United Hour - The Falsest Nine Of All

[Rood]

This week's line up is me, Colm (@Duafc ) and first appearance for @Raees .
We try to stay positive while reliving a trio of crap performances against Astana, West Ham and Rochdale.
Main debate is all on Marcus Rashford and we focus on the rest of the homegrown crop before looking ahead to Monday's big match with Arsenal.

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[Raees]

Thanks for having me on was a pleasure to chat with you lads - keep up the good work!

 

[Rood]

Thanks for having me on was a pleasure to chat with you lads - keep up the good work!

good to have you on mate - even if we do disagree completely on Rashford !

and this is the Tuanzebe chant which I mentioned that was on repeat in The Red Army section vs Astana and Im sure against Rochdale as well

@12OunceEpilogue did also do the perfect job of inserting it into this episode

 

[Alex99]

Great ep lads. Enjoyed the Rashford chat in particular. I've lots of thoughts on the Ole situation and future direction of the club but it's essay amounts so I'll spare you them.

Don't want this to seem like a pile-on on @Raees because I thought it was a great debut on the pod, but I do disagree almost entirely with what was said about Rashford.

The Ronaldo comparison I thought was particularly unfair. His decision making is an issue, but it was said on the pod that Ronaldo's was spot on when he was 18, yet acknowledged that Ronaldo overplayed everything. Surely overplaying everything, which Ronaldo absolutely did for a long, long time, is an example of poor decision making? He actively chose to go for an extra stepover or cut back instead of whipping in a cross or taking shot very often.

I'm glad the "Ronaldo or Macheda" lens of judging players was brought up because that does happen far too often, and while I'm not saying Rashford is going to become a Ronaldo level player, I do think Ronaldo's impact in his first few seasons is overstated because of how good he was in his last few, and how good he's been since.

@Duafc 's analysis about Rashford's expenditure of energy I thought was good. I remember reading about Fergie's frustrations with Rooney in his first few seasons because he'd Traveller himself chasing literally everything, and while that never really went away, it was something that Rooney seemed to manage himself much better as his career progressed showing it can be developed. Funnily enough, bad touches were a big criticism of Rooney too.

On the topic of wages with Rashford, I just think that ultimately it's really unfair to judge a player based on what the club has agreed to pay them. Same goes for transfer fees. You want your players to perform regardless of their wages or fee, and at the end of the day, if players aren't justifying their wages, they'll be moved on (in a well run club at least).

I did agree in part when @Raees said we need to simplify Rashford's game, but not the extent of making him a right wing workhorse. I think he needs reminding, or perhaps made clear to him of what his job his on the pitch.

This ties in with what said about the apparent lack of coaching, because I'm not sure he has been told anything like that. His job when he's the central striker is to make sure he's making the runs and getting himself into the positions to score. It's frustrating for him to not have the service, but as long as he's making the most of the chances he gets when they do come, he should known that it's not on him for not scoring if the service is lacklustre.

It is disappointing to see him getting wound up within the first few minutes of a match as he did against West Ham, especially as it's something that negatively affects his performance. I do think he's suffering from the absence of a more senior striker, because it's put a lot of unnecessary pressure on his shoulders, and something I absolutely think Fergie would have avoided.

 

[shamans]

Great ep lads. Enjoyed the Rashford chat in particular. I've lots of thoughts on the Ole situation and future direction of the club but it's essay amounts so I'll spare you them.

Don't want this to seem like a pile-on on @Raees because I thought it was a great debut on the pod, but I do disagree almost entirely with what was said about Rashford.

The Ronaldo comparison I thought was particularly unfair. His decision making is an issue, but it was said on the pod that Ronaldo's was spot on when he was 18, yet acknowledged that Ronaldo overplayed everything. Surely overplaying everything, which Ronaldo absolutely did for a long, long time, is an example of poor decision making? He actively chose to go for an extra stepover or cut back instead of whipping in a cross or taking shot very often.

I'm glad the "Ronaldo or Macheda" lens of judging players was brought up because that does happen far too often, and while I'm not saying Rashford is going to become a Ronaldo level player, I do think Ronaldo's impact in his first few seasons is overstated because of how good he was in his last few, and how good he's been since.

@Duafc 's analysis about Rashford's expenditure of energy I thought was good. I remember reading about Fergie's frustrations with Rooney in his first few seasons because he'd Traveller himself chasing literally everything, and while that never really went away, it was something that Rooney seemed to manage himself much better as his career progressed showing it can be developed. Funnily enough, bad touches were a big criticism of Rooney too.

On the topic of wages with Rashford, I just think that ultimately it's really unfair to judge a player based on what the club has agreed to pay them. Same goes for transfer fees. You want your players to perform regardless of their wages or fee, and at the end of the day, if players aren't justifying their wages, they'll be moved on (in a well run club at least).

I did agree in part when @Raees said we need to simplify Rashford's game, but not the extent of making him a right wing workhorse. I think he needs reminding, or perhaps made clear to him of what his job his on the pitch.

This ties in with what said about the apparent lack of coaching, because I'm not sure he has been told anything like that. His job when he's the central striker is to make sure he's making the runs and getting himself into the positions to score. It's frustrating for him to not have the service, but as long as he's making the most of the chances he gets when they do come, he should known that it's not on him for not scoring if the service is lacklustre.

It is disappointing to see him getting wound up within the first few minutes of a match as he did against West Ham, especially as it's something that negatively affects his performance. I do think he's suffering from the absence of a more senior striker, because it's put a lot of unnecessary pressure on his shoulders, and something I absolutely think Fergie would have avoided.

The issue with Ronaldo or Macheda lense is that Rashdord is currently being treated as that "Ronaldo" level player. A big contract, playing upfront with the license to take 30 yard punts or free kicks. Unlike other youngsters it's almost as if Rashford has been given the role of the "star of the team".

That I aside, you can say Ronaldo's first seasons were overrated or not but you just knew this player was special. I have never thought this about Rashford from his first few games. I thought this guy has really good finishing but overall being a special player? Time would tell and so far he hasn't really improved from his first season on has he.

I think the only reason Ronaldo was brought up was because of the fact how people say Rashford will improve his decision making and then become a beast. Ronaldo's decision making was never this bad and besides he had the skill to still be useful in some ways. You just knew with Ronaldo it's a matter of time.

Also, I think Rashford genuinely isn't that skillful beyond a really good shot, pace to burn and at times decent dribbling. He gets massively overrated on here due to scoring goals.

I still think he can be a good player but not the star of the team or anything close to it. I'm not sure being a winger is best for him but he really does struggle as a striker with a team that doesn't offer him space.

 

[Lentwood]

I'm not really sure you chaps understand 'expected goals'. You say 'I'm not sure why that is' in relation to our expected goals against being far lower than the number of goals we've actually conceded.

You speculate about whether this is down to structure....that shows you've not really understood it. Expected goals is based on analysing chances. Not how those chances come about, but the number of times, reflected as a percentage, that a player would score with an effort on goal from any given position.

Take the West Ham game - on expected goals we should have won this game by a clear goal. Maguire and Mata both missed chances players would score more often than they would miss. The two goals West Ham scored came from 'chances' with an expected goal % of 10% and 22% respectively.

This is ONLY effected by two factors;

- the quality of the finish
- the quality of the goalkeeping

Ergo....either opposition players are over-performing against us with regard finishing right now OR our goalkeeping is below average.

 

[Mainoldo]

Great podcast. Loved the Rashford talk too.

 

[Raees]

I'm not really sure you chaps understand 'expected goals'. You say 'I'm not sure why that is' in relation to our expected goals against being far lower than the number of goals we've actually conceded.

You speculate about whether this is down to structure....that shows you've not really understood it. Expected goals is based on analysing chances. Not how those chances come about, but the number of times, reflected as a percentage, that a player would score with an effort on goal from any given position.

Take the West Ham game - on expected goals we should have won this game by a clear goal. Maguire and Mata both missed chances players would score more often than they would miss. The two goals West Ham scored came from 'chances' with an expected goal % of 10% and 22% respectively.

This is ONLY effected by two factors;

- the quality of the finish
- the quality of the goalkeeping

Ergo....either opposition players are over-performing against us with regard finishing right now OR our goalkeeping is below average.

I think the point Colm was trying to make was that XG doesn't take into account the nuances and momentum of a game, whereby even if you're restricting the other side's quality of chances.. if there are phases of games where you switch off, or you're looking or feeling poor (either in that moment or there is a feeling over the club that you're not performing) - despite being the better side on paper and statistically, the Gods of football will punish you despite overall you having the better chances. We're talking about a very dynamic sport, with multiple bodies, influence of a crowd, momentum etc.. quality of chances isn't necessarily always reflecting whose been the better side, you also have to take into account the expectations placed on both side relative to their ability.

Based on pure statistical analysis United should have beaten West Ham, but football is more complex than just relying on XG (as useful as it is) and ergo no one was that surprised that we lost that game, nor will you find many who would argue that the result was massively unjust.

 

[InspiRED]

Nice one lads, great podcast. A lot of food for thought.

'The falsest nine of all'.

 

[Amarsdd]

more than anything Rashford is a prototypical "confidence player".

 

[VanGaalyTime]

Nice Pod guys! Agree with Raees in that Rashford is not a player we can pin all our hopes on right now. I'd also like to see him on the right as he's more than capable of being a threat from there. Although it's a little unfair to compare him with Ronaldo.

Ronaldo was allowed time to grow into a team that was already successful. And although most knew immediately after the Bolton match we had an immense talent, he was still making mistakes on the ball. Rashford can still grow to become a much better player. I also think a lot of his issues come down to coaching. Each of our attacking players has generally looked useless in recent years. Do we even give instructions to our attackers?

 

[Lentwood]

I think the point Colm was trying to make was that XG doesn't take into account the nuances and momentum of a game, whereby even if you're restricting the other side's quality of chances.. if there are phases of games where you switch off, or you're looking or feeling poor (either in that moment or there is a feeling over the club that you're not performing) - despite being the better side on paper and statistically, the Gods of football will punish you despite overall you having the better chances. We're talking about a very dynamic sport, with multiple bodies, influence of a crowd, momentum etc.. quality of chances isn't necessarily always reflecting whose been the better side, you also have to take into account the expectations placed on both side relative to their ability.

Based on pure statistical analysis United should have beaten West Ham, but football is more complex than just relying on XG (as useful as it is) and ergo no one was that surprised that we lost that game, nor will you find many who would argue that the result was massively unjust.

I'm not saying expected goals is a perfect metric for identifying conclusively which team deserved to win a football match but I do think it's a good metric for measuring your defensive solidity. We gave West Ham two rare efforts that 7/10 and 9/10 would not have resulted in a goal. I think it's fair to conclude as a result that in a PL away game that's indicative that there's actually not much wrong with your defending or defensive structure (in relation to that game in particular and this season, if you look at the wider xG trend for our games)

 

[Raees]

I'm not saying expected goals is a perfect metric for identifying conclusively which team deserved to win a football match but I do think it's a good metric for measuring your defensive solidity. We gave West Ham two rare efforts that 7/10 and 9/10 would not have resulted in a goal. I think it's fair to conclude as a result that in a PL away game that's indicative that there's actually not much wrong with your defending or defensive structure (in relation to that game in particular and this season, if you look at the wider xG trend for our games)

I don’t think anyone is saying our defence is a major issue more that the problem with our attack basically leads to an increasingly negative mindset which leads to a war of attrition and then ultimately we end up conceding despite our defence handling everything up to that point.

Eventually if the other side realises you’re not really hurting them or you’re struggling they’re going to break out of their shell and eventually hurt you and the laws of momentum dictate that even if that is a pot shot from distance it’ll probably find it’s way in. Doesn’t mean as the side who has conceded you should just look at that as bad luck especially when it happens regularly and also you’re a side acknowledged to be struggling in general.

 

[shamans]

more than anything Rashford is a prototypical "confidence player".

I mean so is Lingard.

 

[tomaldinho1]

I'm not really sure you chaps understand 'expected goals'. You say 'I'm not sure why that is' in relation to our expected goals against being far lower than the number of goals we've actually conceded.

You speculate about whether this is down to structure....that shows you've not really understood it. Expected goals is based on analysing chances. Not how those chances come about, but the number of times, reflected as a percentage, that a player would score with an effort on goal from any given position.

Take the West Ham game - on expected goals we should have won this game by a clear goal. Maguire and Mata both missed chances players would score more often than they would miss. The two goals West Ham scored came from 'chances' with an expected goal % of 10% and 22% respectively.

This is ONLY effected by two factors;

- the quality of the finish
- the quality of the goalkeeping

Ergo....either opposition players are over-performing against us with regard finishing right now OR our goalkeeping is below average.

I'm not sure how accurate xG is, mainly because I don't fully understand it. For example - is it taking into account Yarmolenko being left footed, it being a half volley and having space, the fact it's Maguire who shoots from the corner, does it factor in Mata's height/pace or Cresswell's record from FKs vs DDGs record saving them from a similar area? I understand it as a mass of data where you can say statistically 78% (for example) of players score from this position. There are surely too many variables at an individual skill level for it to have real accuracy. I might be wrong but that's how it seems to me.

Separately there's also a different conversation about how DDG has never recovered post WC and his form is now human again. Prime DDG doesn't save Yarmolenko's shot but definitely keeps out the FK.

 

[Alex99]

@shamans

Just going to pick out a few of your points there to respond to:

Rashford has been given the role of the "star of the team".

This isn't Rashford's fault though, which is my point and I've possibly failed to make it particularly clear. It was raised on the episode by @Raees that Rashford's been horribly mismanaged, which is very true, and him being made "star of the team" is a huge part of that mismanagement.

One massive between Rashford and Ronaldo is that Ronaldo was able to develop while the bulk of the creative and goal scoring pressure was on the likes of van Nistelrooy, Saha, Giggs, and Scholes, and was later shared with the likes of Rooney, Tevez and Berbatov.

Rashford quite literally found himself in the team because we had no one else we could rely on. From his first full season in the senior side, the pressure has been very firmly on him to perform at a high level, week in, week out.

you can say Ronaldo's first seasons were overrated or not but you just knew this player was special.

This may be true for you, but I remember the general opinion of Ronaldo for a good two or three seasons being fairly mixed. There was a general acknowledgement of his obvious potential, but there was also a growing frustration that he was just another showpony with no end-product. He began to put all of that to bed in 06/07, and completed the job in 07/08, but I'm just not on board with the idea that in 2003 and 2004 especially, that people knew Ronaldo was going to turn into the best player in the world.

I think the only reason Ronaldo was brought up was because of the fact how people say Rashford will improve his decision making and then become a beast.

Does anyone say this anymore? Has anyone said anything like that for the last two seasons? Rashford has become one of our biggest scapegoats. While we certainly can't say whether he will improve his decision making, or even how good he will be if he does, the only players Rashford has been directly compared to over the last 18 months or so have been the likes of Danny Welbeck.

I won't disagree that the initial hype surrounding Rashford was that he would become a Ronaldo-level player, but that had been largely tempered by the end of Mourinho's first season, and almost extinguished by the end of his second.

I think Rashford genuinely isn't that skillful beyond a really good shot, pace to burn and at times decent dribbling. He gets massively overrated on here due to scoring goals.

There's not much to disagree with here. He's a victim of the impact he made when he first entered the team, if anything. He created expectations that he possibly, and maybe probably, can't live up to.

I do think he's a supremely talented player, and having a good shot, pace, and being a good dribbler are absolutely the attributes you want to cultivate in an attacking player. As @Duafc hinted at in the episode, I'm not sure Rashford's necessarily got the discipline to be our main, and lone centre-forward, but I do think he's certainly got the attributes and potential to be an incredibly effective and extremely productive attacking outlet for us.

 

[Alex99]

I'm not saying expected goals is a perfect metric for identifying conclusively which team deserved to win a football match but I do think it's a good metric for measuring your defensive solidity. We gave West Ham two rare efforts that 7/10 and 9/10 would not have resulted in a goal. I think it's fair to conclude as a result that in a PL away game that's indicative that there's actually not much wrong with your defending or defensive structure (in relation to that game in particular and this season, if you look at the wider xG trend for our games)

To be fair to the guys, they also brought up our control of the game as a factor with the xG, and the momentum shifts that come with a lack of control. I think the point they were getting at is that xG doesn't take into account the unmeasurable metrics of crowd influence and momentum. A ball falling to a player from the corner of the box on the half volley may have a low xG, and nine times out of ten that chance won't result in a goal. However, if the opposition has failed to control the game, you're playing at home with momentum firmly with you, and the crowd are well and truly behind you, as we see time and time again in football, those circumstances make players pull off the seemingly impossible.

So, as United have a proven inability to control games and keep our opposition under sustained pressure throughout a match, we invite those circumstances, and as a result, players are scoring shots with low xG against us with a higher frequency than you'd expect.

There's also the distinct possibility that De Gea is still actually a bit naff.

 

[2 man midfield]

@Raees knows his stuff. Always some great analysis on these.

 

[Alex99]

@Raees knows his stuff. Always some great analysis on these.

I'm really enjoying the analysis of the team/games/club as a whole on these podcasts. I enjoy RedVoices and RantCast too and like that all three podcasts tend to offer slightly different perspectives on things, but I think UnitedHour is leading the pack at the moment as I feel the other two have panels that just agree with each other for the most part so there's no real debate or discussion.

 

[Lentwood]

I'm not sure how accurate xG is, mainly because I don't fully understand it. For example - is it taking into account Yarmolenko being left footed, it being a half volley and having space, the fact it's Maguire who shoots from the corner, does it factor in Mata's height/pace or Cresswell's record from FKs vs DDGs record saving them from a similar area? I understand it as a mass of data where you can say statistically 78% (for example) of players score from this position. There are surely too many variables at an individual skill level for it to have real accuracy. I might be wrong but that's how it seems to me.

Separately there's also a different conversation about how DDG has never recovered post WC and his form is now human again. Prime DDG doesn't save Yarmolenko's shot but definitely keeps out the FK.

It’s a good question tbh and not being an expert in xG I don’t know the answer.

I do know xG works out expected goals for individual players as well as teams and the reason it’s such a good metric is that over a long enough period of time, players and teams usually regress to the mean

Fact is, without going full RAWK, we’re 2nd in the xG-adjusted table. Now, I get what actually happens is more important than what ought to have happened but it’s a positive indication that keep doing what we are doing and we will win football matches

 

[shamans]

@shamans

Just going to pick out a few of your points there to respond to:



This isn't Rashford's fault though, which is my point and I've possibly failed to make it particularly clear. It was raised on the episode by @Raees that Rashford's been horribly mismanaged, which is very true, and him being made "star of the team" is a huge part of that mismanagement.

One massive between Rashford and Ronaldo is that Ronaldo was able to develop while the bulk of the creative and goal scoring pressure was on the likes of van Nistelrooy, Saha, Giggs, and Scholes, and was later shared with the likes of Rooney, Tevez and Berbatov.

Rashford quite literally found himself in the team because we had no one else we could rely on. From his first full season in the senior side, the pressure has been very firmly on him to perform at a high level, week in, week out.



This may be true for you, but I remember the general opinion of Ronaldo for a good two or three seasons being fairly mixed. There was a general acknowledgement of his obvious potential, but there was also a growing frustration that he was just another showpony with no end-product. He began to put all of that to bed in 06/07, and completed the job in 07/08, but I'm just not on board with the idea that in 2003 and 2004 especially, that people knew Ronaldo was going to turn into the best player in the world.



Does anyone say this anymore? Has anyone said anything like that for the last two seasons? Rashford has become one of our biggest scapegoats. While we certainly can't say whether he will improve his decision making, or even how good he will be if he does, the only players Rashford has been directly compared to over the last 18 months or so have been the likes of Danny Welbeck.

I won't disagree that the initial hype surrounding Rashford was that he would become a Ronaldo-level player, but that had been largely tempered by the end of Mourinho's first season, and almost extinguished by the end of his second.



There's not much to disagree with here. He's a victim of the impact he made when he first entered the team, if anything. He created expectations that he possibly, and maybe probably, can't live up to.

I do think he's a supremely talented player, and having a good shot, pace, and being a good dribbler are absolutely the attributes you want to cultivate in an attacking player. As @Duafc hinted at in the episode, I'm not sure Rashford's necessarily got the discipline to be our main, and lone centre-forward, but I do think he's certainly got the attributes and potential to be an incredibly effective and extremely productive attacking outlet for us.

Well yes, it's not Rashfords fault but then we both agree on this? He isn't that sort of player and wont properly strive in this star role. He is being mismanaged alright. He needs to be a part of the team and focus on playing to his strengths helping the team. Not be the focal point.

I didn't know Ronaldo would be the best player in the world but the only other player who gave me that Ronaldo level of hype was/has been Paul Pogba. You look at Pogba and even when he struggles you just know he can a monster of a player if he gets going.

As for your last point, I am in agreement. Rashford can be that attacking outlet if he really works hard on his game. I am not sure if that would manifest on the wings or as a workhorse type of striker. I feel giving Rashford that Rooney or Ronaldo role is not the way forward.

 

[redIndianDevil]

I'm not really sure you chaps understand 'expected goals'. You say 'I'm not sure why that is' in relation to our expected goals against being far lower than the number of goals we've actually conceded.

You speculate about whether this is down to structure....that shows you've not really understood it. Expected goals is based on analysing chances. Not how those chances come about, but the number of times, reflected as a percentage, that a player would score with an effort on goal from any given position.

Take the West Ham game - on expected goals we should have won this game by a clear goal. Maguire and Mata both missed chances players would score more often than they would miss. The two goals West Ham scored came from 'chances' with an expected goal % of 10% and 22% respectively.

This is ONLY effected by two factors;

- the quality of the finish
- the quality of the goalkeeping

Ergo....either opposition players are over-performing against us with regard finishing right now OR our goalkeeping is below average.

This xG statistical analysis needs to die, anyone who watched the game will clearly say West Ham deserved to win the game. We did not create many clear chances, Mata with his pace is never reaching that goal 10/10 times, only if gets a telepathic message from the passer, he might score that chance.

 

[Rood]

I'm not really sure you chaps understand 'expected goals'. You say 'I'm not sure why that is' in relation to our expected goals against being far lower than the number of goals we've actually conceded.

You speculate about whether this is down to structure....that shows you've not really understood it. Expected goals is based on analysing chances. Not how those chances come about, but the number of times, reflected as a percentage, that a player would score with an effort on goal from any given position.

Take the West Ham game - on expected goals we should have won this game by a clear goal. Maguire and Mata both missed chances players would score more often than they would miss. The two goals West Ham scored came from 'chances' with an expected goal % of 10% and 22% respectively.

This is ONLY effected by two factors;

- the quality of the finish
- the quality of the goalkeeping

Ergo....either opposition players are over-performing against us with regard finishing right now OR our goalkeeping is below average.

Of course we understand xG, not sure if you listened to the episode a couple of week ago? xG was the main subject!

There are more than 2 factors at play as well, it's not just the goalkeeper who can prevent a goal - plain old luck is also a factor and we have not had much this season.

Plus I can accept the odd team overperforming against us but its now 4 matches where we have conceeded 1 and even 2 goals when xG suggests it should have been a clean sheet each time (Eventhough DDG has not been on top form, I wouldnt say its been below average) - so I was just trying to come up with a reason for this anomaly. Hopefully it evens itself out anyway.

 

[Rood]

I'm really enjoying the analysis of the team/games/club as a whole on these podcasts. I enjoy RedVoices and RantCast too and like that all three podcasts tend to offer slightly different perspectives on things, but I think UnitedHour is leading the pack at the moment as I feel the other two have panels that just agree with each other for the most part so there's no real debate or discussion.

Glad you are enjoying it, we do try to get different viewpoints to debate. Not heard of RedVoices, have listened to Rantcast many times but not for a while

 

[Alex99]

Glad you are enjoying it, we do try to get different viewpoints to debate. Not heard of RedVoices, have listened to Rantcast many times but not for a while

I think Paul is basically done with RantCast but does it because he's really good mates with Ed and he still wants to do it.

 

[Raees]

Great ep lads. Enjoyed the Rashford chat in particular. I've lots of thoughts on the Ole situation and future direction of the club but it's essay amounts so I'll spare you them.

Don't want this to seem like a pile-on on @Raees because I thought it was a great debut on the pod, but I do disagree almost entirely with what was said about Rashford.

The Ronaldo comparison I thought was particularly unfair. His decision making is an issue, but it was said on the pod that Ronaldo's was spot on when he was 18, yet acknowledged that Ronaldo overplayed everything. Surely overplaying everything, which Ronaldo absolutely did for a long, long time, is an example of poor decision making? He actively chose to go for an extra stepover or cut back instead of whipping in a cross or taking shot very often.

There is a difference between poor decision making due to over-indulgence (which can also prove to be a massive issue if of itself if unchecked) versus lacking the intelligence of how to actually beat players with the tricks you have in your locker. No point being able to do a flip flap, step over etc, if you don't actually know when to use it and not being great at judging defenders body shape, judging distance between you, them and the ball and then lacking the close control under pressure to beat them.

Ronaldo at 18 was already a world class ball-carrier, in fact, already one of the greatest ball wizards in the history of the game.. his problem was he knew this all too well and wanted to beat every man and his dog.

Rashford's problem is - he thinks he's a good dribbler because he knows how to do the tricks, he doesn't actually know how to use them in actual gameplay on a consistent basis so he's way behind Ronaldo at 18 in this respect. Hence the call from me to simplify his game and not be tempted to use the tricks unless in limited circumstances.

I'm glad the "Ronaldo or Macheda" lens of judging players was brought up because that does happen far too often, and while I'm not saying Rashford is going to become a Ronaldo level player, I do think Ronaldo's impact in his first few seasons is overstated because of how good he was in his last few, and how good he's been since.

Ronaldo gets vastly underrated for his performances in those first few seasons. He came into an ageing side, playing abroad, put in a brilliant Euro 2004 performance, a key factor in his side getting to the final, giving Ashley Cole a run for his money in numerous encounters (best defensive full back of the noughties aside from Maldini). Plus if you go back and watch his full performances, you'll realise he was an outstanding talent who created excitement every time he was in possession. He might not have had the outcomes and efficiency, but he showcased his 'class' on a regular basis. There is no way you go from shit footballer to 5 time Ballon D'or winner... he was generational talent even at this young age, just needed fine-tuning.

On the topic of wages with Rashford, I just think that ultimately it's really unfair to judge a player based on what the club has agreed to pay them. Same goes for transfer fees. You want your players to perform regardless of their wages or fee, and at the end of the day, if players aren't justifying their wages, they'll be moved on (in a well run club at least).

The point on wages was this is a huge problem in the mismanagement of Rashford. It is used to make Rashford feel valued and that he's a top player. He's not a top player, far from it and by making him feel like a superstar.. we are destroying his career.

I did agree in part when @Raees said we need to simplify Rashford's game, but not the extent of making him a right wing workhorse. I think he needs reminding, or perhaps made clear to him of what his job his on the pitch.

This ties in with what said about the apparent lack of coaching, because I'm not sure he has been told anything like that. His job when he's the central striker is to make sure he's making the runs and getting himself into the positions to score. It's frustrating for him to not have the service, but as long as he's making the most of the chances he gets when they do come, he should known that it's not on him for not scoring if the service is lacklustre.

It is disappointing to see him getting wound up within the first few minutes of a match as he did against West Ham, especially as it's something that negatively affects his performance. I do think he's suffering from the absence of a more senior striker, because it's put a lot of unnecessary pressure on his shoulders, and something I absolutely think Fergie would have avoided.

If you look at someone like Abraham, whether or not he goes on to make it, he moves and holds the ball up like a natural striker, he finishes like a natural striker. With Rashford it is all forced. In terms of position, winger or second striker will be his best position or as a backup striker who comes on to stretch the game on the counter. He's never going to have the hold up play and intelligence to play as a 9 for a top top side IMO. Fergie would never have fuelled his ego to this extent and he'd have been a squad player max in a Fergie set up.

Right wing for me would help take away his tendency to shoot at any given opportunity to cut in, personally I think James and Martial are better on the left than him and we lack a right winger. I think an underrated quality Rashford possesses is his delivery, he's a decent crosser.. so I wouldn't mind seeing him become more of a supplier and help fix what is a broken flank for United and team up with AWB.

 

[Sparky Rhiwabon]

It’s a good question tbh and not being an expert in xG I don’t know the answer.

I do know xG works out expected goals for individual players as well as teams and the reason it’s such a good metric is that over a long enough period of time, players and teams usually regress to the mean

Fact is, without going full RAWK, we’re 2nd in the xG-adjusted table. Now, I get what actually happens is more important than what ought to have happened but it’s a positive indication that keep doing what we are doing and we will win football matches

xG is nonsense tbh

 

[Bastian]

Great title lads. The best pod yet I think. Agree with Raees on Ronaldo. I also thought first time I saw him (that friendly) that he would become the best player in the world (although not a 50-60 annual goal machine). He immediately looked phenomenal.

I'm in the same boat as Colm - I don't think Ole has got it but at the same time I can't see how changing manager now would lead to anything positive, long-term. However, if things continue to unravel, we might find ourselves needing another interim fix. It's a much repeated thing (especially by myself) but an authentic DoF is a necessary structural change before anything fruitful can happen long-term.

Also, wasn't it on Ole's watch that Jones' contract was extended. Same with Mata (I was more OK with that as he's a professional and has experience, but his performances this season have been well below par). Ole's not been as ruthless as he could be. The most ballsy thing from him so far I think has been elevating Tuanzebe's status to third in the pecking order at centre back.

With regards to xG, it would be interesting to see what our xG is once we're a goal up in a game. Which comes down to our emperor's new clothes. There are no identifiable patterns of attacking play. It really is make it up as you go along. All this talk of attacking football, United way, it's all bogus. We've even got a thread here asking if people would sacrifice points for performances, when in reality we are getting neither.

 

[buckooo1978]

that was a good listen

I think you all make some good points

I feel for Rashford to be fair. He's never claimed to be a new Ronaldo or in the same category as an M'Bappe profile player.

Sure he gets a relatively huge wage but Rashford can't be blamed for wanting a good deal relative to his teammates. If the club wanted to pay appropriately they shouldn't have turned into a circus the last 7 years.

Colm makes a really valid point on terms of Solskjaer's ability to improve players. As much as we love Ole he hasn't improved anyone and we have no coherent attacking plan.

Rashford is the spearhead of a really ineffective attack and he looked exhausted at the start of the West Ham game. His injury doesn't seem a surprise as he's played through injury and has run his balls off in games chasing long balls

a coach like Poch might see the development of Rashford. He might not be a top top striker but I still expect him to average 15/20 a season minimum with the right development/support

on Ronaldo that was a special debut and you could see the raw materials were there in terms of lightening pace, incredible skill but things like his decision making came later on. Up until about 2006 I expected Rooney to be the better player

 

[Alex99]

Colm makes a really valid point on terms of Solskjaer's ability to improve players. As much as we love Ole he hasn't improved anyone and we have no coherent attacking plan.

Rashford is the spearhead of a really ineffective attack and he looked exhausted at the start of the West Ham game. His injury doesn't seem a surprise as he's played through injury and has run his balls off in games chasing long balls

a coach like Poch might see the development of Rashford. He might not be a top top striker but I still expect him to average 15/20 a season minimum with the right development/support

I don't think it's a massive indictment of Ole tha the hasn't massively improved anyone. I disagree that we haven't seen improvements, but as was mentioned on the pod, it's difficult to know exactly why certain players improved. I think Martial's improvement can likely be chalked up to him no longer literally hating the manager, but I do think Solskjaer has been able to bring McTominay along. Under Mourinho I thought McTominay was just another young, workhorse midfielder, that'd probably end up at an Everton-like club in a couple of seasons after we bought some better quality, but since Ole's arrived he seems much more assured on the ball, and more confident in trying things going forward, while continuing to develop his defensive abilities.

The biggest issue with Ole, I think, isn't a lack of attacking plan either. I think we absolutely have an attacking blueprint now, and one akin to the sort of style we, as a fan base, have been screaming for ever since Fergie retired (and probably a bit during his final years too). I think the biggest issue Ole has is a lack of ideas on what to do about that plan, when he knows, as does everyone else, that the players he currently has at his disposal are not up to the job.

He's tried square pegs in round holes and it didn't work, which is why we saw Lukaku and Sanchez leave despite bringing in no real replacements. He's now trying to adapt the system, but can't figure out how to make it work with the players he's got left. Mata and Matic are never going to suit the system he wants to play, but after Woodward's failure to keep Herrera, the only other real option we've got in midfield is Fred, who has still yet to really show why he was ever signed in the first place.

There's perhaps a misplaced faith in Rashford to spearhead the attack, and as you say, it's been very ineffective, but the only other option Ole has at the moment is to give that responsibility to a 17-year-old. From a personal standpoint, I'm already very close to the point where I believe our best option for the remainder of the season is to just say, "feck it, play the kids", because if we're going to be shit and disappointing, we may as well be shit and disappointing without playing Jones, Rojo, Young, Matic and Mata, but I know from a developmental standpoint that it could also do the young players far more harm than good, particularly if results don't improve, which is why I understand the apparent reluctance at time to just chuck the likes of Gomes and Greenwood in the starting line-up each week.

 

[Alex99]

@Raees I think we're actually a bit more on the same page regarding Ronaldo/Rashford than I initially thought, although I do still think you're overstating the perception the fanbase had of him early on a bit, but it is subjective and I can't really disagree with anything you've said.

You have slipped a bit into the "Ronaldo/Macheda" thing a bit at the end there though. I never said anyone thought Ronaldo was shit, because I think everyone could see the supreme potential he possessed. The growing frustration was with his decision making in that he absolutely did want to take every man and his dog on before contemplating a cross or a shot, and people were growing concerned that he'd never grow out of that, as it were. The worry was that while he had the potential to be a 5 time Ballon D'or winner (which is something many young players possess, I believe), he may never reach that potential if he continued to be more preoccupied with being a showpony.

I do agree that Rashford's game needs simplifying, but I just don't think the extent to which you discussed on the pod is necessary. I still think he could be a massive part of a very dangerous attacking set-up, and I don't really see any reason why he couldn't develop into a player able to contribute impressive numbers each season in the goals and assists columns. I agree that he's not main striker material, because he's not disciplined enough, but I think he definitely could be a big part in the sort of fluid attacking line Ole seems to want to build. The big problem is that we currently don't have the key part of that attack to take the pressure off and allow him to focus on what he's good at.

We agree on the wages thing, I think, but again, it's not Rashford's fault. It's something true for Lingard too. We've ended up with players assuming roles in the squad that they either simply aren't good enough for in relation to the club's ambitions, or at the very least aren't ready for. The issue there is that you can't really hold that against the players themselves, as it's a management problem, and also not one that Ole is responsible for.

You're right that Fergie wouldn't have handled it like this. For one, Rashford would likely have seen a couple of seasons out on loan before appearing regularly in the senior side, and even then he'd have been used primarily as back up and support for a more seasoned player. I also think that he'd likely have began his career as a wide player under Fergie precisely because there would have been someone of proven quality taking up the spot in the starting eleven.

Perhaps you made the role you envisioned for Rashford sound more restricted than you meant, because I'm not at all against him becoming our right-sided player, for all of the reasons you've given there. Martial and James seem far more effective from the left-flank, his delivery is usually fairly decent, and we currently don't have anyone for the right-flank. I also think he'd team up with AWB well too. However, unless Greenwood happens to be a generational talent (he's good, but I'm not sure he's that good), we're probably stuck with Rashford as our best central option until at least January.

 

[buckooo1978]

The biggest issue with Ole, I think, isn't a lack of attacking plan either. I think we absolutely have an attacking blueprint now, and one akin to the sort of style we, as a fan base, have been screaming for ever since Fergie retired (and probably a bit during his final years too). I think the biggest issue Ole has is a lack of ideas on what to do about that plan, when he knows, as does everyone else, that the players he currently has at his disposal are not up to the job.

He's tried square pegs in round holes and it didn't work, which is why we saw Lukaku and Sanchez leave despite bringing in no real replacements. He's now trying to adapt the system, but can't figure out how to make it work with the players he's got left. Mata and Matic are never going to suit the system he wants to play, but after Woodward's failure to keep Herrera, the only other real option we've got in midfield is Fred, who has still yet to really show why he was ever signed in the first place.

There's perhaps a misplaced faith in Rashford to spearhead the attack, and as you say, it's been very ineffective, but the only other option Ole has at the moment is to give that responsibility to a 17-year-old. From a personal standpoint, I'm already very close to the point where I believe our best option for the remainder of the season is to just say, "feck it, play the kids".

On the first bit I don't know, I'm not so sure on Solskjaer's tactical ability. I remember last season vrs Spurs him effectively playing Lingard as a false 9 with the two strikers we lined up with splitting to be wide forwards and being really hopeful. Spurs ended up going to a 3 at the back to counter this. Since then though I'm not impressed largely with Solskjaer.

We have looked decent from a counter attacking position but that isn't always the case. We aren't creative enough though playing someone like Lingard in our creative hub (number 10) is scandalous. Pogba or Gomes has to play there.

We are supposed to be a pressing team but we don't even seem to do that well. West Ham is a perfect example for their first goal when you have United midfielders (McT and Matic I think) standing off and not pressing. Pressing seems to be a 'press if you like' situation with guys like Pereira doing a great job but it not being consistent where in the pitch we do it and when on the pitch.

Fred should be in the side ahead of Matic so not sure why this hasn't happened. Gomes should be getting more time ahead of Mata and Gomes too. Did Ole approve renewals for Young, Jones and Mata or is this simply him accepting Glazernomics.

The squad is really poor and disjointed but shouldn't the team be able to do more in possession....we look slow and unimaginative, reliant on Pogba and James for creativity. We struggled to open up a Rochdale side recently beaten 6-0 by Peterborough and 3-0 yesterday at home to Wycombe. It's not good enough quite simply even with the few injuries we have. Astana was the same and Chelsea aside we haven't won a game playing well since February. A decent tactical manager should be able to open up teams. Lampard looks much better tactically for example and Chelsea have played some good stuff

I do have sympathy for Solskjaer and I argued in the 'agitate' thread he should have done more in the summer to get more players in - he needed a midfielder to replace Herrera/Fellaini and an attacker to replace Sanchez/Lukaku. He's been either let down by Woodward and accepted it or we haven't done enough to identify targets.

I do have patience with Solskjaer and he has been hampered with the squad he has but we need to see more from the team for me. Poch has a proven record in developing players and as one of a small group in the league (Klopp, Pep and Poch) who seem to be very capable of creating teams better than the sum of their parts. If we don't improve and Poch is available I would be tempted to bring him in at the end of the season.

for me the lack of tactical ability, the low performance levels and Solskjaer himself aging by 20 years since taking the job worry me.

 

[#07]

I am glad you lot picked up the XG stuff. For me our XG is embarrassing. Its saying that on average players would be expected to score the chances we are missing. Our XG is an indictment of our finishing. Some of the chances we are missing would be buried by genuinely top class players. It just shows we are bottle jobs.

 

[Rood]

Great title lads. The best pod yet I think. Agree with Raees on Ronaldo. I also thought first time I saw him (that friendly) that he would become the best player in the world (although not a 50-60 annual goal machine). He immediately looked phenomenal.

I'm in the same boat as Colm - I don't think Ole has got it but at the same time I can't see how changing manager now would lead to anything positive, long-term. However, if things continue to unravel, we might find ourselves needing another interim fix. It's a much repeated thing (especially by myself) but an authentic DoF is a necessary structural change before anything fruitful can happen long-term.

Also, wasn't it on Ole's watch that Jones' contract was extended. Same with Mata (I was more OK with that as he's a professional and has experience, but his performances this season have been well below par). Ole's not been as ruthless as he could be. The most ballsy thing from him so far I think has been elevating Tuanzebe's status to third in the pecking order at centre back.

With regards to xG, it would be interesting to see what our xG is once we're a goal up in a game. Which comes down to our emperor's new clothes. There are no identifiable patterns of attacking play. It really is make it up as you go along. All this talk of attacking football, United way, it's all bogus. We've even got a thread here asking if people would sacrifice points for performances, when in reality we are getting neither.

High praise indeed - thanks !

Some worrying sounds coming from the club that a DoF is not needed seeing as the summer signings all went well

I also think Ole is taking too much stick at the moment, pretty obvious that our team is very reliant on Pogba and to have both him and Martial out has really killed Ole's Plan A and its pretty apparent that we dont have much of a Plan B at the moment (which Ole can take some responsibility for).

 

[Rood]

Obviously you should check out the whole show, but we have carved out just the Arsenal preview for those who havent listened yet

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[Bastian]

High praise indeed - thanks !

Some worrying sounds coming from the club that a DoF is not needed seeing as the summer signings all went well

I also think Ole is taking too much stick at the moment, pretty obvious that our team is very reliant on Pogba and to have both him and Martial out has really killed Ole's Plan A and its pretty apparent that we dont have much of a Plan B at the moment (which Ole can take some responsibility for).

Of course it's not all on Ole. He can't magically fill the squad with quality, but politically, he took the bullet in the summer, whether or not he was let down by Ed (which in all likelihood, he was). He's come out and said there weren't the right players available in attack, but we still have a threadbare midfield which isn't really suited to play our best formation (433) purely because of lack of numbers. And we had ample time from when he was made permanent manager to sort out targets. Which comes back to the structure of the club and lack of expertise in the right positions.

Like Colm said, and I agree with, it's hard to see any clear identity other than a counter attacking team that struggles in possession. For me, that's down to coaching and significant lack of quality in midfield.

With regards to injuries, we do seem to pick up a lot of non-contact injuries, which may be down to the training regime. I did read Ole just added a fitness coach, so hopefully that's something he's going to mend.

 

[Raees]

@Duafc @Rood predictions went well?

 

[Rood]

@Duafc @Rood predictions went well?

Ye I suppose - we gifted them a goal so my 1-0 was close and you both predicted draw so that's where we are at

I'm sure Arsenal are happier with the draw than us though