Serhou Guirassy - Best goalscoring streak in the world

[Withnail]

Possibly but it happens sometimes that a player is a late bloomer, thinking of players like Jamie Vardy, Di Natale and Luca Toni. For a release fee of 20 million it could be worth the risk.

And maybe it is but he'll need a lot more than 8 games or even half a season to be worth it.

I hadn't bothered to look into but sully's done the research. It's the purplest of purple patches.

As you could probably guess, his goalscoring this season is wildly unsustainable at 14 league goals from 7.5xG. It's just a very hot streak and, at 27 years old, almost certainly a level of form he'll never hit again in his career.

Though, tbf, 7.5xG from 8 games is pretty impressive in itself. Even scoring roughly to par with that would be good going.

 

[macheda14]

As you could probably guess, his goalscoring this season is wildly unsustainable at 14 league goals from 7.5xG. It's just a very hot streak and, at 27 years old, almost certainly a level of form he'll never hit again in his career.

Though, tbf, 7.5xG from 8 games is pretty impressive in itself. Even scoring roughly to par with that would be good going.

I’m not an xG head what should be the going rate, like should a good striker essentially always be outperforming it to an extent?

 

[TsuWave]

Absolute madness to sign someone based on 8 games.

He was a 1 in 3 striker in Ligue 1, and got 11 in 22 on loan at Leipzig last year.

11 in 22 is a good rate - that's one every two games - for under €20m that's not bad.

Hojlund is pretty much our main man for the foreseeable future, and thankfully he has shown great promise, but in the event of an injury we would be back to relying on Martial

 

[do.ob]

Absolute madness to sign someone based on 8 games.

He was a 1 in 3 striker in Ligue 1, and got 11 in 22 on loan at Leipzig last year. Granted, that seems to show some kind of a progression but chances are he wouldn't hit a barn door in the PL.

He was instrumental for Leipzig in the cup though.

 

[Withnail]

11 in 22 is a good rate - that's one every two games - for under €20m that's not bad.

Hojlund is pretty much our main man for the foreseeable future, and thankfully he has shown great promise, but in the event of an injury we would be back to relying on Martial

We've seen how conversion rates often go when moving from Bundesliga to PL, especially when the player only has one or two good seasons behind them.

If he finishes the season with 30 or so and is priced at 20m then may be worth a punt but it's still a risk for me.

 

[Ayoba]

It's not like any of our forward players are scoring, or assisting. Might as well take a punt on this fella

 

[TsuWave]

We've seen how conversion rates often go when moving from Bundesliga to PL, especially when the player only has one or two good seasons behind them.

If he finishes the season with 30 or so and is priced at 20m then may be worth a punt but it's still a risk for me.

Bundesliga has also provided some successes - and the suggestion was always anchored by "under €20m" and labelled as a "punt". Risk is implied.

 

[Withnail]

Bundesliga has also provided some successes - and the suggestion was always anchored by "under €20m" and labelled as a "punt". Risk is implied.

Fair enough, but very few get anywhere near their strike rate especially when moving so late in their career.

 

[stefan92]

I’m not an xG head what should be the going rate, like should a good striker essentially always be outperforming it to an extent?

It's very rare that a player consistently outperforms his xG and no, it is not expected. A good striker usually simply gets into more good situations than a bad striker (which raises his xG and leads to more goals as a result).

 

[sullydnl]

I’m not an xG head what should be the going rate, like should a good striker essentially always be outperforming it to an extent?

Some players do, but over the long run not as many as you might think. And not by that much.

For example, last season Kane overperformed his underlying stats by the biggest amount of his career at 0.22 goals per 90. Haaland had the second biggest overperformance of his career so far at 0.25. The biggest of Lionel Messi's career was 0.41.

Meanwhile, Guirassy has overperformed by 0.91 so far this season. That kinda highlights how we can be so sure he won't continue this form.

 

[ti vu]

He was instrumental for Leipzig in the cup though.

 

[Lincm]

Some players do, but over the long run not as many as you might think. And not by that much.

For example, last season Kane overperformed his underlying stats by the biggest amount of his career at 0.22 goals per 90. Haaland had the second biggest overperformance of his career so far at 0.25. The biggest of Lionel Messi's career was 0.41.

Meanwhile, Guirassy has overperformed by 0.91 so far this season. That kinda highlights how we can be so sure he won't continue this form.

Interesting. Vardy had 0.63 in the year Leicester won the title. But he averaged above 0.3 every season while they were in EPL

 

[Ted Lasso]

Twenty mil for a striker like ***? Never been an easier gamble to make.

 

[ForeverRed1]

For less €20m, think it would be a good punt to deputise/take the pressure/share minutes with Hojlund

We would need to move some deadwood though

Yeah, martial.

 

[ti vu]

Twenty mil for a striker like ***? Never been an easier gamble to make.

The fee maybe low, but what kind of contract he would ask? I meant if he believes himself to be late bloomer Haaland and ask for a big fat contract of 200+k and 5.5 years contract (maybe the only big contract in his career), would it be worth a risk?

 

[Lash]

The fee maybe low, but what kind of contract he would ask? I meant if he believes himself to be late bloomer Haaland and ask for a big fat contract of 200+k and 5.5 years contract (maybe the only big contract in his career), would it be worth a risk?

Absolutely zero chance he would ever ask for 200k+. That's a sure fire way of not moving.

 

[ti vu]

Absolutely zero chance he would ever ask for 200k+. That's a sure fire way of not moving.

Someone in Antony thread said aAntony used to be on 30k or so at Ajax, and moved to us and got 200k. This guy is 27 (?). He likely would take this chance to create a bidding war to get the best contract out of his next move using low release fee as leverage.

 

[Acrobat7]

As you could probably guess, his goalscoring this season is wildly unsustainable at 14 league goals from 7.5xG. It's just a very hot streak and, at 27 years old, almost certainly a level of form he'll never hit again in his career.

Though, tbf, 7.5xG from 8 games is pretty impressive in itself. Even scoring roughly to par with that would be good going.

It's a match made in heaven: Impressive football from a team that drastically underperformed last year and hired a very promising coach meets a striker who has hit a huge purple patch.

 

[ROFLUTION]

Do the bundesliga watchers here reckon he's worth a €35M punt?

Read that as wankers, might need new glasses

 

[Withnail]

Read that as wankers, might need new glasses

Well... Maybe

 

[Lash]

Someone in Antony thread said aAntony used to be on 30k or so at Ajax, and moved to us and got 200k. This guy is 27 (?). He likely would take this chance to create a bidding war to get the best contract out of his next move using low release fee as leverage.

Everyone is also highly critical of that, why would anyone do it again? Of course, but as everyone is saying here, why would anyone give him 200k when he's vastly outperforming his xG? He'd likely get a massive base jump for sure, but I imagine his contract would to be heavily incentivized for anyone to be paying him 200k a week.

 

[ti vu]

Everyone is also highly critical of that, why would anyone do it again? Of course, but as everyone is saying here, why would anyone give him 200k when he's vastly outperforming his xG? He'd likely get a massive base jump for sure, but I imagine his contract would to be heavily incentivized for anyone to be paying him 200k a week.

Players and their agent would be aware and have an estimated of the wage players at the club get. They would ask for it. Club doesn't agree, then they try to talk to other clubs. Vastly outperforming xG or not, if he register ridiculous amount like 20+ goals by mid season, or 30+ this whole season; the gamble is on with his low fee simply to spread the cost.

 

[Pronewbie]

Read that as wankers, might need new glasses

Could have been a Freudian slip, so a tug is probably all you need.

 

[Varun]

Read that as wankers, might need new glasses

Tomaato tometo

 

[ROFLUTION]

Could have been a Freudian slip, so a tug is probably all you need.

Cheers, I think I'll have a german.. watch.. now

 

[peridigm]

Let me guess, he's a Liverpool fan.
Incredible patience in front of goal to find the right shot.

 

[Forest Red]

We inquired about him this summer but for whatever reason it didn’t work out. it Might be second time lucky in January.

 

[RedUnited86]

This is such a United signing.

Spunk £40 million on a very good 4 months of form, only to discover they're Bebe 2.0.

 

[Acrobat7]

This is such a United signing.

Spunk £40 million on a very good 4 months of form, only to discover they're Bebe 2.0.

He has a release clause

 

[stefan92]

He has a release clause

Peak United would be missing the deadline for the clause and then having to pay that on deadline day of the transfer window. It's not like this hasn't happened before...

 

[RedUnited86]

He has a release clause

As did Fellaini

 

[Chipper]

Obviously on a massive hot streak finishing wise but he's also been doing nicely the previous 2 seasons.

23/24 Bundesliga goals per 90:
1. Guirassy 1.97
2. Kane 1.18
3. Beier 1.14
4. Boniface 0.92
5. Wind 0.91

23/24 Bundesliga xG per 90:
1. Boniface 1.15
2. Guirassy 1.06
3. Kane 0.94
4. Cvancara 0.86
5. Wind 0.68

22/23 Bundesliga goals per 90:
1. Choupo-Moting 0.81
2. Nkunku 0.76
3. Ingvartsen 0.68
4. Haller 0.66
5. Gnabry 0.65
6. Guirassy 0.60

22/23 Bundesliga xG per 90:
1. Nkunku 0.68
2. Haller 0.62
3. Guirassy 0.59
4. Thuram 0.59
5. Ingvartsen 0.57

21/22 Ligue 1 goals per 90 (minimum 1000 minutes):
1. Ben Yedder 0.89
2. Dembele 0.86
3. Mbappe 0.83
4. Guirassy 0.80
5. Ekitike 0.71

21/22 Ligue 1 xG per 90 (>1000 mins):
1. Dembele 0.79
2. Guirassy 0.72
3. Mbappe 0.71
4. Ben Yedder 0.64
5. Delort 0.54

Not advocating signing him, the video in the OP is all I've seen of him. For €20m I'd at least hope our scouts are taking a look and assessing him.

 

[Acrobat7]

Obviously on a massive hot streak finishing wise but he's also been doing nicely the previous 2 seasons.

23/24 Bundesliga goals per 90:
1. Guirassy 1.97
2. Kane 1.18
3. Beier 1.14
4. Boniface 0.92
5. Wind 0.91

23/24 Bundesliga xG per 90:
1. Boniface 1.15
2. Guirassy 1.06
3. Kane 0.94
4. Cvancara 0.86
5. Wind 0.68

22/23 Bundesliga goals per 90:
1. Choupo-Moting 0.81
2. Nkunku 0.76
3. Ingvartsen 0.68
4. Haller 0.66
5. Gnabry 0.65
6. Guirassy 0.60

22/23 Bundesliga xG per 90:
1. Nkunku 0.68
2. Haller 0.62
3. Guirassy 0.59
4. Thuram 0.59
5. Ingvartsen 0.57

21/22 Ligue 1 goals per 90 (minimum 1000 minutes):
1. Ben Yedder 0.89
2. Dembele 0.86
3. Mbappe 0.83
4. Guirassy 0.80
5. Ekitike 0.71

21/22 Ligue 1 xG per 90 (>1000 mins):
1. Dembele 0.79
2. Guirassy 0.72
3. Mbappe 0.71
4. Ben Yedder 0.64
5. Delort 0.54

Not advocating signing him, the video in the OP is all I've seen of him. For €20m I'd at least hope our scouts are taking a look and assessing him.

That is actually impressive. Thank you for digging out these stats.

 

[Lash]

Obviously on a massive hot streak finishing wise but he's also been doing nicely the previous 2 seasons.

23/24 Bundesliga goals per 90:
1. Guirassy 1.97
2. Kane 1.18
3. Beier 1.14
4. Boniface 0.92
5. Wind 0.91

23/24 Bundesliga xG per 90:
1. Boniface 1.15
2. Guirassy 1.06
3. Kane 0.94
4. Cvancara 0.86
5. Wind 0.68

22/23 Bundesliga goals per 90:
1. Choupo-Moting 0.81
2. Nkunku 0.76
3. Ingvartsen 0.68
4. Haller 0.66
5. Gnabry 0.65
6. Guirassy 0.60

22/23 Bundesliga xG per 90:
1. Nkunku 0.68
2. Haller 0.62
3. Guirassy 0.59
4. Thuram 0.59
5. Ingvartsen 0.57

21/22 Ligue 1 goals per 90 (minimum 1000 minutes):
1. Ben Yedder 0.89
2. Dembele 0.86
3. Mbappe 0.83
4. Guirassy 0.80
5. Ekitike 0.71

21/22 Ligue 1 xG per 90 (>1000 mins):
1. Dembele 0.79
2. Guirassy 0.72
3. Mbappe 0.71
4. Ben Yedder 0.64
5. Delort 0.54

Not advocating signing him, the video in the OP is all I've seen of him. For €20m I'd at least hope our scouts are taking a look and assessing him.

That is very interesting. His hot streak may be doing a bit of a disservice to his consistent improvement, being labelled a flash in the pan.