Will the Premier League soon have a 'Top 7' or will a big club drop out?

[RedPed]

With all the speculation and hype around the Newcastle takeover, they could obviously go on to bigger and better things or just end up being a solid top to midtable performer. Big names are now being touted at the club though. It took City a few years to get going but then again Leicester City have done really well with the resources afforded to them in such a short space of time and have shown that you don't necessarily need big money signings on inflated wages to compete.

Do you think that Newcastle United could break into the Premier League's top tier and make it more competitive or is it more likely that a current incumbent will just drop out?

Personally, I don't hold out any hope for Spurs as I just don't see them progressing anymore especially with the Kane speculation and I think Arsenal are going to go through a very lean period. Perhaps the league will become more competitive and less predictable over the next few years, who knows?

 

[Igor Drefljak]

Spurs have peaked, I could see them dropping out

 

[ClaytonBlackmoorLeftPeg]

Spurs have peaked, I could see them dropping out

are we putting Arsenal into this ‘top 6’.

whilst the morals around Newcastle’s takeover is another matter, but more competition is good for the league. Would be good to get away from this label of ‘top4’, ‘top6’ etc.

 

[GuybrushThreepwood]

It will be interesting to see whether Everton can break free from their current 'no man's land' position. I wonder what it's been like for Everton fans during the past few years knowing that their club has had no chance of getting relegated or finishing in the top 6.

They haven't been in any serious relegation danger since Moyes's 2nd full season in charge in 2003/2004 when they finished 17th, they've been continuously in the top flight since 1954, but they haven't won a trophy since 1995. Plus they have had the third largest net spend on transfer fees during the past 5 years after City and Utd. In addition to trying to progress in the league (if they can), if there is one club in the country who should heavily target domestic cup competitions, it is them.

 

[RoyH1]

Spurs have peaked, I could see them dropping out

I see that as a possibility too. A lot of their top performers are either old or injury prone and I don't think that Mourinho has it in him anymore to lift a club to a higher level.
When Levy publishes his memoirs in twenty years time, I can already picture the line "...getting rid of Poch was the biggest mistake of my career..."

 

[RedPed]

are we putting Arsenal into this ‘top 6’.

whilst the morals around Newcastle’s takeover is another matter, but more competition is good for the league. Would be good to get away from this label of ‘top4’, ‘top6’ etc.

Just to clarify, the 'traditional' top 6 has been Man United, Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham, though there might be a case for arguing we already have a top 7 now depending on how you regard Leicester City's status.

 

[rotherham_red]

Either way, I welcome it. It'll reignite a fixture that has been on the wane for the last 20 years or so. Those late-90s games between the clubs were absolute crackers, and I think/hope the standards will be driven further up as a result.

I'm also intrigued as to how a move like this will impact the development of the Europa League as a competition. Will it bring back the glory era of the UEFA Cup in the 80s, or just exacerbate the inequalities further, where the best English side left from the fight for Top 4 is the de facto favourite every season?

 

[Web of Bissaka]

? Isn't Arsenal sort of... slip out already. Spurs is likely to follow suit.

Top 5 now.

Newcastle is likely to rise slowly, but doubt it'll breach the bracket quickly just in their first 2-3 years.

 

[Wiltord02]

Well you have a top2 at the moment with the four "big teams" below needing serious investment.

United and Chelsea are able to spend big money and probably will. Spurs' new stadium will hinder investment.

Arsenal are run like a business with zero ambition for the top trophies. This is shown by our choice in managers post Wenger.

 

[Uniquim]

Yeah, Arsenal is not in a great position at the moment. Not sure about Tottenham at the moment.

I think, and hope Leicester will continue to perform.

Man Utd, Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea to stay a part of the top tier.
Chelsea look like they'll have an amazing team in a year or two.

I also think Wolverhampton will continue to knock on the door.

So maybe like this:
1 | Liverpool, Man City, Man Utd, Chelsea
2 | Chelsea, Leicester
3 | Arsenal, Spurs, Wolverhampton

and then wherever Newcastle lands in the middle of all this.

 

[Melbourne Red]

Either way, I welcome it. It'll reignite a fixture that has been on the wane for the last 20 years or so. Those late-90s games between the clubs were absolute crackers, and I think/hope the standards will be driven further up as a result.

I'm also intrigued as to how a move like this will impact the development of the Europa League as a competition. Will it bring back the glory era of the UEFA Cup in the 80s, or just exacerbate the inequalities further, where the best English side left from the fight for Top 4 is the de facto favourite every season?

Hard to see how it can regain anything near it's previous prestige given it'll still be also-rans competing in it rather than the 2nd best team in each country.

 

[R0nald0]

ridiculous if we're tiering the league that we don't have a "top 2" - Liverpool and Man City re so far ahead of the rest.

If the league started again now, I'd be 95% sure that Liverpool and City were the top 2

the next 5 places would be contested by Man Utd, Chelsea, Spurs, Arsenal, Leicester

Then another drop to Everton and Wolves

Then 11 clubs at random!

 

[The Purley King]

If I was a Spurs or Arsenal fan, I'd be very worried for the next couple of years.
Spurs picked the nut worst time to extend themselves financially and have now got an awful manager that will cost them a fortune to sack (and they will have to do that in the next 12 months). Prize asset in Kane is deteriorating in value with constant injuries and corona virus most likely dampening transfer fees.
Arsenal seem to harbour no ambition at all to achieve anything beyond a top4 place, which they haven't got in the last 3 years (5th, 6th, 5th) and won't be getting this year either. Four years is a long time to be outside of the top 4.
I know a similar argument can be made for us (2nd, 6th, 6th) but we seem to have got some sort of plan now and more importantly can afford to keep throwing money at the situation.

In terms of ability to remain in "top" classification in the next 3 years I'd say an ordered list would be:
City
Pool
Utd
Chelsea
Spurs
Leicester
Arsenal

Leicester are a difficult one to place, as Rodgers has done well and they have got decent financial backing. Could easily move them above Spurs I guess. Newcastle will take a couple of years at least to challenge imo, even with unlimited funds.

 

[charlenefan]

Based on the table Spurs and Arsenal have already dropped out

 

[Stacks]

Just to clarify, the 'traditional' top 6 has been Man United, Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham, though there might be a case for arguing we already have a top 7 now depending on how you regard Leicester City's status.

Yeah, Arsenal is not in a great position at the moment. Not sure about Tottenham at the moment.

I think, and hope Leicester will continue to perform.

Man Utd, Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea to stay a part of the top tier.
Chelsea look like they'll have an amazing team in a year or two.

I also think Wolverhampton will continue to knock on the door.

So maybe like this:
1 | Liverpool, Man City, Man Utd, Chelsea
2 | Chelsea, Leicester
3 | Arsenal, Spurs, Wolverhampton

and then wherever Newcastle lands in the middle of all this.

ridiculous if we're tiering the league that we don't have a "top 2" - Liverpool and Man City re so far ahead of the rest.

If the league started again now, I'd be 95% sure that Liverpool and City were the top 2

the next 5 places would be contested by Man Utd, Chelsea, Spurs, Arsenal, Leicester

Then another drop to Everton and Wolves

Then 11 clubs at random!

Teams that are 30 odd points off the top team are being touted as part of the same tier? Until the likes of Chelsea,United, Arsenal or Spurs get anywhere near 90 points they should not be in the conversation.
there is clearly a top 2. then there is a 5 or so competing for 3rd/4th.

 

[SilentWitness]

It will be interesting to see whether Everton can break free from their current 'no man's land' position. I wonder what it's been like for Everton fans during the past few years knowing that their club has had no chance of getting relegated or finishing in the top 6.

They haven't been in any serious relegation danger since Moyes's 2nd full season in charge in 2003/2004 when they finished 17th, they've been continuously in the top flight since 1954, but they haven't won a trophy since 1995. Plus they have had the third largest net spend on transfer fees during the past 5 years after City and Utd. In addition to trying to progress in the league (if they can), if there is one club in the country who should heavily target domestic cup competitions, it is them.

I'm interested too especially now we have a man like Ancelotti managing us. The last few games before this break though showed that his stubborness with 4-4-2 will cost us if we persist with it after a transfer window (Also have no idea how this is going to hamper us). He stated a few times that he chose this system because it is the best one for the players we have and I'd tend to agree as we have got the best out of DCL and Richy like that but our midfield is too weak. We miss Gueye loads and need to replace him ASAP. I hope Gbamin will be good but there's a chance that this muscle injury could ruin him (23/24 and a serious muscle injury is a bit worrying in terms of it being a recurring theme). We wasted loads of money during the Koeman and Allardyce era and most of Silvas reign was trying to get rid of the deadwood that they bought. Made a decent profit on some of them and in terms of a player like Richarlison he is worth what we spent so I don't mind. We do have a squad with potential though. Digne + Gomes are both going to be moving into the peaks of their career and players like DCL, Richy and Holgate are really good young players. I hope we take time nurturing these talents under Ancelotti and I think he's a sensible bloke with transfersso I think we have enough to make a push for Europe.

I don't think there is going to be a top 4, 6. 8 as there traditionally has been anymore. It's going to cycle with big clubs taking dips and a surprise team popping up in the higher positions i.e Leicester, Wolves, Everton etc.

 

[Uniquim]

Teams that are 30 odd points off the top team are being touted as part of the same tier? Until the likes of Chelsea,United, Arsenal or Spurs get anywhere near 90 points they should not be in the conversation.
there is clearly a top 2. then there is a 5 or so competing for 3rd/4th.

Liverpool (82) --- City (57). There's a 25 point gap between those two as well.


City (57), Chelsea (48), Man Utd (45) are not far apart at all. And Liverpool are unlikely to dominate like this every year. Hence, they're grouped together. There's less between the top teams than it seems. United & Chelsea are both on a upward trajectory as I see it. With United finally being more penetrative with the addition of Bruno, and possible return of Pogba. Chelsea with a talented young team that will keep improving. City & Liverpool have both shown they are good enough.

But look at the points total change for City from last year to this year. Or Liverpool's change from 2017-18 to 2018-19. (Increase of 22 pts).

 

[TsuWave]

United has been looking shaky since 2013

 

[RedPed]

Teams that are 30 odd points off the top team are being touted as part of the same tier? Until the likes of Chelsea,United, Arsenal or Spurs get anywhere near 90 points they should not be in the conversation.
there is clearly a top 2. then there is a 5 or so competing for 3rd/4th.

Anybody can have a freakishly good, bad or indifferent season. So the gaps have been large over the last few seasons. I don't see that continuing over the coming years.