MS might be the next GA. 40% of the voters there are black/African Americans. Add to that the shift of the suburbs to the Dems, and it may become a swing state in few years.
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- Thread starter Nick 0208 Ldn
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Have no idea what is going on?
It would not even be close to GA. Having a lot of black or African Americans does not do much with the results if they can't vote (assuming they are even heavily leaning toward the Democrats).
I think NC can be much more interesting.
NC resident here. Sorry to say it won't be. I am just praying/hoping/begging we don't get Robinson as the next Gov. That is how low my bar is.
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I really don't think so, if you look at each presidential election last ten years(2012-2020), the state isn't moving at all.
Different than Georgia, which gradually moved for dems over the years.
Looks like Johnson just might be the Speaker.
In tend to agree but Georgia is only really moving towards the Dems because of the expanding Atlanta suburbs, if the major deep South Cities in MS and elsewhere start doing the same the change might happen quicker, especially if the SC keeps steadfast on the congressional redistricting maps, having more black majority districts will encourage more black voters to vote than might have done so, before, and that definitely favors Dems
His plan had no mention of Ukraine or Israeli aid. I have a feeling that Ukraine is fecked in terms of official house aid. It amazes me how, with this presumed win, the lunatic MAGA wing has completely overwhelmed the "moderate" majority of the GOP through pure vitriol and perseverance. I ranked it as the second most likely, but I should have remembered that the GOP, at it's core, is a pack of cowards terrified by their own supporters.
edit: actually, #1 did happen, but the lunatic fringe did not listen so I feel I nailed it.
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Well, what did I say, guys?
Predicting what the GOP will do is fairly simple nowadays.
Predicting what the GOP will do is fairly simple nowadays.
Having read some of his positions, he doesnt look like someone dems can work with on anything, and i guess there won't be any more Ukraine aid?
Bloody hell- they actually voted for a Speaker, didn't see that happening!
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Don''t get too excited. The moment one R gets pissed they can call another vote like Gaetz did. He also has to kiss Trump's ass now or else Trump will get one of his stooge congress members to vote him out.
How long do you reckon he's got, I reckon by Thanksgiving he'll be toast
He already kissed his ass, and he is hardly moderate. He is firmly in that MAGA group. Gaetz voting the other guy out had more to do with personal buffs than with their politics. And someone was in that because his faith was 'mocked'.
From Trump at MAGA rallies to now the House Speaker at Cap Hill. Surreal.
This came true after all.
I am of the opinion that Kevin McCarthy would have been better for Democrats. The Democrats made the risky calculation that R would have to come over to them, and they got some (more) leverage (than with McCarthy). It might probably backfire on them for some of their policies, such as UKR aid and whatnot. Of course, Democrats still have some leverage from the Senate, but it is smaller now.
The outsider view of the situation that I hold is that the Dems forced their Republican counterparts into a referendum of sorts on the extremist MAGA views of thier minority, and lost that gamble. I don't know what it does for polling next year, but as of now extremist MAGA views are no longer the minority in the House. That truth social post against Emmer from the henchman-in-chief seems to have been the turning point. The moderates caved in after that.
Election denial, opposition to Ukraine aid, anti-abortion, anti-medicare, Trump sycophancy, climate-change denial, anti-LGBTQ. Everything the far right wanted in their speaker. Gaetz must be proud of his accomplishment, started with the support of 7 others and now the whole caucus has flipped.
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Pretty much, and there is no such thing as 'moderates' in the GOP anymore. At least not many are in the house, and they kicked most of them out already. They are either MAGA idiots who shout extreme shits or other more cunning, calculated assholes for their own extreme agendas. I guess when I said "moderates" there, I meant the latter group.
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Also, a huge election denialist, while we are at it.
Beyond pathetic by the GOP to get a guy like that as Speaker.
Doesnt sell well with voters, as we saw in midterms, but hey, anything to own the libs, i guess.
This is indeed ominous - there is no reason to believe that Trump will not attempt to overturn the election results once again if he loses 2024. In fact, it is the most likely course of action since it is his best bet to avoid the consequences of all these trials which are about to culminate unfavourably for him sooner or later. He's already got the Supreme Court and a significant portion of other key swing state officials in his pocket, the House of Representatives would be a fine addition to his arsonry toolkit.
But, he won't have / be on the bully pulpit of the incumbency like 2020, so all his vitriol will be limited to shit tossing from the proverbial sidelines.
No reason to believe the SC will suddenly change their 2020 tune vis a vis Trump's lawsuits, etc., they held the line then & will do so in the future. Hopefully some obvs members will shuffle their mortal coil this year to further entrench the SC on the side of the good (for this predicament, not overall).
There was no reason to believe they'd gut Roe v Wade or Affirmative Action the last time, either. I think it's reasonable to expect major controversial decisions in this term as well, and election interference as retribution for exposing their ethics violations wouldn't surprise me. But then again, I'd have to concede I hold a rather rudimentary view of things, and this discussion was spurred by a rather ambitious premise of Johnson actually seeing out his term till the next election.
There was every reason to believe both as the SC signaled as such months before the rulings. Obviously they couldn't presage any Trump assistance with the 2020 election, but they actually showed a legal spine once the morass began. I just haven't seen any change in that stance since which is heartening (could be wrong here though, but nothing comes to mind).
I was ignorant of this - and probably don't have enough context to hold my view any further. Hopefully the instituions of democracy can survive the next MAGA assault in 2024 like you say.
SC often times sends up little smoke signals (or flat out leaks rulings ahead of time) to somewhat prepare the ground for the actual, non-leaked rulings. It’s also a political / media cottage industry to try to guess how the ruling will go due to justices’ past rulings, who nominated them, their overt political leanings, which billionaire dark money group props them up, etc.
But, your overarching point I took is very valid, it’s quite the shitshow.
Hopefully, all these "moderate" house republicans in swing districts gets punished hard for this next year, dems should remind the voters who these people installed as speaker.
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Bossed eyed witch.
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Good point here, probably the least "free" free country.
We just have a different definition. For us the true meaning of freedom is the freedom to casually massacre dozens of our fellow citizens. We are the freest country in the West and it’s not even close.
She was one of the 126 in the Texas suit and one of the 147 objectors to the GE tally, not surprised. Guarantee she's said a few racial words towards others in her lifetime. Her stances on issues are asinine, like voting against Katrina relief, claiming Matthew Shepard's murder for being gay was a hoax to pass new laws (she claimed it was a robbery incident), claimed the ACA was a bigger threat than terrorism, etc. A queen bitch.
And do some shady shit outside our borders when we feel like it.