UK General Election - 12th December 2019 | Con 365, Lab 203, LD 11, SNP 48, Other 23 - Tory Majority of 80

How do you intend to vote in the 2019 General Election if eligible?

  • Brexit Party

    Votes: 30 4.3%
  • Conservatives

    Votes: 73 10.6%
  • DUP

    Votes: 5 0.7%
  • Green

    Votes: 23 3.3%
  • Labour

    Votes: 355 51.4%
  • Liberal Democrats

    Votes: 58 8.4%
  • Plaid Cymru

    Votes: 3 0.4%
  • Sinn Fein

    Votes: 9 1.3%
  • SNP

    Votes: 19 2.8%
  • UKIP

    Votes: 6 0.9%
  • Independent

    Votes: 1 0.1%
  • Other (BNP, Change UK, UUP and anyone else that I have forgotten)

    Votes: 10 1.4%
  • Not voting

    Votes: 57 8.3%
  • Undecided

    Votes: 41 5.9%

  • Total voters
    690
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.

NinjaFletch

Full Member
Joined
Sep 30, 2009
Messages
19,818
I guess if the analysis is right that Leave votes in Labour seats are primarily drawn from non Labour voters then it still has the effect of splitting the brexit vote as much as it potentially does splitting the Labour vote.
 

nimic

something nice
Scout
Joined
Aug 2, 2006
Messages
31,534
Location
And I'm all out of bubblegum.
Good, it means that we can just get Brexit done. It's been on for too long, almost like the minute and a half it takes to microwave baked beans. It's time to get on with it, like waiting in traffic for too long we just need to hop the curb and drive on. Hurry up. Get. It. Done.

It's really simple, just like making any other kind of business deal. At least that's what me and my mates tell each other. I mean, it has to be simple right? If it was more complicated than that then it would mean me and my mates aren't smart enough to understand it, and we're not willing to admit that.
This post is way too complicated for me. Could you please distil it down to an easily remembered phrase, perhaps three words?
 

Fluctuation0161

Full Member
Joined
Aug 8, 2016
Messages
8,166
Location
Manchester
I guess if the analysis is right that Leave votes in Labour seats are primarily drawn from non Labour voters then it still has the effect of splitting the brexit vote as much as it potentially does splitting the Labour vote.
What analysis is this? I understood the opposite to be true.
 

Mr Pigeon

Illiterate Flying Rat
Scout
Joined
Mar 27, 2014
Messages
26,351
Location
bin
BBC uses old clip of Boris Johnson at cenotaph instead of video of his wreath gaffe
A three-year-old clip of the Tory Leader at the Cenotaph was broadcast on Breakfast this morning

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-bbc-uses-old-footage-20858947

I mean, this should not be a major issue (unless Corbyn had laid the wreath upside down), but it demonstrates the lengths the BBC will go to backup this Tory government.
I'm ok with the Mail having an agenda. Or the Guardian, Sky, ITV etc. But the BBC, a public broadcaster should only report the news - not create their own interpretation of it. There's dozens of examples of state news manipulating the truth over the years and none of them have been in nations you would call transparent.
 

sebsheep

Correctly predicted Italy to win Euro 2020
Joined
Jun 1, 2014
Messages
11,250
Location
Here
Is anyone able to link the video from the @Conservatives twitter account showing Corbyn getting his numbers wrong on how many GPs they promised and failed to employ? They seem to be doing everything they can to make themselves look daft at the moment.
 

Kaos

Full Member
Joined
May 6, 2007
Messages
31,832
Location
Ginseng Strip
I'm ok with the Mail having an agenda. Or the Guardian, Sky, ITV etc. But the BBC, a public broadcaster should only report the news - not create their own interpretation of it. There's dozens of examples of state news manipulating the truth over the years and none of them have been in nations you would call transparent.
I find it funny when those on the right accuse the BBC of having a leftist bias.

The truth is they’ve been a compromised institution the moment the Tories threatened to ‘reform’ it if they didn’t join the remaining cartel of right wing media outlets in towing their narrative.
 

Classical Mechanic

Full Member
Joined
Aug 25, 2014
Messages
35,216
Location
xG Zombie Nation
Only thing Farage hates is not being in the spotlight. It’s clear to me he’s started to panic now that his party are dropping in the polls.
I thought that too, looks like a bottle job. He's too lazy and fears another failure to run as a candidate and the Tories have told him to jog on so this is his only remaining play to give an illusion of control.
 

sammsky1

Pochettino's #1 fan
Joined
Feb 10, 2008
Messages
32,841
Location
London
I guess if the analysis is right that Leave votes in Labour seats are primarily drawn from non Labour voters then it still has the effect of splitting the brexit vote as much as it potentially does splitting the Labour vote.
Labour were never going to flip many tory seats with Corbyn in charge, so Brexit Party also not competing there makes little difference to Labour. Though it does harm Lib Dems.

Labours problem is still how to attract centre left Remain voters with Corbyn's policies.

Posted at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2019-50372495

Crunching the numbers - what does Brexit Party move mean?
Peter Barnes BBC political analyst

The Brexit Party’s decision to stand aside in constituencies the Conservatives won in 2017 should make it easier for them to hold on to those seats.
In marginals like St Ives and Mansfield, it ought to help them keep a bigger share of the pro-Leave vote.
However, to win a majority in the House of Commons, the Conservatives need to win more seats - not just hold onto what they have.
And in those places the presence of a Brexit Party candidate may get in the Conservatives’ way.
The best estimates suggest that 29 of the Conservatives top 50 targets, and 59 of the top 100, are in Labour-held seats that voted Leave in the referendum.
If the strategy is to target Leave voters in those places, it would probably better to have a clear run - without The Brexit Party.
 
Last edited:

EwanI Ted

Full Member
Joined
Feb 28, 2018
Messages
1,755
Labour were never going to flip many tory seats with Corbyn in charge, so Brexit Party also not competing there makes little difference to Labour. Though it does harm Lib Dems.

Labours problem is still how to attract moderate centre left's with Corbyn's policies.
Another factor is that it may focus the election narrative on Brexit, which is generally seen as bad for Labour, who prefer to talk about other domestic issues.
 

NinjaFletch

Full Member
Joined
Sep 30, 2009
Messages
19,818
Another factor is that it may focus the election narrative on Brexit, which is generally seen as bad for Labour, who prefer to talk about other domestic issues.
Potentially, but it might also tar the Conservatives with the no-deal Brexiteer fantasists brush and scare off more moderate voters.
 

Rooney24

Full Member
Joined
Nov 8, 2005
Messages
8,346
I thought that too, looks like a bottle job. He's too lazy and fears another failure to run as a candidate and the Tories have told him to jog on so this is his only remaining play to give an illusion of control.
And an Illusion is all it is. This effectively lets the Tories in again and maybe with enough seats to pass the deal that Nigel alledgedly hates so much.

If he had any balls he and the rest of them would be standing in every constitiuency as he had previously said. (And that is no pun intended on his historic Health issue !)
 

Maticmaker

Full Member
Joined
Nov 8, 2018
Messages
4,722
Did anyone seriously think Farage would stand a Brexit Party candidate in every seat?

Nigel knows the only way to be sure to get Brexit through following an election is for the Tories to be in power; however, they will lose some seats in the south to remain, so they need to make up that shortfall mostly in the north, they cannot do that without Brexit Party compliance.

Some Labour voters in the North with Leave tendencies might be tempted to vote Tory (holding their noses), but many more would vote Brexit if they could. Tories can now concentrate on their heartlands, Brexit Party will now 'home-in' on disgruntled Labour voters (and not just leavers) in both the North and the South who might have considered voting Tory if there were no Brexit Party candidate to vote for; now there is a clear signal, for Leavers in particular, but also other Labour voters who are not enamoured by Corbyn, on how to vote in a large majority of the Constituencies.

Of course all these 'tactical' voting schemes, leave or remain are OK in theory, but something else in practice, they all need a basic requirement to be effective and that is to convince people to believe they are not throwing their vote away. Farage started off with a make believe stand off to Boris, to try to avoid an air of over confidence, but now barely a week into the campaign he has been effective in his dexterity of shifting the emphasis; in not subjecting himself to scrutiny at the ballot box and now allowing the Tories collectively to 'stiffen the sinews and summon up the blood' and go out to fight the good fight, knowing TBP has their backs!

Love him or hate him, he is arguably the most influential Politician in the Country right now.
 

Abizzz

Full Member
Joined
Mar 28, 2014
Messages
7,644
How is the UK media killing off all this russian financing of the Tories? I've seen next to nothing on it.

Alexander Temerko 1.2 Million to the Tories
Lubow Tschernuchina 450K to the Tories
Alexander Lebedew unspecified.
Evgeny Lebedew unspecified.
 
Last edited:

SteveJ

all-round nice guy, aka Uncle Joe Kardashian
Scout
Joined
Oct 22, 2010
Messages
62,851
This post is way too complicated for me. Could you please distil it down to an easily remembered phrase, perhaps three words?
Beanz
Meanz
Brexit
 

Smores

Full Member
Joined
May 18, 2011
Messages
25,549
How is the UK media killing off all this russian financing of the Tories? I've seen next to nothing on it.

Alexander Temerko 1.2 Million to the Tories
Lubow Tschernuchina 450K to the Tories
Alexander Lebedew unspecified.
Evgeny Lebedew unspecified.
The UK media consists of right wing owned papers and a BBC petrified of the government. They'll say they don't have the facts so won't report it but is anyone going to tell me they wouldn't have done an hour long hugely publicised newsnight episode on it if it was Corbyn?

 

GloryHunter07

Full Member
Joined
Oct 11, 2007
Messages
12,152
There isn't a pact though is there? This is Farage acting independently it seems, could be wrong. Looks to me that the Tories wouldn't engage and he's saving face.
Yes exactly - farage has been in panic mode since Boris became PM and claimed the Brexit high ground. Desperate to get a “pact”, farage is trying to save face as you say.
 

Sweet Square

Full Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2013
Messages
23,734
Location
The Zone

Always worth saying that launching missiles after another country has already fired doesn't stop the scene from Terminator 2 from happening.
 

Paul the Wolf

Full Member
Joined
Apr 17, 2014
Messages
17,831
Location
France - can't win anything with Swedish turnips
Did anyone seriously think Farage would stand a Brexit Party candidate in every seat?

Nigel knows the only way to be sure to get Brexit through following an election is for the Tories to be in power; however, they will lose some seats in the south to remain, so they need to make up that shortfall mostly in the north, they cannot do that without Brexit Party compliance.

Some Labour voters in the North with Leave tendencies might be tempted to vote Tory (holding their noses), but many more would vote Brexit if they could. Tories can now concentrate on their heartlands, Brexit Party will now 'home-in' on disgruntled Labour voters (and not just leavers) in both the North and the South who might have considered voting Tory if there were no Brexit Party candidate to vote for; now there is a clear signal, for Leavers in particular, but also other Labour voters who are not enamoured by Corbyn, on how to vote in a large majority of the Constituencies.

Of course all these 'tactical' voting schemes, leave or remain are OK in theory, but something else in practice, they all need a basic requirement to be effective and that is to convince people to believe they are not throwing their vote away. Farage started off with a make believe stand off to Boris, to try to avoid an air of over confidence, but now barely a week into the campaign he has been effective in his dexterity of shifting the emphasis; in not subjecting himself to scrutiny at the ballot box and now allowing the Tories collectively to 'stiffen the sinews and summon up the blood' and go out to fight the good fight, knowing TBP has their backs!

Love him or hate him, he is arguably the most influential Politician in the Country right now.
Does anyone still believe a single word that comes out of Farage's mouth. Don't think he wanted to be humiliated, yet again, in a GE. Losing all those deposits could be costly.

Heard he was offered a peerage which he turned down last week, presumably for services to mendacity.
 

esmufc07

Brad
Scout
Joined
Aug 7, 2007
Messages
49,893
Location
Lake Jonathan Creek
I've always found the Trident debate really very odd. Common sense says it should be scrapped and the huge amount of money saved invested in better areas.

Can't wait to meet these guys again the run up to the election

 

BobbyManc

Full Member
Joined
Aug 2, 2012
Messages
7,750
Location
The Wall
Supports
Man City
About sums it up:

The Brexit Party and the Tories are for the most part ideologically congruous. Farage was once a Conservative member for ten years or so, but he's to the right of their traditional base (basically like the ERG members). It's no surprise that he's able to form an electoral pact with them under Johnson. On the other hand, the Lib Dems under Swinson basically represent the Tory party under Cameron. She is completely hostile to Corbyn and his policies and vice versa. An electoral pact is untenable because the ideological chasm is far too vast to be bridged by one flagship policy of stopping Brexit. Swinson knows the Lib Dems newfound donors who are pumping cash their way are those who have abandoned the Tory party. That well would quickly dry up if a pact formed with Labour, as would it also render null and void its ambition of winning over disaffected Conservative voters.
 

Mr Pigeon

Illiterate Flying Rat
Scout
Joined
Mar 27, 2014
Messages
26,351
Location
bin
I've always found the Trident debate really very odd. Common sense says it should be scrapped and the huge amount of money saved invested in better areas.

Can't wait to meet these guys again the run up to the election

Nothing wrong with a bit of diversity.
 

balaks

Full Member
Joined
Feb 25, 2014
Messages
15,335
Location
Northern Ireland
Supports
Tottenham Hotspur
Hopefully that's the end of Farage bring a thing. Bottled it. Couldn't win a seat if his life depended on it the pathetic fecker.
 

balaks

Full Member
Joined
Feb 25, 2014
Messages
15,335
Location
Northern Ireland
Supports
Tottenham Hotspur
Did anyone seriously think Farage would stand a Brexit Party candidate in every seat?

Nigel knows the only way to be sure to get Brexit through following an election is for the Tories to be in power; however, they will lose some seats in the south to remain, so they need to make up that shortfall mostly in the north, they cannot do that without Brexit Party compliance.

Some Labour voters in the North with Leave tendencies might be tempted to vote Tory (holding their noses), but many more would vote Brexit if they could. Tories can now concentrate on their heartlands, Brexit Party will now 'home-in' on disgruntled Labour voters (and not just leavers) in both the North and the South who might have considered voting Tory if there were no Brexit Party candidate to vote for; now there is a clear signal, for Leavers in particular, but also other Labour voters who are not enamoured by Corbyn, on how to vote in a large majority of the Constituencies.

Of course all these 'tactical' voting schemes, leave or remain are OK in theory, but something else in practice, they all need a basic requirement to be effective and that is to convince people to believe they are not throwing their vote away. Farage started off with a make believe stand off to Boris, to try to avoid an air of over confidence, but now barely a week into the campaign he has been effective in his dexterity of shifting the emphasis; in not subjecting himself to scrutiny at the ballot box and now allowing the Tories collectively to 'stiffen the sinews and summon up the blood' and go out to fight the good fight, knowing TBP has their backs!

Love him or hate him, he is arguably the most influential Politician in the Country right now.
:houllier: Remind us all again how many seats Farage has won in his entire career?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.