Russian invasion of Ukraine
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
Not likely given that Ukraine actually does want Crimea back. Therefore the only negotiated settlement could happen once Putin is gone, since losing Crimea would almost certainly end his dictatorship and probably his life.
I'm sure Ukraine wants Crimea back but I'd be surprised if they actually went for it with military force.
Many can't imagine it because they think Putin would resort to nukes to keep it. But imagine a scenario where the Ukrainians beat the Russians back to pre-2022 lines, where the Russians lack the hardware to continue defending existing territory, all the while they are crumbling economically and socially from within. At that point, would Zelenskyy stop his momentum to negotiate a ceasefire (thereby permanently giving away Crimea) or would he continue into Crimea (which is still Internationally recognized as Ukrainian). There wouldn't be a chance he would give up Crimea if he knew he had the Russians on the backfoot.
I don't think legalizing the loss of Crimea is even a viable option for Ukraine right now, since it would mean both a very diminished capability for commerce (with Odessa as their only port of relevance) AND a serial agreement breaker like Putin still in power.
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This is why many of these experts on Twitter need to be taken with a massive pinch of salt. The only way this ends is with an out and out Russian victory, an out and out Ukrainian victory, or through the use of a tactical nuke by the Russians. There won't be any negotiated settlements because the only outcome the Ukrainians will accept is all their land back and the only outcome Putin will accept is the acquisition of further Ukrainian territory.
A direct attack seems unlikely, I agree. But laying siege to Crimea would be possible if Ukraine can retake Mariupol (or another corridor to the sea) and also finally take out the bridge. At that point Crimea could only be supplied by aircrafts and ships, and both can be attacked.
They would simply resupply by air and ship (as you said). A siege would also risk turning off the Crimean population against the Ukrainian side if they felt Kyiv was a source of their hardship. The only way to get Crimea back is to cut off Russian supply by ground then literally attack Crimea by road, air, and sea. Each will be critical since the land attack route will be insanely fortified by the Russians.
I understand that the water supply for Crimea goes through a canal starting from Khakovka in Kherson oblast. Getting there, cutting the supply, laying siege and doing some strategic bombing (for example in Kerch bridge) is not that unthinkable, altough a major offensive in the oblast would be needed.
How come? I tend to believe it would be easier than the Donbas.
Yes they would need to attack at some point. But what I meant is that they don't need to frontally attack Crimea, they could and should prepare that first (if they can at all).
As many times I said here, No one knows the equipment that Russia has left and will have, no one knows what equipment Ukraine has left and will have. No one knows how much casualties Russia have and no one knows how many casualties have
But what we all should know that anything that you believe about Russia is not as bad as you think. And anything that you believe about Ukraine is not as good as you think
Because this is a propaganda battle also and any information that you have about them, is taken from social media based on 3rd and 4th hand information and wishful thinking and anyone minimally involved that might say anything, will not say the real information (even what they might have is not always correct) and even lie for strategically and/or political reasons
So many assumptions had been made about Russia running out of equipment in the second month of war. That Ukraine was finished at the beginning of summer. That winter would be favorable for Ukraine and they would go on the offensive as soon as the terrain would be hardened, that russia would send untrained units right away
Spring will paint the real picture. Hopefully Ukraine received as much equipment and training to hold and recover terrain
But what we all should know that anything that you believe about Russia is not as bad as you think. And anything that you believe about Ukraine is not as good as you think
Because this is a propaganda battle also and any information that you have about them, is taken from social media based on 3rd and 4th hand information and wishful thinking and anyone minimally involved that might say anything, will not say the real information (even what they might have is not always correct) and even lie for strategically and/or political reasons
So many assumptions had been made about Russia running out of equipment in the second month of war. That Ukraine was finished at the beginning of summer. That winter would be favorable for Ukraine and they would go on the offensive as soon as the terrain would be hardened, that russia would send untrained units right away
Spring will paint the real picture. Hopefully Ukraine received as much equipment and training to hold and recover terrain
Some pretty intense footage, to say the least. The poor guy and his fecking foot, I couldn't help but chuckle.
You don't need to regularly remind us that no one knows anything. It is kind of baked in to the general consciousness at this point.
And besides: you don't know that.
Useful idiot.
Show me where I said Bahkmut was falling for months. In fact, I said UA should be defending as much as they could, as people thought it was not that important, which I disagreed with. But now, it got to the point that the UA might be wasting their own combat capacity due to RA's overwhelming frontal assaults, and the UA are hardly equipped to withstand that for any longer there where the operational encirclement is very possible soon.
The RA forces are performing as well as they can and are likely to gain territory more than the UA at this point. The NATO weaponry has been there but not enough, and it takes time to train UA soldiers to be effective at using them. So it is a fact that UA troops are hardly more trained and equipped than RA troops at this moment. All you can hope for is that the UA will hold the line while losing minimal territory, allowing the RA to lose steam and counter. Also, a country like Russia can and did increase its military industry right away despite all the limitations, whereas the "West" has to convince some of its population even to aid the UA, let alone start producing some of the critical ammunition to keep the supply going for a mid- to long-term war.
Or you hope the UA has some secret plan that will surprise all of us again.
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I have no doubt about that. I just hope the UA don't lose steam themselves soon.
My number point was simple. The RA is losing a lot of men, but not as many as people are making out, assuming the UA is not losing much. Both assumptions may not be true. All we do is watch clips of how RA got blown up while losing territory little by little and think something is going to turn around.
Two mentions of Bahkmut. The first is one and a half week ago, saying that the situation is difficult, while the second is a reply to your comment here:
Edit: Nevermind, wrong spelling.
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Over 5MEUR now collected with the space of few days.
Do you know what kind of radar system they are talking about?
We have a similar situation here. Far right parties are pro Russian. They havent said that outright but its obvious from their comments.
Interestingly the German far right is split in this regard. The most important AfD as seen above is pro Russia, while the small "The 3rd Way" has ties to Azov and actively tried to recruit fighters for them.
Thing is, 2, 3 far right parties are really small with small support among people (and based on election). Another right party, Most (Bridge), didnt vote on training of UA soldiers in Croatia, they're all about giving support to Ukraine but not in that way, I think they're just afraid to say they're on Russia side in all this outright. Governing party, HDZ, is center right, similar to CDU in Germany, they're together in EPP, and they're completely in support for Ukraine.
Easy mistake to make (they both made it), but the town is called Bakhmut.
Their first mention of it is in October, for what it's worth.
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https://m.faz.net/aktuell/politik/a...leopard-1-panzern-freigeben-18650618.amp.html
The delivery of Leopard 1 tanks now is in preparation, could be several dozens. However timeline and number is not yet clear as they are in long term storage at two companies and need to be refurbished first to become operational again. And there seems to be a big question mark regarding the ammunition - simply almost no one us still using the 105mm NATO caliber any more. Exception are the M-55 tanks Ukraine already got, but as I understood there is neither big stock nor anyone producing that type currently (this is not the same 105mm the French AMX-10 use, the French have shorter and weaker shells to fit into the smaller and lighter vehicle).
The delivery of Leopard 1 tanks now is in preparation, could be several dozens. However timeline and number is not yet clear as they are in long term storage at two companies and need to be refurbished first to become operational again. And there seems to be a big question mark regarding the ammunition - simply almost no one us still using the 105mm NATO caliber any more. Exception are the M-55 tanks Ukraine already got, but as I understood there is neither big stock nor anyone producing that type currently (this is not the same 105mm the French AMX-10 use, the French have shorter and weaker shells to fit into the smaller and lighter vehicle).
Not sure where he's getting this from, but he tends to be reliable. Russia regrouping for their "Major offensive" no doubt.
Or maybe they are preparing to retreat from all Ukraine?
Be ready for major bombardment of Ukraine on that date.
Usually Russia means surrendering and accepting Russia's conditions when they talk about peace talks. I don't expect anything else this time.
Exactly right. They lie so much and all the time that I don't understand how there's people in the West that believe what comes out of Lavrov's mouth
It’s not specified but I guess it’s being kept confidential on the Israel’s request. However, the suggested price is at around 1mEUR a piece.
Have some faith, they are going to retreat from Ukraine, disarm, pledge a $trillion in reparations, return all captured/kidnapped Ukrainians and surrender senior personnel for war crimes tribunals.
Maybe.
Because the West like anywhere has it's fair share of idiots.
Looks like we are at first talking about 29 units which FFG has already refurbished and could deliver soon - ammunition still being the big problem here.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...e?srnd=premium-europe&leadSource=uverify wall
Interesting talk. Just about launchers and missiles, but not about radars or control units.
If that really is the full scope I can only assume that this means adding the Swedish IRIS-T SL launchers as short range option to the medium range IRIS-T SLM systems, but not creating new air defense units. Which would make a lot of sense because that way the unmodified IRIS-T can be used, of which a lot of stock exists due to it being the default AA missile of the Eurofighter and the more expensive and rare bigger variant would only be used if really necessary.
Interesting talk. Just about launchers and missiles, but not about radars or control units.
If that really is the full scope I can only assume that this means adding the Swedish IRIS-T SL launchers as short range option to the medium range IRIS-T SLM systems, but not creating new air defense units. Which would make a lot of sense because that way the unmodified IRIS-T can be used, of which a lot of stock exists due to it being the default AA missile of the Eurofighter and the more expensive and rare bigger variant would only be used if really necessary.
OK, I may be utterly wrong here, but does anyone else think that the Russians have what they want currently? They have Crimea, plus the "land bridge" from Russia through Ukraine. Is it possible they just dig in, hold what they have and hope the West get bored?
It's been showed below, with posts from October and November. We're well into February and the discussion has moved to neighbour Vuhledar, which also isn't falling.
No, they aren't. If they were performing well the war would probably be over by now. They are also not only failing to gain territory right now, but have been failing to do so for months. In fact, after the first three weeks of the war they only had one net territory gain in already controlled Lugansk (the Popasna/Lyschansk/Severodonetsk area). On the meantime the UA regained the surroundings of Kharkiv, Yzium, Lyman, Kherson and the west bank of the Dnieper river.
No, it isn't, and you would have to bring reliable sources for that to make sense. Ukraine forces are regularly receiving NATO standard training and returning to the battlefront with that expertise (plus weaponry). Russian forces aren't. The key points of your argument of Russian gaining momentum are A) Bahkmut, where the forces are mercenaries that operate on their own or untrained/unequipped prisoners; and B) Numbers, which come from forces recruitment of untrained/unmotivated/undisciplined people who are then trained in the tradition of the Russian army (so very quickly, very poorly, and with corruption disrupting the process) and equipped with whatever is available (WW2 outfits in some reported cases). So no, they aren't about the same.
Now that we're on it, we should talk about your modus operandi of argument building. You're (albeit probably accidently) using one of the trademarks of the deceiver which is to hide the deceiving remark or "alternative fact" in between a group of reasonable, verifiable ones. So then we get statements like "Russian outnumbers Ukraine (truth), Ukraine needs more support (truth), the UA is as poorly equipped and trained as the RA (misleading), the UA is having as many casualties as the RA (deceiving), the war is going to be long (truth), Ukraine's allies must step up if they want to win (truth)". That, plus the constant repetition on those misleading remarks, makes for a very difficult and annoying reading (at least in my case).
On the war, I hope that past behaviour would be a good predictor of future behaviour, that the UA keeps getting the help it needs and keeps conducting secret and succesful operations, that the RA keeps making the mistakes that it had been making not only from the beginning of this invasion but from centuries of wars before, and that the spring will give us more information of what's what as (like most experts predicted) the winter has been mostly a stalemate.