Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

stefan92

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Yes but everything we've seen online has been coming from the parody account. Unless Girkin has a real social media account or telegram channel i don't know about.
He is active on Telegram and gave some interviews.
 

Krakenzero

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Fantastic news from the northeast if true. Maybe this is the point of inflection we were hoping for.

The UA should have by now:
-More units available on the battlefront.
-Better prepared/equipped units.
-A better and more consistent flow of weapons coming from the west.
-The cappacity of launching offensives.
-A better logistics/chain of supply systems.
-A better working chain of command.
-A huge boost in morale.

Putin seems to be running low on options available. By now it looks like what he can do is:

A) Do nothing, prepare for more losses and get his leadership questioned in the months to come.
B) Dig in, wait for the winter and hope the EU gets inconvenienced enough to pressure Ukraine for peace (increasingly unlikely).
C) Call for a full mobilization, which will simultaneuously take time, money they don't have and draw attention to the fact that they're losing the w, err, Special Operation to a former colony/vassal state with all the political consequences implied. And, of course, this doesn't even guarantee a win in the battlefield.
D) Go nuclear and/or WMD, which doesn't necessarily achieve any military goal and isolates them from the rest of the world (without even considering the small possibility of retaliation from other nuclear powers).

Is there any other way out?
 

Don't Kill Bill

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Fantastic news from the northeast if true. Maybe this is the point of inflection we were hoping for.

The UA should have by now:
-More units available on the battlefront.
-Better prepared/equipped units.
-A better and more consistent flow of weapons coming from the west.
-The cappacity of launching offensives.
-A better logistics/chain of supply systems.
-A better working chain of command.
-A huge boost in morale.

Putin seems to be running low on options available. By now it looks like what he can do is:

A) Do nothing, prepare for more losses and get his leadership questioned in the months to come.
B) Dig in, wait for the winter and hope the EU gets inconvenienced enough to pressure Ukraine for peace (increasingly unlikely).
C) Call for a full mobilization, which will simultaneuously take time, money they don't have and draw attention to the fact that they're losing the w, err, Special Operation to a former colony/vassal state with all the political consequences implied. And, of course, this doesn't even guarantee a win in the battlefield.
D) Go nuclear and/or WMD, which doesn't necessarily achieve any military goal and isolates them from the rest of the world (without even considering the small possibility of retaliation from other nuclear powers).

Is there any other way out?
Some one close to Putin puts a bullet in his head and the new President calls off and decries the special operation before the Russian army is massacred.
 

Krakenzero

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Some one close to Putin puts a bullet in his head and the new President calls off and decries the special operation before the Russian army is massacred.
You're right, I forgot the Putin's Smoking Problem option. How likely is it tough? He's probably surrounded by a battallion of yes men whose only real merit is loyalty. To Putin, not Russia. That would make it really hard for a scheme to work.
 

harms

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Yes but everything we've seen online has been coming from the parody account. Unless Girkin has a real social media account or telegram channel i don't know about.
He has a telegram channel & he has been arguably the most honest and reliable source of information from the Russian side (he highlights all the fails and inefficiencies as he tries to argue for a more active and well-supported offense).
 

Rajma

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Those reports from earlier on Donetsk airport being in Ukrainian hands might have had something in them, suggestions now that the battle for Donetsk might be underway.
 

Rajma

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Ridiculous to even think about two days ago.
It’s very chaotic though, can be a lot of jumping the gun so have to keep this in mind. The way things are unfolding I doubt even the top commanders have real-time full picture of what’s happening on the ground currently.
 

harms

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It’s a shame that the translation doesn’t fully grasp the lengths they go to hide that it’s a retreat :lol:

Operation to furl/convolute and relocate the forces in an organized fashion.
 

Rajma

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Just a little glimpse of what RF left in Izium for Ukrainians as gesture of goodwill (watch video in reply to this ridiculous propaganda tweet).
 
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TMDaines

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Shakhtar will be back at home in the CL after the international break at this rate! :drool:
 

Dan600

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Are the Russian's really this ill prepared? I can't believe how easy Ukraine are finding it to push them back. If it signals the end of Putin followed by a change in Russia's future stance in relation to the world stage then this could be fantastic. But at the same time, the speed with which they are losing and pulling back is making me a little uneasy.

Is it really this easy or do they have something more sinister planned, hence the pulling back of their military and people? What are people thinking?
 

The Purley King

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This is great news.
However, now comes the crunch time for putin.
Humiliated and defeated, will he just suck it up?
5 options I think.
1 suck it up
2 full mobilisation under the guise of perceived western aggression
3 nuclear
4 someone kills putin
5 he resigns

Hoping for 1,4 or 5 but they all seem somewhat unlikely…..
caveat is I don’t really have any great understanding of the situation
 

dove

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Are the Russian's really this ill prepared? I can't believe how easy Ukraine are finding it to push them back. If it signals the end of Putin followed by a change in Russia's future stance in relation to the world stage then this could be fantastic. But at the same time, the speed with which they are losing and pulling back is making me a little uneasy.

Is it really this easy or do they have something more sinister planned, hence the pulling back of their military and people? What are people thinking?
In my opinion the last 6 months or so showed that Russia are not really capable of planning anything and the only reason they managed to take some land is purely because of their military superiority against Ukraine. The latest weapons provided by the west changed the game in the last couple of months, especially HIMARS. So many ammo warehouses and bases were blown up it must have hurt Russia pretty badly especially as they were running low on everything for some time already. Russia's loses were never sustainable in the long run, 50k or so dead is insane number. Safe to assume that at least that or most likely more are injured/captured too. They simply don't have enough resources to fully control the massive frontline so once you break through the first line of defence, you can pretty much slice it for 10s of kilometers.
 

The Firestarter

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The sensible thing for the Russians now would be to pull from the south and fortify Crimea because things could unravel very quickly there. But when have they done anything sensible in the last 20 years...
 

TMDaines

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The sensible thing for the Russians now would be to pull from the south and fortify Crimea because things could unravel very quickly there. But when have they done anything sensible in the last 20 years...
Not sure they can hold Crimea if they are tumbling like this. Ukraine can blow the bridge from Russia, cut the water supply and make life there extremely miserable.
 

the hea

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Are the Russian's really this ill prepared? I can't believe how easy Ukraine are finding it to push them back. If it signals the end of Putin followed by a change in Russia's future stance in relation to the world stage then this could be fantastic. But at the same time, the speed with which they are losing and pulling back is making me a little uneasy.

Is it really this easy or do they have something more sinister planned, hence the pulling back of their military and people? What are people thinking?
It seems so. With all the equipment they have left behind and how uncordinated they are behaving this is not a retreat or anything they planned, it's a rout. It seems like the command and communication structure of the whole Kharkiv line is dysfunctional and the Russian groups have no idea what they are supposed to do. So they just run.
This could have been avoided if they had built a layered defence with prepared defensive lines behind the front, that they could retreat to in case of a Ukrainian breakthrough. Just like the Ukrainians did in Severodonetsk earlier in the war.
 

The Firestarter

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It seems so. With all the equipment they have left behind and how uncordinated they are behaving this is not a retreat or anything they planned, it's a rout. It seems like the command and communication structure of the whole Kharkiv line is dysfunctional and the Russian groups have no idea what they are supposed to do. So they just run.
This could have been avoided if they had built a layered defence with prepared defensive lines behind the front, that they could retreat to in case of a Ukrainian breakthrough. Just like the Ukrainians did in Severodonetsk earlier in the war.
Again some mind-boggling over confidence that the UAF can't possibly attempt something so bold. Disregarding a very basic war rule I guess.
 

TMDaines

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It seems so. With all the equipment they have left behind and how uncordinated they are behaving this is not a retreat or anything they planned, it's a rout. It seems like the command and communication structure of the whole Kharkiv line is dysfunctional and the Russian groups have no idea what they are supposed to do. So they just run.
This could have been avoided if they had built a layered defence with prepared defensive lines behind the front, that they could retreat to in case of a Ukrainian breakthrough. Just like the Ukrainians did in Severodonetsk earlier in the war.
It’s almost as if nobody in Russian army and everyone forced at gunpoint to conscript believes in their cause being worth fighting for…