The “& find out” side of the equation has reared its head again.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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Since it's Crimea, maybe they haven't established a proper missile defense system there? Plus Ukrainian missiles do fly to Rostovskaya and Belgorodskaya oblast' from time to time, so it's not like Russia has something like Israel's Iron Dome that can catch 95% of the incoming missiles.Doesn't Russia have extensive missile defence systems that should stop this kind of attack happening? It seems like multiple rockets got through. If this war is seen in the wider context of Nato weaponry vs Russian defence I'd imagine there are a few worried generals in Putin's army at the moment.
I'd imagine that strategic points like Moscow/St. Petersburg etc. are better defended.
stefan92
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They definitely moved some of their best air defense systems there already in 2014 and we have seen some video evidence that for example their S-300 batteries were active and shot at something during this war.Since it's Crimea, maybe they haven't established a proper missile defense system there?
So either they failed to intercept the attack which doesn't look good for their air defense, or worse their missile supplies are exhausted. That would be much more dramatic and I wouldn't expect that yet, so I tend to think it's just poor performance.
Edit: just realised to whom I respond here... feels weird to lecture a Russian about Russian activities. Hope you are well and not in danger!
I don't know much about the technical stuff of the war, so my nationality shouldn't give my opinion on this any additional importance.They definitely moved some of their best air defense systems there already in 2014 and we have seen some video evidence that for example their S-300 batteries were active and shot at something during this war.
So either they failed to intercept the attack which doesn't look good for their air defense, or worse their missile supplies are exhausted. That would be much more dramatic and I wouldn't expect that yet, so I tend to think it's just poor performance.
Edit: just realised to whom I respond here... feels weird to lecture a Russian about Russian activities. Hope you are well and not in danger!
NicolaSacco
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That's a good point - you'd need to spend half your GDP on missile defence if you wanted to create an Iron Dome style system over the whole of Russia. Just feels like this should have been thought through. Crimea is not exactly Moscow but it has a key Black Sea base which Putin is supposedly very keen on, and is an important asset in this war. At the very least shouldn't they have predicted a Ukranian attack in that area, rather than say, St Petersburg?Since it's Crimea, maybe they haven't established a proper missile defense system there? Plus Ukrainian missiles do fly to Rostovskaya and Belgorodskaya oblast' from time to time, so it's not like Russia has something like Israel's Iron Dome that can catch 95% of the incoming missiles.
I'd imagine that strategic points like Moscow/St. Petersburg etc. are better defended.
dove
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There were rumours that Ukrainians received missiles with range of 200-300km. I guess it might be true. I am sure it will strike fear into Russians, nowhere is safe and the Crimean bridge is in danger more than ever before.
NicolaSacco
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They definitely moved some of their best air defense systems there already in 2014 and we have seen some video evidence that for example their S-300 batteries were active and shot at something during this war.
So either they failed to intercept the attack which doesn't look good for their air defense, or worse their missile supplies are exhausted. That would be much more dramatic and I wouldn't expect that yet, so I tend to think it's just poor performance.
Edit: just realised to whom I respond here... feels weird to lecture a Russian about Russian activities. Hope you are well and not in danger!
I would genuinely love to know Western intelligence's best estimates of current Russian stocks of rockets, munitions, vehicles etc. We'll never hear them say it, but I imagine there will be a few serious pinch points that go some way to explaining Russian actions during the course of this war
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the hea
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Ukraine were recently given AGM-88 HARM (High-speed Anti Radiation Missile). These missiles are designed to take out the enemies air defence systems by homing in on their radar emissions.Doesn't Russia have extensive missile defence systems that should stop this kind of attack happening? It seems like multiple rockets got through. If this war is seen in the wider context of Nato weaponry vs Russian defence I'd imagine there are a few worried generals in Putin's army at the moment.
If Ukraine has been able to take out some of Russias air surveillance radars with these missiles it is possible that they have been able to get some ground attack missiles through and hit the airbase.
A big question mark at this point is what missiles they have used to attack the base, if it in fact was a missile strike. The only known missile in the Ukrainian arsenal with the range required is the Neptune anti-ship missile. The problem with those is that they rely on radar homing for the terminal phase so they wouldn't be able to hit ground targets with any accuracy, it is possibile that they have been able to develop a GPS guided version of the Neputune, maybe even with the help of others.
Another option is that they have been given some new missiles that we don't know about.
Pretty sure they are using weapons from NATO to carry out the above hit in Crimea.Ukraine were recently given AGM-88 HARM (High-speed Anti Radiation Missile). These missiles are designed to take out the enemies air defence systems by homing in on their radar emissions.
If Ukraine has been able to take out some of Russias air surveillance radars with these missiles it is possible that they have been able to get some ground attack missiles through and hit the airbase.
A big question mark at this point is what missiles they have used to attack the base, if it in fact was a missile strike. The only known missile in the Ukrainian arsenal with the range required is the Neptune anti-ship missile. The problem with those is that they rely on radar homing for the terminal phase so they wouldn't be able to hit ground targets with any accuracy, it is possibile that they have been able to develop a GPS guided version of the Neputune, maybe even with the help of others.
Another option is that they have been given some new missiles that we don't know about.
NicolaSacco
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Pretty sure they are using weapons from NATO to carry out the above hit in Crimea.
I think that's one of those unknowable questions. The degradation of the Russian military in one form or another is pretty astonishing though
RedDevilQuebecois
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Good thing that a military target got hit with precision and yet the strike will leave quite a psychological scar for the pro-Kremlin people enjoying the summer vacation nearby. Paradise shattered.
stefan92
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Maybe not... Ukraine had two missile projects in development (Hrim-2 and Sapsan) which both could perform this mission - if they are indeed ready for battle. This is a big question mark but I guess we can be sure that they accelerated the development of those systems as much as they could in the last months, so maybe this was kind of an operational test of one of those.A big question mark at this point is what missiles they have used to attack the base, if it in fact was a missile strike. The only known missile in the Ukrainian arsenal with the range required is the Neptune anti-ship missile.
the hea
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I would agree that it is the likeliest scenario but that's what I was thinking about the sinking of Moskva too.Pretty sure they are using weapons from NATO to carry out the above hit in Crimea.
I think this is possible too. US is normally upfront about everything when it comes to their deliveries so that would be unexpected.Maybe not... Ukraine had two missile projects in development (Hrim-2 and Sapsan) which both could perform this mission - if they are indeed ready for battle. This is a big question mark but I guess we can be sure that they accelerated the development of those systems as much as they could in the last months, so maybe this was kind of an operational test of one of those.
The Firestarter
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Don't think the US has listed every delivered system. Also don't think its expected to do so.There is also the possibility of sending some experimental/ prototype systems that can get tested in Ukraine. It would make sense for really long range stuff that has little chance of getting captured.I think this is possible too. US is normally upfront about everything when it comes to their deliveries so that would be unexpected.
I hope today's hit in Crimea doesn't make Dmitry Medvedev mad
the hea
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I don't think they have even testfired a Hrim missile yet, the furthest they have gotten, that I know of at least is testing the engine. Sapsan I have never heard of before, so won't say anything about that.Maybe not... Ukraine had two missile projects in development (Hrim-2 and Sapsan) which both could perform this mission - if they are indeed ready for battle. This is a big question mark but I guess we can be sure that they accelerated the development of those systems as much as they could in the last months, so maybe this was kind of an operational test of one of those.
I won't say that it's impossible but I think it's highly unlikely that they have been able to make such massive steps in the developement, in such a short time.
Anyway let the Orcs guessing what’s coming after them.Don't think the US has listed every delivered system. Also don't think its expected to do so.There is also the possibility of sending some experimental/ prototype systems that can get tested in Ukraine. It would make sense for really long range stuff that has little chance of getting captured.
Seems like he’s been on the piss again today, probably asleep now and missing all the fun.I hope today's hit in Crimea doesn't make Dmitry Medvedev mad
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The Firestarter
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In my experience some Paladins did good work.Anyway let the Orcs guessing what’s coming after them.
Dr. Dwayne
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What's Russian for "it's the Ambien!"?Seems like he’s been on the piss again today, probably asleep now and missing all the fun.Tweet
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probably Eta Ambien if memory serves but whatever.
stefan92
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Information is hard to get... it might actually be the case that the (older) Sapsan project in fact evolved into the Hrim and doesn't exist anymore as such. What you say is of course right, but the situation wasn't that much different for the Neptune and then it sunk the Moskva, so who knows? It's as good a guess as speculating if they got some western missiles we don't know about either.I don't think they have even testfired a Hrim missile yet, the furthest they have gotten, that I know of at least is testing the engine. Sapsan I have never heard of before, so won't say anything about that.
I won't say that it's impossible but I think it's highly unlikely that they have been able to make such massive steps in the developement, in such a short time.
Frosty
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Theses on the Philosophy of History is as relevant today as it was when it was written.Obviously he has the right to say anything he wants but that's such a stupid argument. I thought that we've already went past this phase at the very beginning of the war & Zelensky himself openly spoke against it, and yet here we are again — with the likes of Finland, Estonia joining the call.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/08/ukraine-zelensky-interview-ban-russian-travelers/
Stopping Russians from leaving the country benefits only Putin, for whom the full isolation of his people from the West and its influence is the ideal scenario. People who oppose him will get imprisoned, independent journalists won't be able to provide an alternative point of view to a Russian-speaking audience etc.
I keep thinking of Walter Benjamin, who had killed himself because Spain refused to let him through to U.S. and threatened to return him to Nazi-occupied France. On the next day all the people from his group were let through (most likely because of his suicide), yet we had lost one of the most brilliant minds of the XXth century. And the plethora of German internationals that had fled the Third Reich only to continue to fight with Hitler and his regime until the end of the war (like Thomas Mann with his radio addresses). Nah, the Allies should've sent them back to Germany to overthrow Hitler with sticks and stones.
The Firestarter
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I hope something doesnt happen to the bridge while its jammed with cars.Tweet
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Ukraine attempting to attack and reclaim/liberate Crimea will surely take this war to another level, won’t it? I’m assuming that Putin will not want to lose Crimea under any circumstance. Could this be the catalyst for full out nuclear strikes on Ukraine?
ThierryFabregas
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They're not attempting to reclaim Crimea. They're hitting military targets and taking out military aircraftUkraine attempting to attack and reclaim/liberate Crimea will surely take this war to another level, won’t it? I’m assuming that Putin will not want to lose Crimea under any circumstance. Could this be the catalyst for full out nuclear strikes on Ukraine?
VorZakone
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No, there won't be nuclear strikes on Ukraine.Ukraine attempting to attack and reclaim/liberate Crimea will surely take this war to another level, won’t it? I’m assuming that Putin will not want to lose Crimea under any circumstance. Could this be the catalyst for full out nuclear strikes on Ukraine?
That being said, I'd be surprised if Ukraine would go ahead with a Crimea operation.