Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[harms]

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Incredible thread!!! They have been creating false flag videos all the way back to the 4th Feb.

I think you've missed the fun part — it's the 4th February of 2021, not 2022 (at least according to the destination folder). Although this may be a human error in naming the folder/file, the timeline makes more sense if it was the February of 2022.

 

[GDaly95]

I just find it hard to believe that Putin would have gone to such extraordinary lengths just to as far as DNR & LNR, or the even smaller territory of the separatist-controlled areas of DNR & LNR.

Unless there are other victories he gets as part of all this I'm not aware of that will have made this worth it. I hope so as obviously the best case scenario is that this is as far as it goes.

 

[harms]

I just find it hard to believe that Putin would have gone to such extraordinary lengths just to as far as DNR & LNR, or the even smaller territory of the separatist-controlled areas of DNR & LNR.

Unless there are other victories he gets as part of all this I'm not aware of that will have made this worth it. I hope so as obviously the best case scenario is that this is as far as it goes.

Yeah, I don't think that anyone expects him to stop there.

 

[WPMUFC]

I think you've missed the fun part — it's the 4th February of 2021, not 2022 (at least according to the destination folder).

OMG!!! you're right, i missed it, thats insane!!!

 

[TMDaines]

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[WPMUFC]

I just find it hard to believe that Putin would have gone to such extraordinary lengths just to as far as DNR & LNR, or the even smaller territory of the separatist-controlled areas of DNR & LNR.

Unless there are other victories he gets as part of all this I'm not aware of that will have made this worth it. I hope so as obviously the best case scenario is that this is as far as it goes.

he's annexed more land without lifting a finger or one Russian troop. This is barely the start of it. There will be a fake video or maybe he just won't care, but it doesn't end here.

 

[Paxi]

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[VorZakone]

I just find it hard to believe that Putin would have gone to such extraordinary lengths just to as far as DNR & LNR, or the even smaller territory of the separatist-controlled areas of DNR & LNR.

Unless there are other victories he gets as part of all this I'm not aware of that will have made this worth it. I hope so as obviously the best case scenario is that this is as far as it goes.

Unless the US intel release strategy put a dent in his plans and he'll take whatever gains he can at this point.

 

[Paxi]

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[Revan]

On one level, definitely, Russia will veto any resolution. However, I listened to the last UNSC prior to this one and there has been a stark shift in the tone of messaging from several countries, including the African countries and China. Ultimately, most folks don't want to live in an uncertain world where might rules everything. There will be consequences and this move is definitely high-risk for Russia, if their ultimate gambit of establishing control of Ukraine fails then they will suffer enormously in terms of prestige and economics.

African countries don’t matter though. China matters a lot, especially if the sanctions towards Russia are very hard. Then Russia needs China’s support.

 

[VorZakone]

Interesting to see former CIA officials give their comment:

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[WPMUFC]

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it's the next step in justifying the invasion. Russian troops are now well within Ukrainian borders without one Russian soldier firing a weapon. He now has more opportunities to create false flags, but this time against actual "peacekeeping" forces. I have no doubt the next wave of videos will be "attacks" on Russian forces. They will let that play out for a while to build home support.

 

[Revan]

I feel like today will be seen as the beginning of the war in a way and soon shit is going to kick off in Bosnia too with Serbia and Vučić and Dodik being Putin's puppets, in a similar way to Russia - Ukraine. So yeah that's where my head is at.

Not sure Vucic has the appetite for that. When EU puts sanctions, they are gonna ask him to sanction Russia. He of course won’t do that. He is gonna be ‘I am not here, I am not here, you are not seeing me’. I don’t think he’s gonna orchestrate something at this stage, otherwise EU membership for Serbia is gonna be over (which should have been the case, anyway).

Dodik is a totally lunatic so I guess all bets are off.

 

[harms]

On one level, definitely, Russia will veto any resolution. However, I listened to the last UNSC prior to this one and there has been a stark shift in the tone of messaging from several countries, including the African countries and China. Ultimately, most folks don't want to live in an uncertain world where might rules everything. There will be consequences and this move is definitely high-risk for Russia, if their ultimate gambit of establishing control of Ukraine fails then they will suffer enormously in terms of prestige and economics.

In what way? Did China stated (or implied) that it's not happy with the situation?

 

[sport2793]

Interesting to see former CIA officials give their comment:

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To be fair, I would imagine that this scenario has been on the minds of the US administration since the beginning of this crisis. Hence the supposed partial incursion faux pas by Biden. Like many analysts have said though, Putin in the long term doesn't gain much by stopping here and is likely to go big anyways, thus rendering the issue moot.

 

[Relevated]

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Why does it sound as if he's downplaying the severity of the situation but Biden and Johnson are doing the opposite

 

[sport2793]

In what way? Did China stated (or implied) that it's not happy with the situation?

China offered no support to Russia at all and said that diplomacy is the only acceptable solution. They definitely don't want to be seen publicly supporting military moves by Russia in Ukraine due to their own foreign policy positions. I'm sure they will still play a role in supporting Russia economically but it's a departure from the fiery speech they gave in support of Russia a couple of weeks back.

 

[UweBein]

It’s not. Any one of those people

Just looked at the transcript

correct he did in fact say NATO

So Ukraine need to get that NATO Application complete and then essentially they will be covered under the protection of all NATO Countries.

No chance they are getting that now.

 

[WPMUFC]

Why does it sound as if he's downplaying the severity of the situation but Biden and Johnson are doing the opposite

downplaying it internally is just smart politically, but as much as the false flags have shown to be a laughing stock, there are probably soliders on the border absolutely bricking it 24/7. The chance of an accident are so incredibly high. Calmness internally and hoping your allies can do the heavy lifting is not such a bad move.

 

[UweBein]

Why does it sound as if he's downplaying the severity of the situation but Biden and Johnson are doing the opposite

I guess he is showing a don't panic attitude. The question is what is the appropriate reaction here?

 

[Hansi Fick]

Am I wrong in thinking that in 2008 Georgia actually initiated the conflict? I haven't researched it much myself but a few sources that I generally trust seemed to believe that version — even though it's counter-intuitive for me not to blame Russia/Putin (technically Medvedev) by default.

Its more complicated than that but my understanding is that they basically "took the bait".

My takeaway from it was that Saakashvili was either coked up to his eyebrows, or had lost his marbles in some non-drug related way, and thought the West would have his back, somehow, in an armed conflict with Russia.

 

[VorZakone]

My takeaway from it was that Saakashvili was either coked up to his eyebrows, or had lost his marbles in some non-drug related way, and thought the West would have his back, somehow, in an armed conflict with Russia.

It should have been telling enough when he was nibbling on his own tie on camera. I think the guy was a mental wreck.

 

[Hansi Fick]

It should have been telling enough when he was nibbling on his own tie on camera. I think the guy was a mental wreck.

Yep.
Of course, if I was head of state of a country facing constant pressure and aggression from Russia I'd probably not be doing too fine either. But Saakashvili looked crazy, and to me it had Tony Montana vibes.

 

[WPMUFC]

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[Drifter]

Why does it sound as if he's downplaying the severity of the situation but Biden and Johnson are doing the opposite

Maybe because Biden is surrounded by war hawks and Boris needs a Churchill moment

 

[FootyGirl88]

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[Stookie]

No chance they are getting that now.

Absolutely, I read that a nation with a border dispute cannot join NATO. One of the reasons Russia has created it.

 

[Paxi]

I guess he is showing a don't panic attitude. The question is what is the appropriate reaction here?

He’s doing better than Saakashvili anyway.

 

[UweBein]

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Never change UEFA, never. Fu** you and your non existing moral compass.

 

[FireballXL5]

Ever wonder why so many Russian oligarch's were happily donating to the Tory party?

 

[TheLiverBird]

instead of just giving the Ukraine loads of military equipment

Why not just stack a huge force on the UKR border NATO side and continue with the sanctions?

 

[Smores]

Absolutely, I read that a nation with a border dispute cannot join NATO. One of the reasons Russia has created it.

He didn't need to invade for that as he could have just continued supporting the rebels, that was enough to prevent NATO membership.

Would a win for Ukriane be ceding that land and accelerating NATO membership you wonder. NATO would have to make exceptions on other factors but still.

It depends what Putin does next though.

 

[Drainy]

Ever wonder why so many Russian oligarch's were happily donating to the Tory party?

Brexiteers are the Russian backed separatives of the UK

 

[harms]

China offered no support to Russia at all and said that diplomacy is the only acceptable solution. They definitely don't want to be seen publicly supporting military moves by Russia in Ukraine due to their own foreign policy positions. I'm sure they will still play a role in supporting Russia economically but it's a departure from the fiery speech they gave in support of Russia a couple of weeks back.

To be fair that speech was a bit surprising on its own, this reaction seems more like usual China behaviour. They don't love taking risks that don't benefit them directly.

 

[Rajma]

Sanctions will only work if they target Kremlin and their relatives directly as they don’t give a shit about rest of the country. Freeze all accounts/assets in EU/US related to every every Russian diplomat/oligarchs and closest relatives , cancel US/EU visas and you will quickly have them by their balls without a single shot fired.

 

[Revan]

Sanctions will only work if they target Kremlin and their relatives directly as they don’t give a shit about rest of the country. Freeze all accounts/assets in EU/US related to every every Russian diplomat/oligarchs and closest relatives , cancel US/EU visas and you will quickly have them by their balls without a single shot fired.

This plus a total embargo should happen.

But then I'll freeze to death here in Germany cause Merkel in her infinite wisdom decided to close all nuclear plants and be totally dependent on Russia for energy.

 

[KingCavani]

Looking really dangerous right now.

I really feel for the Ukrainian people who are going to get caught up in this conflict - They probably feel like pawns in a game - The Russian people too to a lesser extent. Putin's speech yesterday was disgraceful and his narrative about Russian's being betrayed by the Bolshevik's and later the West was reminiscent to Hitler's comments on WW1 and Versailles - Nationalistic posturing at it's worst. Russia and it's population does still feel resentment to how they were treated in the 90's and the Western policy was a massive blunder which guaranteed hostility down the line. It's an easy card to play and one Putin has been using for decades but how he feels that national humiliation justifies the invasion of a sovereign nation I don't know - Whether Ukraine was a "Russian creation" or not the reality is it exists now as it does and it's population want nothing to do with Russia's imperial ambitions.

I'm not really sure what the NATO response can be given how committed Putin seems to be to this. Comparing diplomacy to appeasement of Hitler doesn't really wash because Hitler didn't have a nuclear option. Closing the walls in on Putin militarily is just about the only scenario where the worst could happen. If he had nothing to lose and was facing down a war crimes trial then you'd be reliant on insubordination preventing an apocalyptic scenario. The prospect of escalation is scary. I think the best response as someone else mentioned would be going after the Russian aristocracy and their international assets. Make the people who are influential suffer and have Putin answer to them.

 

[WPMUFC]

The delusion and propaganda has even reach my local Australian online forums.

Someone in a thread posted this

Waiting for anybody to report an invasion. So far all we have is confirmation that the parliaments of DPR and LPR have invited Russian forces for peace keeping and security.

I never knew just how far the propaganda had spread.

 

[Buster15]

So what did all of the world leaders who begged Putin for an audience actually achieve.
Precisely two tenths of f all.
All they did in practice was to pander to Putin and make him look and feel even more important.
They need to acknowledge that he was and is not going to change his mind and hit him as hard as possible in every way possible.
Not with the intention of changing his mind, but to punish him and his power base.

 

[Andycoleno9]

This shows how important is to have capable ruler and Zelenskiy is not that. Diplomacy is art. Ukraine have specific geographical position. As i keep saying, geopolitics doesn't work by the rules what is right or wrong. They should have balanced better between Russia and EU and be aware what Russia can do to them. Yes, i know and i repeat, on paper "they can do whatever they want" but in reality that doesn't go like that. Orange revolution fecked them up. That is where their fall starts and that is where they said; "feck off Russia, we want to be part of EU" which was red flag for Putin.

To avoid "angry" replies. Again i repeat, it was 100% their right to turn to west but it was wrong move.