Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

I think he notes that Russia is struggling but that the consequence of struggling in Kyiv is a drain of Ukrainian military focus from the Donbas, which is likely to be Russia's primary area of entrenchment. His point, as I understand it, is that the US/NATO probably don't see any (realistic) settlement as a good settlement. Other than that, the primary takeaway is that a settlement will revolve around two key issues. The status of the Donbas and Crimea as well as Ukraine's neutrality which Ukraine wants guaranteed by China/Turkey (for Russian benefit, I think, to make it less partisan) but also the US/UK/NATO. This part could be difficult as how many countries are going to give that guarantee (the UK has outright refused it)?
I think the DNR/LNR is so destroyed at this point that the Ukrainians would be better off leaving them to the Russians who probably won't invest in those regions anyway. Best thing Ukraine could do is become a prosperous country and show the DNR/LNR population what they're missing out on (as there does seem to be a heavy pro-Russian sentiment there).

I think Crimea is gone for the Ukrainians, period. The Russians won't give that up.
 
I've got a lot of respect for @Mciahel Goodman continuing to post in this thread, despite repeated calls for him to be banned.

Whilst I don't agree with some of the things he's said, including that war crimes are war crimes no matter who committed them is a fair stance. There are a few in this thread that will believe every accusation against Russian soldiers, but dispute every accusation against Ukrainian soldiers. That's illogical. Then, when Mciahel tries to add weight to the other side, he's accused of bias. He is probably one of the most useful posters on this thread, allowing real debate, rather than having everyone on here echoing each others feelings.

You might have sympathy for the Ukrainians who have committed war crimes as they are the ones being invaded and have had war crimes committed to them, but the rules of war are set and any breaking of them are war crimes.

I hope, with all the "evidence" being posted online, that any and all suspected war crimes are investigated independently, and anyone caught committing war crimes, is punished to the appropriate level.

For anyone paying close attention to this war and/or Russian activities for the past 20-70 years, It is quite logical through these events for your first stance to be extremely skeptical of claims against Ukrainian soldiers, short of proof. The POW leg thing is one of several elaboratly staged videos to date, by the same film crew maybe, who knows? There will be more.

Re: Mr Goodman, I still can't look past him claiming 'Western Propaganda' is better than Russian propaganda, then citing an article by a known Russian propagandist to back up his argument :lol: It is troll level stuff and trolls should be ignored, where possible...

He's got people in here talking about Ukranian war crimes when we are yet to see evidence of any. It is a fair assumption to make that lines will have been crossed on occasion, I'm sure they have, but I'm yet to actually see it.

The fact we are not even allowed to post the footage of Russian war crimes on here means it is an improper place to discuss these things anyway.
 
OK, it should be punished but trying to paint “sides” here because of these several cases and to deliberately create an illusion in the public space that somehow both sides are not blameless and we should be careful when in fact the blame ratio is probably something like 1:100000000. During these difficult times for Ukraine there should be a total unity in the public space as it pressures western countries for further sanctions or lethal weapons as these decisions are also highly impacted by the domestic opinions which can be influenced deliberately by kremlin trolls like @Mciahel Goodman when they try to show that Ukrainians are not saint here either.

There is unity in the western media, you won't really see a lot of coverage of any wrongdoings of the Ukranian side because of it. They are also so limited it doesn't change the overarching story hence being of less importance, that doesn't mean no journalist will cover it.

This isn't national media it's a football forum in a thread now only read by a small amount of the same posters.

You're not making a logical point you're just trying to flaunt your righteousness by attacking posters. Just like when you emotionally reacted to someone using a valid word like conflict.
 
I still can't look past him claiming 'Western Propaganda' is better than Russian propaganda, then citing an article by a known Russian propagandist to back up his argument
I think that argument was substantiated pretty well in the other thread but it's up to everyone to read for themselves (it is an argument not a "proof", so all I can do is outline why I think it is the case based on what I know of the topic and let others correct me/add/detract wherever seems relevant). Who was the Russian propagandist? Genuinely can't remember.
He's got people in here talking about Ukranian war crimes when we are yet to see evidence of any. It is a fair assumption to make that lines will have been crossed on occasion, I'm sure they have, but I'm yet to actually see it.
Just on this. I didn't raise the POW war crime in this thread, I was posting in reply to a topic that had been discussed, at length, by other posters (carolina red, harms, dwayne, yourself I think, and many more) a day or two ago. I was updating readers of the thread on where the claim now stood (after people were claiming it was outright fake).

But generally, I agree, (and said it a page or two back), that war crimes happen in every war.
 
For anyone paying close attention to this war and/or Russian activities for the past 20-70 years, It is quite logical through these events for your first stance to be extremely skeptical of claims against Ukrainian soldiers, short of proof. The POW leg thing is one of several elaboratly staged videos to date, by the same film crew maybe, who knows? There will be more.

Re: Mr Goodman, I still can't look past him claiming 'Western Propaganda' is better than Russian propaganda, then citing an article by a known Russian propagandist to back up his argument :lol: It is troll level stuff and trolls should be ignored, where possible...

He's got people in here talking about Ukranian war crimes when we are yet to see evidence of any. It is a fair assumption to make that lines will have been crossed on occasion, I'm sure they have, but I'm yet to actually see it.

The fact we are not even allowed to post the footage of Russian war crimes on here means it is an improper place to discuss these things anyway.

Believing that The Intercept is making up sources, even while name dropping them, is not logical. It's absurd, bordering on delusional. And groups like Human Rights Watch disagree that there's no evidence, they've voiced strong concerns. What's your evidence for the video being fake?
 
I think the DNR/LNR is so destroyed at this point that the Ukrainians would be better off leaving them to the Russians who probably won't invest in those regions anyway. Best thing Ukraine could do is become a prosperous country and show the DNR/LNR population what they're missing out on (as there does seem to be a heavy pro-Russian sentiment there).

I think Crimea is gone for the Ukrainians, period. The Russians won't give that up.
Yep, that's my view, too. The question is how you get there, and quick settlement (but a sensible one) is beneficial for Ukrainians but not necessarily beneficial for NATO and that's the larger point Scahill makes. Neutrality, EU membership, and some kind of arrangement in the Donbas with Crimea basically written off seems as inevitable now as it did last week. Long-term, too, the Russians might face problems in the Donbas if Ukraine can achieve its economic potential within a netural/EU framework.
 
The status of the Donbas and Crimea as well as Ukraine's neutrality which Ukraine wants guaranteed by China/Turkey (for Russian benefit, I think, to make it less partisan) but also the US/UK/NATO.
Involving Turkey is definitely not for Russias benefit.

Turkey is a NATO member.
Turkey is delivering the Bayraktar drones that are crucial for Ukraine.
Turkey and Russia fought a proxy war less than two years ago (Armenia against Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabach, decisive win for Turkey-backed Azeris).
 
Involving Turkey is definitely not for Russias benefit.

Turkey is a NATO member.
Turkey is delivering the Bayraktar drones that are crucial for Ukraine.
Turkey and Russia fought a proxy war less than two years ago (Armenia against Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabach, decisive win for Turkey-backed Azeris).
All of that is true, but Russia and Turkey also share some unconventional overlaps because of their proximity. Turkey is not the most conventional member NATO has.

Look at France and Germany. Both NATO members, both directly funding Ukraine, and yet neither has the kind of toxic relationship with Russia that the US and UK have (evidenced by the Minsk format).
 
Meanwhile, having moved troops from the far east to bring them into Ukraine ...

 
Believing that The Intercept is making up sources, even while name dropping them, is not logical. It's absurd, bordering on delusional. And groups like Human Rights Watch disagree that there's no evidence, they've voiced strong concerns. What's your evidence for the video being fake?

I'm not familiar with theintercept (founded by Glenn Greenwald???) but if you were following my posts, i verified their source. Groups like Human Rights Watch have voiced concerns that pow's are filmed being fed, treated and calling their families... Which, no matter what your interpretation of that passage in the Geneva Convention written 70 years ago is, is just insane in the scheme of things.

For the fake video... I would point to it being filmed in the first place and quickly given to Russian intelligence for release as the first reason to dismiss it completely, as well as the location more than likely being in Russian hands at the time it was filmed and their preivous productions. If you want to go more in depth though read through this thread.



Continued...
 
I think the DNR/LNR is so destroyed at this point that the Ukrainians would be better off leaving them to the Russians who probably won't invest in those regions anyway. Best thing Ukraine could do is become a prosperous country and show the DNR/LNR population what they're missing out on (as there does seem to be a heavy pro-Russian sentiment there).

I think Crimea is gone for the Ukrainians, period. The Russians won't give that up.
The problem is that Putin probably doesn’t want the DNR and LNR to be a burden on Russia. He was interested in them being a cancerous growth on Ukraine, through which he could indirectly exert influence, but there’s little to suggest he has ever wanted to incorporate them into Russia and take responsibility for them.
 
I think the DNR/LNR is so destroyed at this point that the Ukrainians would be better off leaving them to the Russians who probably won't invest in those regions anyway. Best thing Ukraine could do is become a prosperous country and show the DNR/LNR population what they're missing out on (as there does seem to be a heavy pro-Russian sentiment there).

I think Crimea is gone for the Ukrainians, period. The Russians won't give that up.

Look at the untapped gas fields:

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News from the denazification front..


I think in one of Elena Kostyuchenko’s texts there was a scene from Belarus with a Russian soldier coming to a pawnshop with a bunch of golden teeth, chainlets etc. (which ended up into him beating the shit out of the owner and, eventually, getting rescued from the police by his superiors). Not sure if her texts were translated to English yet, she’s a correspondent from Novaya Gazeta that spent the past month in Ukraine, visiting Mariupol, Kherson, Odessa among other cities. Horrendous stuff. Novaya Gazeta was eventually shut down because of her texts even though they’ve lasted longer than literally any other independent Russian media that haven’t relocated abroad.
 
I think in one of Elena Kostyuchenko’s texts there was a scene from Belarus with a Russian soldier coming to a pawnshop with a bunch of golden teeth, chainlets etc. (which ended up into him beating the shit out of the owner and, eventually, getting rescued from the police by his superiors). Not sure if her texts were translated to English yet, she’s a correspondent from Novaya Gazeta that spent the past month in Ukraine, visiting Mariupol, Kherson, Odessa among other cities. Horrendous stuff. Novaya Gazeta was eventually shut down because of her texts even though they’ve lasted longer than literally any other independent Russian media that haven’t relocated abroad.

Golden teeth? FFS
 
About 75% of its active force.
That's insanely high for a country of their size.
I’m not sure about that number although it depends on the definition of active force. Russian army has around 1,8 million personnel, around 1 million of them are military — the rest are administrative etc. Around 260 thousands out of that 1 million are conscripts (2 call ups by roughly 130 thousands). Which leaves around 740k? There are certainly less than 75% of that in Ukraine. Although I’m not a military expert at all, but I believe that the 75% number was based on the original estimate of the potential forces that could’ve been used in the conflict.

You have to also include Rosgvardia (National Guard) — a militarized police force that is also used in Ukraine even though they’re not part of the army (army answers to Ministry of Defense, Rosgvardia answers to Ministry of Internal Affairs). I’m not sure if their numbers in Ukraine were published but overall there’s around 340 thousands of them.

Anyway, it does look like Russia doesn’t have a lot of reserves that they can realistically add to their offensive.
 
What proportion of the Russian army is meant to be in Ukraine now?

I’m not sure about that number although it depends on the definition of active force. Russian army has around 1,8 million personnel, around 1 million of them are military — the rest are administrative etc. Around 260 thousands out of that 1 million are conscripts (2 call ups by roughly 130 thousands). Which leaves around 740k? There are certainly less than 75% of that in Ukraine. Although I’m not a military expert at all, but I believe that the 75% number was based on the original estimate of the potential forces that could’ve been used in the conflict.

You have to also include Rosgvardia (National Guard) — a militarized police force that is also used in Ukraine even though they’re not part of the army (army answers to Ministry of Defense, Rosgvardia answers to Ministry of Internal Affairs). I’m not sure if their numbers in Ukraine were published but overall there’s around 340 thousands of them.

Anyway, it does look like Russia doesn’t have a lot of reserves that they can realistically add to their offensive.
If you look at it based on the Russian Army’s order of battle, elements (in part or in whole) of the following field armies have been committed to Ukraine…

1st Guards Tank Army
2nd Guards Combined Arms Army
5th Combined Arms Army
6th Combined Arms Army
8th Guards Combined Arms Army
20th Guards Combined Arms Army
29th Combined Arms Army
35th Combined Arms Army
36th Combined Arms Army
41st Combined Arms Army
49th Combined Arms Army
58th Combined Arms Army
11th Army Corps
14th Army Corps

This means the Russian Army has pulled combat units from 14 of their 16 total field armies for the invasion.
 
It's the International Criminal Court that would investigate them I think.

Look, as I and others have said, YES, the war crimes committed by the Russian leadership is atrocious, the blanket bombing of civilians is disgusting, but the torture of PoWs is a war crime, no matter who committed them, and ALL war crimes should be punished.

If people want Ukraine to be held by those standards and be judged for their share of war crimes, then why now of all places? Why did no one even bother going after the Viet-Cong, the Mujahideen and the Taliban? They won their wars for their own existence and yet probably did their share of war crimes, but no one went after them publicly.
 
If you look at it based on the Russian Army’s order of battle, elements (in part or in whole) of the following field armies have been committed to Ukraine…

1st Guards Tank Army
2nd Guards Combined Arms Army
5th Combined Arms Army
6th Combined Arms Army
8th Guards Combined Arms Army
20th Guards Combined Arms Army
29th Combined Arms Army
35th Combined Arms Army
36th Combined Arms Army
41st Combined Arms Army
49th Combined Arms Army
58th Combined Arms Army
11th Army Corps
14th Army Corps

This means the Russian Army has pulled combat units from 14 of their 16 total field armies for the invasion.
I'm speaking out my ass a bit here, but given that they pulled units from as far as the Far East district, I think they probably committed well over 75% of what they have available of professional units for offensive action. Meaning that if Putin asked his military to launch an offensive campaign anywhere else right now they'd probably just have to laugh at him.

Modern militaries just aren't that big, not when compared to the giant WW2 armies that were a result of commiting over 50% of GDP towards the war on the part of most belligerents. Even the US Army only has 11 divisions today compared to the 91 that were raised during WW2.