US Politics
- Thread starter Nick 0208 Ldn
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Nice. Only 24 days til the next shutdown and these clowns can’t even get a speaker, nevermind agree on what happens after.
Something like only 5 or 6 House working days until the shutdown.
I think the moderates will probably have to back off and vote a MAGA in the end as the speaker of the house and it will fecked up the country more. It is really not funny at this point.
For some of them that would be signing their political death warrant, if they vote for a MAGA they're likely to be voted out in 2024
Fleshed out a bit. Allen rules over a slightly less worthless part of Georgia than MTG's...
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I think most of them are going to get voted out either way. MAGAs would not mind strong-arming and throwing some moderates in Biden's districts under the bus if it means they can feck up some of Biden's policies to rifle their supporters up for Trump next year unless he is in jail and disqualified by then (but they won't think that). Those who opposed Jordon were not exactly in those districts or did it due to morale conflicts with him. But the longer it goes on, the harder it is for them to oppose a MAGA.
Perhaps but there only needs to be 4 and there's probably enough of them
Every day is Groundhog Day in the GOP
As I said, Trump and MAGA will have more intensive campaigns for those who do not support their eventual candidate. That, and it is getting more urgent. There is no way that any of them will work with Democrats. They will fall in line very soon. Time and circumstances are not exactly on the side of any moderates or (anyone at all) here.
They don't exist. They live long enough to become despised villains though.
We just got ourselves in Canada a new speaker at the House of Commons not that long ago. Perhaps the US should take a look at how we find a replacement in that position.
There are House districts that MAGA won't get anywhere close, even in Primaries, these are seats that the GOP must hold because they can't win without them, most of them are in States where Biden won big
I am sure you know that the house majority usually changes hands every cycle, regardless. That cult may not care about it for that reason, and possibly if it means they can be seen as supporting Trump. As unreliable as the current polls may be, they do show that Trump is still very popular and ahead of Biden in some swing states. They might do a (risky) calculation to back MAGA in the hope of keeping those seats or gaining some elsewhere if those polls were correct and Trump became president next year.
There are more MAGA-districts than there are not though, just look at how many house republicans voted to overturn the 2020 election.
They will likely be able to tank any candidate for speaker that even remotely hints at working with democrats.
Eh, popular is not the word i would use, Trump's approval ratings are shit, and will always be so.
If Trump wins in 2024, it will not be because people suddenly forgot everything he did and started liking him, it would be low turn-out for Biden + electoral college favoring GOP.
Why is he backing Harris as running mate? She’s not thought of as a viable president, and he’d be 86 by the end of his term. Surely they need a VP capable of governing?
Whether Trump will get elected or is actually more popular is besides the point here, though. But my point is that the polls being that close can give them a way to strategize for them. The low turnout for Biden would be what the MGA cult would aim for while they energize their base for the turnout. Shouting MGA bullshit around will help that. So all the House Republicans getting behind that is a very possible scenario here at this point; hence, they will elect the candidate that Trump likes eventually.
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They will eventually have to work with the Dems to get a speaker elected, which will come with heavy concessions, and probably be accompanied by a bloodbath at the polls for MAGA GOP reps next Nov.
She's one of the few that wouldn't overshadow him by being perceived as more competent than him at his age. As opposed to someone like Buttagieg or Newsom, who would suck up all the oxygen and make him look like nothing more than a figurehead potus.
I think you are living in a different reality where that happens especially with the election year coming up. Not that I would mind that happening in the one where I live, though.
And now I wonder if that kind of thing happened before and if so, when that was.
Fair, but they have to realise independents in swing states might look at that and not fancy her as president, and consider there a good chance of her becoming so if they elect Biden. Think Biden has showed he still has competence in the last week (or at least that his team has) but there’s absolutely no evidence to suggest she could handle this. VP is generally a ceremonial cheerleader, but at his age it’s a president in waiting.
Can GOP members just choose to flip to democrat, like UK MPs can? And if so, is there a path for Jeffries to peel off 4 moderates to get the majority and have them run for re-election as dems?
I don't think that will play into Biden's logic since he ran with her in 20 and got more votes than anyone in history. The Dem party have made their bed with the identify politics crowd where they almost have to have a non white male on the ticket. She checks that box nicely for him.
I don't see any alternative and the pressure will only keep rising with each day. A moderate can't get it because the MAGA wing won't allow it. A MAGA won't get it because the moderates won't allow it. Therefore the only way out will be a power sharing deal. If we get to the next shutdown date on Nov 17, and the government shuts down because the GOP can't get a speaker elected, it will be game over for them next year anyway.
Shame really, though I’d think somebody like Stacy abrams could enthuse that base better whilst appearing more confident! Maybe it’s just me, but just in the eye test, I feel Biden has visibly aged and got more frail physically since the last cycle.
The way I see it, MAGA's grip on the House is pretty tight. The MAGA shit did not work in the 2022 Senate races, but they sure pushed out a bunch of anti-MAGA folks from the House. All this shit started because the moderates could not keep MAGA extremists in line and despite having low numbers, they are still getting their way even at this point. So I predict that the moderates, again, will have to give in to them eventually.
And, if the scenario happens, who the feck knows how they will keep the government open and pass necessary bills? It is very grim, really. It is why I would like your reality to be mine for the sake of everyone.
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There are more moderates than hardcore MAGA so despite Trump's support (which still counts for a lot) they are pretty much even. The narrow majority where a speaker candidate can't lose more than 4 votes is suggestive they will eventually cave and a moderate could come out ahead if the Dems support him.
More moderates, yet they are in this sh*t due to hardcore MAGA. If any credible sources come out that a Republican talks with Democrats, I can't imagine what will happen to that Republican. In your scenario, it is more likely that a MAGA will get voted in than the other way around.
There will be a fair few Republicans who aren't planning on running next year anyway, so all it would take are 4 or 5 of them to strike a deal with Dems.
This evening's vote count isn't shaping up any better than previous votes this week.
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2nd round of voting. Looks like Johnson is getting close - except that the other category is full of McCarthy fans trying to get him back in contention.
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Mike Johnson now, huh?
Me: Who the f.ck is this asshole?!
Me: Who the f.ck is this asshole?!
According to https://www.axios.com/2023/10/24/mike-johnson-house-speaker-republican-candidate:
"What's Johnson's relationship with Trump?
Johnson is known to be a stark Trump ally and was a staunch defender of the former president during the impeachment hearings.
- The Louisiana Republican led the amicus brief signed by more than 100 House Republicans in support of a Texas lawsuit seeking to overturn the 2020 election results in four swing states.
- The team of former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), a driving force of the House Jan. 6 committee and an outspoken Trump critic, released old videos highlighting Johnson's involvement, as well as a quote in the New York Times that called him "the most important architect of the Electoral College objections," NBC reports."
Because she's not white and she's a woman, dumping her would cost him too many votes in places he needs to win, pissing off black women in Georgia for example could cost him then lelection
The MAGA lot, aka the Freedom caucus is less than a quarter of GOP numbers and some of them have no intention of governing, prior to Gaetz the last peron to use the Motion to vacate the Speaker was Gym Jordan in 2015, a man whos' been in Congress since 2007 and has yet to introduce any meaningful legislation, he's there to sow discord not to serve
Can't change horses midstream. That would be election suicide.
Don't sleep on Donalds.
Must be a lot of young MAGA children named Donald.