Thanks. I know the information is available, I'm saying Remain should have been drilling down into it, what companies, where, whose jobs and shoving it down people's throats.Jeremy Corbyn - Not Not Labour Party(?), not a Communist (BBC)
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Thanks. I know the information is available, I'm saying Remain should have been drilling down into it, what companies, where, whose jobs and shoving it down people's throats.A good two thirds or so of Labour voters did opt for Remain, but a lot of those voters will stay with Labour provided they don't go full Farage-Brexit because Labour are just about their only viable option unless they want to waste a vote on the Lib Dems, excepting the few constituencies where the Lib Dems are competitive. In this sense Labour can afford to be sort of for Brexit, without alienating their voters. We saw this last year when a lot of young liberal Remainers turned out for them in record numbers, in spite of the fact Corbyn was essentially arguing for an end to freedom of movement.
The problem is that Labour will lose a good portion of their Leave voters if they straight up intend to ignore the Brexit vote. There are a lot of voters in Britain who don't feel they're being listened, and the old Labour approach of tentatively telling them they're wrong while saying you'll maybe do something about their concerns while not doing anything about their concerns at all probably won't work. These people are disillusioned and because of a direct media agenda have largely blamed a lot of their woes on the EU as an organisation. There's the potential for Corbyn to be hit quite badly if he actively rails against Brexit. Even though it's clearly the sensible position to adopt. In this sense he's being a lot less honest than people give him credit for, but a lot more savvy at the same time.
The problem is that Labour will lose a good portion of their Leave voters if they straight up intend to ignore the Brexit vote. There are a lot of voters in Britain who don't feel they're being listened, and the old Labour approach of tentatively telling them they're wrong while saying you'll maybe do something about their concerns while not doing anything about their concerns at all probably won't work. These people are disillusioned and because of a direct media agenda have largely blamed a lot of their woes on the EU as an organisation. There's the potential for Corbyn to be hit quite badly if he actively rails against Brexit. Even though it's clearly the sensible position to adopt. In this sense he's being a lot less honest than people give him credit for, but a lot more savvy at the same time.
Yeah, I don't mean to be overly defensive of Corbyn here but he's genuinely a very good campaigner. I'd say that's one of his problems as leader...he's typically at his best when he's got something close-by to focus in his energies on, because after decades of being a backbench MP he's generally been used to occasionally focusing on single issues as opposed to the larger political picture.
Momentum are very good campaigners for all the criticism they get and know how to use social media and the like to full effect. Labour also have that advantage of just having a feck-ton more members than the government, and when they can use that as well to full effect they've got an inherent advantage in that they have more people to campaign with.
Something more conciliatory. They can point out that Labour did well in places where Momentum campaigned whilst recognising that the rest of the results were awful for Labour, and that the 'us vs them' mentality (as well as Corbyn's policy) that has caused it. Going on the attack and characterising anyone that points out that the results were disappointing in the usual Momentum way just entrenches the issues.
If Labour can't win seats without huge grassroots canvassing against this horror show of a government then that's something that should really worry people.
Frankly, I've become a single issue voter in the past year and I'm not voting for a party that supports Brexit in any election so I'm done with Labour for the foreseeable future and I'm easily one of the most left wing members of this forum. If Labour are losing voters like me, and trust me they are, and not appealing to people in the centre either then they're in trouble.
Sorry, just following on from what I said before: again, I think the economic harm argument has been tried to a very significant degree and has had almost no traction.
Above I said nothing would work. And I still suspect that is the case. But the thing that hasnt really been attempted to any significant degree, either before or since the vote, was laying out the positive case for the EU. So not "leaving = economic damage", but more "look at what the EU has actually done for you" or "these are the things that the EU can do for you in the years ahead".
There has been a bit, to be fair, and it always gets shot down. What I have noticed has invariably (and rightly) been about workers' rights, and the comeback is always that the UK gave X, Y and Z rights to workers, maternity leave or whatever, without any EU decree coming down. Occasionally "your kids want to have the choice to live and work in Europe," but then I get the sense that most people in the UK think they dont want to go and work in Europe anyway because they dont speak European.
I think the main reason this argument has been largely ignored (and for the millionth time on here I again emphasise that I voted remain and would do so again) is that it is so hard to make. And that says a lot in itself. It is really hard to make a positive case for Europe. What does the future of Europe look like, honestly? Uncontrolled immigration, quota systems to relieve the pressure on Greece and Spain, continued in-fighting between the North and South over austerity, fudged and unworkable compromises. Even I can see that - and I am ready to sign up for it. But what positive? Remainers can call bullshit but at least Brexit have a compelling vision: freedom to do business with the faster growing parts of the world, which will supercharge and reinvigorate our economy and fuel emerging markets-level growth. Who cares that it makes no sense to forgo trade with your neighbours to do more with people 5000 miles away. Who cares that in order to do that trade we will have to relax standards and expose consumers to things that the EU has judged unsafe? That's just naysaying. At least there is a vision. I just dont think Remain has a vision like that. the EU isnt going anywhere. And if it is, it isnt in the UK's gift to paint that picture because it depends on Germany, mainly, and to some extent France, to accept that the EU needs fundamental, root and branch reform. Given the deal they offered before the vote it seems doubtful they will reform a single leaf, let alone roots or branches.
So to come full circle (and apologies if this is all over the place, this is a stream of consciousness) when I say nothing would work, I think I mean nothing coming from inside the UK will work. What would work would be a willingness on the EU side to reform itself - coupled with some evidence it was actually capable of doing so. Part of which would doubtless be about immigration and freedom of movement, but part of which would probably be about its dysfunctional decision-making processes.
In the absence of that it is much easier to say "if we leave we will lose jobs," "if we leave we will be poorer", "if we leave the Tories will liberalise the economy to the extent that zero hours contracts will become the norm." But as I said, people seem impervious to those arguments.
On this particular point I refer you to the "Weve all had enough of experts" comment.
I think this information has been put out there to be honest. The problem is it is by its nature speculative and people just dont believe it when it is coming from the other side.
But I completely agree how counterproductive calling people stupid and racist is. I think I have definitely fallen into that trap myself in the past. There was one book I read, which I have plugged on here at least two or three times in the past, but will continue to do because it is so, so good in terms of helping remainers like me understand what they are up against: The Road To Somewhere. Since I read that I now understand where Leavers are coming from in a way I just didnt before the vote. So now, while I still dont agree with them, I understand them better, and certainly do not think they are racist or stupid.
EDIT: sorry for the long posts in the wrong thread.
There's pretty much no evidence for this though.
I honestly don't know if Corbyn is personally for Brexit or against it. Whether that means his tactics are working, well I don't know that either. Many on the left seem to think Labour's lack of honesty is necessary and unavoidable, but I can't say it's very attractive myself.
The other 1/3 is maybe now 'Red Tory' though isn't it? And Labour need them back - particularly out in the regional cities.
Which would perhaps lead on to saying that Labour can't win until times are post-Brexit & possibly / probably post-Corbyn.
Conservative dilemmas which are not that different to Labour's really, don't seem to attract the same coverage somehow.
They're good posts even if they are in the wrong thread. Well, sigh, you could be right about experts, and thanks for introducing the word counterproductive, that is what I was trying to say.Stephen Bush put it a in interesting way -
Labour - Not enough big cities in England
Tories - Too many big cities in England
big regional differences are causing this big two away spit voting.
There might not be in terms of lost votes, but you only have to speak to 'core' Corbyn voters to hear how universal complaints are about huge parts of his platform are.
They might still consider Labour the least bad option, but the enthusiasm that was present even as recently as last year still seems to be drying up rapidly.
Yes, I think 'Remain' was much more of a 'hard sell' than they imagined. And then once the arguments get 'adversarial' in a binary-choice 2 horse race, they are definitely verging towards being 'counter-productive,' innit? Even at the level of getting the Remain vote 'out' as they say.
Cameron was a fecking disaster. Tories just brush themselves down & carry on like nothing has happened. Unless them doing that breaks down in some way at some stage, Labour have a tough job on in the strong Leave areas of which there are many. And UKIP are mainly disaffected Tories at heart (my opinion, might be wrong).
Cameron was a fecking disaster. Tories just brush themselves down & carry on like nothing has happened. Unless them doing that breaks down in some way at some stage, Labour have a tough job on in the strong Leave areas of which there are many. And UKIP are mainly disaffected Tories at heart (my opinion, might be wrong).
It’s entirely possible that the voters Corbyn’s Labour appeal to are not great at turning-out for locals.
Likely, I think. Surely his strategy is principally about getting historic non-voters out to vote for him. For those people local elections might be a bridge too far. The main thing is to get them out for a GE.
Time will tell but imo Corbyn is fishing in waters with no fish and risks losing what he already has in his boat.
I know a few people who voted for him in the primaries, who are extremely bitter.
Why should they be passionate about someone who seems so blase about an issue they care most about.
If Corbyn allows the tories to get away with their version of brexit (even support, according to Fox), he will pay dearly.
Kids. Unless there's freebies involved.
Yeah, most of Corbyn’s voters are just out for freebies for themselves, whereas the Conservatives are sensible sadists that turn out just because they enjoy punishing the poor and disabled
Well I didn't vote, will be voting for Labour in the next general and will be one of those expected to hand out the freebies.
Unfair. Tories turn out because they vote for self interest.
I'm sure many would say for their family rather than just themselves, but either way they don't get that people are interconnected and depend on each other, no single family lives in splendid isolation, immune to the world around it.
This is where Thatcher was so seductive, claiming that there was no such thing as society, just a collection of individuals, and greed is good for everyone. Even the tory-minded saw through that one in the end.
The people I know who voted Leave still believe in leave as strongly as they ever did. I live in the Midlands where the UKIP vote has gone to the Hard Brexit Tories.
Would the result still go the same if it was done now? Probably not but it wouldn't be a landslide.
OK that is true. My point was really that Tories dont vote for punishing the poor and disabled. That is just a byproduct. They vote for lower taxes for themselves (also for law and order and kicking out the foreigners of course). Im sure the post I was replying to was tongue in cheek, and therefore my reply superfluous, but in the interest of serious discussion I think it is worth noting that Tories arent evil (voting against the poor) but selfish (voting for themselves).
I dont say selfish to be emotive - I mean it in the sense in which it underpins our entire system: capitalism is predicted on the idea that people always, or principally, act out of self interest. It is the special sauce that explains the long term success of the Tory party.
I agree with most of that. Socialism, whilst seemingly a fairer world view fundamentally underestimates human nature.
Do you really believe socialism would stand even the remotest chance in a democracy if it wasn't for people voting out of self interest? If you do, personally I'd say you are massively underestimating human nature.
I've a real problem with the whole 'people who don't vote like I do, do so for reasons that aren't as wholesome as mine' thing to be honest. It kind of sums up the intellectual deficit on the left in general that's so tremendously problematic.
Among some on the left, I should say. But there really does seem to be a genuinely struggle to accept that people have honest disagreements and sincerely different outlooks on things. For many on the 'new' hard left it seems to be: you're either a good person and agree with me and votes the same way or you're a wanker who votes out of self-interest. As if there's a feeling that people are genuinely voting for other people out of some genuine desire to be evil.
It's probably why much of the debate with the Corbyn-wing of the party rarely progresses beyond accusations that someone who takes a different view is a 'Tory who should feck off'
Among some on the left, I should say. But there really does seem to be a genuinely struggle to accept that people have honest disagreements and sincerely different outlooks on things. For many on the 'new' hard left it seems to be: you're either a good person and agree with me and votes the same way or you're a wanker who votes out of self-interest. As if there's a feeling that people are genuinely voting for other people out of some genuine desire to be evil.
It's probably why much of the debate with the Corbyn-wing of the party rarely progresses beyond accusations that someone who takes a different view is a 'Tory who should feck off'
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From each according to his ability, to each according to his labour.
Conservatism or socialism the end product is the same, if you dont work you dont eat, the key difference with the two however, is that a conservative government wont throw you in prison for being a social parasite (article 209 of the Russian soviet federal socialst republic criminal code) for 2 years to starve, you get to do it in your own home for the most part.
I dont understand why people have this idea that socialism is about shoeveling money at the sick those who cant work, its almost the complete antithesis of this, if you dont contribute to the collective you dont get any benefits of the collective.
Its heartless and uncaring and can only work if followed absolutely. Which is why the half hearted attempts a hard left labour government will make are so dangerous.
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You are treating politics like sport, where there is no “right” answer about which team to support. But if politics has any true value there are right and wrong answers. Maybe the left is wrong, but politics is fundamentally a moral endeavour so it’s not surprising arguments often end with moral accusations.
And one only needs the most cursory understanding of history to realise that believing one’s actions to be morally right does not mean that they are.
I dont get why people keep disagreeing with you so aggressively, when all you do is call left wingers idiots. Who do they think they are belittling you for your opinions?
As does pure unadulterated capitalism, which is the type of capitalism rife in western societies today.
I’m a bit late to this argument, but excellent posts.
One of the problems of political discourse today is that people want to argue the toss over things that used to be self-evident. Point out that historically Labour's local election results were underwhelming and that it really isn't good enough given the crises this government lurches between each week, and some will argue the toss. Even the facts aren't facts any more. And that causes a lot of the frustration and disaffection. Whether we're pretending that we can magic up a solution to the Irish border issue suddenly or pretending that winning an election in 2005 was a worse result to losing it in 2017 because the vote share was higher, there isn't even a consensus these days over things that are evidently true or false.
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From This Week, 'are we past peak-Corbyn?' My answer would be yes, since Corbynites have created their own ceiling by hating 'centrists' even more than Tories.
It's quite difficult to assess where we are with Corbyn. On the one hand, considering the feck-ups from the Tories I think it's fair to say people who support him should be disappointed that he hasn't managed to build substantially on last year's election and start mounting consistent and noticeable polling victories over the Tories.
But at the same time, it feels like people desperate to cast him off as finished are the very same people who did so in 2016 and early 2017, and who loudly proclaimed that May would walk to an easy majority after she called her election. Corbyn, for all his many faults, is a very strong campaigner, and tends to do best when he's got something definite to work towards. Feels silly and premature to write him off after what we saw last year. Although a lot of the people writing him off have been eager to do so since day one anyway.
But at the same time, it feels like people desperate to cast him off as finished are the very same people who did so in 2016 and early 2017, and who loudly proclaimed that May would walk to an easy majority after she called her election. Corbyn, for all his many faults, is a very strong campaigner, and tends to do best when he's got something definite to work towards. Feels silly and premature to write him off after what we saw last year. Although a lot of the people writing him off have been eager to do so since day one anyway.
That's a fair point, and to add to it I'd say he can be a much stronger campaigner than expected. Where he's lacking though is 'something definite to work towards', because the biggest issue of the day is Brexit, and on that his leadership is non-existent.
I'd say it's about the same position as the last GE.