Why don't the big 6 gamble on players?

[TheReligion]

What I mean by this is why, when it looks so obvious at times, do they not go for certain players but instead move for them after they have become a star.

A few examples;

van Dijk - why was no one in for him when he left Celtic?

Maguire - another obvious one who left Hull for a pittance

Maddison - no one interested when he was at Norwich, now he's the next big thing

Are bigger clubs more risk averse these days and would sooner spend more money in the comfort of knowing a Leicester or Southampton has tried the player first in the PL?

 

[Snow]

Don't know what United and Chelsea were thinking regarding Maguire and VVD but Arsenal and Spurs didn't feel like spending any money and City already spent a ton on defenders, including a CB. Could actually have done with Maguire instead of Otamendi despite of all that but despite City being this blood money club they do still like having players for long as they are conjuring up an image and need stability so it makes sense to keep some sort of spine if you can (Hart, Kompany, De Bruyne, Silva, Fernandinho, Aguero).

Regarding VVD to Southampton, they had Koeman as manager and were following so going from Groningen to Celtic to Southampton is steady progress.

I think it's mostly us and Chelsea that have done poorly as well as Arsenal at not being able to spot a defender for years and years. There's plenty of value in the market but scouting and management is mostly likely the answer here (our scouting has very recently been revamped).

 

[0le]

We are gambling on players, for example we have bought Fred, Bailly, James and Dalot.

 

[adexkola]

Because they're pussies

 

[FootyGirl88]

liverpool - Robertson
Spurs - Dele Alli, sessengon
Man Utd - James

 

[charlenefan]

What I mean by this is why, when it looks so obvious at times, do they not go for certain players but instead move for them after they have become a star.

A few examples;

van Dijk - why was no one in for him when he left Celtic?

Maguire - another obvious one who left Hull for a pittance

Maddison - no one interested when he was at Norwich, now he's the next big thing

Are bigger clubs more risk averse these days and would sooner spend more money in the comfort of knowing a Leicester or Southampton has tried the player first in the PL?

I think it's the opposite, they were adverse to it at the time, now though it's a different story

Van Dijk cost Southampton 13m when he joined them from Celtic in 2015
Maguire cost Leicester 17m when he moved from Hull in 2017
Maddison cost Leicester 20m when he moved from a Championship club last year

All these signings occurred before transfer fees went bat shit crazy. Which top 4 (because it was a top 4 back in 2015) would spend 13m on a CB from Scotland when at that time the British record for a CB was 30m and that got you a 2003 Rio Ferdinand? 13m back then was a lot of money for a CB from Scotland. Likewise Maguire, 17m for him from relegated Hull City was a lot of money. Now top 6 clubs know that it'll cost 75-80m for a top class CB you can almost guarantee scouting for 'hidden gems' will be intensified, likewise getting talents like Maddison from the lower leagues

Back in 2015 the likes of Southampton/Leicester had to shop in the Scottish leagues because they obviously couldn't compete in the same market that clubs like United used, now with transfer fees the way they are your Southamptons and Leicester's will no doubt find the likes of United shopping in Aldi with them simply because they (United) can't afford Harrods every week

 

[Pink Moon]

I think it's the opposite, they were adverse to it at the time, now though it's a different story

Van Dijk cost Southampton 13m when he joined them from Celtic in 2015
Maguire cost Leicester 17m when he moved from Hull in 2017
Maddison cost Leicester 20m when he moved from a Championship club last year

All these signings occurred before transfer fees went bat shit crazy. Which top 4 (because it was a top 4 back in 2015) would spend 13m on a CB from Scotland when at that time the British record for a CB was 30m and that got you a 2003 Rio Ferdinand? 13m back then was a lot of money for a CB from Scotland. Likewise Maguire, 17m for him from relegated Hull City was a lot of money. Now top 6 clubs know that it'll cost 75-80m for a top class CB you can almost guarantee scouting for 'hidden gems' will be intensified, likewise getting talents like Maddison from the lower leagues

Back in 2015 the likes of Southampton/Leicester had to shop in the Scottish leagues because they obviously couldn't compete in the same market that clubs like United used, now with transfer fees the way they are your Southamptons and Leicester's will no doubt find the likes of United shopping in Aldi with them simply because they (United) can't afford Harrods every week

To be fair, Alan Hutton went straight to Spurs for 9 million in 2008 and he was never anywhere near as good a player as van Dijk was. I know he wasn't a CB but he was still a defender playing in the SPL.

I've personally always felt it was arrogance more than anything else. 'Oh he's good in Scotland? Well it's a farmers league so he's still crap' kinda thing. Arsenal have finally bucked the trend and cottoned on to the fact that it makes a lot more sense to sign Tierney directly from Celtic for 25 million than watch him go to Southampton and then have to pay 60, 70 or 80 million in a few years time.

 

[roonster09]

With the increase in transfer fee, I think clubs will take risks on lower league signings.

 

[Ekeke]

What I mean by this is why, when it looks so obvious at times, do they not go for certain players but instead move for them after they have become a star.

A few examples;

van Dijk - why was no one in for him when he left Celtic?

Maguire - another obvious one who left Hull for a pittance

Maddison - no one interested when he was at Norwich, now he's the next big thing

Are bigger clubs more risk averse these days and would sooner spend more money in the comfort of knowing a Leicester or Southampton has tried the player first in the PL?

Plenty of players in Maguire and Maddison's situations were bought by the top clubs. Just because they werent specifically the ones bought doesnt mean clubs werent trying. The likes of Walcott, Oxlaide-Chamberlain, Alli, Walker and Bale were all signed as young players in the lower leagues. But those were some of the ones that worked out, just like with Maddison. Spurs also signed the likes of Kyle Naughton who wasnt so successful.

Van Dijk? Not so many examples of top premier league clubs signing from the Scottish league. Again Spurs tried with Hutton, didnt work out. The point is some clubs at least were signing players in their situation, they just didnt develop as well as the ones you are specifically talking about. Is it because they moved to a big club too early? Or were they the wrong players? Sometimes hard to say.

 

[TheeAma12]

Chelsea did Cahil from Bolton, Azpi from Marsille all for pittance. Lately our transfer strategy has been shit so we haven't been able to spot any real gem

 

[Scroto Baggins]

A lot of clubs gamble on young talent. Look at the team Lampard put out against Norwich, Mount, Pulisic are both 20. Abrahams 21. Looking over at Spurs Winks has been there for a while now, but started as a youth product. Walker Peters, that young Skip kid, Alli and Kane both started there young. Arsenal have Guendozi, Holding and Maitland Niles, Pool, TAA, even City have Foden.

The big six cannot buy up every single promising young player. It just isnt possible. And some players would probably take a serious look at what sort of game time they would be getting at the top 6 clubs. And elect to play for someone where they are going to get a lot more game time to grow their game. Sure as a young player you take a pay cut, but you walk into the starting 11 rather than sitting on the bench behind superstars.

 

[giorno]

On VVD, please note that before 2016 he wasn't better than Phil Jones when United first signed him. And he was 23 when he moved to Southampton. There was nothing indicating he would turn into the player he's become since. His improvement has been staggering

 

[Red_toad]

What I mean by this is why, when it looks so obvious at times, do they not go for certain players but instead move for them after they have become a star.

A few examples;

van Dijk - why was no one in for him when he left Celtic?

Maguire - another obvious one who left Hull for a pittance

Maddison - no one interested when he was at Norwich, now he's the next big thing

Are bigger clubs more risk averse these days and would sooner spend more money in the comfort of knowing a Leicester or Southampton has tried the player first in the PL?

La Arse just signed Celtics Captain are they not one of the big 6?

I don't get this thread, I mean there's so many examples of the big 6 buying players considered a risk, but you choose to focus on players who weren't bought by them. They can't just sign every single promising player, so will get purchased by the likes of Leicester, Wolves etc, that's the way the game works...

 

[Oxeki]

You have to also look at the fact that due to fees spiralling out of control, the top 6 are starting to look inward.

for example, 4 of our starting 11 in the first 2 games were either 21 or younger (with two teenagers).

Probably on Man city can afford not to shop in the lower leagues or give their academy kids game time.

 

[jus2nang]

Arsenal just gambled on Pepe, no?

How much did you guys spend on Daniel James, could that be considered a gamble?

 

[Bwuk]

On VVD, please note that before 2016 he wasn't better than Phil Jones when United first signed him. And he was 23 when he moved to Southampton. There was nothing indicating he would turn into the player he's become since. His improvement has been staggering

If you watched Van Dijk at Celtic he was much better than anything Jones has shown here. He literally looked like a man playing with boys.

I agree OP. Loads of players at weaker sides who could improve us but we never take a punt.

 

[Bwuk]

Arsenal just gambled on Pepe, no?

How much did you guys spend on Daniel James, could that be considered a gamble?

How is 80m for Pepe a gamble?

 

[giorno]

If you watched Van Dijk at Celtic he was much better than anything Jones has shown here. He literally looked like a man playing with boys.

I agree OP. Loads of players at weaker sides who could improve us but we never take a punt.

Yeah but so did a bunch of other nothing players

VVD was the classic player with great physical qualities and good with his feet but his positioning, reading of the game, decision making and concentration were erratic, and he always had a dumb mistake in him

 

[Mb194dc]

20/20 hindsight.

There is no way of knowing for sure how players from weaker leagues or smaller teams, will adapt to a top team / league.

Kezman and Alfonso Alves spring to mind, sure there are loads of examples of players who looked amazing then totally flopped.

 

[charlenefan]

To be fair, Alan Hutton went straight to Spurs for 9 million in 2008 and he was never anywhere near as good a player as van Dijk was. I know he wasn't a CB but he was still a defender playing in the SPL.

Well that just proves my point, in 2008 Spurs were the equivalent of Leicester now (minus the remarkable recent league title of course). Spurs had to shop in that market because at that time there was no way they could compete for a RB that Man Utd (or the other at that time Top 4 would have wanted)

 

[Bwuk]

Yeah but so did a bunch of other nothing players

VVD was the classic player with great physical qualities and good with his feet but his positioning, reading of the game, decision making and concentration were erratic, and he always had a dumb mistake in him

Can't say I agree. VvD was easily the best player I've seen play in the SPL since Henrik Larsson.

I was also surprised a bigger side didn't pick up Wanyama. He was excellent for Celtic, good at Southampton and did well at Spurs before his injuries. When he moved we could of done with him.

 

[romufc]

Some players need to play week in week out to get the confidence.

Players all mature and develop at different rates. Look at Phil Jones, Chris Smalling - would they have developed differently if they went to another prem club before United?

With CB's they need to be playing weekly, and young CB's are not that often trusted in the bigger teams because 1/2 mistakes are so widely highlighted.

Look at Michael Keane - Went to Burley and learnt his trade, now in the England squad.

 

[Skills]

It's because players need game time to improve, not sitting on the bench 'learning'. We gambled 20m on a RB from Portugal last season, and have already replaced him with a 50m player within 12 months.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

It’s survivorship bias. For every gem plucked from the lower leagues who goes on to be top quality, there are ten that flopped, never to be heard of again.

 

[Camilo]

VVD looked crap at Celtic. I don't think anyone thought for a second it would work out the way it has..

 

[Skills]

On VVD, please note that before 2016 he wasn't better than Phil Jones when United first signed him. And he was 23 when he moved to Southampton. There was nothing indicating he would turn into the player he's become since. His improvement has been staggering

Van Djiks improvement even at Liverpool has been staggering. Nobody would've put him amongst the best defenders in the world before he joined Pool.

 

[PhilMcD79]

They do but they can't buy every promising player. Also many of the promising players have made an impact in a lesser league so it's possible the big clubs how they perform in a better league with one of the lesser teams like Van Dijk to Southampton.

 

[Bwuk]

VVD looked crap at Celtic. I don't think anyone thought for a second it would work out the way it has..

no he didn't. If you thought this you clearly never watched him.

 

[VorZakone]

VVD looked crap at Celtic. I don't think anyone thought for a second it would work out the way it has..

 

[Sky1981]

What I mean by this is why, when it looks so obvious at times, do they not go for certain players but instead move for them after they have become a star.

A few examples;

van Dijk - why was no one in for him when he left Celtic?

Maguire - another obvious one who left Hull for a pittance

Maddison - no one interested when he was at Norwich, now he's the next big thing

Are bigger clubs more risk averse these days and would sooner spend more money in the comfort of knowing a Leicester or Southampton has tried the player first in the PL?

We're laughing at pool for being mugged 75m for vvd just 2 years ago.

And no unless you have a crystal ball the odds of gambling like that probably is around 1 in 10. For every maguire there's 9 other cb that didnt cut it. We took a gamble on baily, jones and smailing and we still hasnt fully recovered.

Even if we pick the right horse, we still need to feed em, race them, whip em, educate them... obviously metaphorically.

We can afford the 10m gamble, but can we afford playing a 4 years ago maguire week in week out for him to become today's maguire?

 

[Mr. MUJAC]

Most clubs take gambles on players and you could make a list for most.

But there will always be others who come good and are missed...you can't take a risk on everyone.

 

[blue blue]

The transfer market and football in general in the last 20 years has seen a huge influx of investment, much of which comes from abroad and TV revenues. The increase in club turnovers has lead to clubs being run by accountants who are risk averse. The new management structures are controlled top down and tried and tested players are viewed as less of a risk.

 

[Denis79]

I think some of these players chose lesser clubs to be guaranteed playtime, instead of trying to develop/break in a first 11 from the benches of top teams.

 

[Patience]

Clubs gamble on players every transfer window.

What your post means is this:


'Hey - some players who were bought by slightly smaller clubs ended up being really good."


Which is about as obvious as football opinion gets.

 

[Robbie Boy]

liverpool - Robertson
Spurs - Dele Alli, sessengon
Man Utd - James

Tierney, Joe Gomez.

 

[Robbie Boy]

Clubs gamble on players every transfer window.

What your post means is this:


'Hey - some players who were bought by slightly smaller clubs ended up being really good."


Which is about as obvious as football opinion gets.

Spot on. The OP is utter nonsense.

 

[Holocene]

They do gamble on players, you're just cherry picking the players they didn't gamble on. Can't buy them all.

Case and point:

liverpool - Robertson
Spurs - Dele Alli, sessengon
Man Utd - James

 

[Denis79]

Clubs gamble on players every transfer window.

What your post means is this:


'Hey - some players who were bought by slightly smaller clubs ended up being really good."


Which is about as obvious as football opinion gets.

Think he means in terms of buying lower league, non-pl proven, no experience in European Cups players, a la James, Della Ali, Vardy.

 

[MadDogg]

Maguire is the one that does annoy me as he was the one I saw for myself. It was extremely obvious that he was 'worth' a hell of a lot more than what Leicester paid Hull, and although it wasn't 100% certain he would succeed at the top level the odds were in his favour. The same summer we spent about double that on Lindelof who was a bigger risk.

 

[Schmeichel's Cartwheel]

Maguire is the one that does annoy me as he was the one I saw for myself. It was extremely obvious that he was 'worth' a hell of a lot more than what Leicester paid Hull, and although it wasn't 100% certain he would succeed at the top level the odds were in his favour. The same summer we spent about double that on Lindelof who was a bigger risk.

Lindelof was a Mourinho signing. Jose was never great at spotting players. Robertson went cheap that same summer. He wanted Maguire just a year later.