Who ought to be the next big managers in football?

B20

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United of course have issues finding a manager right now. All the big names have been gobbled up. And big clubs in general seem very insular in their process these days.
It's down to choosing between proven big name managers and former players and that's about it. Everyone else is barely in the reckoning.
Bayern seem like the only ones bucking the trend and it's not been an unqualified success forward them either (kovac).
Meanwhile Real had found themselves running out of managers in this environment (their attempt with an up and coming in lopetegui lasted all of three months) so they've gone back to one the president doesn't really know why he fired to begin with. After the former manager ex player they rehired resigned again.
Juve too have gone back to a former manager whilst barca, Atletico, arsenal and (until last week) United are managed by ex-players.

Where is the next generation of big managers supposed to come from? Managers at mid level clubs stay there long enough waiting for the next opportunity that they inevitably have a downturn and the narrative becomes 'he was never good enough'.
And many of the former 'stepping stone clubs' aren't being platforms for the next up and coming managers either (Roma have mourinho, Tottenham conte).

Ten Hag seems to be the only one to have appeared on the big club radar in the current climate. Rodgers has been disregarded. Who ought to be next? Does the United board even know who someone like gallardo is? Does florentino perez know? And what is the pathway to it in this climate where no one is willing to take a chance on anything other than proven winners and ex players?
 

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Football management is a business where it takes 2-3 seasons to build a reputation and 2 weeks to lose it. So it is extremely hard to predict who the next big dog is until they start winning trophies.
 

B20

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Football management is a business where it takes 2-3 seasons to build a reputation and 2 weeks to lose it. So it is extremely hard to predict who the next big dog is until they start winning trophies.
I don't think 2-3 seasons cuts it anymore unless you are winning the big trophies.
 

Dancfc

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Cream will always rise to the top. 6 years ago you wouldn't have considered Tuchel for a top gig, likewise Klopp 6 years before that.
 

B20

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Cream will always rise to the top. 6 years ago you wouldn't have considered Tuchel for a top gig, likewise Klopp 6 years before that.
I don't think that is necessarily true these days. Tuchel is basically the last one to come through this mechanism.

It might change, it has to at some point I reckon as the current environment is unsustainable, but when and how?
 

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I think there are enough talented managers out there. It's just the big clubs have been fairly risk averse & instead chosen to go down the nostalgia route recently.

I don't think giving a shot to a Graham Potter is anymore risky than spending 3 years on Solskjaer or Arteta. You choose the former based mostly on his talent and potential. And the latter 2 on sentimentality
 

dinostar77

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Football management is a business where it takes 2-3 seasons to build a reputation and 2 weeks to lose it. So it is extremely hard to predict who the next big dog is until they start winning trophies.
Exactly, Uni Emery for example. Won three consecutive Europa league titles with sevilla, the league with psg and the domestic cup. Not given enough time at arsenal before being sacked now at Villarreal.

Julien Nieglesmann is at Bayern. But Bayern are a slick outfit who plan well.

As manager who's up and coming, you either win stuff or you impress with your abilities to over achieve at you current club and end up on the radar of bigger clubs. Just like a player a move can make or break your career.
 

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Dancfc

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I don't think that is necessarily true these days. Tuchel is basically the last one to come through this mechanism.

It might change, it has to at some point I reckon as the current environment is unsustainable, but when and how?
I'd probably say Flick (and to an extent Sarri, older yes but a very late starter), I know he was shoehorned into the Bayern job but as you saw with Frank, Pirlo and Ole he'd have quickly got found out if he couldn't cut it. Who knows maybe Xavi will be next? (although he'd probably be off the menu as unlike Pep I can see him sticking by Barca for quite a while if he cuts it). Could maybe see Potter being another Pochettino also.

I just can't help but looking at how ridiculously well coached we are currently and think there's simply no way coaching talent on that level will go under the radar long term and if they do they will make a medium sized club very happy.
 

do.ob

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I don't think that is necessarily true these days. Tuchel is basically the last one to come through this mechanism.

It might change, it has to at some point I reckon as the current environment is unsustainable, but when and how?
What do you mean with "this mechnism"? And how was his path different from e.g. Nagelsmann's?
 

B20

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What do you mean with "this mechnism"? And how was his path different from e.g. Nagelsmann's?
Stepping up through a succession of clubs and given a chance at successively bigger clubs.

Bayern is an exception as I mentioned above, but perhaps it's also because they have exhausted their big name cycle with lvg ancelotti and guardiola years ago.

It's been an issue in the Premier league for a very long time really, that this pathway is virtually non existent. Then when it seemed to open, United, Chelsea and arsenal all thought it best to try their hand at ex players instead.
 

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Everyone on this forum by the sounds of it wayyy

But really, I agree with Skills. Lots of decent talent out there - Potter, Rodgers, Rose, Ten Hag, Gerrard(?) - but it's whether a big club gives them a chance to prove themselves or they're stuck in the ever-revolving door of decent-okay clubs. It's hard to forge a reputation as an elite manager otherwise.

Xavi could be one based on pure assumption. He certainly has the chops to be a Pep-esque manager, though arguably so did Arteta.
 
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Rozay

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I think there are enough talented managers out there. It's just the big clubs have been fairly risk averse & instead chosen to go down the nostalgia route recently.

I don't think giving a shot to a Graham Potter is anymore risky than spending 3 years on Solskjaer or Arteta. You choose the former based mostly on his talent and potential. And the latter 2 on sentimentality
Arteta was clearly nit appointwd out if ‘sentiment’, and is no Arsenal legend. He’s clearly a perfect example of a big club taking a chance of a highly rated coach with potential.
 

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Kjetil Knutsen will likely manage a larger club in a year or two. If that goes well its off to the bigboys
 

B20

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Arteta was clearly nit appointwd out if ‘sentiment’, and is no Arsenal legend. He’s clearly a perfect example of a big club taking a chance of a highly rated coach with potential.
You think he would have gotten the job if he hadn't played under wenger?
 

Rozay

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You think he would have gotten the job if he hadn't played under wenger?
Yes.
 

do.ob

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Stepping up through a succession of clubs and given a chance at successively bigger clubs.

Bayern is an exception as I mentioned above, but perhaps it's also because they have exhausted their big name cycle with lvg ancelotti and guardiola years ago.

It's been an issue in the Premier league for a very long time really, that this pathway is virtually non existent. Then when it seemed to open, United, Chelsea and arsenal all thought it best to try their hand at ex players instead.
Tuchel:
Mainz youth -> Mainz main -> Dortmund -> Paris -> Chelsea
Kohfeldt:
Werder youth -> Werder main -> Wolfsburg
Nagelsmann:
Hoffenheim youth -> Hoffenheim main -> Leipzig -> Bayern
Rose:
Mainz assistant -> 4th division boyhood club -> Salzburg youth -> Salzburg main -> Gladbach -> Dortmund
Jesse Marsch:
MLS -> Leipzig assistant -> Salzburg -> Leipzig
Erik ten Hag:
Dutch 2nd div -> Bayern youth -> Utrecht -> Ajax
Hoeneß:
Leipzig youth -> Bayern youth -> Hoffenheim main
Matarazzo:
Nürnberg youth -> Hoffenheim youth -> Stuttgart
Baumgart:
4th division clubs in Berlin -> Paderborn (in 3rd division) -> Cologne

I can't be bothered to check other countries, but I see plenty of coaches working their way up the pyramid every season. It's harder to find a coach that hasnt worked his way up step by step. It's just English clubs that seem to almost entirely try to skim off the top of other countries or try to skip steps entirely by just giving it to former players directly. But even most of the ones that end up in England have gotten there via step by step development of their career, just not all in the same country. E.g. if Ten Hag were to sign for United now, he'd have had a smooth career trajectory from Bayern II to Utrecht to Ajax to United.
 
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AjaxCunian

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Arteta had never been a head coach at that point, not even of a youth team. It is completely uncomparable with young, highly rated coaches who had already taken up that responsibility.
 

Rozay

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Arteta had never been a head coach at that point, not even of a youth team. It is completely uncomparable with young, highly rated coaches who had already taken up that responsibility.
Well it is obviously incomparable with ‘young, highly rated coaches who has already taken up that responsibility’ because, obviously, he had not taken up that responsibility. He was not incomparable to ‘young, highly rated coaches’ though, because that is what he was. Arsenal are a huge club. They went and gave Arteta a permanent job because they believed he could become a great manager and build a long term project at the club. Not because he insignificantly played for them
 

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Well it is obviously incomparable with ‘young, highly rated coaches who has already taken up that responsibility’ because, obviously, he had not taken up that responsibility. He was not incomparable to ‘young, highly rated coaches’ though, because that is what he was. Arsenal are a huge club. They went and gave Arteta a permanent job because they believed he could become a great manager and build a long term project at the club. Not because he insignificantly played for them
If I were to guess how often a big club hired another clubs assistant coach as their head coach without a prior connection - ever - I'd guess zero.
 

Rozay

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If I were to guess how often a big club hired another clubs assistant coach as their head coach without a prior connection - ever - I'd guess zero.
I couldn’t care less about the trend of it. People feel trends and patterns needs to be the basis of every debate due to often being too lazy to actually think for themselves. What matters is that Arteta at the time was highly touted as a potential top coach, and Arsenal took a chance on him. If they wanted a ‘legend’ with managerial experience they’d have hired Thierry Henry not fecking Arteta, who was an insignificant player for them. His main appeal was that Arsenal saw an opportunity to potentially get in on the next big thing rather than appoint a more proven manager of a mediocre standard. They opted to try and develop a super-coach because they couldn’t get the original Guardiola.
 

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Well it is obviously incomparable with ‘young, highly rated coaches who has already taken up that responsibility’ because, obviously, he had not taken up that responsibility. He was not incomparable to ‘young, highly rated coaches’ though, because that is what he was. Arsenal are a huge club. They went and gave Arteta a permanent job because they believed he could become a great manager and build a long term project at the club. Not because he insignificantly played for them
That is all true yes and the point you are making isnt wrong, but are we really going to downplay the additional credit that comes to actually being a head coach and performing even if at a lower level?

Arteta might be highly rated, but because this never happens it seems very debatable that having a career at Arsenal or working under Pep (feel like this is both sentiment, but also genuinely a good thing) had 0 influence on Arsenal's choice to hire him? Henry hadnt proven to be a very good coach at that time at any level, so the comparison stops there I'd say.
 

harms

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Ruben Amorim seems like an interesting prospect.
 

Rozay

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That is all true yes and the point you are making isnt wrong, but are we really going to downplay the additional credit that comes to actually being a head coach and performing even if at a lower level?

Arteta might be highly rated, but because this never happens it seems very debatable that having a career at Arsenal or working under Pep (feel like this is both sentiment, but also genuinely a good thing) had 0 influence on Arsenal's choice to hire him? Henry hadnt proven to be a very good coach at that time at any level, so the comparison stops there I'd say.
To me, they simply decided to get in early. There are coaches who have performed at a higher level, but experience also takes away a lot of the unknown. People have seen you, snd can probably conclude that you will not be an elite coach. They simply tried something different.

Him working under Pep has nothing to do with his playing for Arsenal, it lends to the reason why they thought he had the potential to become a top coach. I can’t see Emmanuel Petit or Ian Wright being offered a permanent Arsenal role. Sol Campbell has declared a number of times that he wants it too, he’d never get it. Arteta was a bit unique to me. He was very highly spoken of as something of a mastermind behind City. Said at the time that it was thought he could succeed Guardiola etc. I think the fact that he played for Arsenal would have helped the board think that he knows the environment and could settle more easily, but had little to do with him having some sort of credit at the club. He was no Henry. Quieroz left an assistant manager role to go and manager Real Madrid no less because at the time, he had a huge reputation as being influential at a super team. I think Arteta was similar to that.
 

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I don't think managers arrive by bunches, it's one by one and it's futile to look at the next generation. You judge prospects on a yearly basis and see where they are, it has always been like that.
 

VanDeBank

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Feyenoord's Arne Slot deserves a shout.

Was in a title race with AZ before the season was cancelled due to covid and is now in a title race with Feyenoord (finished 5th last season under Advocaat)

His big game record is impressive:

DATUMWEDSTRIJDUITSLAG
26 september 2019Feyenoord - AZ0-3
27 oktober 2019PSV - AZ0-4
15 december 2019AZ - Ajax1-0
1 maart 2020Ajax - AZ0-2
19 september 2021PSV - Feyenoord0-4

He usually plays 4-2-3-1 with a high press and attacking football. He initially was an assistant but the players liked him so much he became the de facto head coach. He's bald and comfortable talking to the press.
 

do.ob

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I couldn’t care less about the trend of it. People feel trends and patterns needs to be the basis of every debate due to often being too lazy to actually think for themselves. What matters is that Arteta at the time was highly touted as a potential top coach, and Arsenal took a chance on him. If they wanted a ‘legend’ with managerial experience they’d have hired Thierry Henry not fecking Arteta, who was an insignificant player for them. His main appeal was that Arsenal saw an opportunity to potentially get in on the next big thing rather than appoint a more proven manager of a mediocre standard. They opted to try and develop a super-coach because they couldn’t get the original Guardiola.
I'm not talking about some trend though, I'm talking about - ever - in the history of the modern game. Because the lazy thing is to actually assume that Arteta has a realistic chance to be the next big thing, someone who can likely be developed into a "super coach", just because he worked for Pep for a while. Being the water carrier of a genius doesn't make you a genius yourself and no one in their right mind would hire someone, who has never been in charge of team, without at the very very least knowing his character from his playing career.
 

Rozay

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I'm not talking about some trend though, I'm talking about - ever - in the history of the modern game. Because the lazy thing is to actually assume that Arteta has a realistic chance to be the next big thing, someone who can likely be developed into a "super coach", just because he worked for Pep for a while. Being the water carrier of a genius doesn't make you a genius yourself and no one in their right mind would hire someone, who has never been in charge of team, without at the very very least knowing his character from his playing career.
I think you are again being lazy and generalising. There is no rule to ‘you can’t assume someone can be a super coach just because you work for a genius’. That is a generalisation. On other occasions, that very assumption has been made. Carlos Quieroz left as United’s assistant to manage Real Madrid. Steve Clarke built a very impressive reputation from his coaching days where he was in the conversation for manager roles. Phil Neville was similar. The devil is in the detail of each case. And in Arteta’s particularly case, he had developed a growing reputation and a lot of people in the game felt he would go on to become a top manager. That isn’t said of every assistant. But it was said of Arteta, so in the case of Arteta - that is what actually matters.
 

B20

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Arteta wasn't hired solely for being ex-arsenal. Otherwise, they might well have given it to henry, campbell or similar.

Nonetheless, I think there is a good chance Arsenal would have looked elsewhere if Pep's assistant had no former ties to the club. They saw a talent and decided that 'arsenal dna' could stand in for 'any kind of managerial experience' in their search.

Solskjaer and Lampard weren't blank slates either, who got it in a lottery with other random ex-players. They had something to consider for them. But also here, it was clearly the club connection that swayed the decision for them over other candidates.

And in all three cases, I think it is fair to say that they judged the club connection with more weight than they ought to have.
 

do.ob

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I think you are again being lazy and generalising. There is no rule to ‘you can’t assume someone can be a super coach just because you work for a genius’. That is a generalisation. On other occasions, that very assumption has been made. Carlos Quieroz left as United’s assistant to manage Real Madrid. Steve Clarke built a very impressive reputation from his coaching days where he was in the conversation for manager roles. Phil Neville was similar. The devil is in the detail of each case. And in Arteta’s particularly case, he had developed a growing reputation and a lot of people in the game felt he would go on to become a top manager. That isn’t said of every assistant. But it was said of Arteta, so in the case of Arteta - that is what actually matters.
So you're disproving me by listing examples of former assistants of all-time greats that couldn't make it big after taking over as head coach themselves? I'm not saying that being Pep's assistant disqualifies Arteta from anything, but it doesn't count much for someone's chances as a head coach either. To give someone with absolutely no experience on the job a big post such as Arsenal's you need a certain confidence in that person. Where do you think that comes from with Arteta? Between doing someone else's bidding and having interesting ideas in principle and being able to do the entire job yourself is a world of difference.

It's clear as day when you watch the path to the top of coaches who have turned out the way that people were hoping Arteta would: e.g. Tuchel, Ten Hag and Nagelsmann. Everyone knew they were special, yet they still had to prove they could actually turn their ideas into success in the real world, at small clubs, before bigger ones took a chance on them.
 

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Who are the top managers today?

Pep, Klopp, Tuchel, Nagelsmann, Flick, Zidane and Ancelotti.

Second level- Poch, ETH, Mancini, Conte.
 

Rozay

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So you're disproving me by listing examples of former assistants of all-time greats that couldn't make it big after taking over as head coach themselves? I'm not saying that being Pep's assistant disqualifies Arteta from anything, but it doesn't count much for someone's chances as a head coach either. To give someone with absolutely no experience on the job a big post such as Arsenal's you need a certain confidence in that person. Where do you think that comes from with Arteta? Between doing someone else's bidding and having interesting ideas in principle and being able to do the entire job yourself is a world of difference.

It's clear as day when you watch the path to the top of coaches who have turned out the way that people were hoping Arteta would: e.g. Tuchel, Ten Hag and Nagelsmann. Everyone knew they were special, yet they still had to prove they could actually turn their ideas into success in the real world, at small clubs, before bigger ones took a chance on them.
This is all irrelevant because Arsenal actually hired Arteta! And Real Madrid actually hired Quieroz etc. ehat they achieved afterwards is not the point. The point is, a club can like what they see in an assistant and hire them as the manager. Which is what happened with Quieroz and what happened with Arteta. They could also hire managers based on impressive careers. Which is what happened with Emery before Arteta. Who failed. A club will ultimately appoint the man they want and believe in. The formula that you keep trying to insist upon does not bind any club. As demonstrated by the subject of this particular discussion.
 

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This might be a strange take but I reckon the money in the Premier League hasn't helped this. Too many promising but not yet ready managers are poached from abroad these days by middling English teams who are basically quick-sand because their tactical set-up doesn't fit a team that are also rans in their league. So it all comes down to catching fire with a mediocre team at the right time that a better vacancy arises, otherwise they end up treading water too long and the chance is gone.

Go back 15 years, pre-Chelsea Mourinho or pre-Liverpool Benitez were never going to be enticed by the projects at Bolton or Birmingham City or Portsmouth, but the comparative teams now can pay big money and offer a decent transfer kitty. The result is you get promising managers who might have matured elsewhere jumping to Britain to take over the 13th or 14th best team in the division in a competition were money is king. Recent managers like Marco Silva and Hassenhuttl have systems that are designed for better teams in the division but they can't stake their claim for those jobs managing at the bottom end of the table. There's obviously some exceptions.