Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Buster15

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He's already claiming it and the weaponry is already killing Russian soldiers. Ukraine have also attacked Crimea and Russian Black sea fleet so, this basically changes nothing. I think the biggest worry is Russia mobilizing Ukrainians from the annexed teritory.
Russian soldiers in Ukraine. Not Russian soldiers in (what he is claiming) as Russia.
Putin is itching for a fight with NATO, what he refers to as the West. It is behind this whole mess. And because he is doing so badly conventionally, upping the stakes will be his reaction.
 

Lemoor

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Ok. But they have deliberately rushed to annex these new regions because of the progress Ukraine has been making.
All I am saying is that it is a sound strategy.
There is also a possibility that he's not an Amazing Master Strategist, mobilisation decision is unpopular domestically and he's trying to use this for domestic propaganda purposes.
We already know that nobody outside of Russia changed their behavior because of those gunpoint referendums.
 

TwoSheds

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Russian soldiers in Ukraine. Not Russian soldiers in (what he is claiming) as Russia.
Putin is itching for a fight with NATO, what he refers to as the West. It is behind this whole mess. And because he is doing so badly conventionally, upping the stakes will be his reaction.
I really don't think he is itching for a fight with NATO, if he were he'd have invaded Estonia or somewhere rather than Ukraine. He attacked Ukraine because he thought they couldn't defend themselves and he's a bully.

All he's itching for is to blame any failures on NATO rather than the country he's been shit talking for years, and to somehow work out a way to claim a win. Which of course is very unlikely at this point. And if he were to use a nuke or something that might well end up even worse than just getting his people killed by the thousands and failing to "defend" their acquired territory. What reason would anyone have to not invade Russia proper if he were already using nukes? What reason would the world have not to assassinate him and his ministers?
 

Raoul

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There is also a possibility that he's not an Amazing Master Strategist, mobilisation decision is unpopular domestically and he's trying to use this for domestic propaganda purposes.
We already know that nobody outside of Russia changed their behavior because of those gunpoint referendums.
Putin tends to look more effective when he manages to convince certain European leaders he is someone they can do business with, who they can convince to be more friendly through negotiations and some degree of appeasement. That is obviously no longer possible (despite Macron & Scholz’s best attempts), and leaders are finally beginning to realize the best way to deal with him is to gradually weaken him until he falls from within.
 

stefan92

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So with Lyman surrounded what are the chances for that front to collapse?
The latest update from Rybar (pro-Russian) shows it already under full Ukrainian control:

Looks like the troops who stayed in Lyman are either killed or surrendered. Most of them apparently tried to break through to Kreminna during the night and took heavy losses on the road between Torskoye and Kreminna (you see the contested area were the Ukrainian troops (blue) arrived from the south and could attack the full length of that road). My post from earlier today was about the fight in that area, allegedly it was like "hunting squirrels" for the Ukrainian troops.

EDIT: I forgot to mention that there are also reports that Russian command has also already left Kreminna so they don't look confident that they can hold it. Considering that they also send massive reinforcements towards Lyman it's likely that there are indeed not very much strong units left in that area so a collapse is possible.
 

MuFc_1992

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Russian soldiers in Ukraine. Not Russian soldiers in (what he is claiming) as Russia.
Putin is itching for a fight with NATO, what he refers to as the West. It is behind this whole mess. And because he is doing so badly conventionally, upping the stakes will be his reaction.
He's been claiming Crimea is part of Russia since 2014 and Russian soldiers have died there. There have even been causalities in Belgorod which is legit Russian territory. Also, why would Putin be itching for a fight with NATO when he's struggling to even fight Ukraine unless he wants to use Nukes and take everyone down with him but you can't just grant a tyrant whatever he wants just out of fear of nuclear Armageddon because in that case we should also be surrendering south Korea to Kim jong un.
 

Frosty

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The latest update from Rybar (pro-Russian) shows it already under full Ukrainian control:

Looks like the troops who stayed in Lyman are either killed or surrendered. Most of them apparently tried to break through to Kreminna during the night and took heavy losses on the road between Torskoye and Kreminna (you see the contested area were the Ukrainian troops (blue) arrived from the south and could attack the full length of that road). My post from earlier today was about the fight in that area, allegedly it was like "hunting squirrels" for the Ukrainian troops.
Thanks- sorry I missed the earlier message. This reminds me a little of the Allies Hundred Days in 1918. Attack one area and start rolling it up. When that front stabilises move focus and keep the defenders constantly on the move.
 

stefan92

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Thanks- sorry I missed the earlier message. This reminds me a little of the Allies Hundred Days in 1918. Attack one area and start rolling it up. When that front stabilises move focus and keep the defenders constantly on the move.
Earlier it looked like there was still fighting in Lyman, now the Russians believe that they have completely lost it, so it was news now ;)

And it might be a good comparison. At least it looks like in that area every successful Ukrainian offense does lead to a massive loss of heavy equipment for the Russians (which can partly be taken into service by Ukraine). This makes it more and more difficult for the Russians to resist further attacks
 

The Firestarter

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Russian soldiers in Ukraine. Not Russian soldiers in (what he is claiming) as Russia.
Putin is itching for a fight with NATO, what he refers to as the West. It is behind this whole mess. And because he is doing so badly conventionally, upping the stakes will be his reaction.
No he is not itching for a fight with nato, because even in the deranged state he is in, he knows that will lead to the complete demilitarisation of Russia. Even if someone had any doubts about that 6 months ago, it is completely obvious now.
 

stefan92

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kashmir was my thought.
Exactly. Not condemning the Russian behaviour doesn't necessarily mean supporting Russia in this current war, but can also simply be to leave options open to do something similar.
 

stefan92

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I won't post them here but there are a lot of videos/pictures emerging showing the aftermath of the Lyman battle and the Russian retreat. Lots and lots of dead Russian bodies and AFU estimate that there are around 900 dead Russians only on the road out of Lyman. PoWs and casualties from the actual city and it's surroundings aren't even included in that. Lots of destroyed vehicles as well. Reminds me a bit of the "Highway of Death" in Iraq 1991.
 

tomaldinho1

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this is true. the one effect, then, is putin saying "we consider this to be the line". that might well be ignored. i don't know, in truth, but that's definitely why he did it when he did it. a statement of his intent basically.
Putin is basically a one trick pony, he’s like a poker player who aggressively bluffs and his opposition know it’s likely a bluff but don’t want to take the risk themselves. NATO until now has basically not done anything to curb his aggression but that changed with the reaction to this invasion. NATO adapted their approach but Putin hasn’t, he’s not some great strategist (in fact it looks like he’s terrible judging by reports he was directly working with the military) this is all he has, escalation after escalation until he wins or loses. He will lose if the West keeps backing Ukraine.
 

Gehrman

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Putin is basically a one trick pony, he’s like a poker player who aggressively bluffs and his opposition know it’s likely a bluff but don’t want to take the risk themselves. NATO until now has basically not done anything to curb his aggression but that changed with the reaction to this invasion. NATO adapted their approach but Putin hasn’t, he’s not some great strategist (in fact it looks like he’s terrible judging by reports he was directly working with the military) this is all he has, escalation after escalation until he wins or loses. He will lose if the West keeps backing Ukraine.
Just like most dictators his years of power has made him narcisstic and he's surrounded himself with yes men. It's why someone who's never in touch with reality can win the war in the long run.
 

devilish

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Nato should accept Ukraine within its family. Since its a defensive alliance Its deployment should be that of stopping any foreign army from trespassing into non annexed territory.
 

DouLou

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Nato should accept Ukraine within its family. Since its a defensive alliance its army would not move into the annexed territory however it would stop any Russian army that tries to trespass within the current Ukranian land
It won't move into annexed territory it doesn't recognize as Russian? :houllier:

To let Ukraine join NATO and not help it claim back those regions is as good as openly acknowledging they are legally Russian.
 

devilish

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It won't move into annexed territory it doesn't recognize as Russian? :houllier:

To let Ukraine join NATO and not help it claim back those regions is as good as openly acknowledging they are legally Russian.
Nato is a defensive alliance. Ukraine would be joining Nato perfectly aware that 4 of its territories is under Russian control and its up to them to win it back. This compromise would limit Russian operation without Nato actively declaring war on Russia
 

stefan92

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Nato is a defensive alliance. Ukraine would be joining Nato perfectly aware that 4 of its territories is under Russian control and its up to them to win it back. This compromise would limit Russian operation without Nato actively declaring war on Russia
But it's just not true. Lyman for example is lost and part of the four annexed oblasts.
 

DouLou

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Nato is a defensive alliance. Ukraine would be joining Nato perfectly aware that 4 of its territories is under Russian control and its up to them to win it back. This compromise would limit Russian operation without Nato actively declaring war on Russia
This sounds insane to me. A complete insult to Ukraine and a mockery of NATO.

A defensive alliance that wouldn't help claim back it's allies land.
 

VorZakone

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Can we now conclude that Ukraine dictates the initiative and Russia is forced to react?
 

RG77

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This sounds insane to me. A complete insult to Ukraine and a mockery of NATO.

A defensive alliance that wouldn't help claim back it's allies land.
I don’t think they quite understand the way NATO operates, the process and the politics of it all. Ukraine is still years away from joining NATO, even if the war would end today.

Sadly NATO doesn’t operate like Russia, if it did:

Received application on Friday
Review on Monday
Acceptance on Tuesday
Russia kicked out of Ukraine on Thursday

It is a multi-step, long process. And they cannot join while at war. And even if they somehow worked around it, changing protocol etc. Then yeah, Ukraine would simply need to invoke Article 5 and NATO would be forced to act.

This idea of letting them join but not helping with an active war is just absurd.
 

devilish

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But it's just not true. Lyman for example is lost and part of the four annexed oblasts.
This sounds insane to me. A complete insult to Ukraine and a mockery of NATO.

A defensive alliance that wouldn't help claim back it's allies land.
NATO's argument is that its a defensive alliance. That means it can't actively engage into war with someone unless its get attacked first. Since Ukraine is engaged into an active war then it can't join NATO as by doing so would mean dragging NATO into war.

I think that there is a workable walk around that. NATO won't engage into war with Russian troops within the Annexed regions but it would stop any Russian troops from pouring into non annexed regions. If Ukraine is able to to liberate let's say Crimea that such region would be incorporated within the NATO agreement.

Such deal would provide a safe haven to Ukrainians within their territory, it will keep Zaporizhzhia power plant safe and it would allow the Ukrainians to focus solely on the annexed regions as the rest would be protected by NATO. The Kremlin would end up in a situation were they have to be very careful on how to plan their attacks as they risk killing NATO soldiers which in turn would give NATO the casus belli they need to start an open war with Russia. Considering that most Russian soldiers are conscripts and that most of their technology is ancient, then such scenario would severely limit the Russian operations.

Putin is popular in Russia because he has a social contract with his people were they allow him to do whatever he wants as long as he doesn't physically drags them into war. How would they react at the thought of sending their own children to war knowing that they might be the first line in a war against the West?
 
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The Firestarter

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NATO's argument is that its a defensive alliance. That means it can't actively engage into war with someone unless its get attacked first. Since Ukraine is engaged into an active war then it can't join NATO as by doing so would mean dragging NATO into war.

I think that there is a workable walk around that. NATO won't engage into war with Russian troops within the Annexed regions but it would stop any Russian troops from pouring into non annexed regions. If Ukraine is able to to liberate let's say Crimea that such region would be incorporated within the NATO agreement.

Such deal would provide a safe haven to Ukrainians within their territory, it will keep Zaporizhzhia power plant safe and it would allow the Ukrainians to focus solely on the annexed regions as the rest would be protected by NATO. The Kremlin would end up in a situation were they have to be very careful on how to plan their attacks as they risk killing NATO soldiers which in turn would give NATO the casus belli they need to start an open war with Russia Considering that most Russian soldiers are conscripts and that most of their technology is ancient, then such scenario would severely limit the Russian operations.
Absolute gibberish.
 

stefan92

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About the impossibility of joining NATO at war...
 

devilish

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Absolute gibberish.
In my opinion Putin's weakness lie with his people. They allow him to do whatever he wants on the condition that he doesn't send their children to war. In fact he's already struggling in selling this 'partial mobilization' against an enemy most Russian people consider as weaker then them. In this scenario the table could shift at any moment. Russian parents would end up sending their kids to war not knowing if they would end up the first line of defence against the Western juggernaut. How would they react to that? We're not talking about WW2 here were the Russians were defending their own country against the biggest bastard in European history. Russia is the aggressor this time round and it can avoid this massacre by just pulling out of the war.