Would the Super League be a success?

[Revan]

I’m gonna take a guess and say they checked with each other, made a load of assumptions and didn’t question any fans. For if they did we surely would have heard about it

Honestly, despite the current popular's belief that bankers are stupid, I would be extremely surprised if that is the case.

I guess we will see it very soon. If they miscalculated it, then they are screwed. England's league system has all the rights to put these clubs (when they come back) at the bottom of the pyramid.

But, I think that they have calculated well and this is going to work. There will be local protests and all that, but as long as subscriptions from TV audiences (that don't even need to be in the country of origin) will be high, it is all good from their PoV. And local fans will eventually come back, they always do. For many who have been waiting for years to get a season ticket, now it will be the chance so I don't expect the stadiums to be half-empty (except Emptihad, of course).

 

[Annihilate Now!]

It's comparable to the first for all competitions. In reality teams and players will be happy to win it because it's a competition and they are competitors, they celebrate a victory on the training pitch. Then history is by definition in the past, I don't think that the first edition of a competition where the best teams face each others will be seen as a joke after the 15th edition, for me taht's the perpective that we need to keep in mind, we are acting as if the competitions that we love never had a first edition. Uruguay winning the first Jules Rimet trophy is still respected by football fans that are into football history.

Of course - so the question is, how long until it becomes/feels on par with a CL win? 5 years? less...

Who knows, I guess the better the football and competition, the stronger the immediate prestige.

 

[OverratedOpinion]

It would initially be a success because of firstly being a new thing with a bunch of press around it and secondly having clubs who currently have a huge name.

The future would depend on what happens with the domestic leagues but more than likely the initial boost of cash and ability to sign the best players would mean that huge amounts of young fans would be drawn to the participating clubs meaning that it would become sustainable.

In short more than likely it would be a significant financial success. There is obviously a risk that the uncompetitive nature of the sport would signal a declining interest in the game and mean that ultimately these clubs would be at the top of a less commercially successful game. They will not care that Nottingham Forrest struggle to survive though.

 

[JPRouve]

Of course - so the question is, how long until it becomes/feels on par with a CL win? 5 years? less...

Who knows, I guess the better the football and competition, the stronger the immediate prestige.

To be fair it could be one or two edition. We will inevitably compare the quality of football between both competition and decreet that one of them is for farmers.

 

[Eendracht maakt macht]

If the best players will play in it which they probably will then of course it will become a success.

 

[FreakyJim]

Apparently, this has been a well calculated move. Not only 12 top clubs but even JP Morgan is on board with an initial loan of 3.5 billion dollar. Personally, I think there's no way they'd back this venture without market research suggesting that this is a certain success.

Then again, you could imagine that those investment bankers and superrich investors are living in a bubble and severely underestimated the intensity of the backlash. Maybe they thought the fans would rebel a bit but ultimately give in, like they always do. Maybe they thought UEFA and FIFA would give in or that the leagues wouldn't want to risk losing them? Maybe they thought Bayern, PSG and Dortmund would surrender their resistance and immediately join them? That players would happily accept not playing WC, EC and CA anymore if they get paid more?

Or did they actually anticipate all that and built their calculations solely on the Asian and American market, happily accepting with fierce hostility of domestic fans? In the end, can they actually make this happen without the European fan base and against the resistance of so many stakeholders - fans, players, coaches, associations, politicians? Will star players accept not being able to play the WC, EC and CA?

Or are we just witnessing how the billionaire owners of the biggest football clubs and their entourage have finally completely detached from reality and overplayed their hands, football's equivalency to the Fyre festival?

Never in history of history has there ever been a stupid bank decision and a worthless marketing research.

 

[Siorac]

Had this discussion with the podcast chaps... Do you think that winning the first or second ESL (basically before it builds up its own history) will mean as much/feel just as special/incredible as winning the Champions League.

I said no - because there's no history to it. But others pointed out that history of the competition doesn't matter vs. history of the teams + difficult of winning it.

It would feel hollow because we've done literally nothing on the pitch to be in the competition in the first place.

 

[Dansk]

If it ends up coming to fruition and doesn't face some huge boycott from players and teams, it'll be a commercial success. Older fans who are deeply invested in the sport's history will be against it, but they're far outnumbered by the more casual fans who just want to see the best teams in the world play against eachother more than a handful of times per year. The ESL will make loads of money, and that's the goal.

 

[Sky1981]

Apparently, this has been a well calculated move. Not only 12 top clubs but even JP Morgan is on board with an initial loan of 3.5 billion dollar. Personally, I think there's no way they'd back this venture without market research suggesting that this is a certain success.

Then again, you could imagine that those investment bankers and superrich investors are living in a bubble and severely underestimated the intensity of the backlash. Maybe they thought the fans would rebel a bit but ultimately give in, like they always do. Maybe they thought UEFA and FIFA would give in or that the leagues wouldn't want to risk losing them? Maybe they thought Bayern, PSG and Dortmund would surrender their resistance and immediately join them? That players would happily accept not playing WC, EC and CA anymore if they get paid more?

Or did they actually anticipate all that and built their calculations solely on the Asian and American market, happily accepting with fierce hostility of domestic fans? In the end, can they actually make this happen without the European fan base and against the resistance of so many stakeholders - fans, players, coaches, associations, politicians? Will star players accept not being able to play the WC, EC and CA?

Or are we just witnessing how the billionaire owners of the biggest football clubs and their entourage have finally completely detached from reality and overplayed their hands, football's equivalency to the Fyre festival?

Jp Morgan doesnt give a feck about clubs. Whether it works or not the loan will need to be repaid. If clubs cant pay or the ESL sucks and can't attract enough bidders... they'll get the clubs. And chop and sell it to the highest bidder.

Becareful who you're dealing with. These guys are sharks.

 

[Ixion]

It will be a success for those 12 teams yes, that is obviously why they want to do it. It would be disastrous for anyone not included though so it depends on your point of view when judging success.

 

[Giggs86]

Of course it will be a success. Every single match will be a box office. No more boring CL fixtures.

 

[bosnian_red]

If it ends up coming to fruition and doesn't face some huge boycott from players and teams, it'll be a commercial success. Older fans who are deeply invested in the sport's history will be against it, but they're far outnumbered by the more casual fans who just want to see the best teams in the world play against eachother more than a handful of times per year. The ESL will make loads of money, and that's the goal.

The more casual fans would remain casual fans and not give a feck about 95% of the competition, is why it'll fail. Making every game a "big game" means every big game is in fact now a normal game and because there is no threat of relegation, no incentive to qualify, it'll all be very irrelevant very soon.

Especially if you look at how the finances are split up in tiers within the 20. Tier 1 clubs like United/Barca/Madrid would earn 300m a year whereas tier 3 clubs would earn a measly 112.5m. Tier 4 clubs at 100m. It's a disaster of a system that'll quickly come down to the few top clubs hoarding all the best players, all the money, and the rest of the league being irrelevant and playing glorified friendlies because they can't compete financially, but also have no threat of relegation, and unlike American sports, have no way of catching up to the top financially or the bottom side getting a "#1 draft pick out of college" who can turn the fortunes of those teams.

 

[He'sRaldo]

I reckon if it helps the struggling clubs fix their money problems then the owners will view it as a success regardless of its reception.

 

[90 + 5min]

Apparently, this has been a well calculated move. Not only 12 top clubs but even JP Morgan is on board with an initial loan of 3.5 billion dollar. Personally, I think there's no way they'd back this venture without market research suggesting that this is a certain success.

Then again, you could imagine that those investment bankers and superrich investors are living in a bubble and severely underestimated the intensity of the backlash. Maybe they thought the fans would rebel a bit but ultimately give in, like they always do. Maybe they thought UEFA and FIFA would give in or that the leagues wouldn't want to risk losing them? Maybe they thought Bayern, PSG and Dortmund would surrender their resistance and immediately join them? That players would happily accept not playing WC, EC and CA anymore if they get paid more?

Or did they actually anticipate all that and built their calculations solely on the Asian and American market, happily accepting with fierce hostility of domestic fans? In the end, can they actually make this happen without the European fan base and against the resistance of so many stakeholders - fans, players, coaches, associations, politicians? Will star players accept not being able to play the WC, EC and CA?

Or are we just witnessing how the billionaire owners of the biggest football clubs and their entourage have finally completely detached from reality and overplayed their hands, football's equivalency to the Fyre festival?

Everything that has been happening last 48 hours suggest otherwise.

They haven't done any research of fans and impact of that.

But I say. Go ahead. Move teams to Singapore, Malaysia, Japan, Shanghai (No offense to people from there). We start over again.

 

[LilyWhiteSpur]

It just so happens that they didn't have even one person with half a brain on board? This competition rewards success, just like any other competition does — you can win it, you'll get a trophy as well as a recognition. The issue is that it doesn't really punish failure, but this doesn't really matter for those who fight for the win.

This model works in many different sports and the competitiveness inside the league doesn't really struggle. That's not to say that I support it, I don't — but I just hate half-arsed arguments with no thought or time put into them.

This new league simply rewards being involved, you turn up and at the end you still get a huge pay day, Pep has nailed this "this is not sport" its simply an exhibition, the only trophy is for first, so by 1/3 of the season id say a lot of the league will be playing for nothing. I watch American football a lot and I love the spectacle and the game, but the format bores me and who actually wins the Superbowl has no effect on the teams I like, I have never seen the layout as a compititon its just an exhibition of games.

 

[cyberman]

Yes, and thats why its so dangerous

 

[NWRed]

A european 'super league' that has Spurs, Chelsea and City but not Ajax, Bayern or Benfica is a joke and I think would be treated as such by alot of fans. A league win is valued by fans and celebrated when won is because it is the most objective proof that you are the best, a knockout cup win is valued by fans and celebrated when won because of the sense of jepardy in a knockout tournament, the Champions League had big elements of both so was highly valued, this league has little of either sense of acheivement and I don't see how, once the novelty has worn off, it can be a success.

 

[Harry190]

Of course. It's a spectacle.

 

[monosierra]

No, they probably worked off the US sports model and thought they could apply it to 'soccer'.

I'm pretty sure the market forecasts included in JPM's offering focused on Asian and American markets, with the European market as a given (and a mature one too!). An ESL could appeal to American audiences used to the NFL format (Never mind the ungodly hours of live broadcasts) and a couple of billion of Chinese, Indian, Indonesian and more Asian audiences would equate ESL with CL prestige. Whether that is true is a different question. If broadcasters are leery, then the plan is dead in the water.

 

[LilyWhiteSpur]

Of course. It's a spectacle.

So are preseason tournaments, but its not sport, no where near it. This tournament is aimed at fans who like a spectacle and IMO not for a die hard fan of a club.

 

[largelyworried]

In terms of being a popular TV spectacle, I think it'll be successful for a while. First season I'd expect record TV ratings & big sponsorship details. That's what the owners care about.

But the concept has no shelf life in my opinion. Watching the European giants play each other is exciting because its rare. You might only get 10 major clashes between the big teams per season in Europe, since most CL games they play are actually against lesser teams. They tend to only happen in the later stages of the knockout section. If there's literally 100 big gun clashes per season, it'll stop being special real quick.

Plus the premier league will be hugely devalued. Imagine one team runs away with the league before Christmas like Liverpool did last year? Half a season with nothing to play for for most of the 20 teams. What do points matter if your points total is immaterial? Chasing the top 4 hasn't exactly been good for football, it has at least generated a few decent sub-plots year after year and kept some interest in the league. I can imagine the league dying on its feet in terms of interest, same way the FA Cup has done.

 

[11101]

Imagine how big the NFL would be if anybody outside America gave a shit about it. That's what the ESL will be.

 

[Shark]

So are preseason tournaments, but its not sport, no where near it. This tournament is aimed at fans who like a spectacle and IMO not for a die hard fan of a club.

That's why it'll attract a lot of younger fans/kids. It's going to turn football into WWE wrestling in terms of sporting depth.

 

[Harry190]

So are preseason tournaments, but its not sport, no where near it. This tournament is aimed at fans who like a spectacle and IMO not for a die hard fan of a club.

What's a die hard fan of a club? Someone who doesn't care about their club winning because they don't have a habit of winning?

 

[LilyWhiteSpur]

What's a die hard fan of a club? Someone who doesn't care about their club winning because they don't have a habit of winning?

Someone who knows the history of the club, the rivalry's etc.

I have no idea what your second bit is about but I guess its a dig at Tottenham which tbh wasn't really called for, but suit yourself.

 

[LilyWhiteSpur]

That's why it'll attract a lot of younger fans/kids. It's going to turn football into WWE wrestling in terms of sporting depth.

Scripted football .

 

[utdalltheway]

Imagine how big the NFL would be if anybody outside America gave a shit about it. That's what the ESL will be.

Hard to imagine, in some ways. NFL's not big outside the US because the glitz and glamour would wear off. You need substance, not 2 hours of ads and 1 hour of playtime. I find NFL unwatchable on TV.
I've been to a few games live too. It's all a great craic but the on field "show" is just that. The tailgating is much more fun.
Same for ice hockey and NBA and MLB.
"MAKE SOME NOISE!" fcuk off!

 

[harms]

This new league simply rewards being involved, you turn up and at the end you still get a huge pay day, Pep has nailed this "this is not sport" its simply an exhibition, the only trophy is for first, so by 1/3 of the season id say a lot of the league will be playing for nothing. I watch American football a lot and I love the spectacle and the game, but the format bores me and who actually wins the Superbowl has no effect on the teams I like, I have never seen the layout as a compititon its just an exhibition of games.

So, it does reward success, which was my point. And I don't like the format at all.

 

[pcaming]

Asia and USA markets alone will make this a big success, and I'm pretty sure a lot of EU will take it in.

 

[Harry190]

Someone who knows the history of the club, the rivalry's etc.

I have no idea what your second bit is about but I guess its a dig at Tottenham which tbh wasn't really called for, but suit yourself.

It was. I couldn't help myself. Apologies.

Why would one prevent the other? The logic is tenuous. A die-hard follows the club, that's it. If you don't, you're not a die-hard. It's an absolute.

 

[northernfan]

I'm not sure how it would not be Successful. This is going to be a T.V. bonanza. Major club teams playing weekly. World wide numbers are going to be ridiculous. English fans may protest at the door but that won't affect the Asian, North American or South American numbers. My understanding is that they will still be playing in the P.L. In 5 years, European football will be the Super Cup and Europa Cup.

 

[Hansa]

It would initially be a success because of firstly being a new thing with a bunch of press around it and secondly having clubs who currently have a huge name.

The future would depend on what happens with the domestic leagues but more than likely the initial boost of cash and ability to sign the best players would mean that huge amounts of young fans would be drawn to the participating clubs meaning that it would become sustainable.

Yeah, but I'm thinking: What will the atmosphere be like? If English fans boycott the damned thing, the games wouldn't exactly have an electric atmosphere. In contrast, if the fan groups/ultras around Europe (Germany, France, Turkey, etc) get their act together in what becomes the new Champions League, the Super League might look seriously uncool, sedate and boring in comparison, at least for us Europeans. One can hope, anyway.

 

[LilyWhiteSpur]

So, it does reward success, which was my point. And I don't like the format at all.

Yeah but the trophy has no history, 15 of the teams qualified for this league for being rich and having big fan bases or stadia. The reward the owners of these clubs want is getting paid bucket loads of cash year in year out with no fear of that money not appearing due to lack of qualification. by doing so they have shafted all the teams they have left behind, they have shat on every bit of history and hero's those clubs have, United more than any other club should know the sacrifice a few went to to play in a REAL European Cup.

 

[OverratedOpinion]

Yeah, but I'm thinking: What will the atmosphere be like? If English fans boycott the damned thing, the games wouldn't exactly have an electric atmosphere. In contrast, if the fan groups/ultras around Europe (Germany, France, Turkey, etc) get their act together in what becomes the new Champions League, the Super League might look seriously uncool, sedate and boring in comparison, at least for us Europeans. One can hope, anyway.

I hope so but I just think there will always be enough casual fans to fill the stadiums for these games.

I have just seen too many moments of outrage like this eventually subside. Maybe this is different but I am not confident

The broadcasters will be the biggest example of this once they obtain some rights to the league and never utter a bad word about it again.

 

[Acheron]

I think it will, on paper is a very attractive idea having the best teams in Europe compete against each other on more regular basis. Basically they're conciving it as a Champions League on steroids.

 

[spiriticon]

That's why it'll attract a lot of younger fans/kids. It's going to turn football into WWE wrestling in terms of sporting depth.

Vincentino McPerez will want his Super Refs to deliver some sweet sweet chin music to Cristiano Ronaldo just as he is about to score a winner for Juve vs Real Madrid.

The fans will be in uproar, everybody will be talking about it and the viewership for the return leg will be double. Win.

Would be good to get Connor McGregor in to give Super League club players some lessons for a bit of trash talking too. Actually I would love to see who would have the best mic work on the United team. Probably Deano hahaha.

 

[RedDevil@84]

Once it gets legal backing, then yes.

Fans will turn up in big numbers in the stadiums and in front of TV as well. ESL's marketing team will ensure that the fans all forget about the "money mindedness" and fall into the thrill of seeing big teams clash with each other. It will be the new normal and TV money will be ridiculous. All media channels will fall head over heels to report it.

 

[groovyalbert]

At least Chelsea would finally get a difficult draw

 

[Zehner]

If it ends up coming to fruition and doesn't face some huge boycott from players and teams, it'll be a commercial success. Older fans who are deeply invested in the sport's history will be against it, but they're far outnumbered by the more casual fans who just want to see the best teams in the world play against eachother more than a handful of times per year. The ESL will make loads of money, and that's the goal.

It might be the case but there are many dynamics working against that, too. One is the law of diminishing returns. What's the uplift of including Tottenham or Atletico in this group of teams? Sure, they're huge clubs and in general (!) will attract larger audiences than, say, Leicester. But does it matter in the greater scheme of things? Because Tottenham will hardly attract any neutral that's not already attracted by Barcelona, United, Madrid, Juventus, etc.

You can transfer the same logic to players. Sancho e. g. has great marketability and if he joins a club as the star player, they can profit greatly from it. But if he joins a team that already has Messi, Ronaldo, Neymar, Mbappe and Pogba, he won't add anything marketing wise. Take Lewandowski for example - Dortmund wanted to sell him to Madrid, yet he preferred to stay another year and leave on a free to join Bayern Munich. Why? Because he feared his brand would be outshone by Messi and Cristiano in Spain.

Another dynamic is saturation. The reason why those blockbuster games draw such huge audiences is that they happen rarely. The WC is still the biggest sports event in the world because it happens every four years. We already have a very tight schedule, packed with blockbuster games. I can't remember a weekend without such matches. Will it really work to include even more of these? And what will it mean to the lesser fixtures, like Arsenal vs. Milan or something like that? Especially five years down the road? And what will it do to the brand of these clubs if they get spanked time and again? Which neutral would watch such a game then? The only ones remaining would be the actual fans of those clubs.

I don't know, I feel the biggest leverage for them is that they don't have to share the revenue with the lower levels of the pyramide and that they can ignore the competitive aspect of the competition in favor of marketing decisions since they can't go down.

 

[utdalltheway]

Once it gets legal backing, then yes.
Fans will turn up in big numbers in the stadiums and in front of TV as well. ESL's marketing team will ensure that the fans all forget about the "money mindedness" and fall into the thrill of seeing big teams clash with each other. It will be the new normal and TV money will be ridiculous. All media channels will fall head over heels to report it.

It needs to be a concerted & sustained effort to boycott this. Which it should be boycotted, not just at the local level. I'll do my part by not paying for any games on TV.
The owners will have seen that empty stadiums atmospheres can be manipulated with sounds affects etc but when we go back to having fans in seats then these ESL games need to be boycotted by the local fans too. I figure year or two of short term pain should do it.