POLL: Which team is better-off after a 0-0 in the first leg of a two-leg tie?

[Siorac]

You either are on a massive wind-up or utterly clueless.

But I'll try one more time: in how many of those 691 ties was the away goal rule in place? Go on.

All of them. It was fully introduced in 1970 so it's a lot of games.

And, because you seem to be utterly and absolutely determined to deny reality: the ratio is the same when only looking at modern day Champions League as when looking at the full data. If your assertion that the modern format's last 16 ties distort the data to an extent that it renders it useless were true then we'd see actual variance - that is, the overall ratio of the first leg's away team progressing after the 0-0 should be significantly lower compared to the CL-only times. But it's not.

You're just denying reality.

 

[Siorac]

The away tie should be the one you are more likely to lose. You haven't. Great, now the remaining game is the one you are most likely to win.

Every other interpretation is confused bollocks.

It's really that simple.

 

[Adam-Utd]

I hate the away goal rule. I understand why it was made, but it doesn't make sense to me. Liverpool can now go to Germany and tie 1-1 and win on away goals. How can a team progress when there hasn't been a winner or a loser? For me, if it's 0-0 and then 1-1, then the score is tied and extra time is needed. I also think that the away goal rule should be scrapped in extra time...

Agreed, it's a rubbish way of sorting 2 teams out. You both get a home and an away leg, why does it matter where you score the most goals?.

 

[TMDaines]

I assume you're not trying to wind me up but I really struggle to understand why you don't understand it. Your sample includes round of 16 matches. It would not matter if it were 8000 matches, half of those will always be round of 16 which renders the data useless. You will find the home side will progress around 80% of the time after drawing 0-0 awayawa the round of 16, and 50% in quarter and semi finals. This is how your 65% figure comes about.

OK, I understand you. Your hypotheses is that the seeding of certain rounds biases this towards favouring the away side of the first leg. Mine would be that this is very slightly true, but seeding isn't all that meaningful after only six matches and a whole lot of circumstance contributed to the seeding.

Unfortunately for you, looking at data from onwards of 1999/2000 in the CL and 2004/05 in the EL in non-seeded rounds only, your hypothesis appears to not be supported. After a 0-0 first leg in 33 matches, the home team progressed 11 times (33.3%) and the away team 22 times (66.6%).

 

[Enigma_87]

Agreed, it's a rubbish way of sorting 2 teams out. You both get a home and an away leg, why does it matter where you score the most goals?.

It's a good way IMO. Otherwise the home team in the second leg will have advantage of playing ET and penalties at home in case of two draws. Before we had a 3rd leg on neutral ground but that of course will bring all sorts of hassle...

 

[Siorac]

It's a good way IMO. Otherwise the home team in the second leg will have advantage of playing ET and penalties at home in case of two draws. Before we had a 3rd leg on neutral ground but that of course will bring all sorts of hassle...

There's no need to play extra time, it can go straight to penalties. There is still a home advantage in the penalty shootout but nothing's perfect in life. I think that would be better than away goals and extra time.

 

[Siorac]

OK, I understand you. Your hypotheses is that the seeding of certain rounds biases this towards favouring the away side of the first leg. Mine would be that this is very slightly true, but seeding isn't all that meaningful after only six matches and a whole lot of circumstance contributed to the seeding.

Unfortunately for you, looking at data from onwards of 1999/2000 in the CL and 2004/05 in the EL in non-seeded rounds only, your hypothesis appears to not be supported. After a 0-0 first leg in 33 matches, the home team progressed 11 times (33.3%) and the away team 22 times (66.6%).

Yeah but did you control for the constellation of the Sun and Jupiter, as well as for the GDP fluctuation of Vanuatu? Otherwise your data is worthless.

 

[TMDaines]

Yeah but did you control for the constellation of the Sun and Jupiter, as well as for the GDP fluctuation of Vanuatu? Otherwise your data is worthless.

The guy had a point in fairness. I think it is a fair variable to control for, but he was still wrong based on the data set I could quickly find.

 

[Siorac]

The guy had a point in fairness. I think it is a fair variable to control for, but he was still wrong based on the data set I could quickly find.

He was wrong based on every sort of available data.

 

[Peyroteo]

I'll say it one more time.

IT IS NOT A SAMPLE. It's ALL UEFA COMPETITIONS. EVERY SINGLE TWO-LEGGED TIE THAT EVER FINISHED 0-0 IN THE FIRST LEG. Fairs' Cup, UEFA Cup, Cup Winners Cup, European Champions Cup, Champions League, Europa League. How do you not understand that? That's 691 ties in the last 50 years, across multiple different competition formats.

If you are 14 and didn't really care about the history of football then OK, I understand. But you should know that the Champions League format used to be very different. The current version of 32 teams, with it being a straight knockout tie from the last 16 has only been around since 2003/04. There was a time when there was NO seeding at all.

Am I wrong in saying home advantage used to be bigger than it is today?

I don’t have the numbers to prove it but I always had the idea it was harder to get a result away back in the 50s, 60s and 70s than it is today. Especially in Europe

I agree with you overall but the data you’re using isn’t reliable enough imo. Very interesting nevertheless though

 

[Siorac]

Am I wrong in saying home advantage used to be bigger than it is today?

I don’t have the numbers to prove it but I always had the idea it was harder to get a result away back in the 50s, 60s and 70s than it is today. Especially in Europe

I agree with you overall but the data you’re using isn’t reliable enough imo. Very interesting nevertheless though

Well, it's hard to say. Home advantage (defined as the % of home wins in European games) definitely dropped in the 90s and onwards but that coincides with the expansion of the Champions League and the exponential increase in financial inequality between the top and the rest. Real Madrid or Manchester United are clear favourites against the likes of CSKA Moscow or Levski Sofia or FC Copenhagen even away from home.

If someone has the time and inclination to compile a dataset looking at home win ratios, excluding the group stages of the CL, that would be lovely (and then compare it to the ratio with the CL group stages included, to see if it skews it in a significant way).

 

[Samid]

The away tie should be the one you are more likely to lose. You haven't. Great, now the remaining game is the one you are most likely to win.

Every other interpretation is confused bollocks.

But isn't it better to lose 3-2 away than drawing 0-0? Because the away goal counts double you can then afford to draw 1-1 in the return leg and go through on away goals.lol

 

[GlastonSpur]

I’d rather be the away side.

It’s basically a totally even game, except your goals count for more.

It isn't, because you're playing away from home.

 

[antohan]

Am I wrong in saying home advantage used to be bigger than it is today?

I don’t have the numbers to prove it but I always had the idea it was harder to get a result away back in the 50s, 60s and 70s than it is today. Especially in Europe

I agree with you overall but the data you’re using isn’t reliable enough imo. Very interesting nevertheless though

No, you are not. Several factors there:

1) Travelling being more common and easier. Clubs being more professional with arrangements and more money in the game making it less traumatic.

2) Teams used to be all-English, all-German, etc. Now they are more cosmopolitan.

3) Pretty sure standards re: pitches, sizes, safety, etc have made it more level playing field.

As an example, look at South American football which hasn't evolved as much. Home advantage is still very very significant, even if not what it used to be.

 

[antohan]

But isn't it better to lose 3-2 away than drawing 0-0? Because the away goal counts double you can then afford to draw 1-1 in the return leg and go through on away goals.lol

You got me there. Of course!

 

[strongwalker]

The first-leg home team will get the second-leg advantage of going through in the case of a score draw, giving them the better position in terms of results.

The first-let away team gets to play at home in the second-leg, giving them the home advantage to get a win in the match.

Personally, I'd rather be the first than the second. Going through in a score draw seems like the better deal. Thoughts?

Liverpool record 17/18 season:
Home: 19 matches, 12 wins, 7 draws, 0 losses
Away: 19 Matches, 9 Wins, 5 draws, 5 losses

/thread can be closed

 

[ErranMorad]

The Away team in the return leg. Due to the away goal rule the home team has to score an extra goal for every one the away team scores. That's a massive advantage.

 

[Schneckerl]

Mindblowing that this is a topic of discussion.
Some people seem to be resistant to facts.

 

[antohan]

The Away team in the return leg. Due to the away goal rule the home team has to score an extra goal for every one the away team scores. That's a massive advantage.

Yet the precedent is the away team didn't manage to score at home to begin with.

 

[Peyroteo]

Mindblowing that this is a topic of discussion.
Some people seem to be resistant to facts.

The facts shown aren’t reliable enough tbf.

Home advantage used to be bigger than it is now, that means if you look throughout history then more teams would go through with the second leg at home than they would today.

The results are skewed.

Then you take into consideration the round of 16 matches in the CL and the round of 32 matches in the Europa League and it gets even worse.

I tend to agree a 0-0 draw in the first leg is better for the away team though. In this instance I believe it was a very good result for Bayern.

 

[KirkDuyt]

It favours Livepool if you ask me.

Because that's the question here right?

 

[Spiersey]

Assume it's the CL, almost always the team that draws 0-0 away will be favourites to go through after it. I'd much rather have to win at home than avoid defeat away. Definitely have more chance of beating Barca at home than you do of avoiding defeat at the Nou Camp.

 

[adexkola]

Essentially you decided that you like the away team having an advantage (which makes no logical sense anyway), and whatever data is thrown to you, you are going with your prior belief. Definitely not a good Bayesian.

I just want to quote this because you name dropped Bayes.

 

[Andycoleno9]

I often thought about it and i simply can't decide. In one way you have home advantage, but on the other hand you must win. Other side need only to draw.
Imo quality teams would rather be away team and play on experience and weaker teams would rather be home team and play on passion.
As i said, i don't know....

 

[Dancfc]

- 1-1 in the first leg, 1-2 away win in the second leg (this is a bit surprising)

I don't think it is when you access it from a psychological POV.

I remember us being in that situation going into an away leg and we have gone through 2 times out of 3, the good thing about having to score is the home team score first it doesn't change much, which allows more freedom to attack while it's 0-0, then if you cancel out the away goal while it's 0-0 or 1-0 the psychological aspect of the tie is very much in the away teams favour as another goal has the home side with a mountain to climb.

 

[Nick7]

It favours the team that is at home in the second leg. A clean sheet, and avoiding a loss away is always favourable.

 

[B20]

The home team.

I know if our roles were reversed, I'd be feeling dead confident of sealing the deal with a win at Anfield.

 

[TMDaines]

Can we see if there is correlation between those who would rather be the home or away side drawing 0-0 in the first leg and their position on Brexit? This thread is a stunning read.

 

[ErranMorad]

Yet the precedent is the away team didn't manage to score at home to begin with.

Don't think the first leg in a 0-0 draw acts a guide to the second leg. The away team is basically starting a new game with an advantage of having the other team outscore them in order to win. It's bigger advantage than home advantage, imo.

 

[B20]

The Away team in the return leg. Due to the away goal rule the home team has to score an extra goal for every one the away team scores. That's a massive advantage.

Not a bigger advantage than playing at home

 

[B20]

Can we see if there is correlation between those who would rather be the home or away side drawing 0-0 in the first leg and their position on Brexit? This thread is a stunning read.

Indeed.

 

[breakout67]

Seems as if any result would have favoured Liverpool to some on here even if they lost. Predictions of Liverpool to slap Bayern by 3-4 goals, now that they put in a sub-par performance there is this idea that Liverpool are an unstoppable force in Europe.

The only notable win away from home Liverpool have gotten under Klopp was against City, and City had a 2-0 lead denied by a linesman who didn't know the rules.

They've lost all 3 games away from home this season and managed 1 shot on target which was a penalty. Bayern will be up for this, especially because they didn't seem to have a chance of catching Dortmund earlier in the season but have almost caught up.

 

[Brwned]

That data is useless. You cannot include round of 16 fixtures. You might as well include the Emirates cup or Slovak pre-season friendlies. I'm not being facetious here, there really isn't a point discussing this based on that sample.

I pulled together the data here looking only at the CL (i.e. since 1993) and you can filter by year or round. I've not played around with it much but it seems pretty conclusive: 60% of the return legs end with a home win, and that increases to 65% when it was a 0-0 draw in the first leg. Doesn't make much difference whether it includes the last 16 or not.

I assume you're not trying to wind me up but I really struggle to understand why you don't understand it. Your sample includes round of 16 matches. It would not matter if it were 8000 matches, half of those will always be round of 16 which renders the data useless. You will find the home side will progress around 80% of the time after drawing 0-0 awayawa the round of 16, and 50% in quarter and semi finals. This is how your 65% figure comes about.

In other words, this isn't quite true.

 

[AgentP]

Depends on the team's home form. It makes a big difference especially in Europe. Even Barca always struggles away but is super strong at home. The team that plays at home in the second leg certainly has an edge.

 

[Josh 76]

I remember the days when everyone thought 0-0 away from home was a great result. That all changed when we drew 0-0 away to Madrid after the treble year, and them got beat 2-3 at home and went out. (We were 3-0 down). That was the day Fergie realised 0-0 was the advantage to the home team and not the away team in the first leg.

 

[Revan]

I pulled together the data here looking only at the CL (i.e. since 1993) and you can filter by year or round. I've not played around with it much but it seems pretty conclusive: 60% of the return legs end with a home win, and that increases to 65% when it was a 0-0 draw in the first leg. Doesn't make much difference whether it includes the last 16 or not.

Removing matches of last 16, the results would be: Home team wins 15 times, away team wins 4 times, and team draw 4 times (in essence, away team wins). So, home team wins the tie 65% of the time, if it has drawn the first match 0-0.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

The first-leg home team will get the second-leg advantage of going through in the case of a score draw, giving them the better position in terms of results.

The first-let away team gets to play at home in the second-leg, giving them the home advantage to get a win in the match.

Personally, I'd rather be the first than the second. Going through in a score draw seems like the better deal. Thoughts?

Every fecking year the away goal rule makes people lose their minds. Would be my number one reason to get rid of the damn thing...

Anyhoo. In answer to your question, the team playing at home in the second leg is better off. Fact. Team playing at home win a much higher % of games than teams playing away. The away goal will never change this and only becomes relevant in the event of a draw. Which is a less likely result than a home victory.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Removing matches of last 16, the results would be: Home team wins 15 times, away team wins 4 times, and team draw 4 times (in essence, away team wins). So, home team wins the tie 65% of the time, if it has drawn the first match 0-0.

/Thread.

 

[Chipper]

Would rather be in Bayern's position than Liverpool's.

Wording it like that because some of these posts are confusing me where they say home or away and I don't know which leg of the tie they were talking about.

 

[kaiser1]

Its quite simple. Teams win more at home. Most teams will rather take their chances at home. That is why clubs struggle to top their CL group so they can decide the tie at home.

The chances of winning at home are higher than away. Regardless of if you are the stronger team, weaker or you are evenly paired.

Barcelona one of the strongest teams of the past decade have been very poor away but owe their dominance to the extremely good home record.
Stats support that the home team win more when they are evenly matched
If they tell any team that you only need a home win of any color. 1-0 or 7-6 to move on. Most will take it

e.g Man Utd you need a home win to qualify or Man Utd you need to draw or win away. which one will you pick?

I will take my chances with winning at home than looking for results away