leaders thought that Ukrainians will hold a little longer and then capitulate. That's why Germany only sent ... helmets.
It is weird that both sides made such huge miscalculations. Obviously, Russians were more inept than what everyone thought, Ukrainians were more capable than what everyone thought.
Since then, Russians changed their strategy, they went back to a simple strategy of bombardment and leveling of cities. Killing as many Ukrainians as possible. Total war, scorched earth.
Usually, to counter this strategy you need to use a capable air force that can decimate any artillery, plus bombard Russian cities as retaliation. But NATO is not going to get involved, and Ukraine does not have a capable air force. The second possibility is for Ukrainians to use long range artillery to hit Russian artillery. I have no idea if this will work because: 1. Russians have air force that can destroy the Ukrainian artillery, 2) Russians have long range missiles that can destroy the Ukrainian artillery, 3) I have no idea if the Western long range artillery is accurate enough to hit the Russian artillery because Ukraine is lacking the rest of the Western integrated targeting infrastructure (satellites, F-35, Airborne battle management aircraft etc). The Western artillery usually does not operate isolated from the Air Force (for both protection and targeting).
It is weird that both sides made such huge miscalculations. Obviously, Russians were more inept than what everyone thought, Ukrainians were more capable than what everyone thought.
Since then, Russians changed their strategy, they went back to a simple strategy of bombardment and leveling of cities. Killing as many Ukrainians as possible. Total war, scorched earth.
Usually, to counter this strategy you need to use a capable air force that can decimate any artillery, plus bombard Russian cities as retaliation. But NATO is not going to get involved, and Ukraine does not have a capable air force. The second possibility is for Ukrainians to use long range artillery to hit Russian artillery. I have no idea if this will work because: 1. Russians have air force that can destroy the Ukrainian artillery, 2) Russians have long range missiles that can destroy the Ukrainian artillery, 3) I have no idea if the Western long range artillery is accurate enough to hit the Russian artillery because Ukraine is lacking the rest of the Western integrated targeting infrastructure (satellites, F-35, Airborne battle management aircraft etc). The Western artillery usually does not operate isolated from the Air Force (for both protection and targeting).
How the towns and villages in Luhansk/Donbass look like after Russian “liberation”.Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
With Russia’s new tactic of just…well…outright levelling Country
we will now see the complete demise of Ukraine
Total destruction
I don’t believe the Ukrainian figures of Russian losses but I do believe they’ll have been high
Not that Russian losses will be a concern too Putin, he won’t give a single feck, but to speed the process up, it’ll be submission time which we seem to be moving into now.
and that means flattening the place, wether military or civilian, no cares given from Putin
the west have failed miserably in keeping such a war off of European soil. You can’t reason with a tiger when your head is in its mouth, and Ukraine’s head was in Russia’s mouth way before the west acted
Nuclear states can do what they want too other states not apart of gangs
we will now see the complete demise of Ukraine
Total destruction
I don’t believe the Ukrainian figures of Russian losses but I do believe they’ll have been high
Not that Russian losses will be a concern too Putin, he won’t give a single feck, but to speed the process up, it’ll be submission time which we seem to be moving into now.
and that means flattening the place, wether military or civilian, no cares given from Putin
the west have failed miserably in keeping such a war off of European soil. You can’t reason with a tiger when your head is in its mouth, and Ukraine’s head was in Russia’s mouth way before the west acted
Nuclear states can do what they want too other states not apart of gangs
Part 2:
What is the Western strategy today? I have no idea, but let me make a guess. West will let East Ukraine to be destroyed completely, with huge human and material loss. There are two/three possible endgames:
1. Ukraine starts winning at some point, taking back some destroyed cities. Putin declares mission accomplished, all the nazis are dead, and gets out of Ukraine.
2. Ukrainians lose. The West will give Putin all Eastern Ukraine and Southern Ukraine, the war will end.
(3. Nope, impossible.) Putin keeps taking more and more destroyed cities, slowly and painfully, killing more and more Ukrainians, and Russians slowly move to the West. The Western leaders' "calculation" is that this will not happen. But if it does happen... too bad.
Nicely written article on the international legion although it does seem like there is a sizeable group at the front now (looking at recent Severodonetsk videos and social media from the Eastern fight). Completely understand why the reporter might not have gone there after this article was written though!
How did Biden or U.S not read the situation correctly? They had been warning the world and Ukraine of an invasion for a long, long time before anyone took it seriously. Zelensky was telling his own people not to pack their bags and leave because Biden is just being dramatic.
I think you're missing his point there.
It's easy to say that, but what exactly would your solution have been?
To be fair, I've been surprised that they've been able to send anything else. Their military has been a neglected shambles since the early 2010s.