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Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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I wonder how often this tended to happen in let's say WWII . Seems pretty extreme.
That last tweet is a bit too optimistic IMO (or lost in translation somewhere) but it definitely seems like it's not a very good day for Russia with tons of reports of Kherson front collapsing from that direction.
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The reports usually lag the events. I think the Ukrainians have gained massive amount of ground in the south already based on many reports. If the Russians will counterattack and the Ukrainians can hold what they gained for the next few hours would be interesting.
Or the whole Russians line will collapse within a few days which is the usual thing with their northern front lines.
Several times these weeks I had to pause and just think about the big picture and how absolutely ridiculous it would have been about 7 months ago to suggest that Ukraime would be capable of executing not one but two large scale geographically separated maneuvering offensives , simultaneously, and that against the Russian army which was build for the sole purpose of ground warfare. These last 5 years have felt like decades in terms of global events.
Agreed. And if there is one positive thing about a Tory PM in crisis, it is that plenty of money and military hardware should soon be heading to Kyiv.
Trident
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That's just reminded me that Truss will have written the letters of last resort. I cannot imagine that they are coherent in any way.Trident
That mixed metaphor sounds rather painful...
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Bruh, on social media, really?
Ah shoot too bad Putin doesn't use smartphones.
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For real though the mighty Russian airforce had even more abysmal showing than the ground forces, and something that can't be excused by lack of experience or shortage of numbers.
Their only hope is to embarrass the leadership publicly to force them to do something.Bruh, on social media, really?
Does make you wonder if NATO/the west might send a few weapons their way when this one is all said and done.
I know the Georgians expected them to in 2008 and paid the price.
I was 100% buying into the narrative that the Russian army was actually very strong. Now it's clear that it was a very, very small slice of competence.
Good interview with Khodorkovsky. Mentions that Putin knows failure to win in Ukraine would result in his own death, which is why some degree of tactical nukes may be on the table in the coming months.
What's he waiting for, then?
If he was actually training these conscripts I'd say he's waiting till they're trained, but it seems he's just throwing them into the fight. Or maybe some are training and some are fodder?
If he was actually training these conscripts I'd say he's waiting till they're trained, but it seems he's just throwing them into the fight. Or maybe some are training and some are fodder?
Using nukes would almost certainly trigger NATO getting involved and cause Putin to lose any trace of support from the likes of China and others. It could basically expedite his own demise. He’s basically fecked.
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Sounding more and more like Putin is cooked.
Putin the oven
How do you like your chicken Kyiv?
Nuked?
(I think this is an American expression for well cooked, otherwise it doesn’t make much sense)
Microwaved, I thought?Nuked?
(I think this is an American expression for well cooked, otherwise it doesn’t make much sense)
Looks like yesterday's reports of Russians retreating all the way to Dudchany and then the fighting going in that area were correct. It would mean Ukraine advanced around 30km by the riverside in a few days or so, the first major breakthrough in Kherson region.
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We all laughed at him for being a fantasist when he said Ukraine will defeat Russia back in February.
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How does that change or affect what happens internally in Russia?
Putin is a 70 year old man. Even without the mess he's created, at some stage there has to be a transition of power. Either he will try to find a successor, or he'll be deposed. This isn't like the Soviet Union with a political mechanism in place to replace him.
He continues to march Russia towards economic and political isolation and even if he doesn't care, plenty of those around him will because this is the future they'll have to live. These are not ideologues, they're just gangsters and kleptocrats who look out for number one. Whilst he may well rule by fear now, that isn't guaranteed forever and when it starts to fall apart, and he loses his grip people will act in their own self-interest, not his. There's a simple solution coming for all those around Putin to have a brighter future.
Surprised the Russians have not drawn up a defensive line. Are they allowing the UKR forces to go deeper and therefore stretch their lines thin before counter-attacking?
I agree it seems Ukraine is taking land back very quickly which does make you think it could be a trap to thin their lines and counter attack
but flip side, the German collapse in wwii also went fairly quickly and it’s hard to draw a defensive line when so much of Your army is retreating without much order
Ukraine aren’t giving them time to establish a foothold for a counter attack. Speed is a tactic for Ukraine, not for Russia
Yeah if you're retreating without your equipment you're not likely to be planning a counter attack.
The cases you mentioned were externally triggered. So far I see the chance of F-35s bombing Moscow still as slim. Also, they had an already established resistance/ opposition that could be helped. No such entity exists in Russia. It may develop , but it will take a lot of time.
The concern over use of nuclear weapons is based on the idea that Putin is a madman who will ultimately be willing to risk it all and take the world down in flames if he has to. He might be, because if he loses this war, he's finished anyway. That risk doesn't apply to the people around him and it shows that he's not as all powerful as he might be assumed to be.
The narrative shifted last week with Zelensky and others making the point that Putin, not Russia, is the problem. It's targeted at people around him and the general population. There has been numerous articles the last few weeks about how mobilization has broken the social contract with the Russian people who willingly kept out of politics in return for an easy life. He's now asking them to go to war. Russia is a massive country, and there's a risk that as the war drags on and less young men come home public opinion will turn.
My opinion, there doesn't necessarily need to be an organised "resistance" because the elite are all self-serving and will ultimately do what they need to do to survive and remain rich and powerful. There will always be people moving in the shadows looking to take the throne and if they find backing of powerful people in high office, then just as with Putin, they could rise.
He is obviously a survivor, and maybe he does see this out and live to a grand old age, but he won't do so by continuing on this track.
Reposting since CPAC deleted this tweet despite being up for 12 hours...
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I'd obviously hope for the same outcome however all that I have read and also what Russians acquaintances have shared, is that it's not very realistic to expect a palace coup because he has spent decades shielding himself from such a possibility.