donkeyfish
Full Member
It's a decomposition, just as any other analysis. It tries to separate the two cases of not scoring and not creating with not scoring and creating. Two meaningfully different scenarios.Of course, but what really counts is goals for and goals against. Not potential goals for and goals against that statistically were flukes. We enter the realm of the insane when we start making judgements about actual things that happened and whether or not they're a true representation of statistic normality. The fact is that you either score or don't. If you score lots of goals, you have a better chance of scoring lots of goals in the immediate future. If you almost score a goal, that has no bearing on anything. It's just a team that can't finish but might "click" if some non-tangible elements align.
Since a chance is a necessary but not sufficient condition to score, barring a few exceptions.