The Breakup of the EU

[Green_Red]

Does anyone foresee this happening now that Brexit is behind us?

It will be interesting to see whether the resolve of Germany and France are tested financially when they have to continue funding the project.

Anyone got any thoughts? Thought it was relevant given the breakup of the UK thread.

 

[Rado_N]

No.

 

[horsechoker]

Only see it happening if the big 2 leave or 3-4 medium boys leave (Italy, Spain etc).

 

[redshaw]

Don't see it happening in the slightest. If anything, after seeing the poor deal the UK has there won't be much attraction and it makes sense to improve and keep the mainland together. It's a disadvantage to be out so there's a good chance UK will break up.

Financially it might have to reign in some things but overall it will continue to truck along with more eager to join.

 

[cyberman]

No, if anything the power those 2 wield will be lost and they wouldn't want that

 

[Edgar Allan Pillow]

I can see Britain getting back in more than EU breaking up.

 

[Berbasbullet]

No.

 

[JPRouve]

Is the question asked from the POV of the UK? Because it's important to remember that the "project" wasn't created with the UK in mind and that the reasons behind it still exists and are even more relevant today than they were in the 50s.

 

[sullydnl]

Nothing about the Brexit experience thus far will serve as encouragement for countries to break away from the EU as we've now had years of discussion on the severe negatives that entails, with a case study in the negatives still to follow as we watch the UK inevitably struggle with the realities of what they've unleashed.

Aside from anything else, it's extremely likely that Brexit will directly result in or be the catalyst for the break-up of the United Kingdom in its current form. Hardly a political success to emulate.

But external events and crises can always occur that change things, of course.

I'd be interested to know the reasoning behind the idea that France or Germany may see net benefit from the dissolution of the EU? Seems unlikely.

 

[11101]

No. The tiny flashes of anti EU sentiment have long since gone, if anything seeing the mess Britain is now in has strengthened the appeal of being in it. Its years since it was a topic of conversation.

 

[Acole9]

I can see Britain getting back in more than EU breaking up.

Me too, absolutely no chance it'll break up. That's just something which has been dreamt up by the pro brexiteers.

 

[KirkDuyt]

Would be ridiculously short sighted and luckily I dont see it happening. Globalism is the way of the future. Nationalism is for ants.

 

[DOTA]

What's Le Pen's position? Last I heard she'd changed her mind and opposed any steps towards France leaving.

 

[Mr Pigeon]

Anyone leaving the EU after seeing how successful we have been at it would be like seeing someone try to slide down a hill on a tea trolley, flipping over, dragging themselves arse way through some sharp rocks, having their half dead carcass chewed up by a pack of wolves and then spontaneously exploding. Nobody in the line after you is going to say "good idea, that."

 

[coolredwine]

Does anyone foresee this happening now that Brexit is behind us?

It will be interesting to see whether the resolve of Germany and France are tested financially when they have to continue funding the project.

Anyone got any thoughts? Thought it was relevant given the breakup of the UK thread.

Britain will be back in about 10-20 years time, so no.

 

[JPRouve]

What's Le Pen's position? Last I heard she'd changed her mind and opposed any steps towards France leaving.

She is still pro EU.

 

[unchanged_lineup]

Britain will be back in about 10-20 years time, so no.

Or parts of it. Scotland first, or NI after rejoining with the Republic.

 

[horsechoker]

I'm going to keep spamming my opinion on this that way I can win people round to my side.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Zero chance. Also do not see the UK (or rather England) rejoining the EU either in the foreseeable future.

 

[led_scholes]

EU has two ways: either integrate properly, or break up. This middle way is not sustainable, especially for the lesser countries, but i do not see it breaking up the next few years, unless citizens wake up and demand change that the current elite is not able to provide.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

EU has two ways: either integrate properly, or break up. This middle way is not sustainable, especially for the lesser countries, but i do not see it breaking up the next few years, unless citizens wake up and demand change that the current elite is not able to provide.

Which elite is that. Is That Farage. Demand change of what?

 

[fergieisold]

I could see it failing but it’s dependent on some of the main states leaving, which is possible given the rise of right wing politics.

If I were a member state or a resident of one I’d be pretty appalled at how the EU have fecked up the vaccine rollout and then gone on to try and blame everybody but themselves.

 

[RedSky]

Pretty sure the fiasco of Brexit will have scared off the rest of Europe of leaving. We've tanked a horrendous amount of money into this shit show, money that the vast amount of countries simply don't have.

 

[F-Red]

No.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

I think a breakup is very unlikely in the next 20-30 years. There’s too much shared interest and mutual reliance for a dissolution of the block to make any sense.

However, I wouldn’t be that confident that the UK will be the last country to leave. There’s too much populism and misinformation around to rule out another country making a decision in haste.

Longer term, I think there will need to be significant treaty reform to keep it functioning and for the balance between rich and poorer countries to be sustainable. I think the internal contradictions and tensions of the Euro currency are going to be a nightmare to sort out at some point.

The EU is one of the great political inventions of the post-war era, and we should all hope it prevails.

 

[NinjaFletch]

It's a really daft fantasy the Brexiteers have dreamed up for themselves.

It's very unlikely the EU continues indefinitely in its current form and changes and maybe even departures are possible.

But the idea they'd be inspired by Brexit, given that Europe has spent the last 5 years laughing at it, is hilairous.

 

[Withnail]

I can see Britain getting back in more than EU breaking up.

I think the UK breaking up and joining back as smaller entities more likely than the EU breaking up.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

The funny part is Brexiters saying "given the rise of right-wing politics" but that's in the UK and they don't realise it.

Even the most RW politician in France (Le Pen) is pro-EU.
Trump has gone, one RW leader less.

The UK is left holding the RW baby.

 

[Plymouth Red]

I've done some reading up on what EU citizens are thinking about this question and their view appears to point to a demise of the institution.

The European Centre for Foreign Relations did a survey in 2019, which you can read about here and the majority view was a collapse with 10-20 years. Only Spain had a majority which saw the bloc enduring. More worrying was the proportion of respondents across the countries who saw a chance of conflict between members

It's worth remembering that this survey was carried out at a time when Covid wasn't even on the horizon and economically, things weren't as bad as they are now. If the same survey was carried out today, my gut feeling is that the future of the institution would look even more uncertain.

Turning to the impact of Covid, another survey was done to establish how EU citizens perceived the EU's contribution to the crisis. This Guardian article shows that the organisation doesn't come out of the survey well.

Once more, retaking opinion today is unlikely to improve citizen sentiment.

These threats to the EU would be tough to deal with by themselves but there is also the future economic double whammy it faces from the loss of the UK as a net contributor and the financial impact of the virus, which will take years to overcome.

Then add to the mix Russia's destabilising actions, America's unknown future stance towards the bloc, climate change, migration from outside the bloc and China's desire for world domination.

All in all, the makings of a bad day at the office for Ursula and co for some time to come, I think and as we have seen before, when an iceberg is approaching, human nature often kicks in and it's every man/woman/country for themselves when there is a rush to the lifeboat.

 

[do.ob]

It's a really daft fantasy the Brexiteers have dreamed up for themselves.

It's very unlikely the EU continues indefinitely in its current form and changes and maybe even departures are possible.

But the idea they'd be inspired by Brexit, given that Europe has spent the last 5 years laughing at it, is hilairous.

Well you can see where questions like the OP come from if you take a casual look at the express page.

 

[Monkey bus]

Honestly think the bigger net contributors to EU funds will have one eye on how the UK performs over the next few years.

We made a massive balls up of our exit and there will be teething problems for the foreseeable. However if we are then able to resume favourable trade deals within the EU and globally, I feel some countries will at least consider leaving. Particularly taking on board the damage C19 has caused to most economies. It won’t be a case of just returning to how it always was.

Using the UK example as a template of how not to leave the EU will also help any would be departees.

 

[spiriticon]

No there isn't going to be a breakup but it needs reform. But who's gonna reform it? No one.

The status quo is here to stay.

 

[Sweet Square]

The funny part is Brexiters saying "given the rise of right-wing politics" but that's in the UK and they don't realise it.

Even the most RW politician in France (Le Pen) is pro-EU.
Trump has gone, one RW leader less.

The UK is left holding the RW baby.

Still doesn't take away the fact she is extremely right wing/a fascist. Le Pen is more right wing that any current tory.

Also Hungary and Poland are in the EU(Also far more to the right than the UK).

 

[JPRouve]

Honestly think the bigger net contributors to EU funds will have one eye on how the UK performs over the next few years.

We made a massive balls up of our exit and there will be teething problems for the foreseeable. However if we are then able to resume favourable trade deals within the EU and globally, I feel some countries will at least consider leaving. Particularly taking on board the damage C19 has caused to most economies. It won’t be a case of just returning to how it always was.

Using the UK example as a template of how not to leave the EU will also help any would be departees.

No they won't for a simple reason, we have thousands of kilometers of land borders and the volume of daily border crossing is uncomparable to the EU. The UK and Brexit aren't and will never be a model because the context is totally different, no one is keeping an eye on it.

 

[Green_Red]

Britain will be back in about 10-20 years time, so no.

The EU will be a failed project by that time. So no.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

She is extremely right wing/a fascist. Le Pen is more right wing that any current tory.

Also Hungary and Poland are in the EU.

That's what I said, Le Pen is extremely RW but still pro EU and the Euro, because after her humiliation in the 2017 presidential elections she discovered she was preaching total nonsense, which I suppose is a good thing , some self-awareness. She is now asking immigrants and non-white and multi-religion people to vote for her next year, hilarious.

Hungary and Poland are RW and in the EU but know how much the EU has benefitted them, Italy as well.

 

[Green_Red]

Is the question asked from the POV of the UK? Because it's important to remember that the "project" wasn't created with the UK in mind and that the reasons behind it still exists and are even more relevant today than they were in the 50s.

The question has nothing to do with the UK. This is the EU we are talking about. A successful economic partnership but a failed political project.

 

[starman]

It won't breakup, but I can definitely see a few more countries (Sweden, possibly Italy) leaving, as mention above, it needs reform and that's what could jolt it into action, as its too stubborn, if that happens, that might be a path way for the UK to rejoining.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Sounds like a lot right wing babies in the EU then.

Three out of 27 isn't bad - Uk has one out of one.

 

[The Firestarter]

The EU will be a failed project by that time. So no.

Are you some kind of Nostradamus so you can make such sweeping statements without a shred of evidence to back them up? Or just wumming.