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Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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If it can be proved that the pipeline damage is intentional (which it seems that it will be able to) then I’d say direct confrontation is probable not possible.
Nobody is going to buy that it was anyone else but Russia.
This is an incredible move from putin and one he definitively won’t be able reverse.
Russia has been shelling nuclear plants, so the iodine could be about that.
I don't think nuclear Armageddon is on the menu. I don't think it's likely he'll use a tactical nuke or three to terrorize the Ukranians or NATO. But if he does, I think it will be done for psychological effect, I don't expect him to use a string of tactical nukes unless someone actually invades Russia proper (not the occupied territories).
Considering how "unthinkable" doing such a thing is to most westerners, it would be a very effective act of terrorism, but I expect the response by the world would only make things harder for him.
I don't think nuclear Armageddon is on the menu. I don't think it's likely he'll use a tactical nuke or three to terrorize the Ukranians or NATO. But if he does, I think it will be done for psychological effect, I don't expect him to use a string of tactical nukes unless someone actually invades Russia proper (not the occupied territories).
Considering how "unthinkable" doing such a thing is to most westerners, it would be a very effective act of terrorism, but I expect the response by the world would only make things harder for him.
Nice series of lectures in case anyone is interested
The thing is, the leaks in Nord Stream 1 and 2 have quite some distance between them. It would have to be two separate incidents, and two accidents that usually happen that rarely are almost impossible. We might not yet know how it was done, but I see no scenario that this wasn't a coordinated attack.
I think the pipeline sabotage could be something that a couple governments may know about but revealing they know would jeopardize sources, methods, or capabilities. If the US knows based on some clandestine technology or source, they’ll have to do some parallel reconstruction to explain how they know it was Russia.
It is so obvious that the RU trolls have stepped up the disinformation campaign on the pipeline sabotage. So many bots constantly posting the same tripe about Biden saying in some press conference that they can Nord stream.
Sorry, USA went so far as implementing sanctions against Germany about Nord Stream 2. As they acted that hostile they are an easy suspect. Not saying that they did, but in this case you just don't need to be a Russian troll to have doubts about the USA.
He's been seen in public a lot more since Klopp has brought them back into contention.
Exactly, sanctions is how US operates, I mean this is quite obvious what happened here.
I read that as Tynchy Stryder at first and was keen to get his views on the situation
They have left one NS2 line operational intentionally too knowing that the pressure will mount to open it up, now that NS1 is fully out of order. I’m not surprised that people in west still falling for this, they have been toyed with by Russian propaganda for ages without realizing it. They must have been laughing in Kremlin all those years really how suspect western population have been to their trolls and disinformation campaigns. Imagine they now blow up Norway’s pipe and only viable option will now suddenly going to be NS2, accidentally?
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According to pro Russian Telegram channel Rybar, the Ukrainians are gaining ground both north and east of Lyman and are now close to encirciling the city.
False flag? On one level the people with the most to gain from the pipeline being broken would be Ukraine. I don't think Ukraine would do this, but Russia might and claim it was them. Just an idea, I don't think anyone knows for sure yet.
Don't think the US has been holding back on intelligence lately.
I'm waiting to see how Russia will try to leverage this. This is so insanely bizarre that I can't come up with anything beyond Bond-level theories.
Russia should be designated a state sponsor of terrorism.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...restrained-during-fsb-interrogation-in-russia
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...restrained-during-fsb-interrogation-in-russia
Is anyone seriously thinking that if the Norway pipe is destroyed the EU will suddenly cave to every demand from Russia and start paying in rubles or whatever they ask?
It would escalate something though.
No, but just the fear that something will happen will feed the Russian trolls in Europe. Discontent in the West is a win for Russia.
Well it will be discontent but towards the one who destroyed the pipeline, not their governments.
Then, we are pretty sure that Scholz will never ever agree to designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. Right?
Danish PM just stated that leaks on NS pipelines were the result of direct action (sabotage).
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Of course.
The Russian trolls will happily say that there is no proof it was Russia. It could be Germany who did it. No? Can you prove that it wasn't Germany? Can you prove it wasn't Ukrainian nazis? Can you prove it wasn't the Klingons?
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It was Orcs.
Some people who have irradiated brains won't believe it even if you find the submarine captain who commanded the mission to wreck it and he admits on live TV. I mean look at the US with those who support Trump. Thankfully they are still a minority.
how many submarines have Ukraine got?
The US doesn’t generally release stuff like satellite evidence or other sensitive collection methods. When Trump showed off a satellite image of an Iranian rocket detonating on the launchpad, it was a huge deal for the intel community since it showed the quality of the satellite imagery.
Even in the lead up to the war, they didn’t share the good stuff with NATO or Ukraine, and all of that was stuff that could have multiple sources.
Well if its convincing nato countries who did it, they absolutely will share the data but maybe not the sources. Just as they did before the invasion.
Would Ukraine have the means to do it? Highly doubtful. Russia have proven they are able, and willing, to operate in this way. Salisbury for example.
How many have Russia got is more the question. Ukraine don't need any for Russia to claim one of their allies assisted them. I thought everyone would understand what a false flag was, should have been clearer sorry.
How many have Russia got that work is the real question.
Very weird scenario because Putin is trying to weaponize the pipeline, sabotaging it does nothing for his hope that Germany beg him to turn on the taps again. I actually think this could have been NATO as a statement to Putin, who is assuming Germany will beg him to restart supply, by damaging the pipeline and effectively stopping it's ability to transport LNG it takes away a massive part of Putin's leverage.
Ah I see apologies.
I just can’t see a nato country sabotaging the lines.
Unless the ultimate aim is to deliberately escalate things potentially to a nuclear conclusion which doesn’t seem like a stance nato would take.
I’m sure they (we) are all hoping it doesn’t come to that and Russia is defeated with conventional means.
Maybe I’m naive I don’t know but the most logical conclusion is that it was Russia was responsible.
Probably not. Though if I were in charge I might be tempted to think that the cost for the EU is too high.
I think so. If Trump were around I might believe anything but Biden seems quite considered in general, a lot less likely to act incautiously. I hope
Senior people will know if nato did it or not. The response will be the same in any event - immediate escalation, so I guess we’ll never know the truth.I think so. If Trump were around I might believe anything but Biden seems quite considered in general, a lot less likely to act incautiously. I hope
I know what I think though.