The end of the United Kingdom?

[Kinsella]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

It's looking increasingly likely now but...what say you?

 

[balaks]

Not at all surprised.

 

[The Firestarter]

Ooh this thread will be fun. Scotland will be accepted right away back in the EU.

 

[Deery]

The DUP are actually having grown up discussion about it now whereas before they would never entertain the idea, so I’m thinking it’s not totally inconceivable at this time. Whether or not we would even be better of in an United Ireland is actually another thing.

 

[africanspur]

Am I being an idiot here? The second tweet says support for Scottish independence would be 52%.....but it says 49% in the picture linked?

 

[mikey_d]

I have thought for a long time that brexit would cause the UK to split- scotland will go first, N.Ireland to follow, wales once those two have left will also.

 

[horsechoker]

Ooh this thread will be fun. Scotland will be accepted right away back in the EU.

I really don't think it will be that easy even if the EU like to blow smoke up Scotland's arse.

No doubt it would happen eventually if an independent Scotland wanted to make it happen but only after years.

It took Croatia 10 years from its initial application to become a member

 

[africanspur]

Also, a Scottish break from the UK would make the Brexit process look like a cakewalk in my opinion. Especially if its a similar 52/48 split.

 

[Dirty Schwein]

So will BREXIT become ENGXIT?

 

[Cheimoon]

I really don't think it will be that easy even if the EU like to blow smoke up Scotland's arse.

No doubt it would happen eventually if an independent Scotland wanted to make it happen but only after years.

It took Croatia 10 years from its initial application to become a member

Yes, it's a very protracted process. Also, Spain might get in the way, certainly at the start, cause they don't to give any encouragement to Catalonian independence. Scotland would easily make it in eventually though. And it will be relatively painless, since much of the regulations already confirm to EU standards and requirements.

 

[Cheimoon]

So will BREXIT become ENGXIT?

Scoxit, rather? And NIxit?

 

[The Firestarter]

I really don't think it will be that easy even if the EU like to blow smoke up Scotland's arse.

No doubt it would happen eventually if an independent Scotland wanted to make it happen but only after years.

It took Croatia 10 years from its initial application to become a member

Yeah but all the laws are already in place, and that is what usually takes time.

 

[Pexbo]

Am I being an idiot here? The second tweet says support for Scottish independence would be 52%.....but it says 49% in the picture linked?

7% undecided - assumption they would abstain leaving 93% of voters.

49 is 52.6% of 93. I presume this is how they manufactured the golden 52/48 ratio that is required for every poll like this.

 

[sullydnl]

What would count as the United Kingdom breaking up?

I ask because as per that poll the majority of people in England would either be pleased or not bothered by a United Ireland, whereas that isn't the case regarding Scottish independence. George Osborne also had a piece on this issue this week in which he said that a United Ireland was inevitable but England generally wouldn't care, whereas Scotland leaving would mark the real breakup of the UK.

So when we ask how likely the UK is to come to an end, do we really just mean how likely Scotland is to leave?

 

[horsechoker]

Yes, it's a very protracted process. Also, Spain might get in the way, certainly at the start, cause they don't to give any encouragement to Catalonian independence. Scotland would easily make it in eventually though. And it will be relatively painless, since much of the regulations already confirm to EU standards and requirements.

Yeah but all the laws are already in place, and that is what usually takes time.

I would be cautious, it all sounds similar to the "easiest trade deal" in history comments we heard about Brexit.

Somehow I don't think this will be agreed in an afternoon over a plate of Haggis

 

[Ramshock]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

It's looking increasingly likely now but...what say you?

Hopefully

 

[Kinsella]

What would count as the United Kingdom breaking up?

I ask because as per that poll the majority of people in England would either be pleased or not bothered by a United Ireland, whereas the majority would be upset by Scottish independence. George Osborne also had a piece on this issue this week in which he said that a United Ireland was inevitable but England generally wouldn't care, whereas Scotland leaving would mark the real breakup of the UK.

So when we ask how likely the UK is to come to an end, do we really just mean how likely Scotland is to leave?

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/nationalism-union-brexit-b900299.html

 

[africanspur]

7% undecided - assumption they would abstain leaving 93% of voters.

49 is 52.6% of 93. I presume this is how they manufactured the golden 52/48 ratio that is required for every poll like this.

What a strange way of calculating. I don't think undecideds would simply abstain from voting at all and in a way, they're the most important voting bloc.

 

[SalfordRed18]

Been anything but United this past year.

 

[2cents]

North ‘slowly becoming part of united Ireland’, says former British chancellor
George Osborne says Northern Ireland is ‘heading for the exit door’ from the United Kingdom

“The former British chancellor of the exchequer George Osborne has said Northern Ireland is “heading for the exit door” from the United Kingdom.

Writing in the London Evening Standard, where he is now editor-in-chief, Mr Osborne said the North was “slowly becoming part of a united Ireland” and most people in England “will not care”...”

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/pol...-former-british-chancellor-1.4463045?mode=amp

 

[The Firestarter]

I would be cautious, it all sounds similar to the "easiest trade deal" in history comments we heard about Brexit.

Somehow I don't think this will be agreed in an afternoon over a plate of Haggis

They will probably have to join the euro zone as well, which I think they won't mind doing.

 

[Pexbo]

What a strange way of calculating. I don't think undecideds would simply abstain from voting at all and in a way, they're the most important voting bloc.

This is based on pure assumption rather than gut feeling - I imagine that most undecideds in any voting group are more likely to vote to maintain the status quo?

 

[The Firestarter]

North ‘slowly becoming part of united Ireland’, says former British chancellor
George Osborne says Northern Ireland is ‘heading for the exit door’ from the United Kingdom

“The former British chancellor of the exchequer George Osborne has said Northern Ireland is “heading for the exit door” from the United Kingdom.

Writing in the London Evening Standard, where he is now editor-in-chief, Mr Osborne said the North was “slowly becoming part of a united Ireland” and most people in England “will not care”...”

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/pol...-former-british-chancellor-1.4463045?mode=amp

Didnt some MP say recently (~2y) "I dont care if NI drops to the bottom of the sea!" ?

 

[Cheimoon]

I would be cautious, it all sounds similar to the "easiest trade deal" in history comments we heard about Brexit.

Somehow I don't think this will be agreed in an afternoon over a plate of Haggis

It's different though, in the sense that Scotland knows exactly what it's like to be in the EU and that rules for EU membership are known and clear. As long as there is no opposition to Scotland inside the EU (hence: Spain), and Scotland is willing to accept the Euro (possibly the greatest stumbling block), applying for EU membership is a fairly knowable and straightforward journey to embark on for Scotland (if they so choose).

 

[africanspur]

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/nationalism-union-brexit-b900299.html

What a fecking idiot. I love how he writes the article as if he and Cameron weren't holding the reigns of power when the Brexit referendum happened. 'By unleashing English nationalism'.....yeah that just appeared out of nowhere didn't it George?

Twit.

 

[Cheimoon]

Didnt some MP say recently (~2y) "I dont care if NI drops to the bottom of the sea!" ?

Looks like Scots could also have said that, considering the percentage of them responding 'not bothered' to the question on NI independence!

 

[horsechoker]

They will probably have to join the euro zone as well, which I think they won't mind doing.

Maybe not but it's not something that will just happen. If Scottish independence happens before 2030 then I think Scotland be a member of the EU (again?) 5 years after that at the very ambitious minimum.

I do think that joining the EU will be easier than leaving the UK. Westminster will try it's hardest not relinquish British territory.

 

[T00lsh3d]

Does anyone feel British? Or do you feel English/Scottish etc etc

 

[acnumber9]

Yeah, I can’t wait for all the extra job losses Northern Ireland would have. I find eating overrated anyway.

 

[balaks]

Yeah, I can’t wait for all the extra job losses Northern Ireland would have. I find eating overrated anyway.

It's nice to feel wanted isn't it?

 

[Peter van der Gea]

Doesn't Scotland have a load of North Sea oil that the EU would welcome tariff free access to?

 

[F-Red]

Doesn't Scotland have a load of North Sea oil that the EU would welcome tariff free access to?

Ah yes, oil. The dying commodity.

 

[acnumber9]

It's nice to feel wanted isn't it?

It doesn’t come as a surprise that people in England don’t give a shit about us. We get regular evidence of it. We’re screwed if we leave though. Really screwed.

 

[Cheimoon]

It doesn’t come as a surprise that people in England don’t give a shit about us. We get regular evidence of it. We’re screwed if we leave though. Really screwed.

Why's that? Wouldn't NI just join RoI, and things would kinda go on as before, especially now the customs border is anyway in the Irish Sea?

 

[Peter van der Gea]

Ah yes, oil. The dying commodity.

They'll make hay whilst the sun is shining, then be virtuous and carbon neutral when the oil is too expensive to drill

 

[yumtum]

Can't we just make London a country and the rest of us become the United Kingdom? It's pretty much the case anyway.

 

[golden_blunder]

It doesn’t come as a surprise that people in England don’t give a shit about us. We get regular evidence of it. We’re screwed if we leave though. Really screwed.

USA and EU will look after NI, they love it

 

[Kasper]

It still amazes me how the whole "There will be no economic border in the Irish Sea!" posturing was completely dropped by the Tories once they didn`t rely on the DUP anymore. No spine whatsoever and the media barely bothered and let them get away with it.

 

[horsechoker]

Can't we just make London a country and the rest of us become the United Kingdom? It's pretty much the case anyway.

Singapore-on-The-Thames™

 

[acnumber9]

Why's that? Wouldn't NI just join RoI, and things would kinda go on as before, especially now the customs border is anyway in the Irish Sea?

They can’t afford to hire a third of our adults to work for them. Northern Ireland is a Civil Service country.