Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

B20

HEY EVERYONE I IGNORE SOMEONE LOOK AT ME
Joined
Aug 23, 2003
Messages
27,613
Location
Disney Land
Supports
Liverpool
Here's another potential end game:

Ukraine effectively win the war. But since putin can't back down, he continues shelling and border skirmishing indefinitely out of pettiness.
Ukraine then joins nato in this climate. This gives putin his out, saying he had to end the conflict to save the planet from nuclear war.
 

Beans

Full Member
Joined
Aug 9, 2019
Messages
3,519
Location
Midwest, USA
Supports
Neutral
Here's another potential end game:

Ukraine effectively win the war. But since putin can't back down, he continues shelling and border skirmishing indefinitely out of pettiness.
Ukraine then joins nato in this climate. This gives putin his out, saying he had to end the conflict to save the planet from nuclear war.
If Russia is pushed back to their border i definitely think Putin will keep going. If only to kill all the able bodied men in the provinces so they can't rebel after the army is destroyed.
 

Revan

Assumptionman
Joined
Dec 19, 2011
Messages
49,875
Location
London
Nope. Nobody will remember or care and the world will spin on. I'm Indian and against our stance on this but I doubt it will make any difference.
Am I right in assuming that India abstaining/supporting Russia has to do with Soviet Union subs blocking the US fleet during the India-Pakistan conflict many decades ago?
 

Traub

Full Member
Joined
Jun 26, 2009
Messages
10,244
Am I right in assuming that India abstaining/supporting Russia has to do with Soviet Union subs blocking the US fleet during the India-Pakistan conflict many decades ago?
More likely due to BRICS.
 

stefan92

Full Member
Joined
Feb 9, 2021
Messages
6,722
Supports
Hannover 96
Am I right in assuming that India abstaining/supporting Russia has to do with Soviet Union subs blocking the US fleet during the India-Pakistan conflict many decades ago?
India has to be careful about such annexation stuff because they would like to take Kashmir themselves under full control. They don't want to tie their hands by condemning actions they maybe want to take themselves.
 

Bepi

Full Member
Joined
Sep 10, 2016
Messages
3,875
Location
Italy
Supports
Juventus
Point is, what happens when reality really kicks in? After the sham annexation of entire territories they do not even occupy, let alone control or govern, what is left to Mad Vlad? Even idiots like Lukashenko and Kadyrov can see through the smoke, particularly because they would be wiped out as well if Putin is toppled.
 

VorZakone

What would Kenny G do?
Joined
May 9, 2013
Messages
33,136
Point is, what happens when reality really kicks in? After the sham annexation of entire territories they do not even occupy, let alone control or govern, what is left to Mad Vlad? Even idiots like Lukashenko and Kadyrov can see through the smoke, particularly because they would be wiped out as well if Putin is toppled.
My guess is that Putin will look for ways to freeze or drag out the conflict. But obviously Ukraine is not going to stop.

 

VorZakone

What would Kenny G do?
Joined
May 9, 2013
Messages
33,136
Maybe this is some Ukrainian psyop or whatever but for those interested, this is what Ukrainian head of defence intelligence said on 30 September.

The war between Ukraine and Russia will not last long and its active phase will end soon, Chief of Defense Intelligence of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Kyrylo Budanov believes.

“This whole war won’t last that long. It will end soon,” Budanov said in an interview broadcast on the national telethon on Friday, Sep.30.

At the same time, answering the clarifying question of the presenter about whether it will last “two or three weeks”, he said that we are talking about a longer period.

“At the end of May, I told what the algorithm of military operations would be. Then I said bluntly that June would not be good for us, we would lose. In July there will be a conditional stagnation, and in August we will begin to gradually move towards the restoration of the territory, which it will be clear to everyone. In winter, the war will largely subside, but after the winter, the end of this conflict will begin. At the first stage, reaching the administrative borders as of 1991,” Budanov said.

He also added that, probably, the Ukrainian army will enter the territory of the Crimean peninsula by the end of spring 2023. “Perhaps a little earlier. You can make a mistake in the days, but not in the algorithm,” he said.
https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-po...ef-budanov-on-likely-duration-of-the-war.html
 

Rajma

Full Member
Joined
Sep 8, 2012
Messages
8,581
Location
Lithuania
10 NATO members have already expressed their wish for Ukraine to join the block:
1. Czech Republic
2. Estonia
3. Latvia
4. Lithuania
5. North Macedonia
6. Montenegro
7. Poland
8. Romania
9. Slovakia
10. Canada
 

stefan92

Full Member
Joined
Feb 9, 2021
Messages
6,722
Supports
Hannover 96
He is a despicable idiot usually talking bullshit about Covid, but nonetheless remarkable rethoric from the German Health Minister (member of Scholz' party, which makes this even more astonishing):

"Honestly: Why kneel in front of Putin? We are at war with Putin and not his psychotherapists. Victory has to be consequently pursued meaning the liberation of Ukraine. It doesn't matter if Putin's mind can deal with it"

So far no other German government official has said that we are at war.
 

Bepi

Full Member
Joined
Sep 10, 2016
Messages
3,875
Location
Italy
Supports
Juventus
Point is, what happens when reality really kicks in? After the sham annexation of entire territories they do not even occupy, let alone control or govern, what is left to Mad Vlad? Even idiots like Lukashenko and Kadyrov can see through the smoke, particularly because they would be wiped out as well if Putin is toppled.
 

stefan92

Full Member
Joined
Feb 9, 2021
Messages
6,722
Supports
Hannover 96
From "we're going to crush them in 3 days" to "the might attack us". Speaks volumes about how the russian army was ridiculed.
And it keeps going. Reportedly AFU is currently attacking east of Kupyansk, according to Russian sources about 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers take part and currently fire massive amounts of artillery at the Russian positions. Doesn't look good for the Russian army there.
 

dove

New Member
Joined
May 15, 2013
Messages
7,899
And it keeps going. Reportedly AFU is currently attacking east of Kupyansk, according to Russian sources about 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers take part and currently fire massive amounts of artillery at the Russian positions. Doesn't look good for the Russian army there.
Moving quickly towards Kreminna too, east of Lyman.

 

stefan92

Full Member
Joined
Feb 9, 2021
Messages
6,722
Supports
Hannover 96
Moving quickly towards Kreminna too, east of Lyman.

Which is about 80km south of Kupyansk, so essentially the full front in Northern Ukraine is moving.
 

stefan92

Full Member
Joined
Feb 9, 2021
Messages
6,722
Supports
Hannover 96
There are stories of advances in Kherson too - anyone know anything about this?
There are always stories about that, Ukraine takes back about half a village a day and that's it. Russia moved a lot of good troops to that region (which are now missing in the region where Ukraine really is successful), so they can't do much, but they keep going and keep the Russians busy.
 

Frosty

Logical and sensible but turns women gay
Joined
Jan 11, 2007
Messages
17,314
Location
Yes I can hear you Clem Fandango!
There are always stories about that, Ukraine takes back about half a village a day and that's it. Russia moved a lot of good troops to that region (which are now missing in the region where Ukraine really is successful), so they can't do much, but they keep going and keep the Russians busy.
Cheers.
 

neverdie

Full Member
Joined
Oct 26, 2018
Messages
2,409
any wideview maps? to see where ukraine is now compared with last month? even a projection would be interesting as they've made a lot of progress going by the succession of towns and oblasts.

found this.


don't know how accurate it is but suggests ukraine has focused on the north.
 
Last edited:

The United

Full Member
Joined
Sep 14, 2015
Messages
5,805
any wideview maps? to see where ukraine is now compared with last month? even a projection would be interesting as they've made a lot of progress going by the succession of towns and oblasts.

found this.


don't know how accurate it is but suggests ukraine has focused on the north.
I mean it is sensible thing to do as most Russian supplies would come from the north (and east) and Russian moved their best troops to the south where Ukraine can contain them easily once the supplies cut off.
 

dove

New Member
Joined
May 15, 2013
Messages
7,899
don't know how accurate it is but suggests ukraine has focused on the north.
I wouldn't say they focused on the north, it's just that it is easier there with less Russian troops since they moved a lot of them to Kherson region. Ukraine keeps trying to breakthrough in the south as well but it's a much slower progress here with some failures. They are still making progress but it's much more costly and contested.

 

neverdie

Full Member
Joined
Oct 26, 2018
Messages
2,409
I wouldn't say they focused on the north, it's just that it is easier there with less Russian troops since they moved a lot of them to Kherson region. Ukraine keeps trying to breakthrough in the south as well but it's a much slower progress here with some failures. They are still making progress but it's much more costly and contested.

that makes sense. seems they're attacking all across the line but just broke through easier in the north. the scale of this war is something else. sometimes forget just how enormous ukraine is.
 

RedRover

Full Member
Joined
Mar 19, 2007
Messages
8,974
When will people grasp this, he is far far closer to Stalin than Yeltsin. Oligarchs that dared to utter some critique found themselves tripping over high rise windows soon after. Putin has complete control over the security (repressive) apparatus, one call and people just die of negligence or natural causes, while everyone looks the other way.
Every dictator that has ended up dead in a ditch or fleeing for his life did at some point.
 

NM

Full Member
Joined
May 8, 2011
Messages
12,352
Am I right in assuming that India abstaining/supporting Russia has to do with Soviet Union subs blocking the US fleet during the India-Pakistan conflict many decades ago?
That + geopolitics in general + historic ties (economically and socially).

Historically, it's always been Pakistan and the US and India and Russia.

Realistically, we (India) have enemies all around us with Pakistan and China and can't afford to piss off Russia as it's been a historic ally.

Still a shit position to be in and I'd hope the government would show guts but most Indian governments and especially this one have no balls.
 

Rajma

Full Member
Joined
Sep 8, 2012
Messages
8,581
Location
Lithuania
The good thing about russian lend-lease is that they deliver the stuff right to the frontlines, logistically very convenient.
 

TMDaines

Fun sponge.
Joined
Sep 1, 2014
Messages
14,016
I guess it shows that there is no equivalent to the BILD in the UK, as you couldn’t imagine any of our tabloids having a man on the ground close behind the advance like this.

 

Rajma

Full Member
Joined
Sep 8, 2012
Messages
8,581
Location
Lithuania
Some russian tg channel claims that situation is very very difficult for them in the direction of Bersilav, Kherson region.
To give a feeling where it’s on the map:
This can only mean (if confirmed) a total collapse of Russian defense lines north of Kherson. Although it is very doubtful at this stage that such progress could have been possible this quickly.
 

Beans

Full Member
Joined
Aug 9, 2019
Messages
3,519
Location
Midwest, USA
Supports
Neutral
The good thing about russian lend-lease is that they deliver the stuff right to the frontlines, logistically very convenient.
They are also very generously not requiring payment, so kind!