I make Spurs significant favorites at this point.
The big question for them is the health of Kane and Son. The last three seasons Kane has missed 10, 8, and 3 league games due to injury in the second half. His body has tended to break down over the course of the season. If he stays healthy or only misses a couple matches, Spurs really should get fourth. They have the best manager, two world class forwards, and a relatively simple but effective tactical setup that should provide them some consistency. If Kane misses a longer stretch of matches (like the 8-10 matches of the 18-19 or 19-20 seasons) they are probably screwed.