Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

RG77

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@RG77 I fear if NATO goes in, the time for sanctions would be well and truly over. They'd decapitate the entire govt of Russia, sink their whole fleet, and wipe their entire army off the face of planet earth within a few weeks. But a flailing enemy with nuclear submarines and ICBM's isn't something you want to mess with, let's be real, and our infrastructure and world couldn't be the same afterward
It is an interesting thought experiment, I'm just going by how NATO has responded thus far. But you could be right, in case of a nuclear bomb I do expect NATO to get into Ukraine but still maybe not crossing the border into Russia and trying to opt for a more conventional approach with North-Korea type of sanctions (bare minimum really). But that's all guess work to be honest.

I do feel it is a fear that has been living much more in West-Europe/US than in East-Europe. And as a result you see a lot of appeasement, which simply never has worked.

Russia only understands one thing: power. They do what they can away with until they get punched on the nose. Showing weakness allows them to continue their atrocities. They aren't interested in an actual dialogue, they don't have any fears about NATO attacking them, they won't be satisfied 'if we just give in and let them have part of Ukraine'. All a bunch of lies and the tankies/useful idiots are part of that strategy. They made it very clear this is about restoring what they deem is Russian land and will slaughter and repress anyone needed.

We are at war, it is just Ukraine paying with blood and the rest with money.
 

TheReligion

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Exactly! This whole thing ends with Putin.

And there is no way out of this for him. It only ends with him dead... in my opinion, that's what he told us today.

Unfortunately, Putin has killed or jailed everyone with opposite ideas. So, he is surrounded with kiss ass idiots who are totally dependent on him for their positions. That's why nobody killed him yet. However, if they are stupid enough to throw 300K unprepared soldiers and they have monumental loses, hopefully someone will put Putin out of his misery.

So, the West has to provide weapons, Germany should provide Leopard tanks, and USA should provide F-16 jets, we are past "escalation" fears, we have to support Ukraine 100%.
The West is providing weapons? You want more to be done. It’s like a game of chess. Let’s see if Russia do escalate things because current it is losing the war.
 

frostbite

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The point of a nuclear deterrent is simply that - a deterrent. As soon as Putin actually uses nukes, then the deterrents have failed and there is zero reason not to put boots on the ground to destroy the Russian armed forces and capability to rebuild.

I was an advocate at the start of the war for NATO to step in and establish a no-fly zone, and kick the Russians out of Ukraine. This was called warmongering and yet, here we are over 6 months later, with thousands of innocents killed, potentially doing the same thing anyway. I don’t think Putin was ever going to risk nuclear war over Ukraine. As long as NATO aren’t marching on Moscow, he has no incentive to do so.
I agree with you.

Actually, if NATO used its Air Force in March, when the Russian encirclement of Kiev had already failed, I think it would be a great way out for Putin too. He would claim that he cannot wage war against all of NATO. On the other hand, it was impossible for him to accept that he lost to Ukraine alone. That's why his propagandists are always saying that the war is against NATO.

The West was too timid, and many people died and will continue to die because of this. A show of force in the first few weeks would end things right there. Unfortunately, Scholz, Macron, Biden, etc are weak leaders. And there is no consensus in the West. Ukrainians pay for this with their blood.
 

RedRover

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@RedRover why do we care about the Russian constitution? Maybe because it's not FOR you or me, it's for the Russian people. Who I attribute to the old "boiled frog" theory if you look that up. Ratchet the heat up slowly and the frogs won't even notice.
No doubt - it's a ploy the West have used in this conflict as well: keep supplying ever more useful weapons to Ukraine over and extended period and they're well past the red lines Russia set at the outset.
 

Rajma

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NATO won’t get involved, I think the US will act on their own accord to not destabilize Europe. Even Putin understands he wouldn’t want to face US in standalone fight.
After hearing comments from the head of NATO tonight I’m convinced of this now, that US made it clear to the partners that it will take care of this by themselves not to drag Europe into the war.
 

Walrus

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In other words, be willing to fight Russia? Because if Russia doesn't adhere to your ultimatum, you have to actually fight them, otherwise it's just a bluff that Russia called.
Yes. If you arent willing to fight them then they have already won. What after Ukraine? The Baltics? Estonia? Poland? Or is it only when they arrive on your doorstep (not you personally, I dont know where you are from) that action needs to be taken?
 

TMDaines

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Yeah footie tournament is to blame.
That’s not what I said, and you surely know it. I’m saying that it was batshit that four years after them invading and annexing parts of Ukraine, the entire West pretended it didn’t happen and we all went and played a major sporting event there, with all the kudos that brought.

In Britain I remember more oppositon to Euro 2012 in Ukraine when Sol Campbell went on the TV and told black people they would be killed if they went over there. I barely took my wife seriously at her thoughts that the Russian World Cup should be boycotted. No wonder Putin feels like he can invade, seize land and the world will very quickly forget.
 

Rajma

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Yes. If you arent willing to fight them then they have already won. What after Ukraine? The Baltics? Estonia? Poland? Or is it only when they arrive on your doorstep (not you personally, I dont know where you are from) that action needs to be taken?
100%, and my home is in the city that’s like 30km from Belarus (defacto Russian) border but the line needs to be drawn now.
 

The Purley King

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how does this end without a nuke being dropped now?
Conventional warfare will inevitably end with Russia’s defeat.
I don’t think putin will run away with his tail between his legs or admit any sort of defeat as that would spell the end of him and the power that he has.
I was born in 76 and remember being afraid of nuclear war as a child (especially with a father in the army) but I think we are closer to something cataclysmic now then at any time I remember before.
It may very well be necessary depending on what happens over the next few months and I’m fully behind not allowing putin to strong arm anyone into backing down but it feels like this war might come a lot closer to home than it has so far pretty quickly.
 

dove

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So did anyone jump to congratulate Putin & Russia with this amazing achievement? Apart from Lukashenko of course.
 

MoskvaRed

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how does this end without a nuke being dropped now?
Conventional warfare will inevitably end with Russia’s defeat.
I don’t think putin will run away with his tail between his legs or admit any sort of defeat as that would spell the end of him and the power that he has.
I was born in 76 and remember being afraid of nuclear war as a child (especially with a father in the army) but I think we are closer to something cataclysmic now then at any time I remember before.
It may very well be necessary depending on what happens over the next few months and I’m fully behind not allowing putin to strong arm anyone into backing down but it feels like this war might come a lot closer to home than it has so far pretty quickly.
The West still has some escalation options before we get to firing bullets. if they declare Russia a terrorist state and “encourage” the Chinese to drop their support, there’s a decent chance that there would be regime chance in Russia. In any case, we can’t give a fascist dictator of a country with a second rate army and a third rate economy carte blanche to rewrite the map of Europe just because he has nukes and plays madman theory.
 

The Purley King

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The West still has some escalation options before we get to firing bullets. if they declare Russia a terrorist state and “encourage” the Chinese to drop their support, there’s a decent chance that there would be regime chance in Russia. In any case, we can’t give a fascist dictator of a country with a second rate army and a third rate economy carte blanche to rewrite the map of Europe just because he has nukes and plays madman theory.
I agree 100% but doesn’t make it any less concerning.
 

frostbite

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I am all for it, too. It is in time of need that we should join with our friends and protect them. Yes, there is an huge element of risk. There is also an element of risk if we don't do it. If Merkel and Sarkozy had accepted Ukraine in NATO in 2008, we'd have no war, no huge gas prices, no dead Russian soldiers, no dead Ukrainian soldiers and civilians. Being a coward is a risk, too.
 

Krakenzero

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So esentially, appeasement failed in February, and half measures to avoid escalation ended up failing in September. What's next?

My impression is that the most spectacular victories in war come from fully commiting, and the most sensational defeats come from half assing. What will be the choice?
 

Rajma

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A long night in front of orcs in Lyman unless they surrender in thousands.
 

MoskvaRed

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It’s a weird, maybe unique trait of Russian ultranationalism that they claim to be the future redeemer of a region (Europe) much more advanced than them. A coping mechanism whereby “our life is sh*t” transforms into an assumption of moral superiority through suffering.
 

dove

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UN is absolutely broken and pointless at this point, might as well disband it. How is Russia still having a veto right? A complete mockery.

 

harms

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It’s a weird, maybe unique trait of Russian ultranationalism that they claim to be the future redeemer of a region (Europe) much more advanced than them. A coping mechanism whereby “our life is sh*t” transforms into an assumption of moral superiority through suffering.
Is it? I think it's present in more or less all conservative schools of thought?

Maybe not through suffering though, that is a Russian thing.
 

MoskvaRed

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Is it? I think it's present in more or less all conservative schools of thought?

Maybe not through suffering though, that is a Russian thing.
I can’t think of many other countries that have a sense of destiny (at least among some “intellectuals”) of redeeming a more developed neighbouring area. It’s normally the other way round - some backward region offers an opportunity for exploitation in the name of bringing civilisation.
 

Baneofthegame

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UN is absolutely broken and pointless at this point, might as well disband it. How is Russia still having a veto right? A complete mockery.

Some sort of next level shithousery that they can even do it.