Venezuela - Guyana tensions over territory

berbatrick

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owlo said:
https://issuu.com/venezuelasolidaritycampaign/docs/viva_venezuela_volume_2_issue_2


https://capx.co/venezuelas-useful-idiots-have-gone-quiet-i-wonder-why/

From the last article:
Of course, one of Chávez’s foremost fans was the man who now leads the Labour Party. At a pro-Chavez rally in London, Jeremy Corbyn said: “Chavez … showed us that there is a different, and a better way of doing things. It’s called socialism”. In an article on his website (now deleted), he wrote: “Venezuela is seriously conquering poverty by emphatically rejecting … Neo Liberal policies … As with Cuba the threat to the USA by Venezuela is not military … It is far more insidious, a threat by example of what social justice can achieve.”

At a pro-Venezuela event in the UK, Diane Abbott opined: “[Chavez] showed the region that it was possible to do things differently … I feel particularly passionate about defending the revolution of Venezuela and the Chavez legacy.”

Just brought it up as the left are starting to mobilise as pro-Venezuela/'anti colonialism' again, and to tie it into other conflicts. (Chavez is very anti Israel)
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He's also dead. For over a decade, in fact.
 

RedDevilQuebecois

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Meanwhile, the people of Guyana don't have a single word in this. Referendum, my ass.

Go feck yourself, Maduro, you overweighted mustached POS.
 

owlo

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Mogget said:
Leftist leaders are so powerful they influence policy from the grave.
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Not like Maduro specifically said he's following in Chavez's footsteps, then actually did or anything. Or like anything Chavez set in place is still relevant now. Or that Owen Jones and Corbyn also supported Maduro.
 

VorZakone

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Article mentions bad weather. What a coincidence though. Also, this is the only article I've seen so far that says Venezuelan troops have been building up at the border.

Helicopter carrying 5 senior Guyana military officials is missing near tense border with Venezuela

A military helicopter carrying seven people vanished Wednesday near Guyana’s border with Venezuela, with authorities saying there was bad weather in the area and stressing there was no indication it may have been hit by hostile fire as tensions escalate between the countries.
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https://apnews.com/article/guyana-helicopter-missing-venezuela-eed6b27465e6ad02f4f02aa569f715de
 

africanspur

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This guy is such a clown for god's sake, keep yourself to yourself. Difficult to see who will step in if he does decide to go ahead and annex the region though sadly.
 

VorZakone

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africanspur said:
This guy is such a clown for god's sake, keep yourself to yourself. Difficult to see who will step in if he does decide to go ahead and annex the region though sadly.
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My amateur opinion is this would be a good moment for Brazil to show that it's a major geopolitical player and won't tolerate illegal annexation.

I don't think any Western country would use force against Venezuela.
 

Revan

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VorZakone said:
My amateur opinion is this would be a good moment for Brazil to show that it's a major geopolitical player and won't tolerate illegal annexation.

I don't think any Western country would use force against Venezuela.
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I guess that might have happened with Bolsonaro, but not sure Lula would be interested to go to war with Venezuela.
 

africanspur

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VorZakone said:
My amateur opinion is this would be a good moment for Brazil to show that it's a major geopolitical player and won't tolerate illegal annexation.

I don't think any Western country would use force against Venezuela.
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They'd be the only potential option I think but I wonder how much appetite there would be in Brazil to see dead Brazilians for a dispute that doesn't really concern their core interests in the slightest.

Not sure what the American appetite (or ability) is to support Ukraine, Israel, wage war in South America and do all of their normal stuff as well.
 

Organic Potatoes

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africanspur said:
They'd be the only potential option I think but I wonder how much appetite there would be in Brazil to see dead Brazilians for a dispute that doesn't really concern their core interests in the slightest.

Not sure what the American appetite (or ability) is to support Ukraine, Israel, wage war in South America and do all of their normal stuff as well.
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The professional twitter military scholars on my feed (always vaguely reliable but not really) seem to think Brazil suppressing Venezuela in a conflict is not as straightforward as it would seem given the relative size of the countries and economies. There is the Amazon in the way of most of Brazil along with other considerations like air power.

Plus the appetite for war as you mentioned.
 

Scarlett Dracarys

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https://www.instagram.com/reel/C0gxtaYuvER/?igshid=NzBmMjdhZWRiYQ==
Organic Potatoes said:
The professional twitter military scholars on my feed (always vaguely reliable but not really) seem to think Brazil suppressing Venezuela in a conflict is not as straightforward as it would seem given the relative size of the countries and economies. There is the Amazon in the way of most of Brazil along with other considerations like air power.

Plus the appetite for war as you mentioned.
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Good thing Brazil has air power because guyana has one single helicopter that had to emergency land somewhere yesterday. We're just not equipped for war.
 

MTF

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https://gy.usembassy.gov/southcom-to-conduct-flight-over-guyana/

In collaboration with the Guyana Defence Force (GDF), the U.S. Southern Command (USSOUTHCOM) will conduct flight operations within Guyana on December 7. This exercise builds upon routine engagement and operations to enhance security partnership between the United States and Guyana, and to strengthen regional cooperation.

In addition to this exercise, USSOUTHCOM will continue its collaboration with the GDF in the areas of disaster preparedness, aerial and maritime security, and countering transnational criminal organizations.

The U.S. will continue its commitment as Guyana’s trusted security partner and promoting regional cooperation and interoperability.
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MTF

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africanspur said:
They'd be the only potential option I think but I wonder how much appetite there would be in Brazil to see dead Brazilians for a dispute that doesn't really concern their core interests in the slightest.

Not sure what the American appetite (or ability) is to support Ukraine, Israel, wage war in South America and do all of their normal stuff as well.
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Peace in South America isn't at the top of the list of Brazil's interests, but it also isn't that far down. Brazil has ambitions to be a regional power with global relevance, that claim is undermined if they prove to be incapable of keeping peace between 2 smaller neighbors.

This is already likely a conversation at the highest levels of government. One issue is that Lula is ideologically aligned with Maduro, has long defended Venezuela's form of government. But I imagine the military is trying to pressure him to adopt a more active posture.

They announced a couple of days ago that they were moving additional APCs and light-armored vehicles to the region, but they're going to take about a month to arrive because the logistics are a combination of driving up from southern and central Brazil, then on barges up the Amazon from one state capital to another, then more driving. Because there's not good continuous roads to where they need to get to in Roraima.
 

owlo

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Organic Potatoes said:
The professional twitter military scholars on my feed (always vaguely reliable but not really) seem to think Brazil suppressing Venezuela in a conflict is not as straightforward as it would seem given the relative size of the countries and economies. There is the Amazon in the way of most of Brazil along with other considerations like air power.

Plus the appetite for war as you mentioned.
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The only thing I’ve seen on it (apart from the ongoing 209 sub hunt) is some dude claiming that Brazil would struggle due to the Amazon being in the way (and poor rail links blabla) and a weak air force and not really making a cogent argument as to why as well as missing a load of variables. (Analytical camel guy I think. If that’s who you’re referring to it’s basically bs)
 

VorZakone

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Venezuela accuses opposition politicians of treason over Essequibo
Venezuela has ordered the arrest of several politicians with close links to opposition presidential candidate María Corina Machado.

Attorney-General Tarek William Saab accused them of trying to sabotage last week's referendum over Venezuela's claim to the disputed Essequibo region.
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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-67647399
 

VorZakone

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VorZakone

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Tensions are soaring between Guyana and Venezuela over century-old territorial dispute

While Guyana’s oil industry has boomed, Venezuela’s has plummeted. Venezuela has the world’s largest proven crude reserves, but its oil industry has been crippled by years of mismanagement and economic sanctions imposed on the state-owned oil company following President Nicolás Maduro’s re-election in 2018, which was widely considered fraudulent.
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International security firm Global Guardian expects Venezuela to gradually ramp up tensions and go as far as conducting naval exercises near Guyana, said Zev Faintuch, a senior intelligence analyst at the firm.

“We might even see some sort of very small scale, cross-border activity,” he said, adding that he expects activities to escalate until elections are held in Venezuela. “Maduro’s interest is to get himself reelected and get some more of his oil onto oil markets.”
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https://apnews.com/article/venezuel...o-referendum-d956cc4d5d2a70e3a1e762b744e397de
 

VorZakone

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‘People are fearful’: Guyana alert for land grab by Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro

“We are a diverse nation, but at the end of the day we are all one people: the Guyanese,” said Ashley.

The only Spanish speakers in the riverside settlement are Venezuelans who have sought refuge there in recent years after fleeing their home country’s economic collapse, Ashley said.

So when the Venezuelan president, Nicolás Maduro, announced this week that he would issue his country’s ID cards to the local population, and step up efforts to convert Essequibo into a Venezuelan state, local people showed little interest in taking up the offer.
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/09/us-flyover-guyana-venezuela-border-disputed-territory
 

VorZakone

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Sir Matt

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I'm curious how much of this from Maduro is for domestic consumption vs helping his allies in Moscow, Tehran, and Beijing by diverting US attention from Ukraine, Israel, etc. If the US has to send Naval/Coast Guard forces to the Caribbean to prevent the Venezuelans from exploiting Guyanese oil and gas, that may mean fewer resources can be sent to the Red Sea, Persian Gulf, South China Sea, etc.
 

JagUTD

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Red in STL said:
Wanna bet, the UK military is a shadow of it's former self, it's debatable whether it could defend Britain never mind a colony, former or otherwise
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Eh? Pretty sure Britain just needs to tell whoevers being clever to stop being a dick or we will tell our dad, Uncle Sam.

Seriously though, as far as defending Britain? Easy. It's not a case of rolling over some land border. Amphibious invasions are notoriously difficult.

As for defending another nation, the UK is still one of the few nations with ability to project force well beyond it's own backyard. Something even the likes of China or Russia aren't capable of.
 

VorZakone

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Venezuela Deploys Military to Oil-Rich Guyana’s Border

Venezuela is backing up its threats to annex part of Guyana and secure access to some of the world’s largest oil finds in more than a decade by moving light tanks, missile-equipped patrol boats and armored carriers to the two countries’ border in what is quickly turning into a new security challenge for the Biden administration.

“The Venezuelans are moving a bunch of stuff around and kind of making military noise, showing it all off on social media while they’re also trying to tell the Guyanese, ‘Well, let’s negotiate on friendly terms,’ ” said Christopher Hernandez-Roy, deputy director of the Americas Program at CSIS. “This is not being a good neighbor. They’re doing tank drills 140 yards from the Essequibo—yards.”
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https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/...ch-guyanas-border-06613730?st=mbjguguo6ik83kg
 

VorZakone

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Exxon plan for Guyana oil exploration risks raising tensions with Venezuela

“The truth is that this announcement couldn’t come at a worse time,” said Geoff Ramsey, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. “Venezuela’s neighbors, led by Brazil, have been working hard for the last three months to lower tensions and ensure good communication between the two governments. This is going to be a massive test for regional diplomacy.”
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/08/exxon-explore-oil-guyana-venezuela-tension
 
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