Vote in the House is today. The last time we ran this show Collor was removed from office the next day, for a period of 6 months at most, to await trial by the Senate. This time our Supreme Court (because who cares about precedent in applying a law that hasn't changed) made it so that the Senate must first decide whether to accept the proceedings, and that will be done by a simple majority vote which will happen some 2 weeks after today. And theeeeennnn.... she's removed from office for 6 months at most to await trial by the Senate (the same one that already had a vote). So give it another 2 weeks, plus whatever else delays can be tossed in. Meanwhile the economy that contracted 4% last year gets no policy changes.
Turmoil in Brazil
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik @Rood and Imran @Annihilate Now! start with the good news by celebrating Manchester United Women's emphatic FA Cup win over Spurs at Wembley and the future of manager Marc Skinner.
Then it's the bad news and the ever worsening form of our Men with losses to Arsenal and Palace.
Finally the main debate - ETH Out now or keep him until the end of the season - if not longer. Are you Team Nik or Team Imran?
He is, and he might be a candidate next time around. The difference between him and Trump is that he's an actual politician, which tones down the insane slightly. e.g. there are no wall building proposals.Bolsonaro really is a character.
Him and Trump in power would be hilarious.
I'm a bit nervous about my EWZ position. Don't want any nasty surprises on Monday morning
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a) Fair enough, the majority of the media is against them. But I still think the accusations of bias are often exaggerated. Globo isn't one monolithic creature with one editorial line across a TV channel, a news channel, a newspaper and radio. Even their nightly news are slightly different because the later show's anchor is harsher on PT.
b) The judge who had pictures of himself at some of the recent protests on his FB profile was the one that initially ruled that Lula's appointment to ministry wasn't valid. He was overturned the same day, then the Supreme Court ruled on the issue by putting the appointment on hold pending deliberation by the whole court. Obviously I find none of this acceptable from a judge, but these aren't accusations that can be made towards Sergio Moro.
There's not been any significant violations of due process, otherwise Moro's decisions could've easily been overturned by courts above him, but that's also been very rare. The most significant violation of due process in this whole mess imo was perpetrated by the Attorney General and Supreme Court when they had Andre Esteves (banker) arrested on the basis of hearsay.
Sergio Moro's one moment where he clearly "played to the crowd" was the release of the recordings of Lula's bugged phone calls on the same day Dilma made him minister. So its unusual that a judge release the tapes from an investigation the same day they were made, although not illegal in itself. And they shouldn't at all when the President or other ministers are on the recording. But what is one to do when he catches the President committing obstruction of justice?
As for the list, that was unusual because it wasn't part of the official release of evidence that occurs some days after the raids. It leaked without the approval of the head prosecutors, or so its said. There was an event in 1993 when the Federal Police found about a cartel of construction companies bribing politicians to get contracts (much like today). The out that the politicians found was that one of them called João Paulo Bisol handed Veja magazine a list of 200 politicians who had received "gifts" from Odebrecht, but some of those had just received calendars, pens, etc. Mixing the actually involved with those that weren't made it a wash. Ever since its been known as the "Bisol trap", and Marcelo Odebrecht when he was arrested last year had msgs on his cellphone that included the note "Bisol trap?". So basically there was suspicion that the leak of the list was an attempt at the trap. Many of the values listed match up with official campaign contributions to the respective politicians.
Probably seems BS that I come up with an answer for it, and it might be. Maybe Sergio Moro and the prosecutors would stop when investigating the other side. But one thing is that they can only investigate people who aren't ministers or sitting congressmen. All those the AG and Supreme Court must deal with. And boy are they slow.
c) We had managed to go from 1996 to 2014 without improving the government's apparent fiscal position by not paying amounts due to public banks. Its part of the 2014 election narrative, analysts had noticed something was off and had called it to attention. The government spent the entire year of 2014 dismissing the claims that they were doing anything at all, and claiming that the fiscal position was solid and inline with budget targets. Then in 2015 it was admitted to, but at a lower amount. The true size of what the government owed Caixa (public bank) had to be found out by auditors. Of course its the auditor's job to check anything anyways, but its not proper government to do it in the first place, then spend an entire year lying about it. This should be no small matter in a country that's constantly under scrutiny by investors due to its history.
As for the elections, obviously PT won and I don't claim there was any rigging of votes. But their campaign financing was not within the law, and they had a warchest of illegal money. So its hard to call the elections entirely "fair", and at lower levels (mayor especially) election winners have been disqualified because of lesser violations of the election law. There is such a trial running in the Supreme Electoral Court (because you can never have enough different courts), but its also moving along at turtle pace, waiting for a political solution to the mess rather than a legal one.
d) I do think that PSDB threw out a chunk of their credibility when they let inflation run high in 1998 to try and keep the economy strong and win the election. I don't take that lightly either, and I'm always ready not to vote for PSDB if a better candidate comes forward. About these days, I was talking less about the recent history, but rather about what would happen if the fiscal situation continues to deteriorate and government decides to just print money to meet the nominal obligations.
e) I make no assumptions about your preferences. Honest debate is always worth our time. Its obviously not black and white, and nothing ever is.
I don't think so, but the risk/reward is against you. Down 10% at least if it doesn't pass I'd think.I'm a bit nervous about my EWZ position. Don't want any nasty surprises on Monday morning
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the voting process just begun. That might take a while....
What's the magic number needed to impeach again ? 337 or something like that ?
342
Wow, 155 in favour of impeachment and just 42 voted no so far !!
They are well ahead of the 66% needed. It will take quite a few NOs to save her.
Now 171 voted YES, 43 voted NO, 3 abstained , 296 yet to vote, . She's done probably.
Follow it here:
The brazenness and audacity of those MPs is quite impressive.
Character is not their strong suit.
Is it a done deal or can she stop it ?
They voted to impeach her
And so it is done, this morning Brazil has a new President in exercise. The senate vote symbolically passed the 2/3 threshold which will be needed in the trial to have the impeachment confirmed.
Now Brazil gets a chance to correct course. I worry though, and wonder whether Michel Temer and his crew have the will to see through the necessary changes, even in the face of opposition within his own party, and if they have the smarts to get it right. I also worry if its not too late anyways.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36273916
Now Brazil gets a chance to correct course. I worry though, and wonder whether Michel Temer and his crew have the will to see through the necessary changes, even in the face of opposition within his own party, and if they have the smarts to get it right. I also worry if its not too late anyways.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36273916
The senate, that fine institution, with over 60% of his members facing justice themselves.
How can they have the right to vote? A shame for Brazil and justice...
Now Dilma is out for 180 days, pending the final decision (innocent or guilty).
the new "president" Temer is also under investigation and facing justice. What a joke.
The only winners out of all this sham, are gonna be all those diputados and senators under investigation. Dilma was the sacrifice to save them all. They gonna manage their moustaches among each other now, create some kind of amnesty law and sweep under the table all the dirty deeds. feck democracy.
How can they have the right to vote? A shame for Brazil and justice...
Now Dilma is out for 180 days, pending the final decision (innocent or guilty).
the new "president" Temer is also under investigation and facing justice. What a joke.
The only winners out of all this sham, are gonna be all those diputados and senators under investigation. Dilma was the sacrifice to save them all. They gonna manage their moustaches among each other now, create some kind of amnesty law and sweep under the table all the dirty deeds. feck democracy.
It is never too late, but how can a guy who was happily supporting the government, fix their feck ups (which are also his own mistakes)? Temer is a terrible replacement and the whole episode will hurt Brazil a lot in the long run. That said becoming president, while your popularity ratings are in single digits is quite an achievement.
I already know how this is going to play out. Temer will make some half-arsed reforms, while covering up all the corruption as good as possible. He is the typical candidate of crony-capitalism. In the next election Lula will run again and because of all the polarization and the terrible state of most parties, he´ll win the election and continue with his nonsense.
I already know how this is going to play out. Temer will make some half-arsed reforms, while covering up all the corruption as good as possible. He is the typical candidate of crony-capitalism. In the next election Lula will run again and because of all the polarization and the terrible state of most parties, he´ll win the election and continue with his nonsense.
Could the military step in?
No. I don´t see that at all. The military is committed to democracy, because they understand that there is no beneficial alternative for them.
As bad as PT is, the only reason why they continue to win elections is, because most alternatives are beyond the pale. The Brazilian people are also fairly conservative and not particularly left leaning; fairly strict fiscal policies are actually popular (compared to most other Latin American countries). Any credible semi-decent center-right party could easily sweep the next elections after those 4 terms of PT policy.
Temer was vice president since 2011. How does he have any credibility to “fix” Brazil, after supporting the government for 5 years? Over 60% already want him to be kicked out. In the long run this charade will help the PT to win further elections.
The Constitution doesn't require a crookedness test to judge the legitimacy of the Senate. If it did Brazil would probably have no laws, good or bad.The senate, that fine institution, with over 60% of his members facing justice themselves.
How can they have the right to vote? A shame for Brazil and justice...
Now Dilma is out for 180 days, pending the final decision (innocent or guilty).
the new "president" Temer is also under investigation and facing justice. What a joke.
The only winners out of all this sham, are gonna be all those diputados and senators under investigation. Dilma was the sacrifice to save them all. They gonna manage their moustaches among each other now, create some kind of amnesty law and sweep under the table all the dirty deeds. feck democracy.
I'm not sure he'll be a free man through the end of this year, or he'll flee to exile somewhere. In any case, not a platform to run in 2018.
Very unlikely, nothing in it for them. The standing of the military in society and politics was much different pre-1964.
Its what he's signaled so far, that he knows that they need to make budget cuts, sell assets, and generally move to improve the fiscal situation.
I think its hard to judge the relative strength of different players at this time, as it relates to popular support. I don't think that its a widely held position that Temer should also go now. I think people who protested earlier this year and last year knew what they were asking for and that it was he that would be in charge if it went through.
Also think Marina Silva is the favorite for the next elections. She was strong in 2014 until a drop-off in the last weeks, and represents a central candidate with a clean personal record.
I guess we have different opinions about the roots of the economic problems in Brazil. I´d also bet that Lula will make a comeback...remember my words in 2018....
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5ea48f62-2111-11e6-9dea-6c9f084f551d.html#axzz49WRh4TNt
aaaaand let the next round begin. It is only a matter of time until Temer is ousted. One of his allies was wired taped and those tapes leaked. They pretty much indicate/confirm, that the whole thing is just a cover-up to save some of the politicians from lavo jato. They also put the impartiality of the court in doubt.
http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/...em-pacto-para-deter-avanco-da-lava-jato.shtml
aaaaand let the next round begin. It is only a matter of time until Temer is ousted. One of his allies was wired taped and those tapes leaked. They pretty much indicate/confirm, that the whole thing is just a cover-up to save some of the politicians from lavo jato. They also put the impartiality of the court in doubt.
http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/...em-pacto-para-deter-avanco-da-lava-jato.shtml
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Disagree its only a matter of time until he's ousted. Its not like he's going to have a long term anyways. If he's around through March or so of 2018 he'll be in until the end of that year, because I don't think anyone is going to want to create a fuss during an election year, they're generally all too busy. Also think Jucá was promising things he couldn't really influence in the conversation.
Now there's apparently recordings of other politicians, Renan Calheiros and Jose Sarney allegedly... its all well and good to try and get them (although Sarney will probably pass away soon), but I'm not too excited at the prospect of these guys trying to outmaneuver one another to see who takes final ownership of the corpse of a country soon to be left.
Now there's apparently recordings of other politicians, Renan Calheiros and Jose Sarney allegedly... its all well and good to try and get them (although Sarney will probably pass away soon), but I'm not too excited at the prospect of these guys trying to outmaneuver one another to see who takes final ownership of the corpse of a country soon to be left.
I guess this is the same thing that you guys were talking about.
https://theintercept.com/2016/05/23...w-time-for-media-outlets-to-call-this-a-coup/
The justices being involved is the really big shock here, it does cast a shadow over the whole process.
https://theintercept.com/2016/05/23...w-time-for-media-outlets-to-call-this-a-coup/
The justices being involved is the really big shock here, it does cast a shadow over the whole process.
That's exactly what I've been saying all this time. It was so obvious.
The positive out of all this, its that they auto fecked themselves with all this impeachment process. They could have looked for a deal with Dilma and try to save everybody, but by opening Pandora's box, the whole foundation of Brazilian politics have been shaken to the ground.
Now Brazilian people knows the truth. They have it right there in front of them. No matter the "political color" of the politicians, they are fecking you.
I just only pray Brazilians remember when the time to vote again comes. If they forget, they are fecked and the cycle will began again.
Here in Chile its exactly the same. The scams of the politicians have been discovered, its there for everybody to see, BUT, amazingly, its like doesn't matter. Right wing supporters try to make excuses for them, and the same from the other side. Its so pathetic, i feel just like Luke Wilson's character in the movie Idiocracy.
The positive out of all this, its that they auto fecked themselves with all this impeachment process. They could have looked for a deal with Dilma and try to save everybody, but by opening Pandora's box, the whole foundation of Brazilian politics have been shaken to the ground.
Now Brazilian people knows the truth. They have it right there in front of them. No matter the "political color" of the politicians, they are fecking you.
I just only pray Brazilians remember when the time to vote again comes. If they forget, they are fecked and the cycle will began again.
Here in Chile its exactly the same. The scams of the politicians have been discovered, its there for everybody to see, BUT, amazingly, its like doesn't matter. Right wing supporters try to make excuses for them, and the same from the other side. Its so pathetic, i feel just like Luke Wilson's character in the movie Idiocracy.
I'd be wary of leaning too much on The Intercept for this whole story, in a broader sense. They have no particular information edge, or wealth of context. Probably think in terms of them writing about India with two local but young journalists and a UK editor.
Anyways, yes, chapter page of the stinkfest. Our Supreme Court is an embarrassment, but that isn't particularly news either. Goes well with our Congress and Executive branch.
Not likely. My own home state of Rio de Janeiro votes horribly horribly poorly every cycle. And its #6 in GDP per capita. It makes me depressed just to think of some of governors and congressmen elected.
One thing about these tapes though is that you can't read literally into some of what's said, some of it is blustering.
The man doing the recording (Sergio Machado) is calling his buddy politicians with the pretense that he's personally worried about his own arrest at some point in the future. So he says that the Prosecutor believes that he (Sergio) is the dirty money man for PMBD's head honchos - Calheiros, Juca, Sarney, etc. Juca and Calheiros' conversations convey a sense that they're trying to calm him about the prospects of this. Its not a desperate tone by Sergio, so not an urgent tone by the other side either. But there is some "we should have Lava Jato end here", "I'll talk to Calheiros, I'll talk to a Justice".
That the AG (Rodrigo Janot) has been selective in his timing an urgency, which indicates possibly political maneuvering to embarrass politician A or B, its true. That the Supreme Court has been even more selective (and generally slooooooow) is also true. But I'll admit that I'm not able to sit here and tell you exactly who's supposedly steering that ship if someone is, because everyone's taken some degree of heat. The second part is that no one so far has shown any ability to steer or slow any of the proceedings that can by undertaken the prosecutors and judge Moro down in Parana. Dilma's Justice Minister (Eduardo Cardozo) flew down there secretly (or tried) a couple of times, and it still didn't move them an inch. For any PMDB politician to say they can apply the brakes on that, that's the part that other columnists and I think is pure blustering.
The man doing the recording (Sergio Machado) is calling his buddy politicians with the pretense that he's personally worried about his own arrest at some point in the future. So he says that the Prosecutor believes that he (Sergio) is the dirty money man for PMBD's head honchos - Calheiros, Juca, Sarney, etc. Juca and Calheiros' conversations convey a sense that they're trying to calm him about the prospects of this. Its not a desperate tone by Sergio, so not an urgent tone by the other side either. But there is some "we should have Lava Jato end here", "I'll talk to Calheiros, I'll talk to a Justice".
That the AG (Rodrigo Janot) has been selective in his timing an urgency, which indicates possibly political maneuvering to embarrass politician A or B, its true. That the Supreme Court has been even more selective (and generally slooooooow) is also true. But I'll admit that I'm not able to sit here and tell you exactly who's supposedly steering that ship if someone is, because everyone's taken some degree of heat. The second part is that no one so far has shown any ability to steer or slow any of the proceedings that can by undertaken the prosecutors and judge Moro down in Parana. Dilma's Justice Minister (Eduardo Cardozo) flew down there secretly (or tried) a couple of times, and it still didn't move them an inch. For any PMDB politician to say they can apply the brakes on that, that's the part that other columnists and I think is pure blustering.
The Greenwald interview with Lula was embarrassing so I´d take his comment with a pinch of salt, but he makes a couple of decent points. The situation is fairly clear-cut anyway. The most important question is, what this means for the next election.
I was talking with a few Brazilians who just came from Brazil and they told me the militar should take over and arrest all the politicians and then they should have elections.
It sounds ridiculous but it's probably the only way to get rid of them. But my understanding is that the Brazilian military itself is corrupt.
That's a childish reaction. We've had that before, didn't go so well.
I know but if all the politicians are involved in corruption how to fix this problem? Democracy is the problem here.
I don't believe in "fixing" the problem. An uneducated and corrupt society gets corrupt politicians. At least the competing factions every now and then might try to govern well to increase their standing and power. Unchalleged authority is what I fear, and that's exactly what any dictatorship entails.
Brazilian people have the leaders they deserve, in my opinion. When they deserve better then I might be upset if democracy isn't providing it.
I agree with most of this.
There are no fixes. Everywhere people crave the strong hero leader who will simultaneously lead them from poverty and make the state a strong military power. And they are willing to let these heroes alter the balance of power between branches of government or between state and people. Either they are sure or they assume they won't be the ones getting hurt.
But I don't agree that people deserve the governments they get. Removing an entire system of corrupt parties requires very painful changes, and these changes might harm the majority the most in the short-term. Corruption exists in all levels of power and that fact is the self-serving logic for perpetual corruption.*
*I've been reading some really well-written anti-foodie essays (because of the praise for Bourdain, whom I viscerally hate, in the other thread) and it seems to have inspired me to change my writing style, but I'm not sure that last line makes any sense.
All my family in Brazil believe tomorrow would be better and they have one thing in common "hope" but the brazilians I know here in New Jersey hate the politicians and they want the military to take over until new elections. The problem is if the military decides to stay a bit longer.