Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

B. Munich said:
Yeah you are right. However I'm correct about the assistance of France, Italy and Spain. They just a fraction of the money Germany is providing.
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I don't think it's quite so clear cut. Here's the appropriate tracker (I'm only assuming it's accurate though). Basically the UK fares well in some comparisons because all of its aid is bilateral. Germany provides a lot of bilateral aid but also feeds substantial amounts through the EU. France, Italy and Spain provide most of their aid through EU institutions. Overall Germany looks to be by far the biggest European donor in dollar terms, but France and UK spend a similar amount as do Italy and Spain . As a percentage of GDP it's slightly different, but Germany still comes first of any of the five biggest European countries.

I think the composition of aid differs too. UK provides more equipment, France etc more finance. Could be wrong though.
 
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Real Name said:
So whats the situation on the front like?
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Status Quo really. The retreat from Ardiivka moved Ukraine back to lines fortified since 2014, no expectation of Russia progressing further there.

VorZakone said:
This is fantasy. Poland is not going to intervene.
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No, but hypothetically... What if NATO wasn't a consideration and Russia was at the gates of Lviv?
 
B. Munich said:
Are you sure?

First why haven't the 600+ billions USD in frozen Russian assets not yet used to support the Ukraine?
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Because its considered the final option in the absence of money from NATO countries drying up. That isn't of course the case since the US are still negotiating a massive package for Ukraine right now, which would be separate from the frozen assets.

B. Munich said:
Second the Russian economy transitioned to a war economy and is doing actually much better than most European country parts.
Thus, I rather believe Russia can keep this war going for a longtime. Putin's cronies will even become richer and his power is cemented.

The problems will actually star when the war is over and the war economy has to transition again. Then the sanctions will hit and the loss in human resources will show.

Just my thoughts.
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I'm sure they can keep going for a few more years, just as the Ukrainians can with this year's financial package and the 300b of Russian assets, which is why I don't think this will end anytime soon.
 
Simbo said:
Status Quo really. The retreat from Ardiivka moved Ukraine back to lines fortified since 2014, no expectation of Russia progressing further there.



No, but hypothetically... What if NATO wasn't a consideration and Russia was at the gates of Lviv?
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Poland would obviously reinforce the border and perhaps support a Ukrainian insurgency. But they wouldn't join the war as long as Russia doesn't attack Poland.
 
VorZakone said:
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We should just give Ukraine these goddamn Taurus missiles and then wait for Macron to finally stop talking and start doing something. As annoyingly insufficient I find our support, France is even worse.
 
Raoul said:
Because its considered the final option in the absence of money from NATO countries drying up. That isn't of course the case since the US are still negotiating a massive package for Ukraine right now, which would be separate from the frozen assets.



I'm sure they can keep going for a few more years, just as the Ukrainians can with this year's financial package and the 300b of Russian assets, which is why I don't think this will end anytime soon.
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I don't think Ukraine are getting the Russian assets sadly. The principles behind protection of the private capital of the mega rich comes ahead of protecting lives, democracy or human rights for most western governments at the moment it feels.
 
I was just looking at the list of hardware made available for the Ukrainian Air Force, including missiles and so on. Can someone explain to me why helicopters other than the ageing Mi-8s and Mi-17s have not been on the table yet? The truth is that the Ukrainians will eventually need a lot more helicopters (transport, gunships, etc.) if they hope to perform proper air assaults at some point insted of relying this heavily on ground assaults.
 
TwoSheds said:
I don't think Ukraine are getting the Russian assets sadly. The principles behind protection of the private capital of the mega rich comes ahead of protecting lives, democracy or human rights for most western governments at the moment it feels.
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Under ordinary circumstances I would agree with you, but in extraordinary circumstances that might result in a war in Europe, where Europe controls Russian assets, every option is realistically on the table.

Macron has just only today discussed the option of sending French troops into Ukraine.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...roops-ukraine-cannot-be-ruled-out-2024-02-26/
 
africanspur said:
In fairness I think part of the difference in rhetoric probably arises from where people are.

To someone living in the UK, France or Germany, the idea of our way of life changing because of Russia is generally incomprehensible. Russia are not going to attack those countries. Multiply this by 1000 for Americans.

To those in the Baltics or Finland etc, I can see how that outlook may be very different. Those countries have within living memory been under the rule of Russians or been attacked by them. Finland excepted, they're tiny countries.

Sure, they're in NATO but if someone like Trump is in charge....or if America takes a more isolationist stance in general again, are they going to do anything?

I don't think their fear or some of their rhetoric is misplaced to be honest, even if I don't personally agree with all of it.
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You're going by the underlying assumption that Ukraine is only the first step and Putin intends to swallow the Baltic States next which I don't buy in the first place.

I find the "Putin=Hitler", "OMG, remember the thirties" takes absolutely hilarious. He's a thug and an authocrat, but he's not an idiot.

And if the day ever comes where NATO abandons one of its members, then the world will have truly gone to shit.
 
I think the citizens of ally countries at least deserves to know to what extent we are planning support for Ukraine, we are either in it seriously or it stops, no Ukrainian deserves to die for unachievable goals. Most of all i think Ukrainians deserve to know, specially the soldiers out there risking their lives.
 
That_Bloke said:
You're going by the underlying assumption that Ukraine is only the first step and Putin intends to swallow the Baltic States next which I don't buy in the first place.

I find the "Putin=Hitler", "OMG, remember the thirties" takes absolutely hilarious. He's a thug and an authocrat, but he's not an idiot.

And if the day ever comes where NATO abandons one of its members, then the world will have truly gone to shit.
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Why not?
He's made multiple statements in the past about the aim of restoring the old USSR, and as for NATO, that day maybe less than a year away
 
Redplane said:
You're both wrong in a way. He wants to restore the Russian Empire. Which is arguably far worse. In defense of @Red in STL tho- the USSR comparison has been thrown out because it more recent memory for most and partway gets you there when it comes to land acquisition.
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The point was about statements and Putin never uttered what RedinSTL stated.

Restoring the Russian Empire is even an more ridiculous take.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
I was just looking at the list of hardware made available for the Ukrainian Air Force, including missiles and so on. Can someone explain to me why helicopters other than the ageing Mi-8s and Mi-17s have not been on the table yet? The truth is that the Ukrainians will eventually need a lot more helicopters (transport, gunships, etc.) if they hope to perform proper air assaults at some point insted of relying this heavily on ground assaults.
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Because what they are delivering in Ukraine is strongly oriented on FIFO. Get read of the old stuff that is outdated so the military industry can sell the new toys. Donate the old Leopards so europeans buy the new ones. F16s as well, helicopters etc..

Sure they are giving them top of the line in other items but is basically this stock renewable

Bleeding out Ukraine works perfect for the US. For Europe...I am not that sure. Time will tell, but if europe plays cheap might end paying the price dearly
 
4bars said:
Because what they are delivering in Ukraine is strongly oriented on FIFO. Get read of the old stuff that is outdated so the military industry can sell the new toys. Donate the old Leopards so europeans buy the new ones. F16s as well, helicopters etc..

Sure they are giving them top of the line in other items but is basically this stock renewable

Bleeding out Ukraine works perfect for the US. For Europe...I am not that sure. Time will tell, but if europe plays cheap might end paying the price dearly
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Even so, I'm sure there are plenty of good helicopters that can be made available by the US and/or their allies. Sending a good number of Hueys and early-type Black Hawks is something that can be done quite easily.

In any case, it's not normal that Ukraine only has 40 helicopters - 15 MI-8s and 25 Mi-17s (some donated by Croatia and the US) after all of that military aid. We don't even know how many of them are still operational.
 
That_Bloke said:
The point was about statements and Putin never uttered what RedinSTL stated.
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Restoring the Russian Empire is even an more ridiculous take.
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Semantics, so he said Russian Empire rather than USSR, it doesn't really matter what he said or wants, it's what he's prepared to do, and if Trump is President then there is a realistic chance the Baltic States are fecked IMO
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
Even so, I'm sure there are plenty of good helicopters that can be made available by the US and/or their allies. Sending a good number of Hueys and early-type Black Hawks is something that can be done quite easily.

In any case, it's not normal that Ukraine only has 40 helicopters - 15 MI-8s and 25 Mi-17s (some donated by Croatia and the US) after all of that military aid. We don't even know how many of them are still operational.
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I agree. IMO if the west would like to win this war, it could do much more, but i am afraid that they had been taking it as an opportunity to bleed out russia at the expense of ukraine becoming just a pawn for geopolitics
 
That_Bloke said:
You're going by the underlying assumption that Ukraine is only the first step and Putin intends to swallow the Baltic States next which I don't buy in the first place.
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Okay, out of curiosity. Why do you think that Putin attacked Ukraine in the first place, if it has nothing to do with classic imperialistic approach?
 
Red in STL said:
Semantics, so he said Russian Empire rather than USSR, it doesn't really matter what he said or wants, it's what he's prepared to do, and if Trump is President then there is a realistic chance the Baltic States are fecked IMO
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He did not.

Let's imagine that Putin indeed is Palpatine, decides to use his dark powers to conquer the whole Ukraine, and he'll need those, because his army proved that it surely can't. Then occupy it, with the Ukrainian population and the West being totally okay with it. Otherwise there's no way Russia will be able to keep it.

You think that NATO will let of its three of its members go down, just like that? Or that the US, even under the orange madman, will leave NATO?

In what world are you people living in?
 
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Lemoor said:
Okay, out of curiosity. Why do you think that Putin attacked Ukraine in the first place, if it has nothing to do with classic imperialistic approach?
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Prevent Ukraine from entering NATO, put in place a regime more favorable to Russia there and grab land in the East and South-East. Odessa would be nice too.
 
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That_Bloke said:
Let's imagine that Putin indeed is Palpatine, decides to use his dark powers to conquer the whole Ukraine, and he'll need those, because his army proved that it surely can't. Then occupy it, with the Ukrainian population being totally okay with it. Otherwise there's no way Russia will be able to keep it.

You think that NATO will let of its three of its members go down, just like that? Or that the US, even under the orange madman, will leave NATO?

In what world are you people living in?
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Haven't you listened to the Orange madman? When he was President he questioned whether he would respond if a NATO country was attacked. and he's just indicated that he couldn't care less what Putin does, especially in countries who haven't 'paid the bills'

NATO without the US would be hard pressed to stop Russia if they rolled in to the Baltic's
 
That_Bloke said:
Prevent Ukraine from entering NATO, put in place a regime more favorable to Russia there and grab land in the East and South-East.
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And why did he opt for a full invasion now instead of anytime during the last 10 years? Ukraine wasn't any closer to joining NATO in 2022 than they were in 2012.
 
That_Bloke said:
Huh?
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Why would he invade Ukraine to prevent it from entering NATO if Ukraine had zero realistic prospects of even long-term membership before the invasion? Ironically, his 2022 invasion has been the biggest boost to NATO opinion in both Ukraine and the West probably since USSR collapse.

Also, if this is about friendly regime and NATO, why did he torpedo 2013 trade deal with EU?
 
Red in STL said:
Haven't you listened to the Orange madman? When he was President he questioned whether he would respond if a NATO country was attacked. and he's just indicated that he couldn't care less what Putin does, especially in countries who haven't 'paid the bills'

NATO without the US would be hard pressed to stop Russia if they rolled in to the Baltic's
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He can rant all he wants in front of his braindead cultists and they can lap it up until they throw up. When things get real, his camp won't let him do it, because it is suicide.

Strategically the US would should itself a nuke in the foot. It would lose access to a multitude of military bases across the world and an enormous part of its deterrence power. The NATO members will stop looking for the US for their rearmament, buying local and the military contracts would most likely dry up. The whole world order would be completely reconfigurated and the US one of the biggest losers.

Russia won't roll in there.

Lemoor said:
Why would he invade Ukraine to prevent it from entering NATO if Ukraine had zero realistic prospects of even long-term membership before the invasion? Ironically, his 2022 invasion has been the biggest boost to NATO opinion in both Ukraine and the West probably since USSR collapse.
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Mate, you might want to actualize your database.
 
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B. Munich said:
In a world where Americans might reelect Trump. Nothing will be sure, if this happens.
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Nah, dont worry. He knows that his camp is going to be fully rational and everyone should not even bother considering any alternative.

That_Bloke said:
You're most welcome.

I'd suggest to start with Wikipedia articles about Russia, Ukraine and NATO. From there on, you can build up.
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So you know about Wikipedia's existence and you are still posting this stupid shite?
 
Lemoor said:
Nah, dont worry. He knows that his camp is going to be fully rational and everyone should not even bother considering any alternative.


So you know about Wikipedia's existence and you are still posting this stupid shite?
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Absolutely. What about you?
 
That_Bloke said:
He has to be re-elected first, and even then I'm not buying it.
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Just look at the chaos and mayhem he already caused when only talking to his supporters.
NATO is all about trust and Trump already put huge question marks behind America's commitment to article 5 without being even in the White House yet.
 
Lemoor said:
Nah, dont worry. He knows that his camp is going to be fully rational and everyone should not even bother considering any alternative
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I haven't been to the US for 30 years. So I just might be wrong bit when watching Trump events and his speeches. But they don't look like political events rather like the parade after winning the league or a rockstar appearance. Many of his supporters look as fanatic as Germans back in the 30s adoring Hitler. It's so weird and scary at the same time.
 
B. Munich said:
Just look at the chaos and mayhem he already caused when only talking to his supporters.
NATO is all about trust and Trump already put huge question marks behind America's commitment to article 5 without being even in the White House yet.
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That's just that, talk. How many of his electoral "promises" did he break when in office?

His and his camp's eyes are turned inwards and they will most likely ditch Ukraine by forcing them to negociate a cease-fire, even if unfavourable. Of that I'm convinced, but there's a giant leap between pulling out of Ukraine and pulling out of NATO.
 
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That_Bloke said:
His and his camp's eyes are turned inwards and they will most likely ditch Ukraine by forcing them to negociate a cease-fire, even if unfavourable. Of that I'm convinced, but there's a giant leap between pulling out of Ukraine and pulling out of NATO.
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The first point already is an invitation to every dictator to start a war and grab lands. China and Taiwan next and the West just bows down again?
We aren't in 1924, such imperialist politics are absolutely unacceptable in 2024.

He can't pull out of NATO but it's in his power to ignore Article 5, if Putin attacks a NATO country.
Already his idiotic talks about not honoring the US commitments caused unrepairable damage to the alliance and are an invitation for Putin to become even more bold in his actions.

This is like the security company which installed the alarm system in your house going public and saying they aren't sure, if r system is going to work at a break in.
Trump is a fecking moron and train wreck.
 
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