Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[Beans]

Found online:

In 1939 Hitler, and his entourage, talking of Poland, said the following: "an artificially created state, a gift from us", "this so-called state that does not have any national, historical, cultural and moral basis", "the favorite pet dog of Western democracies, which cannot be considered a cultured people at all", "I don't see a future for Americans... This country is in decline. They have racial problems and social inequality... How will they hold their own?"

This is literally the same thing Putin said today on Red Square in Moscow regarding Ukraine and the West. So what is the difference between Hitler and Putin?

 

[Bosnian_fan]

Russizm in their own words:

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

What a delusional moron. They may have a role to play soon considering how the war is going, but on their own territory.

 

[Beans]

The ending is quite funny, he says “God is with us” straight after the murdering and looting stuff.

Must be the Old Testament Yahweh, that guys an a$$hole to be fair. Pretty sure he tells people to murder and rape if I remember correctly.

 

[harms]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

David Firth, the man, the legend. Hopefully soon Putin will find himself in the Salad Fingers limbo with no way to escape.

 

[stefan92]

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2022/09/30/its-a-slaughter/

Report from the front. Sounds like it's a total disaster for the Russians who just get massacred. Ukrainian units having to retreat unharmed just because they are out of ammo and comparing the fight there to hunting squirrels

 

[clarkydaz]

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2022/09/30/its-a-slaughter/
Ukrainian units having to retreat unharmed just because they are out of ammo and comparing the fight there to hunting squirrels

 

[Gehrman]

Found online:

In 1939 Hitler, and his entourage, talking of Poland, said the following: "an artificially created state, a gift from us", "this so-called state that does not have any national, historical, cultural and moral basis", "the favorite pet dog of Western democracies, which cannot be considered a cultured people at all", "I don't see a future for Americans... This country is in decline. They have racial problems and social inequality... How will they hold their own?"

This is literally the same thing Putin said today on Red Square in Moscow regarding Ukraine and the West. So what is the difference between Hitler and Putin?

Hitler steamrolled Europe. Putin has lost 25% of his fighting force to occupy 20% of Ukraine.

 

[hellhunter]

Hitler steamrolled Europe. Putin has lost 25% of his fighting force to occupy 20% of Ukraine.

While threatening everyone thinking about getting involved with nukes

 

[stefan92]

Hitler steamrolled Europe. Putin has lost 25% of his fighting force to occupy 20% of Ukraine.

Exactly... against Hitler's Reich the whole civilised world needed to mobilize all possible industrial and military capabilities. Against Putin it seems so far mostly to be enough to just dump old garbage that's already replaced or going to be replaced soon.

 

[rpitchfo]

Exactly... against Hitler's Reich the whole civilised world needed to mobilize all possible industrial and military capabilities. Against Putin it seems so far mostly to be enough to just dump old garbage that's already replaced or going to be replaced soon.

the Russian military are in complete chaos and have shown themselves to be incapable.

nato are sitting in the background preparing for worst case scenario I imagine.

russia aren’t in a position to launch an offensive against any nato country, but if they tried, it wouldn’t last long.

 

[Rajma]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Rajma]

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2022/09/30/its-a-slaughter/

Report from the front. Sounds like it's a total disaster for the Russians who just get massacred. Ukrainian units having to retreat unharmed just because they are out of ammo and comparing the fight there to hunting squirrels

Imagine the PTSD levels of these brave soldiers after this is all over, huge resources will need to be put in place to work with their mental health.

 

[stefan92]

Imagine the PTSD levels of these brave soldiers after this is all over, huge resources will need to be put in place to work with their mental health.

Good point, war is a disaster for everyone involved. It's often overlooked sadly.

 

[Beans]

Hitler steamrolled Europe. Putin has lost 25% of his fighting force to occupy 20% of Ukraine.

Are they not feeding their soldiers horse doses of meth? Crucial element of Nazi tactics.

 

[Buster15]

the Russian military are in complete chaos and have shown themselves to be incapable.

nato are sitting in the background preparing for worst case scenario I imagine.

russia aren’t in a position to launch an offensive against any nato country, but if they tried, it wouldn’t last long.

That is right.
Nevertheless, when you think about it, while completely reprehensible, the annexation of those Ukrainian territories is actually a sound strategy by Putin.
By doing that, he has created a situation where Ukraine is forced to end up attacking what he would say is an attack on Russian territory.
And it puts NATO in a more difficult position.

Please don't think I am defending Putin. I am just pointing out the latest position.

 

[harms]

That is right.
Nevertheless, when you think about it, while completely reprehensible, the annexation of those Ukrainian territories is actually a sound strategy by Putin.
By doing that, he has created a situation where Ukraine is forced to end up attacking what he would say is an attack on Russian territory.
And it puts NATO in a more difficult position.

Please don't think I am defending Putin. I am just pointing out the latest position.

Why would it put NATO in a more difficult position? No one relevant to NATO’s decision-makers would care about this artificial switch from defending to “attacking”.

 

[VorZakone]

By the way, why is Russia actually mobilizing? Don't they have a 1M army at all times anyway?

Russia didn't commit all of it to the Ukraine invasion as far as I know so one would assume they still have a sizeable part of their professional military available.

 

[stefan92]

Why would it put NATO in a more difficult position? No one relevant to NATO’s decision-makers would care about this artificial switch from defending to “attacking”.

I think he is right that the formal annexation is a try to prevent NATO from supporting attacks on these areas. It simply hasn't paid off as it was already confirmed that no one accepts these annexations as legal. Basically what is happening at the moment is that NATO doesn't believe that Russia is going to defend these oblasts like they would do their true own territory. But that is a gamble on both sides. Putin is bluffing (is he really?) and NATO/Ukraine is calling his bluff.

 

[harms]

By the way, why is Russia actually mobilizing? Don't they have a 1M army at all times anyway?

Russia didn't commit all of it to the Ukraine invasion as far as I know so one would assume they still have a sizeable part of their professional military available.

De jure it has bit in reality there aren’t any significant reserves left. One of the theories was that the newly mobilized recruits would replace regular army on secure military objects, borders etc. which would free those up to be used in Ukraine but in reality it looks more likely that the mobilized are going to be sent directly into battle.

 

[Raoul]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[stefan92]

By the way, why is Russia actually mobilizing? Don't they have a 1M army at all times anyway?

Russia didn't commit all of it to the Ukraine invasion as far as I know so one would assume they still have a sizeable part of their professional military available.

Not really, as not everyone of them is a fighter. They need backroom staff for organizing things etc, also they can't use the Pacific and Arctic naval fleets, neither the nuclear missile bases and their troops (or they can only transfer a limited amount of them as we have already seen dead soldiers who usually serve at Plesetsk Cosmodrome). They can't use a huge part of their aviation (strategic bombers can't be used safely in Ukraine, they can't retreat all troops from "interesting" borders (be sure that Georgia is just waiting to take their territory back from Russia...).

 

[Max_United]

That is right.
Nevertheless, when you think about it, while completely reprehensible, the annexation of those Ukrainian territories is actually a sound strategy by Putin.
By doing that, he has created a situation where Ukraine is forced to end up attacking what he would say is an attack on Russian territory.
And it puts NATO in a more difficult position.

Please don't think I am defending Putin. I am just pointing out the latest position.

But the thing is - significant parts of what he is claiming to be russian territory now are not only Ukrainian under international law but also controlled by Ukraine and a part of that territory was even not under Russian control at any point in time. He did it in a way that is too ludicrous to accept even if NATO were super eager to freeze the conflict for the fear of nukes - since otherwise you are basically accepting that any nuclear state can indiscriminately just declare a part of any other "non-nuclear" state to be its territory and threaten with nukes if this state and does not comply and/or NATO etc intervenes.

 

[Rajma]

By the way, why is Russia actually mobilizing? Don't they have a 1M army at all times anyway?

Russia didn't commit all of it to the Ukraine invasion as far as I know so one would assume they still have a sizeable part of their professional military available.

In Russia everything is on paper, their active armed forces amounted to around 250k pre-invasion or at least in that ballpark according to many sources, the rest probably have never held a gun in their lives, this is what they’re actually mobilizing right now.

 

[stefan92]

But the thing is - significant parts of what he is claiming to be russian territory now are not only Ukrainian under international law but also controlled by Ukraine and a part of that territory was even not under Russian control at any point in time. He did it in a way that is too ludicrous to accept even if NATO were super eager to freeze the conflict for the fear of nukes - since otherwise you are basically accepting that any nuclear state can indiscriminately just declare a part of any other "non-nuclear" state to be its territory and threaten with nukes if this state and does not comply and/or NATO etc intervenes.

Again, NATO can't end the war. A deal can only be made between Ukraine and Russia and everyone else might assist in talks, but that's it.

 

[the hea]

By the way, why is Russia actually mobilizing? Don't they have a 1M army at all times anyway?

Russia didn't commit all of it to the Ukraine invasion as far as I know so one would assume they still have a sizeable part of their professional military available.

Not all of them are soldiers in the ground forces that can be deployed on the front lines in Ukraine. A big chunk of that 1 million belongs to the navy, aerospace forces and the strategic rocket forces. All of those are more advanced braches that require specialized personel so I would expect that the majority of the active personal are employed within those.

 

[Buster15]

Why would it put NATO in a more difficult position? No one relevant to NATO’s decision-makers would care about this artificial switch from defending to “attacking”.

That is true. But in the event that some form of weaponry or missile supplied by a NATO member to Ukraine is then found to have killed any Russian soldiers, Putin can claim that this was an attack by a NATO member against Russia.

 

[Lemoor]

Why would it put NATO in a more difficult position? No one relevant to NATO’s decision-makers would care about this artificial switch from defending to “attacking”.

If it meaningfully affected public opinion there then maybe someone would care, but that's obviously not going to happen.

 

[Beans]

But in the event that some form of weaponry or missile supplied by a NATO member to Ukraine is then found to have killed any Russian soldiers, Putin can claim that this was an attack by a NATO member against Russia.

That's already happened in Crimea, and Ukraine already launched at Belgorod, so it's too late to try to draw a red line there.

 

[neverdie]

Why would it put NATO in a more difficult position? No one relevant to NATO’s decision-makers would care about this artificial switch from defending to “attacking”.

if they start reporting attacks within russia, even if no one beyond russia buys it, you don't think it alters things? putin has said "this land is russian". what happens when the land he's told russians is russian comes under sustained attack, which will be the effect now, from nato funded forces? it makes escalation seem more dangerous from where i'm sitting because it can happen much quicker. it is a red line, whether or not anyone decides to respect it is another thing. but to ignore it outright brings its own risks and that's what the effect of it is. it's not entirely a bluff imo. it's the confirmation of what some here said a long time ago. that if and when nato support began to tell, russia would move to leverage its nuclear and other small scale wmd arsenal.

 

[harms]

That is true. But in the event that some form of weaponry or missile supplied by a NATO member to Ukraine is then found to have killed any Russian soldiers, Putin can claim that this was an attack by a NATO member against Russia.

Again, claim to whom? To the international community? No one would bat an eyelid. To Russians themselves? He and his propagandists literally have been saying that Russia is at war with NATO, not with Ukraine, for months.

 

[Max_United]

That is true. But in the event that some form of weaponry or missile supplied by a NATO member to Ukraine is then found to have killed any Russian soldiers, Putin can claim that this was an attack by a NATO member against Russia.

He does not need any pretext. On Russian TV the war is described as a war with NATO for months since it became obvious that no quick victory can be achieved and it is too shameful to admit that "mighty Russian army" is struggling against Ukraine who is "not even a real state". Crimea and Belgirod were already shelled, possibly with western weaponry. He repeatedly threatened that the supply of western weapons to Ukraine is the act of aggression against Russia and so on. The whole "not giving Putin casus belli" needs to stop. If he wants to escalate and there is no immediate pretext, he will invent it. Otherwise you are ending up bowing to his demands. And that is exactly what he wants. Threaten, put some show of force - everyone is scared and he gets what he wants without much risk and outlay. That was his initial plan in February and that is why he put an amount of troops that were completely insufficient and ill-prepared to conquer Ukraine in a real war when a military actually resists (as opposed to most of it surrendering without fight).

 

[Buster15]

But the thing is - significant parts of what he is claiming to be russian territory now are not only Ukrainian under international law but also controlled by Ukraine and a part of that territory was even not under Russian control at any point in time. He did it in a way that is too ludicrous to accept even if NATO were super eager to freeze the conflict for the fear of nukes - since otherwise you are basically accepting that any nuclear state can indiscriminately just declare a part of any other "non-nuclear" state to be its territory and threaten with nukes if this state and does not comply and/or NATO etc intervenes.

It gives Putin the opportunity, as with Crimea

That's already happened in Crimea, and Ukraine already launched at Belgorod, so it's too late to try to draw a red line there.

Ok. But they have deliberately rushed to annex these new regions because of the progress Ukraine has been making.
All I am saying is that it is a sound strategy.

 

[stefan92]

if they start reporting attacks within russia, even if no one beyond russia buys it, you don't think it alters things?

No, because it hasn't made any difference so far when Ukraine attacked targets on Crimea and in/near Belgorod (especially the latter is undoubtedly Russian territory)

 

[neverdie]

No, because it hasn't made any difference so far when Ukraine attacked targets on Crimea and in/near Belgorod (especially the latter is undoubtedly Russian territory)

this is true. the one effect, then, is putin saying "we consider this to be the line". that might well be ignored. i don't know, in truth, but that's definitely why he did it when he did it. a statement of his intent basically.

 

[MuFc_1992]

That is true. But in the event that some form of weaponry or missile supplied by a NATO member to Ukraine is then found to have killed any Russian soldiers, Putin can claim that this was an attack by a NATO member against Russia.

He's already claiming it and the weaponry is already killing Russian soldiers. Ukraine have also attacked Crimea and Russian Black sea fleet so, this basically changes nothing. I think the biggest worry is Russia mobilizing Ukrainians from the annexed teritory.

 

[the hea]

It gives Putin the opportunity, as with Crimea

Putin dosen't need any oppotunities and if he needs one he will just make one up anyway.

 

[Max_United]

It gives Putin the opportunity, as with Crimea


Ok. But they have deliberately rushed to annex these new regions because of the progress Ukraine has been making.
All I am saying is that it is a sound strategy.

I do not agree that it is sound. You can see the logic, yes - but it is entirely a bet on the other side being scared and backing down and then you are "fixing the gains". But if Ukraine and the West call him bluff and he was not really prepared to escalate and was just bluffing - it leaves him in a precarious position.

Mobilization is unpopular, takes time and not particularly effective. Military setback and losing some occupied territories is one thing - but annexation means he us now demonstably unable to properly defend a "constitutionally Russian" territory (prorussian population in the likes of Donetsk was actually were hopeful that once they are "officially Russia" would mean they they are a lot safer and protected. And Nationalists won't be satisfied either). Plus sanctions and even China/India won't be too happy, so cannot imagine that it brings him the desired standing in the world.

And finally, before that Crimea was a special case and even in the negative Scenario for Russia they could argue "we wanted only it really all the other we were just worried about Russian speakers but not annexed them etc etc"- actually Putin said it himself in 2014 (of course he was lying but still), and Russia was likely to have some "consolation prize" e.g. by keeping Crimea (even Zelenskiy was open to leaving Crimea under de-facto Russian control for at least 15 years under peace settlement at the start of the war - not any more). But now Crimea lost this status, all land that Russia still controls in Ukraine is same and they might end up losing them all.

 

[the hea]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Frosty]

So with Lyman surrounded what are the chances for that front to collapse?

 

[Beans]

Ok. But they have deliberately rushed to annex these new regions because of the progress Ukraine has been making.
All I am saying is that it is a sound strategy.

They don't even control all of the land in those regions, kinda undermines the idea of drawing a line there, so I don't see how it's a sound strategy. What changes from this strategy, how will things go differently?

Putin has already claimed NATO is fighting with Ukraine on the ground, I don't see how that helps him. He might even drop tactical nukes on Ukraine soldiers now, trying to create a new red line, but that wouldn't make annexation a good strategy imho. He could draw any arbitrary line on the map then threaten nukes, I don't see how the annexation helps achieve anything that occupation didn't.