Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
If NATO was to accept then we're in WWIII right?
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Yes, but that's not going to happen, as NATO would need to break it's own rules and would need approval from all members. Ukraine won't become a NATO member now.
Nonetheless some kind of even closer official collaboration could be announced to "pave the way for full membership" or whatever.
If he plans to defend the territory using nukes, why the "partial" mobilisation that made hundreds of thousands flee the country?
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Everything can happen, the sabotaging the Nord Stream pipeline in international waters also set an unseen precedent in the whole mix.
Although I expect similar movements that were made with the EU membership application that Ukraine made.
I honestly don't understand why so many seem to care about the Russian constitution...
A new regime would likely change it anyways.
Adam Curtis's next big documentary is going to be on Russia. Cannot wait for this.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
UK should actually hire her services
Putin has completely lost the plot.
I see no way he comes out of this successfully which is brilliant but also quite concerning.
I see no way he comes out of this successfully which is brilliant but also quite concerning.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Into or out of Crimea?
The point of a nuclear deterrent is simply that - a deterrent. As soon as Putin actually uses nukes, then the deterrents have failed and there is zero reason not to put boots on the ground to destroy the Russian armed forces and capability to rebuild.
I was an advocate at the start of the war for NATO to step in and establish a no-fly zone, and kick the Russians out of Ukraine. This was called warmongering and yet, here we are over 6 months later, with thousands of innocents killed, potentially doing the same thing anyway. I don’t think Putin was ever going to risk nuclear war over Ukraine. As long as NATO aren’t marching on Moscow, he has no incentive to do so.
I was an advocate at the start of the war for NATO to step in and establish a no-fly zone, and kick the Russians out of Ukraine. This was called warmongering and yet, here we are over 6 months later, with thousands of innocents killed, potentially doing the same thing anyway. I don’t think Putin was ever going to risk nuclear war over Ukraine. As long as NATO aren’t marching on Moscow, he has no incentive to do so.
Can’t we just give them missiles suited to taking out that rail route if they promise to use them around Crimea (not Russia proper)? Russia’s supply lines would be fubar’d.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
I believe the bridge was deliberately not attacked to allow the Russians to eventually feck off out of Crimea. They should probably get rid of it now, that the Russians are clearly using it as a tool to further escalate.
@RG77 I fear if NATO goes in, the time for sanctions would be well and truly over. They'd decapitate the entire govt of Russia, sink their whole fleet, and wipe their entire army off the face of planet earth within a few weeks. But a flailing enemy with nuclear submarines and ICBM's isn't something you want to mess with, let's be real, and our infrastructure and world couldn't be the same afterward
Well at some point we have to take a stand. There is no point giving Ukraine a single bullet if NATO is not willing to call Putin's bluffs. It is not like we have not had enough warnings. This is the same pattern of behaviour exhibited since he took power in 2000.
Especially since those new edits were added, well, unconstitutionally.
All part of the charade. Probably doctrine. And Russia has been planning this for some years, sinisterly. I expect this was changed to give them a legal basis to nuke Ukraine. https://www.defensenews.com/global/...of-atomic-weapons-against-non-nuclear-strike/
Russia has been planning something for years, but it isn't nukes. It's clear that Putin expected the much lauded, grand and mighty Russian military to run over Ukraine. That is if they didn't manage to take Kyiv in the first few days and end it right then and there. I really doubt they ever expected to actually meet the kind of resistance which necessitates threatening nukes. They probably expected Ukraine to fold.
Kasparov has been saying for a long time that the price always goes up. The price the West has to pay to respond to Putin. He even wrote a book in 2015 where he described most of what we see today ("Winter is coming"). The more we wait, the more we will pay. We did nothing in 2008. Very little in 2014. And we sent helmets in January 2022. So many missed opportunities to respond in a way that will make the dictator worried. And the price we are paying always goes up.
That's what Kasparov says, not me. So far, it turns out he is correct. But the West does not seem to learn, many people are still worried about "escalation". It is the Russians who should worry about escalation, that's the essence of war. We keep telling ourselves that we are not in a war, while Putin keeps telling us he is in a war against us. And it is not just Ukraine, he has paid billions to try to undermine western democracies from the inside. But we refuse to accept the reality, because we just want to get back to our nice lives. It is okay if Ukrainians die, just don't escalate. And the price goes up.
That's what Kasparov says, not me. So far, it turns out he is correct. But the West does not seem to learn, many people are still worried about "escalation". It is the Russians who should worry about escalation, that's the essence of war. We keep telling ourselves that we are not in a war, while Putin keeps telling us he is in a war against us. And it is not just Ukraine, he has paid billions to try to undermine western democracies from the inside. But we refuse to accept the reality, because we just want to get back to our nice lives. It is okay if Ukrainians die, just don't escalate. And the price goes up.
If Russia throw all of their new recruits at the "annexed areas" pre-winter, would they be able to take them entirely?
I can see Putin thinking that the West will cede their support for Ukraine following the upcoming energy crisis this winter, when the fighting will largely cease, and wanting to strengthen his hand ASAP.
I can see Putin thinking that the West will cede their support for Ukraine following the upcoming energy crisis this winter, when the fighting will largely cease, and wanting to strengthen his hand ASAP.
Only reason to leave it I can see. That, and not angering the locals by making it hard to get supplies.
What I hear is that these numbers won't make any difference, as they won't be trained and are without additional heavy weapons.
FYI for those suggesting that we just encourage Ukraine to hand over those parts of its country in search of “peace”:
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Correct. It’s been brinksmanship from day one. The more you act scared or cautious, the more it simply emboldens him (Putin) - which is arguably why we are in this mess in the first place.
Set him a deadline. Say if you aren’t out of Ukraine (all of Ukraine) by the end of October, we are going to go in and force you out. And then stick to that.
If you really want to be clever and political about it then you can say “there is no official war therefore we are just going in for training exercises with a prospective NATO member”. Personally I wouldn’t bother with the pretence though.
What do you propose?
That'd get me to sign up, no problem...
I keep reading this online but it makes no sense.
Putin is a dictator who can do whatever he likes. He needs no "legal" basis in his own country to do anything. The annexation is a nonsense, recognised by nobody but Russia so there is external legal basis. And whether "legal" or not, should he escalate he knows there will be a response which may well be the end for him personally and see the Russian Army put out of its misery in Ukraine.
Ukraine has attacked Crimea and Russian lands in the North and over stepped the red line repeatedly with no response. Russia threatened attacks against convoys supplying weapons in NATO countries and warned against continuing to arm Ukraine. Nothing has happened.
Annexation solves a problem for Putin at home, by giving him the ability to declare a victory and to justify his actions and all the dead soldiers. That's what the celebration today is about - a show of strength at home to try and appease the people. It doesn't make the use of tactical nuclear weapons carry any less consequences, militarily or politically.
He has only ever threatened and got his way. Now he isn't and doesn't know what to do. If he was really willing to die for this cause why not up the ante now? Or three months ago? Why risk a revolt in Russia by calling up conscripts?
His game is to wait it out. He thought the West was divided post Covid, Brexit and the various political discontent around Europe. He was wrong. It's the biggest misjudgement he could have made. He's now banking on the West getting bored with this and scared of energy prices climbing. He's a fool and the longer the sanctions are in place the closer he gets to whoever is next in line having him pushed out of a window. The air of invincibility is wearing off and the self serving people around him will only want to save their own skin. Eventually, the tide will turn. These are not committed nationalists - that's just convenient. They're gangsters and thieves.
He'll go the way many sad old dictators do, hopefully as painfully and in as much fear as possible.
All of Europe joins NATO, that would probably do it.
What if Estonia, Latvia or Lithuanian weren't part of NATO, is there any change they wouldn't be occupied (or run by a puppet like Belarus)? And now we know he would have forced the population to mobilize for Russia, like a plague turning towns into zombie hoards.
Which is happening in occupied Ukraine, another sort of genocide.
I would hope recent history makes it clear that trying to appease the leadership of Russia is pointless, they want way more than Europe is willing to give and nothing less will sate them.
Knowing very little about the conflict in 2008, I thought it was about Russia wanting that naval base, being unwilling to lose it made sense to me. Media definitely let us down back then, falling to frame the situation accurately. They wouldn't even call the troops Russian for ages, like satellite footage wouldn't have shown them coming from Russia.
Because Russia has always been big on liberating people...
I edited my post with the following;
"Set him a deadline. Say if you aren’t out of Ukraine (all of Ukraine) by the end of October, we are going to go in and force you out. And then stick to that.
If you really want to be clever and political about it then you can say “there is no official war therefore we are just going in for training exercises with a prospective NATO member”. Personally I wouldn’t bother with the pretence though. "
Bla bla bla "have to stand up to bullies" bla bla bla. Caution and 'measured responses' only embolden and empower these sorts. There has to be a strong expectation and a strong response - that is the best deterrent. "If you want peace you must prepare for war".
I think the dictator is worried right about now though. Understand the sentiment but the West has taken action this time around and Russian forces are being ran out of Ukraine as we speak.
In other words, be willing to fight Russia? Because if Russia doesn't adhere to your ultimatum, you have to actually fight them, otherwise it's just a bluff that Russia called.
Exactly! This whole thing ends with Putin.
And there is no way out of this for him. It only ends with him dead... in my opinion, that's what he told us today.
Unfortunately, Putin has killed or jailed everyone with opposite ideas. So, he is surrounded with kiss ass idiots who are totally dependent on him for their positions. That's why nobody killed him yet. However, if they are stupid enough to throw 300K unprepared soldiers and they have monumental loses, hopefully someone will put Putin out of his misery.
So, the West has to provide weapons, Germany should provide Leopard tanks, and USA should provide F-16 jets, we are past "escalation" fears, we have to support Ukraine 100%.
@RedRover why do we care about the Russian constitution? Maybe because it's not FOR you or me, it's for the Russian people. Who I attribute to the old "boiled frog" theory if you look that up. Ratchet the heat up slowly and the frogs won't even notice.