Would the Super League be a success?

[Zehner]

Apparently, this has been a well calculated move. Not only 12 top clubs but even JP Morgan is on board with an initial loan of 3.5 billion dollar. Personally, I think there's no way they'd back this venture without market research suggesting that this is a certain success.

Then again, you could imagine that those investment bankers and superrich investors are living in a bubble and severely underestimated the intensity of the backlash. Maybe they thought the fans would rebel a bit but ultimately give in, like they always do. Maybe they thought UEFA and FIFA would give in or that the leagues wouldn't want to risk losing them? Maybe they thought Bayern, PSG and Dortmund would surrender their resistance and immediately join them? That players would happily accept not playing WC, EC and CA anymore if they get paid more?

Or did they actually anticipate all that and built their calculations solely on the Asian and American market, happily accepting with fierce hostility of domestic fans? In the end, can they actually make this happen without the European fan base and against the resistance of so many stakeholders - fans, players, coaches, associations, politicians? Will star players accept not being able to play the WC, EC and CA?

Or are we just witnessing how the billionaire owners of the biggest football clubs and their entourage have finally completely detached from reality and overplayed their hands, football's equivalency to the Fyre festival?

 

[bosnian_red]

Nope. Football is for the people and by the people. This would fail and fall behind the rest of football which will still survive, just without the 12.

 

[Niall]

I’d love to say it’ll flop and the clubs will come whimpering back with their tails between their legs. But given the clubs in question with their huge fan bases, pulling power and wealth, alongside the billions you’ve mentioned, I think it can’t not be a success in terms of what those clubs want to achieve (i.e. more and more profits).

The problem is the damage it does to the rest of the sport. It will create a schism right through football on a global level. The select few super rich getting richer playing in a private league unattainable to the rest. The gap in wealth will become a chasm and will never close, leaving most European leagues a shadow of what they are now.

The best players in the world will be cherry picked as only the ESL teams can offer bumper wages which nobody else can match. For what they’ll be paid I would expect most players will be happy to forego World Cups et al. It’s a short career after all and we’ve seen where loyalty ultimately lies with most players when offered a shit ton of money.

The money currently available to the non-ESL clubs will drop significantly given the pull of the big clubs and the TV deals they’ll sign. Sky and others want to be where the eyeballs are and that will sadly be the ESL. Other clubs with already huge debts will struggle even more and I fear many will go under. Some lower leagues may even cease to exist.

It will ruin football as we know it. I hope it can be stopped and major reform/legislation brought in to how clubs are owned/run so this kind of thing can never happen. But I’m not optimistic. These ESL clubs are so rich and powerful now they may well be able to just do whatever they want, the consequences be damned.

“We’re the best, feck the rest”

Well feck them

 

[Zehner]

I’d love to say it’ll flop and the clubs will come whimpering back with their tails between their legs. But given the clubs in question with their huge fan bases, pulling power and wealth, alongside the billions you’ve mentioned, I think it can’t not be a success in terms of what those clubs want to achieve.

The problem is the damage it does to the rest of the sport. It will create a schism right through football on a global level. The select few super rich getting richer playing in a private league unattainable to the rest. The gap in wealth will become a chasm and will never close, leaving most European leagues a shadow of what they are now.

The best players in the world will be cherry picked as only the ESL teams can offer bumper wages which nobody else can match. For what they’ll be paid I would expect most players will be happy to forego World Cups et al. It’s a short career after all and we’ve seen where loyalty ultimately lies with most players when offered a shit ton of money.

The money currently available to the non-ESL clubs will drop significantly given the pull of the big clubs and the TV deals they’ll sign. Sky and others want to be where the eyeballs are and that will sadly be the ESL. Other clubs with already huge debts will struggle even more and I fear many will go under. Some lower leagues may even cease to exist.

It will ruin football as we know it. I hope it can be stopped and major reform/legislation brought in to how clubs are owned/run so this kind of thing can never happen. But I’m not optimistic. These ESL clubs are so rich and powerful now they may well be able to just do whatever they want, the consequences be damned.

“We’re the best, feck the rest”

Well feck them

That's what I fear, too. But on the other hand, the world cup is still the by far biggest brand in world football. Not only in Europe, but especially in South America and as far as I know in Asia, too. If the players of the teams in question are expelled from this.. it's actually unthinkable. And the ESL can impossibly hold a world cup of their own since they're only 15-20 teams - and every team that would join them on top of that would also be excluded from the UEFA/FIFA framework.

Also, I highly doubt domestic fans who don't support any of the clubs in question would turn their attention towards the ESL. If there's one thing I noticed in recent years then that in spite of globalisation, football fans are still very focused on their own club and its domestic league. You can observe so much ignorance for other countries and clubs. Personally, I watch more "foreign" than domestic football but I'm vastly outnumbered among my friends.

Moreover, they're still a very small number. 12 clubs isn't much and some of those are already a joke for a league like this. They can fill it up but who could join them without watering down the competition? Especially if Bayern and PSG refuse to do so. There are already talks that City wants to back out and Chelsea apparently only joined out of fear of missing out. If we could convince City and Chelsea to leave the circle, we could maybe prevent them from reaching the critical mass.

What's also to consider: How long until the ESL will wear off? Atletico - Arsenal sounds like a decent game but is it if the standard goes something like Barcelona - Juventus?

 

[RedDevilCanuck]

North Americans won't get behind this like many think.

8 pm European kickoffs are 3 pm eastern time. Afternoon kickoffs are as early as 7:30 am.

These times won't generate numbers outside the hard-core fan.

Also, north Americans wouldn't be.fully on board until an American player becomes as good as Neymar or Mbappe.

I can't speak for Asia or Africa although I'm sure the kickoff times in Asia would also be a problem.

 

[Ixion]

North Americans won't get behind this like many think.

8 pm European kickoffs are 3 pm eastern time. Afternoon kickoffs are as early as 7:30 am.

These times won't generate numbers outside the hard-core fan.

Also, north Americans wouldn't be.fully on board until an American player becomes as good as Neymar or Mbappe.

I can't speak for Asia or Africa although I'm sure the kickoff times in Asia would also be a problem.

Well you see, that's where playing "home" games abroad will come in. Just as it happens in the NFL, once these owners are the ones in charge of the rules it will inevitably happen here.

 

[hobbers]

Obviously it wouldn't be a success.

You don't even need half a brain to understand why a "competition" that doesn't reward or encourage success, or punish failure, won't be entertaining. And I dont just mean for legacy fans. From the outset it's a stale product that I think would end up flopping miserably within a few years in global markets. Especially America. America will not buy into this SL at all on the sort of scale I think they're banking on.

Glorified friendly league that never evolves and that encourages club owners to not invest in improving their playing squads.

 

[RedRonaldo]

It won't be success based on revenue/support from local fans, but sadly it will be success based on revenue from huge overseas fan base and TV money. Take NBA for example, in China alone there are around 800 million viewers in a season, which worth approx 4 billion.

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

Yes. A runaway and unparalleled success. That’s the problem.

 

[Buster15]

In my view, we first need to define success.
At the moment, the Champions League is the most prestigious competition, above the Premier League.
And it is open to all the leading UEFA leagues.
And so the proposed ESL needs at a minimum to be as successful as the CL, financially and and as desirable to compete in.

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

Obviously it wouldn't be a success.

You don't even need half a brain to understand why a "competition" that doesn't reward or encourage success, or punish failure, won't be entertaining. And I dont just mean for legacy fans. From the outset it's a stale product that I think would end up flopping miserably within a few years in global markets. Especially America. America will not buy into this SL at all on the sort of scale I think they're banking on.

Glorified friendly league that never evolves and that encourages club owners to not invest in improving their playing squads.

The founders metric is profitability. It would be an unqualified success. It’s a risk free suggestion.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Apparently, this has been a well calculated move. Not only 12 top clubs but even JP Morgan is on board with an initial loan of 3.5 billion dollar. Personally, I think there's no way they'd back this venture without market research suggesting that this is a certain success.

Then again, you could imagine that those investment bankers and superrich investors are living in a bubble and severely underestimated the intensity of the backlash. Maybe they thought the fans would rebel a bit but ultimately give in, like they always do. Maybe they thought UEFA and FIFA would give in or that the leagues wouldn't want to risk losing them? Maybe they thought Bayern, PSG and Dortmund would surrender their resistance and immediately join them? That players would happily accept not playing WC, EC and CA anymore if they get paid more?

Or did they actually anticipate all that and built their calculations solely on the Asian and American market, happily accepting with fierce hostility of domestic fans? In the end, can they actually make this happen without the European fan base and against the resistance of so many stakeholders - fans, players, coaches, associations, politicians? Will star players accept not being able to play the WC, EC and CA?

Or are we just witnessing how the billionaire owners of the biggest football clubs and their entourage have finally completely detached from reality and overplayed their hands, football's equivalency to the Fyre festival?

When you’ve seen how badly the Glazers have run just one football club it’s not a big stretch to assume they’re capable of making catastrophic decisions about a whole bunch of clubs.

 

[RexHamilton]

It'll be such a success that in 20 years, the people who will have grown up watching such a league will laugh at the reaction of Gary Neville and the likes when they see it replayed. When the Super League becomes the norm, the idea that these franchises owed anything to their leagues and the lower leagues will be laughable.

I dread the thought.

 

[golden_blunder]

I can’t believe they would get financial backing without having interviewed the fans. Did they just work off assumptions?

 

[Ixion]

I can’t believe they would get financial backing without having interviewed the fans. Did they just work off assumptions?

It is sort of like the Tories just smashing through a shitty Brexit deal and knowing people will just get used to it/accept it no matter how shitty it is because there's no alternative.

 

[bond19821982]

I’d love to say it’ll flop and the clubs will come whimpering back with their tails between their legs. But given the clubs in question with their huge fan bases, pulling power and wealth, alongside the billions you’ve mentioned, I think it can’t not be a success in terms of what those clubs want to achieve.

The problem is the damage it does to the rest of the sport. It will create a schism right through football on a global level. The select few super rich getting richer playing in a private league unattainable to the rest. The gap in wealth will become a chasm and will never close, leaving most European leagues a shadow of what they are now.

The best players in the world will be cherry picked as only the ESL teams can offer bumper wages which nobody else can match. For what they’ll be paid I would expect most players will be happy to forego World Cups et al. It’s a short career after all and we’ve seen where loyalty ultimately lies with most players when offered a shit ton of money.

The money currently available to the non-ESL clubs will drop significantly given the pull of the big clubs and the TV deals they’ll sign. Sky and others want to be where the eyeballs are and that will sadly be the ESL. Other clubs with already huge debts will struggle even more and I fear many will go under. Some lower leagues may even cease to exist.

It will ruin football as we know it. I hope it can be stopped and major reform/legislation brought in to how clubs are owned/run so this kind of thing can never happen. But I’m not optimistic. These ESL clubs are so rich and powerful now they may well be able to just do whatever they want, the consequences be damned.

“We’re the best, feck the rest”

Well feck them

I just hope we can find a middle ground. ESL is a great idea but I just don't like the way its implemented. It has to made open to all via merit.

 

[Sweet Square]

It's most likely going to be shite but also a massive success.

 

[Siorac]

When you’ve seen how badly the Glazers have run just one football club it’s not a big stretch to assume they’re capable of making catastrophic decisions about a whole bunch of clubs.

Have they run it badly though?

The mistake you're making here is that you're evaluating them from a sporting perspective. But they keep reaping massive dividends from the club every year - in that sense, they've been enormously successful.

That's what matters for this super league nonsense, too.

 

[Thunderhead]

It's mostly likely going to be shite but also a massive success.

yep, I was just about to post exactly this

 

[sun_tzu]

If it happens its going to be subjective as to if its a success or not - but from a financial perspective for thise involved id say yes on that metric for that sub set its going to be a ma$$iv€ $ucc£$$

 

[lysglimt]

I can't even recall the last time I watched an entire C.L-game where United wasn't involved

 

[slored1]

Don't know really. In the short term, obviously. The people will watch it, as it is very exciting to have games like Real Madrid - Juventus and Barcelona - Man City at the same time or in a short space of time.

The question then becomes, what happens when the games become irrelevant? Milan - Arsenal are the bottom two clubs in their respectable groups, who is going to watch that? Or Roma (if they are invited) vs Tottenham. Nobody cares about the losers, if there are no consequences to them being bad (the relegation battle, for example is fun in my opinion). It then again becomes only the top 8 competing, and in the end they probably form another Super League, as the bottom 5 become irrelevant again. Also, which player is joining the bad clubs in this case - the best always want to play for the best. It doesn't help the likes of Arsenal, Spurs or Milan at all, Madrid or Barcelona will always prevail.

All in all, it could fail, but I'm sure people will want to watch it. Especially the younger public, with the attention span of a goldfish, but when they will get bored, the Super League becomes pointless. The "legacy fans" are being severely undervalued in my opinion, as they/we started watching football because of the beauty of the game and because we love our teams. I don't understand the minds of these bureaucrats, do they think they can force people into liking the sport?

 

[spiriticon]

For the first three years yes, after that the novelty has worn off and viewership will decline.

That is what happens with predictable reality TV, like Love Island, X-Factor and WWE

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Have they run it badly though?

The mistake you're making here is that you're evaluating them from a sporting perspective. But they keep reaping massive dividends from the club every year - in that sense, they've been enormously successful.

That's what matters for this super league nonsense, too.

They’ve wasted a hell of a lot of money on a string of obviously bad managerial appointments, allowing those managers to throw good money after bad.

We’re clearly not a well run football club. So many poor decisions made during their stewardship once their tremendous good fortune in buying a club with SAF in charge came to an end. So it wouldn’t surprise me at all if this latest decision is just as poorly thought through as hiring an expensive toxic has been like Mourinho.

 

[Siorac]

The people will watch it, as it is very exciting to have games like Real Madrid - Juventus and Barcelona - Man City at the same time or in a short space of time.

Only if there's something at stake. It's going to become mundane really fast.

 

[Crashoutcassius]

if they are given free reign it will be a success. there is a growing middle class in the target countries that can be a big pie. this will have a reach that nfl etc has only dreamed of. those kids wont care if the stadium is half empty

 

[tenpoless]

Events that happen once/twice in X years will happen every week.

Good luck with that. Soon all the big matches will mean feck all.

Just play PES/FIFA instead.

 

[Nicolarra90]

If teams go all for it then of course it would be.
All the arguments about it getting repetitive... Well we've been playing liverpool at least twice a year for over 100 years... Is it repetitive?

I'm actually not convinced by the ESL, but when I was watching the match against burnley the same day I was actually thinking "what a chore this is". Watching one team wanting to play against a team full of anti football is just really anticlimactic.

UCL also needs change, since if we had the same route than Chelsea, we could have been in the semifinals too. Of course that's the luck of the draw, but can be a bit unfair.

And the new proposal of UCL is not great either.

Probably the answer is something middle ground. I'd give qualification to the UCL maybe to the top 15 clubs of the coef ranking, and make the Europa League more competitive and important, and giving the last UCL spot to the champion.

 

[spiriticon]

If teams go all for it then of course it would be.
All the arguments about it getting repetitive... Well we've been playing liverpool at least twice a year for over 100 years... Is it repetitive?

I'm actually not convinced by the ESL, but when I was watching the match against burnley the same day I was actually thinking "what a chore this is". Watching one team wanting to play against a team full of anti football is just really anticlimactic.

UCL also needs change, since if we had the same route than Chelsea, we could have been in the semifinals too. Of course that's the luck of the draw, but can be a bit unfair.

And the new proposal of UCL is not great either.

Probably the answer is something middle ground. I'd give qualification to the UCL maybe to the top 15 clubs of the coef ranking, and make the Europa League more competitive and important, and giving the last UCL spot to the champion.

No because there's history of trying to outdo each other in terms of title history in European Cups and League titles won. But we won't be competing in those anymore.

Who gives a feck about how many European Super Leagues you've won? Nobody. Likewise, I don't care how many International Champion Cups are won in preseason even though United play the likes of Real, Inter, Juve etc, so I don't watch it unless it happens to be on when I have free time.

 

[hubbuh]

Have they run it badly though?

The mistake you're making here is that you're evaluating them from a sporting perspective. But they keep reaping massive dividends from the club every year - in that sense, they've been enormously successful.

That's what matters for this super league nonsense, too.

By all accounts the club has been playing catch up with our rivals in almost every department. The scouting department, the statistical analysis department, the training facilities, the stadium, the academy etc. Man Utd is a huge, successful club because of the success that came before them and when they arrived due to SAF. They are living off of the cream that Fergie created. They won the lottery when they acquired a United-led Fergie.

 

[harms]

Obviously it wouldn't be a success.

You don't even need half a brain to understand why a "competition" that doesn't reward or encourage success, or punish failure, won't be entertaining. And I dont just mean for legacy fans. From the outset it's a stale product that I think would end up flopping miserably within a few years in global markets. Especially America. America will not buy into this SL at all on the sort of scale I think they're banking on.

Glorified friendly league that never evolves and that encourages club owners to not invest in improving their playing squads.

It just so happens that they didn't have even one person with half a brain on board? This competition rewards success, just like any other competition does — you can win it, you'll get a trophy as well as a recognition. The issue is that it doesn't really punish failure, but this doesn't really matter for those who fight for the win.

This model works in many different sports and the competitiveness inside the league doesn't really struggle. That's not to say that I support it, I don't — but I just hate half-arsed arguments with no thought or time put into them.

 

[hobbers]

It just so happens that they didn't have even one person with half a brain on board? This competition rewards success, just like any other competition does — you can win it, you'll get a trophy as well as a recognition. The issue is that it doesn't really punish failure, but this doesn't really matter for those who fight for the win.

This model works in many different sports and the competitiveness inside the league doesn't really struggle. That's not to say that I support it, I don't — but I just hate half-arsed arguments with no thought or time put into them.

It doesn't reward success. The trophy has no history and the prize money for winning, compared to taking part, is negligible.

It's a participation league not a competition. That will immediately be reflected in how the club owners define "success" and obviously negatively affect their approach to spending to improve the playing squad (i.e. they won't, other than galactico inter-club transfers for the benefit of media hype) and on setting no targets for managers etc.

The premier league and champions league have only got football to this ridiculously high point because they are dynamic and in constant flux. Because Liverpool can be dominant one year and crap the next. Because Monaco and Dortmund can reach the CL final. Because Leicester can win the title. The pressure on managers and clubs to achieve success is driven by the usually severe financial implications for not meeting their targets. That sense of jeopardy is absolutely crucial in the entertainment factor. You can put as many midweek United vs Real and Barca vs Liverpool matches on as you like, if they're not playing for anything tangible it will get rancidly stale within the space of two years.

This isn't a half-arsed argument, it's actually the single strongest argument as to why this league is doomed to fail, even if it goes ahead. The yanks on the SL board do not understand any of this because they lack the fundamental common sense and empathy to figure out what has made football the biggest sport in the world in the first place, and has kept their piddling little franchise sports in the shadows.

 

[Revan]

I can’t believe they would get financial backing without having interviewed the fans. Did they just work off assumptions?

It is hard to imagine, that they did not do any analysis for this.

It also depends what you mean by fans. If you mean, local fans, they are not near as relevant as you are making it (for this to be a success). If it is fans in general, and they are wrong, then yes, they will be screwed, and in a few years they will be begging UEFA and co for forgiveness (and fecking PSG will have more UCLs than us).

 

[JPRouve]

I think that it would be a success if they have top players. Neutrals will watch it, a lot of diehard fans will too and a minority of diehard will abandon their clubs out of disgust but overall actual fans are a minority in football most eyeballs belong to neutrals. Now I do think that they made hard on themselves by backstabbing everyone instead of being forthcoming with their plan and allow everyone to deal with it, it could have been seen as the football version of Sanzar's Super Rugby.

 

[Annihilate Now!]

Had this discussion with the podcast chaps... Do you think that winning the first or second ESL (basically before it builds up its own history) will mean as much/feel just as special/incredible as winning the Champions League.

I said no - because there's no history to it. But others pointed out that history of the competition doesn't matter vs. history of the teams + difficult of winning it.

 

[golden_blunder]

It is hard to imagine, that they did not do any analysis for this.

It also depends what you mean by fans. If you mean, local fans, they are not near as relevant as you are making it (for this to be a success). If it is fans in general, and they are wrong, then yes, they will be screwed, and in a few years they will be begging UEFA and co for forgiveness (and fecking PSG will have more UCLs than us).

I’m gonna take a guess and say they checked with each other, made a load of assumptions and didn’t question any fans. For if they did we surely would have heard about it

 

[shaky]

So what happens after 3 or 4 games when we are down to 3 teams challenging for the ESL title? Arsenal are sitting bottom of the table with one point. What motivation is there for them to care about their remaining games when they still have domestic trophies to contend for? Why wouldn't they just chuck their reserve team out in the remaining ESL fixtures so they can concentrate on other things? Who wants to watch a league where half the teams give up on taking it seriously after a handful of games?

 

[golden_blunder]

Had this discussion with the podcast chaps... Do you think that winning the first or second ESL (basically before it builds up its own history) will mean as much/feel just as special/incredible as winning the Champions League.

I said no - because there's no history to it. But others pointed out that history of the competition doesn't matter vs. history of the teams + difficult of winning it.

It’ll be like winning a club World Cup, sounds fancy but means the same as a glorified friendly

 

[Dave Smith]

I can’t believe they would get financial backing without having interviewed the fans. Did they just work off assumptions?

No, they probably worked off the US sports model and thought they could apply it to 'soccer'.

 

[JPRouve]

Had this discussion with the podcast chaps... Do you think that winning the first or second ESL (basically before it builds up its own history) will mean as much/feel just as special/incredible as winning the Champions League.

I said no - because there's no history to it. But others pointed out that history of the competition doesn't matter vs. history of the teams + difficult of winning it.

It's comparable to the first for all competitions. In reality teams and players will be happy to win it because it's a competition and they are competitors, they celebrate a victory on the training pitch. Then history is by definition in the past, I don't think that the first edition of a competition where the best teams face each others will be seen as a joke after the 15th edition, for me taht's the perpective that we need to keep in mind, we are acting as if the competitions that we love never had a first edition. Uruguay winning the first Jules Rimet trophy is still respected by football fans that are into football history.