Pogue Mahone
The caf's Camus.
Well I’d only need to be as confident as, for example, the Israeli health service. Or any other health service in the world that decided not to risk prescribing vaccines off-license despite dealing with a horrendous wave of new cases/hospitalisations. The UK was far from the only health service under immense stress when vaccine roll-out started. If anything, it was in a better place than most, with more plentiful/earlier supplies of vaccine available so less pressure to make each vial go as far as possible.If, at the end of December/start of January, with 3k admitted a day and numbers in hospital blowing through the previous peak, you were calmly thinking lockdown would sort things out on it's own by March, then you'd have been more confident than pretty much anyone else.
Also, the vaccination programme has had a clear effect on reducing hospitalisations and deaths of the highest risk groups, above and beyond the reductions in younger age groups due to lockdown.
Any impact of the vaccine on UK cases has only been evident in the last week or two. A month or so past the peak of this wave.