1) Its too reactive is my point. Whats odds supposed to tell us when they can change so suddenly?
2) I remember you saying Spurs were favourites over us due to bookies favouring Joses ability to get results v small sides etc but that thought process is obsolete one week later? It bounces around too much.
If they were truely a predictive indicator, shouldnt they take these future blips into consideration or do sides have to win every game for it to come true?
3) Chelsea loses to Bournemouth who they struggle against every year and we win away v Everton which we seem to do most years.
None of that would be out of the ordinary yet it it were to happen these odds would drastically change and we will again be told these new odds are a great guide etc etc.
1) They tell us the (approximate) true probabality of an outcome happening at this point in time. New information will change that probability. If the entire Leicester team catch Corona virus tomorrow, they'll suddenly be favourites to drop out of the top four. The initial odds were still correct though because that fact wasn't known at the time.
2) That definitely wasn't me. I think I expressed my suprise at that because I think United quite clearly are a better side than Spurs. The "future blips" are taken into consideration. United are expected to get about 1.3 points on average at Goodison later based on current market prices. So if they draw or lose, their price
has to drift and if they win, it
has to shorten (ignoring the other results for now). But again, that doesn't make the current price incorrect.
3) That is largely relevant. I know supporters love these sort of stats and Sky have to mention every game for how long X haven't won at Anfield/Stamford Bridge or whatever but there is no correlation. Chelsea don't struggle against Bournemouth for some reason and United don't perform better at Goodison relative to the actual team strengths. It's just variance and statistical noise. Unless there is a specific tactical match-up (Liverpool at Atletico comes to mind last week) that shifts actual team strengths. Line-ups fluctuate way too much and the sample-size is way too small. There is pretty much zero relevance of how Chelsea performed at Bournemouth five season ago to today's match.
. It's a tall order to get ~65 points. At the mid point this season it was tracking below 2016's 66 points for 4th and is still on course to be low 60s.